Presidential election

The elections came a month after the presidential election won by François Hollande of the Socialist Party. Since 2002, legislative elections immediately follow the presidential ones. This was designed to limit the possibility of a cohabitation, whereby the President and his or her Prime Minister, backed by a parliamentary majority, would be of opposite parties. The aim was also to give the new president and his government a "double mandate", the election of the President being followed by that of a parliamentary majority enabling him to implement his policies.^[3][4] This is what happened in 2002 and 2007.^[5] Thus, in 2012, the Socialist Party has asked French citizens to "confirm" the result of the presidential election; Hollande's campaign director Pierre Moscovici argued it would not make sense to have elected a President only for him to be rendered "powerless" by the legislative election: "This President tomorrow must have a majority with which to govern". By contrast, the Union for a Popular Movement, on the right, has repeatedly asked that the left not be given "all the powers" through this election.^[6][7][8][9] The legislative elections in France are often described as the "third round" of the presidential election.^{[5][7][9][10]}

Ethnic and gender pluralism

In order to make possible the election of some candidates of non-European ethnic background (North African, Subsaharan African and West Indian) as well as for female candidates, the Socialist Party had, like in 2007, reserved several constituencies for them, 22 for ethnic minorities and 49% for women.^[11][12][13]

At the end of the second round, there were 13 metropolitan deputies with non-European ethnic background, including two government members (Kader Arif, former Euro MP, and George Pau-Langevin, already deputy since 2007) who will be replaced by their alternate candidates:

• 6 with Algerian roots: Kader Arif (PS), Kheira Bouziane (PS), Pascal Cherki (PS), Jean-François Copé (UMP), Razzy Hammadi (PS), Chaynesse Khirouni (PS)
• 2 with Lebanese roots: Christian Assaf (PS), Henri Jibrayel (PS)
• 2 with Guadeloupean roots: Hélène Geoffroy (PS), George Pau-Langevin (PS)
• 1 with Tunisian roots: Pierre Lellouche (UMP) (and Razzy Hammadi, whose mother is a Tunisian)
• 1 with Chadian roots: Seybah Dagoma (PS)
• 1 with Brazilian roots: Eduardo Rihan Cypel (PS)

Among the 11 deputies who represent French citizens abroad, one is from Réunion, Corinne Narassiguin (PS), another has Chilean roots, Sergio Coronado (EELV) and a third one has Iranian roots, Pouria Amirshahi (PS).

The two-round system

Each of the 577 constituencies elects one representative to the National Assembly, in a two-round election. A candidate is elected in the first round if he or she obtains an absolute majority of the vote in his or her constituency and the votes of at least one quarter of all registered voters in the constituency. If a large number of voters abstain, an absolute majority of the vote may thus not be enough, although this rarely happens. (In the 2012 election, one surprising example was in Martinique's 3rd constituency, where incumbent MP Serge Letchimy of the Martinican Progressive Party received 63.29% of the vote, but narrowly failed to be immediately elected due to a very low turnout (30.67%).^[18]) If no candidate is elected in the first round, then the two candidates who finished first and second in the first round advance automatically to the second for a runoff. They may be joined by the third- or even fourth-placed candidate; the second round is open to any candidate who has obtained the votes of at least 12.5% of registered voters in the constituency.^[19] Low turnouts therefore decrease the likelihood of a three-person runoff (known in France as a triangulaire). In the second round, the candidate who obtains the most votes is elected; an absolute majority is not required. (In the unlikely event of a tie, the elder of the tied candidates is elected.)^[20]

