2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana
The 2012 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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| Turnout | 58.5%[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Richard Lugar ran for reelection to a seventh term, but was defeated in the primary by Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock. U.S. Representative Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana's 2nd congressional district, was unopposed in his party's primary, and then defeated both Mourdock and Libertarian Andrew Horning in the general election.
As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won any statewide election in Indiana, and the most recent Senate election in which an elected incumbent was defeated in the primary.[lower-alpha 1][2] This election is also the most recent time a party would flip a Senate seat in a presidential election year without carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election.[lower-alpha 2] In addition, with Republicans flipping Indiana's other Senate seat two years earlier, this election is the last time a party would flip a Senate seat in a state whose other seat was flipped by the opposition party in the previous election cycle.
On November 7, 2006, incumbent Richard Lugar was unopposed by any major party candidate as no Democrat filed for the May 2006 primary. He was re-elected to his sixth six-year term with 87.3% of the vote.[3] After the 2012 election, Lugar would have had an even chance, according to Senate Republican Conference rules, to be elected as its president pro tempore.[4] However, the issue was rendered moot with Lugar's primary loss on May 9, 2012, as Indiana state law prohibits candidates from running for an election after losing a primary. Time featured the race in their "Fury of the Senate" article. The article mentioned how Donnelly was lucky that Mourdock won out in the primary against Lugar, a well-liked centrist member of the GOP. Another boost came when Mourdock's remarks regarding rape helped propel Donnelly to victory.[5]
The Republican primary was held on May 8, 2012.
Candidates
Declared
- Richard Lugar, incumbent U.S. senator[6][7]
- Richard Mourdock, state treasurer[8]
Declined
- Mike Delph, state senator[9]
- Bob Thomas, auto dealer[10]
Campaign
Due to Lugar's unpopularity among some Tea Party voters because of his positions regarding illegal immigration, voting to confirm then-U.S. Supreme Court nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, the DREAM Act, the New START Treaty, some gun control bills, and congressional earmarks, he was challenged by a Tea Party-backed candidate.[11][12]
The Indiana Debate Commission's GOP primary debate with Sen. Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was set to air at 7 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 11.[13] In a widely published poll taken March 26 to 28, Lugar was still in the lead, but by the time of a second published poll from April 30 to May 1, Mourdock was leading 48% to 38%.[citation needed]
Mourdock defeated Senator Lugar in the Republican primary on May 8, 2012.[14][15]
According to Indiana law, Lugar's defeat meant that he would not be permitted to run in the election either as a third party or an independent candidate after he lost the primary.[16]
Endorsements
- Individuals
- Greg Ballard, Mayor of Indianapolis
- Haley Barbour, former governor of Mississippi[17]
- Pat Boone, singer, actor and writer[18]
- Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana[19][17]
- John Dennis, Mayor of West Lafayette[20]
- Tom J. Donohue, former president and CEO of the American Trucking Association, and president and CEO of U.S. Chamber of Commerce[21]
- Beverly Gard, Indiana State Senator (R-Greenfield)[22]
- William H. Hudnut, former mayor of Indianapolis[20]
- Frank Luntz, political consultant, pollster, Republican Party strategist, and Fox News commentator[23]
- John McCain, United States Senator (R-AZ) and 2008 Republican presidential nominee[24]
- Dr. Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State[17]
- George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State for the Reagan administration[19][17]
- Alan K. Simpson, former U.S. Senator (R-WY); former chairman of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform[25]
- Becky Skillman, Lt. Governor of Indiana[17][22]
- Robert Stewart, former mayor of Columbus[20]
- Organizations
- Christian Coalition[26]
- The Indiana Hardwood Lumbermen's Association[17][27]
- National Defense PAC[17][28]
- National Right to Life[26]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[17][21]
- Individuals
- Sharron Angle, former Nevada Assemblywoman and 2010 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from Nevada[29]
- Michele Bachmann, Congresswoman from Minnesota; 2012 presidential candidate[30]
- Morton Blackwell, activist[31]
- Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza; 2012 presidential candidate[31][32]
- Erick Erickson, managing editor of RedState[31]
- Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief of Forbes; presidential candidate in 1996 and 2000[31][33]
- Mark Levin, radio talk show host[31]
- Michelle Malkin, conservative author, blogger, and commentator[34]
- Dick Morris, political strategist, author, Fox News analyst, and former presidential adviser to Bill Clinton[35]
