1988_United_States_presidential_election_in_Tennessee

1988 United States presidential election in Tennessee

1988 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Election in Tennessee

The 1988 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 8, 1988. All 50 states and the District of Columbia were part of the 1988 United States presidential election. Tennessee voters chose 11 electors to the Electoral College, which selected the president and vice president. Tennessee was won by incumbent United States Vice President George H. W. Bush of Texas, who was running against Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. Bush ran with Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as Vice President, and Dukakis ran with Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen.

Main article: 1988 United States presidential election
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Tennessee weighed in for this election as eight points more Republican than the national average. Tennessee was the only state to vote more Republican than in 1984. As of the 2020 presidential election, this was the last time the Republican candidate carried Davidson County (home of Nashville) and Shelby County (home of Memphis), both of which have become staunch, and the only, Democratic strongholds into the 21st century.[1]

Background

The Republican presidential nominee won Tennessee in every presidential election since 1968 except for Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976.[2]

However, Republican victories in the senatorial elections of 1966 and 1970 were undone by Democratic victories in 1976 and 1984. Ned McWherter's victory in 1986 gubernatorial election also restored Democratic control since 1974. Voter identification among the Democrats fell from 42% to 32% between 1981 and 1985, while identification among the Republicans rose from 25 to 29%.[3]

Campaign

Primary

U.S. Senator Al Gore, a favorite son, won Tennessee in the Democratic primary with 72% of the vote.[4][5] Gore won 87% of the white vote.[6] The racial composition of the primary was 73% white and 27% black.[7]

Bill Brock, a former member of the U.S. Senate from Tennessee, served as the chair of Bob Dole's national campaign. McWherter served as the chair of Gore's campaign in the south.[8] 37% of white voters participated in the Republican primary.[9]

General

The regional political divide in Tennessee between the Republican eastern half and Democratic western half dated back to the American Civil War.[10] Stephanie Chivers, the director of Bush's campaign in the state, stated that they needed a 125,000 margin of victory in the eastern part of the state to counteract Democratic support in the rest of the state.[11] Both of Bush's visits in the state were in Democratic areas in order for him to be "in there with the Reagan/McWherter Democrats" according to Chivers. Quayle's five visits to the state were in the east.[12]

Peter Goelz, a Democratic politician from Kansas City, was selected to be the political director of Dukakis's campaign in the state. He did not arrive until August and he lacked knowledge about the state's politics. Chip Forrester, the executive director of the Tennessee Democratic Party, criticized Dukakis for not utilizing McWherter during the campaign despite his popularity in rural counties. McWherter and other southern governors filmed an endorsement of Dukakis at the National Governors' Conference meeting, but it was never aired on television in Tennessee.[5]

65% of white voters supported Bush while 34% supported Dukakis.[13][14] Bush received 65% of the vote in the east, 55% in the middle, and 53% in the west. Bush won 73 of the state's 95 counties, including the four most populous counties of Shelby, Davidson, Knox, and Hamilton. Dukakis failed to win any metropolitan areas. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Sasser won reelection in the concurrent senatorial election and the Democrats maintained their control of the Tennessee General Assembly despite Bush's victory.[15]

Polling

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Results

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Results by county

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[18][19]

Analysis

Most counties in Tennessee turned out for Bush, including the highly populated Shelby County and Davidson County, by narrow margins. Those two counties have never voted Republican since this election.[1]

Tennessee was the only state that Bush improved on Ronald Reagan’s 1984 vote share within, although only by 0.05%.[20] He became only the second Republican after Richard Nixon in 1972 to carry Lincoln County and Hardeman County.[21]

See also

Notes

    References

    1. [1]
      Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
    2. [2]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 202.
    3. [3]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 202-203.
    4. [4]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 10.
    5. [5]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 205.
    6. [6]
      Black & Black 1992, p. 266.
    7. [7]
      Black & Black 1992, p. 263.
    8. [8]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 204-206.
    9. [9]
      Black & Black 1992, p. 288.
    10. [10]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 201.
    11. [11]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 204.
    12. [12]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 206.
    13. [13]
      Black & Black 1992, p. 295.
    14. [14]
      Black & Black 1992, p. 335.
    15. [15]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 214-216.
    16. [16]
      Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 208.
    17. [17]
      "TN US President, November 08, 1988". Our Campaigns.
    18. [18]
      "1984 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee". Dave Leip's election atlas.
    19. [19]
      "1988 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee". Dave Leip's election atlas.
    20. [20]
      Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, p. 111 ISBN 0786422173
    21. [21]
      Menendez; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, pp. 298-303

    Works cited
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