Candidates who advance to the second round have the option of withdrawing. Usually this happens in a triangulaire, where the party and/or candidate that finished third in the first round prefers to favour one of the two leading candidates. In the 2012 election, for example, third-placed UMP candidate Roland Chassain in the Bouches-du-Rhônes's 16th constituency withdrew in order to help the National Front candidate defeat the Socialist candidate.^[21] In addition, the parties of the mainstream left (Socialist, Greens, Left Front, Radical Party of the Left, various smaller parties) have a long-standing agreement whereby they do not stand against one another in the second round. If two of them advance to the second round in the same constituency, the less-well-placed of the two automatically withdraws. In some cases, this means a triangulaire is avoided, and the left is united against a single right-wing candidate. In the 2012 election, for example, in the Hauts-de-Seine's 11th constituency, incumbent MP and Left Front candidate Marie-Hélène Amiable narrowly finished second (29.20%) behind Socialist candidate Julie Sommaruga (29.93%). Amiable withdrew, supporting Sommaruga in her runoff against New Centre candidate Jean-Loup Metton, who had finished third in the first round with enough support to advance to the second (24.15%). In other cases, this rule means that only one candidate remains in the "second round". Thus, Socialist Najia Amzal withdrew in favour of Left Front candidate and incumbent MP Marie-George Buffet in Seine-Saint-Denis's 4th constituency; Left Front candidate Patrick Le Hyaric withdrew in favour of Socialist candidate Élisabeth Guigou in Seine-Saint-Denis's 6th constituency; Left Front candidate and incumbent MP Pierre Gosnat withdrew in favour of Citizen and Republican Movement candidate Jean-Luc Laurent in the Val-de-Marne's 10th constituency; and Green candidate Stéphane Gatignon withdrew in front of the Left Front's incumbent MP François Asensi in Seine-Saint-Denis's 4th constituency. In all these cases, no candidate of the right, centre or far right had reached the second round, meaning that the best-placed and sole remaining left-wing candidate was guaranteed to be elected in a one-person "runoff".^[22]

Redistricting

The Constitutional Council approved in 2010 the first redistricting of electoral boundaries since 1986 to reflect France's changing demographics. The population ratio between the most populated and least populated constituencies was reduced from 1:3.6 to 1:2.^[23] A study by Regards Citoyens indicated that the number of seats increased in areas held by the centre-right coalition led by then governing UMP at the expense of the Socialist-led opposition coalition.^[24]

Officially, the dual purpose of the redistricting was to ensure a more equal number of voters per constituency, but also to provide seats in the National Assembly to French citizens resident overseas. Thirty-three constituencies were abolished, and thirty-three new ones created. Of the latter, nineteen were in France, while the rest of the world was divided into eleven constituencies for French residents overseas.^[25][26]

Main parties and their aims

The Socialist Party sought to obtain a parliamentary majority with which to implement its policies. Three possible scenarios could have occurred if the left won overall:

• The Socialist Party has an absolute majority of seats, and can govern alone, without having to rely on the support of smaller left-wing or centre-left parties.
• The Socialist Party has a majority with the support of its government partners: Europe Ecology – The Greens, the Radical Party of the Left (centre-left), and the small Citizen and Republican Movement.
• The Socialist Party and its aforementioned partners lack a majority alone, and require the support of the Left Front in order to govern. The Left Front has indicated that it would never bring down the Socialist government, but that it would not systematically support the government's policies, and would require support for some of its own policy proposals.^[27]

The Union for a Popular Movement officially aimed to win the election. Its primary stated aim, however, was to obtain enough seats to prevent the left from having the 3/5ths Congress majority which would enable it to adopt constitutional reforms (such as granting the right to vote to foreign residents in local elections). The UMP's task was complicated by the popularity of the far-right National Front, which the polls indicated could obtain enough support to reach the second round in a large number of constituencies, thus splitting the right-wing vote. (Under French electoral law, in legislative elections, a third party advances to the second round if it obtains the votes of at least 12.5% of registered voters – i.e., including those who abstain.)^[27]

The Left Front aimed to have a sizable group in Parliament, with which to have meaningful influence on the policies of the Socialist government.^[27]