- Grover Norquist, political activist and president of Americans for Tax Reform[36]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee[31][37]
- Rick Santorum, former senator from Pennsylvania; 2012 presidential candidate[38]
- Organizations
- American Conservative Union[31]
- Americans for Legal Immigration[31]
- Americans for Prosperity
- Citizens United[31][39]
- Club for Growth[31][39]
- Concerned Women for America[31]
- Eagle Forum[31]
- Family Research Council[31]
- FreedomWorks[31][40]
- Gun Owners of America[31][41]
- Indiana Right to Life[31][42]
- Minuteman PAC[31]
- Minuteman Project[31]
- National Association for Gun Rights[31]
- National Federation of Republican Assemblies[31]
- National Republican Trust Political Action Committee[31]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[31][43][44]
- Republican National Coalition for Life[31]
- Tea Party Express[31][45]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Mourdock |
Richard Lugar |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basswood Research (R) | July 23–24, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| American Viewpoint (R) | July 27–28, 2011 | 600 | ±4.0% | 31% | 45% | 23% |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | March 26–28, 2012 | 503 | ±4.5% | 35% | 42% | 28% |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | April 30 – May 1, 2012 | 700 | ±3.7% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Richard Mourdock | 400,321 | 60.5% | |
| Republican | Richard Lugar (incumbent) | 261,285 | 39.5% | |
| Total votes | 661,606 | 100.0% | ||
Candidates
Declared
- Joe Donnelly, U.S. Representative[46]
Declined
- Brad Ellsworth, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[47]
- Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative[48]
Results
Donnelly was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Donnelly | 207,715 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 207,715 | 100.00% | ||
Candidates
- Joe Donnelly (D), U.S. Representative
- Andrew Horning (L), product manager and nominee for governor in 2008[50]
- Richard Mourdock (R), Indiana State Treasurer
Debates
Confirmed debates with Donnelly, Horning and Mourdock are:[51]
Date: Monday, October 15
Broadcast Time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: Indianapolis
Venue: WFYI-TV (in studio/no live audience)
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2012 - C-SPAN
Date: Tuesday, October 23
Broadcast Time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: New Albany
Venue: Paul W. Ogle Cultural & Community Center, Indiana University Southeast (live audience – seating up to 500)
- Complete video of debate, October 23, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Donnelly (D) | $5,572,319 | $5,496,760 | $95,578 | $0 |
| Richard Mourdock (R) | $8,982,053 | $8,698,721 | $283,332 | $0 |
| Andy Horning (L) | $4,907 | $2,905 | $2,005 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[52] | ||||
Top contributors
| Joe Donnelly | Contribution | Richard Mourdock | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faegre Baker Daniels | $30,942 | Club for Growth | $290,815 | |
| MacAndrews & Forbes | $29,500 | Senate Conservatives Fund | $58,728 | |
| Renco Group | $27,400 | Koch Industries | $30,000 | |
| Barnes & Thornburg | $22,601 | Murray Energy | $15,000 | |
| University of Notre Dame | $20,150 | Lucas Oil | $11,400 | |
| MWH Global WPP plc | $17,000 | ESOP Association | $10,750 | |
| Eli Lilly and Company | $16,912 | Blue Cross Blue Shield Association | $10,250 | |
| Power, Rogers & Smith | $16,000 | American Bankers Association | $10,000 | |
| Mid Manhattan PAC | $13,750 | ExxonMobil | $10,000 | |
| Patton Boggs LLP | $13,083 | Citizens United | $10,000 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets[53] | ||||
Top industries
| Joe Donnelly | Contribution | Richard Mourdock | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $463,098 | Republican/Conservative PACs | $474,661 | |
| Leadership PACs | $298,000 | Leadership PACs | $305,607 | |
| Retired | $192,716 | Retired | $244,206 | |
| Lobbyists | $109,987 | Oil & gas | $132,530 | |
| Building trade unions | $77,000 | Financial institutions | $90,200 | |
| Financial institutions | $100,235 | Commercial banks | $88,430 | |
| Education | $91,563 | Health professionals | $86,567 | |
| Building trade unions | $63,500 | Misc. finance | $64,815 | |
| Public sector unions | $87,000 | Manufacturing industry | $60,200 | |
| Political action committees | $63,798 | Real estate | $58,290 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets[54] | ||||
Campaign
Pregnancy from rape controversy
Mourdock became embroiled in a controversy after stating that pregnancy from rape is "something that God intended". His remarks were made during a debate on October 23, 2012, while explaining his opposition to abortion even in the case of rape. At the debate Mourdock, when asked what his position on abortion was, responded:
I know there are some who disagree and I respect their point of view but I believe that life begins at conception. The only exception I have to have an abortion is in that case of the life of the mother. I just struggled with it myself for a long time but I came to realize: "Life is that gift from God that I think even if life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen".[55]
