Democrat Party

The Democrat Party, led by Banyat Bantadtan, did not seriously expect to defeat the coalition of the other two parties, but hoped to win 200 seats, which would have been a gain of 70 seats. However, intra-party conflicts between Banyat's southern faction and the Bangkok faction led by Abhisit Vejjajiva made this goal appear even less realistic. The Democrats also developed a populist agenda, promising more jobs, free education and health care, and combating crime and corruption. However, the party refused to give details of their policies.^[1]

The TRT's landslide victory cast doubt over the future of both party leaders, and Banyat resigned as Democrat Party leader immediately after the election. Abhisit Vejjajiva, Banyat's successor, said: "It will take a long time to revive the party because we need to look four years ahead and consider how to stay in the hearts of the people."

Thai Rak Thai

The Thai Rak Thai party was seeking to win an absolute majority in its own right, something no political party had ever achieved in Thailand at a genuinely free election. A coalition of other parties and civil society groups was formed to prevent this, arguing that Thaksin already had too much power and that giving him an absolute parliamentary majority would encourage what they alleged were his authoritarian tendencies. Prominent academic Kasem Sirisamphan, for example, accused Thaksin of running a "parliamentary dictatorship" and said that "people do not want a billionaire prime minister to further dominate the country and its politics."

Thaksin's party replied that it had provided Thailand with a stable, competent and corruption-free government, although critics said that corruption has actually increased under Thaksin's watch. Party spokesperson Suranand Vejjajiva said that Thais Love Thais was "the first party which could translate its populist policies into action. Its achievements and Mr Thaksin's vision give the party a clear edge and it will win an absolute majority," he said.

Thai politics tend to be regionally based. Thai Rak Thai is strongest in the north-east region (Isan), the poorest and most populated part of the country, where Thaksin's populist policies are most popular. TRT is also dominant in the north, since Thaksin was born in Chiang Mai and has directed much government spending to his home region. Thai Rak Thai is strong in the Chao Phraya valley as well, although the region has historically been a stronghold of Chart Thai, which still dominates in some of the central provinces. Voters in Bangkok, the wealthiest part of the country, are less predictable, but steady economic growth, goal-oriented campaign agendas like "Healthy Bangkok" and "10 new MRT lines across the capital", and the publicity Thaksin received after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was enough to swing the allegiance of the capital's middle-class to TRT. The Democrats are strongest in the south, but are popular among liberal-minded voters in Bangkok.

During 2004 most observers suggested that Thaksin's popularity had declined since its peak in 2003, and that he was unlikely to achieve an absolute majority for his own party. The deaths of Muslim protesters in southern Thailand and the bird flu outbreak were seen as issues which the Thaksin government had handled poorly.

Tsunami effects

These calculations were upset by the disaster of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, which devastated six southern coastal provinces. The tsunami and its aftermath drove the election campaign to a large extent out of the media, and also produced a strong sense of national solidarity, from both of which an incumbent government could be expected to benefit. Most commentators praised the Thaksin government's response to the disaster. Political commentator Veera Prateepchaikul, who identified himself as an opponent of Thaksin, wrote in the Bangkok Post on 10 January: "Mr Thaksin deserves credit for his quick response to the disaster, his decisive leadership and his skills in crisis management."

Veera also pointed out that the provinces directly affected by the tsunami were part of the Democrat Party's southern stronghold, and that Thaksin's high profile, particularly on state television, in delivering aid to the area might improve his party's chances of winning more seats in the south. "The Democrats might cry foul that Mr Thaksin is using the state media for campaign purposes," Veera wrote, "but the people may think otherwise." Only a miracle, he wrote, could turn the "tsunami tide which is now clearly in favour of Mr Thaksin." In the event the Democrats retained their dominance in southern Thailand, winning 50 of the 52 southern seats for which figures are available.

By province