The National Front aimed to obtain seats in the Assembly; it had none prior to the election. A secondary aim was to "sow chaos in the UMP" by maintaining candidates in the second round and thus causing the UMP potentially to lose seats. The National Front's stated aim was eventually to replace the UMP as the main party of the right – though opinion polls credit the UMP with at least 209 seats, and the National Front with 8 at most, possibly none at all.^[27]

Europe Ecology – The Greens aimed to form an official parliamentary group, which requires having fifteen members in the Assembly. It had only three members prior to the election.^[27]

The Democratic Movement aimed to preserve its three seats, although its earlier ambitions were much higher. Opinion polls suggest the party may disappear from the Assembly completely, and is unlikely to obtain any additional seats.^[27]

In all, twelve parties or alliances stood more than a hundred candidates. The Socialist Party had 459 candidates, and endorsed candidates of allied parties in other constituencies. The UMP had 501 candidates, and endorsed candidates of allied parties (most notably the New Centre) in 69 other constituencies. The Left Front had 531 candidates. Europe Ecologie-The Greens had 465. Marine Le Pen's "Marine Blue Gathering" had 571 candidates, and was thus present in all but six constituencies. Most of these candidates were members of the National Front; others were from small, allied extreme right parties. François Bayrou's "Centre for France" alliance had 340 candidates, most of whom were members of the Democratic Movement.^[28]
Also standing over a hundred candidates were:^[28]

• Workers' Struggle: 536
• the New Anticapitalist Party: 329
• the Independent Ecological Alliance: 292
• Arise the Republic: 253
• an alliance of The Clover - The New Ecologists and the Humans, Animals, Nature Movement: 132
• the Independent Workers' Party: 103
• Pirate Party: 101

UMP position on the National Front

With the prospect of National Front candidates reaching the second round alongside the mainstream candidates of the left and right in a number of constituencies, the Socialist Party announced that it would withdraw its candidate from the second round in those constituencies, if and only if it appeared that the National Front candidate had a realistic prospect of winning. In such cases, the Socialists would support the UMP candidate as part of a "republican front" against the far right. The UMP, by contrast, refrained from saying it would withdraw and support a Socialist candidate in those same circumstances.^[29]

Instead, 64% of UMP voters said they would favour an alliance between their own party and the extreme right for the legislative election.^[30] Leading figures of the UMP rejected the possibility. Chantal Jouanno said she was worried it might be under consideration, leading party leader Jean-François Copé to assure her publicly "there will never be an alliance with the National Front".^[31] Two days before the first round, Alain Juppé called upon party members to resist the "temptation" of local alliances with the far right, arguing on "moral", "pragmatic" and "tactical grounds", highlighting ideological and policy incompatibility and the National Front's stated aim to "break" and replace the UMP.^[32]

The day after the first round, the UMP officially announced its position. The party told its candidates not to withdraw if they had entered the second round in third place behind a Socialist candidate and a candidate of the National Front. In addition, in constituencies where the second round was a runoff between the left and the National Front, the UMP would not support either candidate.^[33] Roland Chassain, UMP candidate in the Bouches-du-Rhône's 16th constituency, immediately disobeyed the party line, announcing he was withdrawing from the second round and supporting the National Front candidate. He explained that he considered himself "closer to Marine Le Pen than to the Socialist Party".^[21] In the Gard's 2nd constituency, third-placed UMP candidate Etienne Mourrut also publicly considered defying party instructions and withdrawing in favour of National Front candidate Gilbert Collard. Ultimately, he decided to comply with party instructions and remain in the race.^[34]

Simultaneously, Nadine Morano (UMP), government minister from 2008 and 2012, asked National Front voters in her constituency to support her on the grounds of the "shared values" between the right and the far right,^[35] while UMP mayor of Nice Christian Estrosi stated that the UMP has "no common values" with the Socialist Party.^[36] On 12 June, Morano published an interview in the far right newspaper Minute, calling for "as large a gathering as possible of the right".^[37][38] Another UMP candidate, Jean-Paul Garraud, stated that his party and the National Front had "common beliefs", a statement which was criticised by Alain Juppé as being "in total contradiction" with the stated position of the UMP.^[39]

