2003_Catalan_Parliament_election

2003 Catalan regional election

2003 Catalan regional election

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The 2003 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 16 November 2003, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

Quick Facts All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia 68 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...

This election marked a change for all Catalan political parties due to Catalan president Jordi Pujol's decision not to seek a seventh term in office and to retire from active politics. The election results were a great disappointment for Pasqual Maragall's Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), which again saw Convergence and Union (CiU) winning a plurality of seats despite them winning the most votes by a margin of just 0.3%. Opinion polls earlier in the year had predicted a much larger victory for Maragall, but his lead over CiU had begun to narrow as the election grew nearer. Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) was perceived as the true victor of the election, doubling its 1999 figures and scoring its best result in its recent history up to that point, both in terms of seats (23 of 135) and votes (16.4%), up from 11 seats and 8.7%.

As Pujol's successor Artur Mas did not win a majority large enough to renew his party pact with the People's Party (PP), which had kept Pujol in power since 1995, an alliance between the PSC, ERC and ICV–EUiA resulted in a Catalan "tripartite" government. Thus, despite losing 10 seats and 150,000 votes compared to the 1999 election, Maragall became the first centre-left president of the Government of Catalonia, ending with 23 uninterrupted years of CiU rule.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Transitory Provision Fourth of the Statute established a specific electoral procedure for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, of application for as long as a regional electoral law was not approved, to be supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[1]

More information Seats, Constituencies ...

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[2]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 17 October 1999, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 17 October 2003. The election was required to be called no later than 2 October 2003, with it taking place on the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 1 December 2003.[1]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[3][4]

Background

In the 1999 election, and as a result of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)'s growth, the Catalan nationalist Convergence and Union (CiU) had lost the vote share in a regional election for the first time ever, but clung on to retain the largest amount of seats due to the disproportionate allocation of seats in Girona, Lleida and Tarragona compared to Barcelona. Through to the support of the People's Party (PP), Jordi Pujol had been able to be re-elected to a sixth term in office with a slim majority of 68 to the 67 seats commanded by the left-from-centre opposition.

Despite Pujol's personal approval ratings remaining high until the end of his term, speculation on his possible retirement (which he confirmed on 1 April 2001),[5] internal disputes between Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) over the future of the alliance[6]—which resulted in CiU being turned into a full-fledged party federation in order to ensure its continuity in the post-Pujol era[7]—and a desire for change after 23 years in power had resulted in CiU trailing the PSC in opinion polls for the entire legislature, with a lead that was nearly into the double digits by mid-to-late 2002. From mid-2003, however, the Socialist lead had begun to narrow to the point that chances for a possible reenactment of the 1999 tight race remained high. The retirement of Pujol as CiU candidate paved the way for Artur Mas, the then chief minister (Catalan: Conseller en cap), to replace him as the culmination of a long successory process.[8]

Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) had been in an almost continuous growth since the 1988 election, becoming a political force able to pierce through the dominant two-party system in Catalonia. Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) and United and Alternative Left (EUiA) had run separately in the previous election, but ahead of the 2003 election joined within the ICV–EA coalition.

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 23 September 2003, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia.[9] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[10][11][12]

More information Groups, Parties ...

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[15]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

More information Candidacy, Parties and alliances ...

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 17 October 1999 to 16 November 2003, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Results

Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...
More information Popular vote ...
More information Seats ...

Distribution by constituency

More information Constituency, PSC–CpC ...

Aftermath

More information Ballot →, 16 December 2003 ...

Notes

  1. Results for IC–V (2.51%, 3 seats) and EUiA (1.42%, 0 seats) in the 1999 election.
  2. Within ICV.
  3. Quick count.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. [p 1]
    "CiU guanyaria amb 47 diputats enfront dels 42 del PSC, segons una mostra de l'escrutini". CCMA (in Catalan). 16 November 2003.
  2. [p 2]
    "Sondejos". Generalitat de Catalunya (in Catalan). Archived from the original on 3 January 2015. Retrieved 12 December 2017.
  3. [p 3]
    "Empatados ante la semana final". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 November 2003.
  4. [p 4]
    "Encuestas preelectorales publicadas. Cataluña 2003". www.bcn.cat (in Spanish). 10 November 2003.
  5. [p 5]
    "Los socialistas amplían a 5,6 puntos la ventaja sobre CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 8 November 2003.
  6. [p 6]
    "PSC y CiU, en situación de empate técnico". El País (in Spanish). 9 November 2003.
  7. [p 7]
    "Informe estudio El País. Cataluña. Noviembre 2003" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 9 November 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 August 2005. Retrieved 23 February 2021.
  8. [p 8]
    "El PSC aventaja en 5,5 puntos a CiU, según un sondeo de Opina para la SER". El País (in Spanish). 1 November 2003.
  9. [p 9]
    "Elecciones autonómicas "Catalunya"". Infortécnica (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
  10. [P 10]
    "ERC tendrá la llave del Gobierno catalán ya que puede dar la mayoría a CiU o al PSC". ABC (in Spanish). 2 November 2003.
  11. [P 11]
    "Maragall es el favorito para gobernar Cataluña". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
  12. [P 12]
    "Pulsómetro Elecciones en Cataluña". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 31 October 2003. Archived from the original on 7 February 2004. Retrieved 23 February 2021.
  13. [P 13]
    "El PSC aventaja en 5,5 puntos a CiU, según una encuesta de Opina para la SER". El País (in Spanish). 1 November 2003.
  14. [P 14]
    "Preelectoral de Cataluña, elecciones autonómicas, 2003 (Estudio nº 2543. Octubre 2003)". CIS (in Spanish). 7 November 2003.
  15. [P 15]
    "Estudio CIS nº 2543. Ficha técnica" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 November 2003.
  16. [P 16]
    "CiU aventaja al PSC en un escaño, según el CIS, pero no logra mayoría ni con ERC ni con el PP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 November 2003.
  17. [P 17]
    "La ventaja del PSC sobre CiU se recorta de 7 a 4 puntos desde junio". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 5 October 2003.
  18. [P 18]
    "Encuesta de CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 7 October 2003.
  19. [P 19]
    "Un sondeo recorta la ventaja del PSC sobre CiU, que es de cuatro puntos". El País (in Spanish). 6 October 2003.
  20. [P 20]
    "Una encuesta de CiU le da dos escaños más que al PSC". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 October 2003.
  21. [P 21]
    "Ligera ventaja de Maragall sobre Mas al iniciarse la carrera electoral catalana". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 September 2003.
  22. [P 22]
    "Mínima ventaja de Maragall sobre Mas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 13 July 2003.
  23. [P 23]
    "El PSC saca 7,2 puntos a CiU pero Mas sigue avanzando en imagen". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 6 July 2003.
  24. [P 24]
    "Cuestión de ejes". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 22 June 2003.
  25. [P 25]
    "El PSC le saca 9 puntos a CiU pero Mas recorta terreno en imagen". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 6 April 2003.
  26. [P 26]
    "Una encuesta sitúa al PSC y CiU muy igualados". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2 April 2003.
  27. [P 27]
    Rusiñol, Pere (3 April 2003). "CiU ha perdido seis puntos frente al PSC en un año, según el Instituto Opina". El País (in Spanish).
  28. [P 28]
    "El PSC conserva desde octubre una ventaja de 8 puntos sobre CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 22 January 2003.
  29. [P 29]
    "Maragall parte con una sólida ventaja". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 19 January 2003.
  30. [P 30]
    "Una encuesta de CiU dice que el PSC ganaría por un escaño". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 18 January 2003.
  31. [P 31]
    "El PSC ganaría las elecciones autonómicas, según una encuesta de CiU". El País (in Spanish). 18 January 2003.
  32. [P 32]
    "Una encuesta de CiU da ganador a Maragall en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 18 January 2003.
  33. [P 33]
    "El PSC aventaja a CiU en 8,5 puntos, según una encuesta de los socialistas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 31 December 2002.
  34. [P 34]
    "Un sondeo del PSC indica que mantiene sobre CiU una ventaja de 8 puntos para las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 31 December 2002.
  35. [P 35]
    "Un sondeo del PSC lo sitúa ocho puntos por encima de CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 31 December 2002.
  36. [P 36]
    "El PSC se consolida como seguro ganador y ERC sube a costa de CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 16 October 2002.