Martine Aubry, the leader of the Socialist Party, said that her party, by contrast, would support candidates of the right against the far right, as a "Republican principle". In Vaucluse's 3rd constituency, she therefore asked Socialist candidate Catherine Arkilovitch, who had entered the second round in third place (21.98%), to withdraw and support second-placed UMP candidate Jean-Michel Ferrand (30.03%), so as to help defeat National Front candidate Marion Marechal-Le Pen (34.63%).^[40] Arkilovitch, however, defied her party and refused to withdraw.^[41]

Pierre Moscovici, Socialist Minister of Finance, stated on 12 June that the UMP had lost its way and its values and no longer knew what it stood for, in response to its position on the National Front.^[42] Later that same day, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault accused the UMP of "preparing a strategic alliance with the National Front", adding: "I think it was underway with Nicolas Sarkozy, but now the UMP really is at a turning point".^[43]

Gains and losses

Based on notional party affiliation on dissolution after redistricting, regardless of party affiliation on previous election.

Based on notional distribution of seats before dissolution and after the 2010 redistricting, 149 seats switched party (26% of the National Assembly, more than in any of the three previous elections). 8 seats switched from the left to the right, 9 from the extreme-left to the left, 119 from the right to the left, 3 from the right to the extreme-right, 3 from the right to the extreme-left, 2 from Modem to the left, 1 from the right to Modem. Four seats switched party within the left (two from PS to PRG, one from PRG to PS, one from PS to EELV) as a result of coalition agreements.

Notable individual results

Pas-de-Calais 11th

For the first time, two major^[74] candidates from the presidential election stood in the same constituency for the legislative election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Left Front) and Marine Le Pen (National Front) are both standing in the Pas-de-Calais's 11th constituency, centred on the town of Hénin-Beaumont. The incumbent MP, Odette Duriez of the Socialist Party, is not standing for re-election; the Socialist candidate is Philippe Kemel.^[75] The Le Pen-Mélenchon duel attracted international media attention, including for what it revealed of attitudes and expectations in an area of northern France hit hard by deindustrialisation and unemployment. The Guardian noted that, in that regard, "Mélenchon blames what he sees as pernicious free-market capitalism and bankers; Le Pen points the finger at immigrants and Europe".^{[76][77][78][79][80][81][82]}

On the first round, Le Pen won a plurality of the vote. The left-wing vote was split, with the Socialist candidate Philippe Kemel receiving more votes than Mélenchon. All three candidates qualified for the run-off, but Mélenchon withdrew and supported Kemel for the second round. Kemel narrowly won the seat (retaining it for the Socialist Party) with 50.1% of the vote, defeating Marine Le Pen.^[83]

Pyrénées-Atlantiques 2nd

Attention was also drawn to the Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd constituency, where presidential candidate François Bayrou of the centrist Democratic Movement was hoping to retain his seat. Bayrou had held the seat continuously since 1988, but the press raised the possibility that he might this time be beaten. Until 2002, the mainstream right had not stood a candidate against him, and in 2007 the candidate of the Union for a Popular Movement had withdrawn in his favour in the second round. Following Bayrou's personal endorsement of François Hollande for the second round of the 2012 presidential election, however, the UMP maintained a candidate against him. He also had to contend with a Socialist opponent, despite there having been talk in the Socialist Party of not standing a candidate in his constituency, as a gesture of acknowledgment for his endorsement of Hollande.^[85]

Bayrou was defeated, with the seat going to Socialist candidate Nathalie Chabanne.^[86]

Charente-Maritime 1st

In Charente-Maritime's 1st constituency, no candidate of the right, centre or far right reached the second round. The second round was between Ségolène Royal, the Socialist Party's candidate to the 2007 presidential election (who obtained 32.03% in the first round) and a dissident Socialist, Olivier Falorni (28.91%).^[88]

Falorni won the seat, defeating Royal by a comfortable margin.^[89]

Paris 4th

In well-off Paris's 4th constituency, the opposite situation arose: the two candidates qualified for the second round were both from the right: Bernard Debré for the UMP (45.07% in the first round), and Brigitte Kuster, a UMP dissident (23.01%). Immediately after the first round, however, Kuster withdrew. There was a second round nonetheless, but with only one candidate, who needed simply to receive one vote in order to be elected.^[91] This configuration also happened in several constituencies on the left (see subsection "The two-round electoral system", below).