  37. [P 37]
    "Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de Cataluña (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
  38. [P 38]
    "El CIS sitúa a CiU por delante del PSC". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
  39. [P 39]
    "El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
  40. [P 40]
    "El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
  41. [P 41]
    "Los socialistas aumentan hasta 7,5 puntos su ventaja sobre CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 3 July 2002.
  42. [P 42]
    "El PSC recurre a su último sondeo para pronosticar la "caída libre" de CiU y de Mas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 June 2002.
  43. [P 43]
    "El PSC superaría a CiU en 7,5 puntos, según una encuesta electoral". El País (in Spanish). 4 July 2002.
  44. [P 44]
    "El Periódico 28/04/2002". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 28 April 2002.
  45. [P 45]
    "Un macrosondeo del Instituto Opina da por primera vez la victoria a Mas sobre Maragall". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 23 April 2002.
  46. [P 46]
    "Una encuesta encargada por CiU le da un punto de ventaja sobre los socialistas". El País (in Spanish). 23 April 2002.
  47. [P 47]
    "La fusión fría". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 April 2002.
  48. [P 48]
    "Un sondeo del PSC amplía a siete puntos su ventaja sobre CiU en unas autonómicas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 March 2002.
  49. [P 49]
    "El PSC se despega de CiU y le saca ahora 3,8 puntos de ventaja". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 17 February 2002.
  50. [P 50]
    "Los votantes de Cir valoran más a Maragall que a Artur Mas". ABC (in Spanish). 28 December 2001.
  51. [P 51]
    "Un sondeo del PSC le da entre tres y cinco puntos de ventaja sobre CiU". El País (in Spanish). 18 December 2001.
  52. [P 52]
    "El PSC y CiU siguen prácticamente empatados en estimación de voto". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 4 November 2001.
  53. [P 53]
    "Carod advierte a CiU de que se le acaba el tiempo para cambiar de aliado". El País (in Spanish). 23 October 2001.
  54. [P 54]
    "El PSC pide a Maragall que proyecte imagen de president ante el inicio de retirada de Pujol". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 23 October 2001.
  55. [P 55]
    "Un sondeo del Gobierno sitúa a Mas como el vencedor del debate de la censura". El País (in Spanish). 24 October 2001.
  56. [P 56]
    "El voto melancólico". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 13 August 2001.
  57. [P 57]
    "El voto frío". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 August 2001.
  58. [P 58]
    "El voto selecto". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 15 August 2001.
  59. [P 59]
    "El voto emocional". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 August 2001.
  60. [P 60]
    "El voto sigiloso". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 17 August 2001.
  61. [P 61]
    "CiU recupera terreno y empata con el PSC en estimación de voto". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 10 July 2001.
  62. [P 62]
    "El PSC moderniza su imagen para resaltar su definición como partido catalanista". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 July 2001.
  63. [P 63]
    "Mas recorta 4 puntos la ventaja de Maragall, que todavía le lleva 14, según un sondeo del PSC". El País (in Spanish). 14 July 2001.
  64. [P 64]
    "El PSC sacaría cuatro puntos a CiU en unas elecciones autonómicas". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 30 April 2001.
  65. [P 65]
    "Situación social y política de Cataluña, XVI (Estudio nº 2410. Marzo 2001)". CIS (in Spanish). 23 May 2001.
  66. [P 66]
    "Estudio CIS nº 2410. Ficha técnica" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 23 May 2001.
  67. [P 67]
    "CiU y PSC van empatados, según el CIS". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 24 May 2001.
  68. [P 68]
    "El PSC aventaja en tres puntos a CiU, aunque empatan en número de escaños". ABC (in Spanish). 24 May 2001.
  69. [P 69]
    "El PSC cree que la candidatura de Mas dispara las opciones de victoria de Maragall". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 10 April 2001.
  70. [P 70]
    Rusiñol, Pere (10 April 2001). "Maragall consolida su ventaja sobre Mas y le supera en 20 puntos, según una encuesta del PSC". El País (in Spanish).
  71. [P 71]
    "Maragall superaría a Mas en más de 20 puntos, según una encuesta encargada por el PSC". El País (in Spanish). 10 April 2001.
  72. [P 72]
    "El PSC superaría en un punto a CiU de celebrarse ahora los comicios al Parlament". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 12 February 2001.
  73. [P 73]
    "Sólo Pujol puede frenar a Maragall". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 November 2000.
  74. [P 74]
    "Ligero avance del PSC en las generales". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 November 2000.
  75. [P 75]
    "CiU y PSC empatarían de nuevo si se celebrasen elecciones ahora". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 11 November 2000.
Other
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