Hauts-de-Seine 9th

The Hauts-de-Seine's 9th constituency, traditionally a very safe seat for the right, raised unexpected difficulties for UMP candidate and former Minister of the Interior Claude Guéant. A dissident member of the UMP, Thierry Solere, contested his legitimacy, stood against him, and reached the second round, precipitating a three-way runoff between two candidates of the right and one of the left.^[92][93]

Solere narrowly won the seat, obtaining votes from the left given Gueant's unpopularity on that side. The total share of the vote for left-wing candidates was 28%, in the first round, plus 4% for the Modem candidate.^[94]

Meurthe-et-Moselle 5th

This constituency drew attention due to the behaviour and situation of UMP candidate Nadine Morano, who had been Minister for Professional Training in François Fillon's government from 2010 to 2012. She finished second in the first round (34.33%) behind Socialist candidate Dominique Potier (39.29%) and, in the hopes of obtaining more votes in the second, appealed explicitly to the voters of the eliminated National Front, on the grounds of "common values" in what she called a "duel between the right and the left". She defined her common values with far right voters as including "control over immigration, refusing to give foreigners the right to vote" and "the protection of our borders". After she had published an appeal in a far right newspaper, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and the leader of the Greens and Minister for Housing Cécile Duflot both described her behaviour as symptomatic of a worrying shift of part of the right towards the extreme right; Ayrault accused her of renouncing her party's values to try and save her seat.^[95][96] Her situation made headlines again when humorist Gérald Dahan phoned her, pretending to be National Front vice-president Louis Aliot, and recorded her expressing her sympathy and closeness to the National Front. François Fillon publicly rebuked her for not having immediately hung up, saying "we don't talk to the leaders of the National Front. We must reject all forms of extremism". Morano hit back, telling him she was a "free politician".^[97][98]

Morano, the incumbent, lost her seat to Socialist candidate Dominique Potier by a 10% margin.^[99]

Bouches-du-Rhône 5th

Marie-Arlette Carlotti, junior Minister for the Disabled, stood in this constituency against the UMP incumbent Renaud Muselier, who had held the seat since 1993. On paper, media reported that, of all the twenty-six ministers standing in the legislative elections, she seemed the least likely to win her constituency. Had she lost, she would have had to resign from the government. She was elected with 51.8%, a result which was also described as having a significant impact on local politics in Marseilles. As minister, she would not be able to sit in Parliament; as long as she stays in the government, her seat goes to her running mate, Avi Assouly, locally famous as a former radio football presenter.^[100][101]

Essonne 8th

In addition to Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and François Bayrou, three candidates from the presidential election were standing in this legislative election. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Arise the Republic) finished first in the first round in Essonne's 8th constituency, with 42.82% of the vote, heading into a runoff with Socialist candidate Aude Bristot (30.2%), and eliminating UMP candidate Laurent Béteille (9.52%).^[103] In the Gironde's 5th constituency, Philippe Poutou (New Anticapitalist Party) finished eighth and was thus eliminated in the first round, receiving just 2.12% of the vote.^[104] In Seine-Saint-Denis's 6th constituency, Nathalie Arthaud (Workers' Struggle) finished sixth with 2.47%, far behind the Socialist incumbent and former Minister for Social Affairs Élisabeth Guigou (46.12%) and the director of l'Humanité, Patrick Le Hyaric, standing for the Left Front (17.33%).^[105]