Media speculated that this could affect the outcome of the Senate race and Presidential race[56] and multiple sources noted the similarities with the rape and pregnancy statement controversies in the 2012 United States elections.[57][58]
Responding to the criticism, Mourdock issued a statement saying: "God creates life, and that was my point. God does not want rape, and by no means was I suggesting that he does. Rape is a horrible thing, and for anyone to twist my words otherwise is absurd and sick."[59] He was later quoted at a press conference also saying: "I believe God controls the universe. I don't believe biology works in an uncontrolled fashion."[60] He however refused to issue an apology, even while prominent Republicans, including Sen. John McCain, called for him to do so.[61]
Response
A day before the controversy started, a television ad began airing that showed Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for United States President, supporting Mourdock.[62] The Romney campaign subsequently issued a statement saying "Gov. Romney disagrees with Richard Mourdock's comments, and they do not reflect his views," but did not pull the ad. Senator John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said "Richard and I, along with millions of Americans—including even Joe Donnelly—believe that life is a gift from God. To try and construe his words as anything other than a restatement of that belief is irresponsible and ridiculous".[63][64]
Many public Republicans called for Mourdock to apologize for the statement. Sen. John McCain called for him to issue an apology and his support "depends on what he does."[61] Senator Scott Brown refused to state that he supported Mourdock in the election.[65] Rep. Mike Pence, a Republican running for governor of Indiana concurrent to Mourdock's senatorial campaign, urged Mourdock to apologize. "I strongly disagree with the statement made by Richard Mourdock during last night's Senate debate," he said in a statement. "I urge him to apologize."[66]
President Obama stated, "Rape is rape. It is a crime," on the Tonight Show. He continued, "These various distinctions about rape don't make too much sense to me."[67] Dan Parker, chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, immediately criticized Mourdock, saying: "I'm stunned and ashamed that Richard Mourdock believes God intended rape", and claimed that he is an "extremist" who is out of touch with Indiana.[55]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[68] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[70] | Tilt D (flip) | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[71] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Mourdock (R) |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Andrew Horning (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | March 26–28, 2012 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 35% | 35% | 7% | — | 23% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 23–24, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 42% | — | 2% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 31 – August 1, 2012 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 40% | — | 3% | 15% |
| Market Research Insight | August 6–9, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 39% | 3% | — | 17% |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | September 19–23, 2012 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 40% | 7% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 10–11, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | — | 2% | 8% |
| Pharos Research | October 19–21, 2012 | 754 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 46% | — | — | 8% |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | October 28–30, 2012 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 36% | 47% | 6% | — | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 1, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 45% | 6% | — | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Richard Lugar (R) |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | March 26–28, 2012 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 29% | — | 21% |
- with Richard Lugar
On election night, Donnelly won by about six percent. Donnelly performed well in Marion County, home of Indianapolis. Donnelly also won areas with major college campuses, such as Indiana University in Bloomington and Purdue University in Lafayette. Mourdock performed well as expected in the Indianapolis suburbs, such as Hamilton County. Mourdock conceded defeat to Donnelly at around 11:30 p.m. EST.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Donnelly | 1,281,181 | 50.04% | N/A | |
| Republican | Richard Mourdock | 1,133,621 | 44.28% | -43.08% | |
| Libertarian | Andy Horning | 145,282 | 5.68% | -6.91% | |
| Write-in | 18 | 0.00% | -0.06% | ||
| Total votes | 2,560,102 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Madison (largest city: Anderson)
- Spencer (largest city: Santa Claus)
- Starke (largest city: Knox)
- Vanderburgh (largest city: Evansville)
- Scott (Largest city: Scottsburg)
- Blackford (Largest city: Hartford City)
- Clark (Largest city: Jeffersonville)
- Crawford (Largest city: Marengo)
- Floyd (Largest city: New Albany)
- Jefferson (Largest city: Madison)
- Fayette (Largest city: Connersville)
- Henry (Largest city: New Castle)
- Howard (Largest city: Kokomo)
- Wayne (Largest city: Richmond)
- Vermillion (largest city: Clinton)
- Perry (largest city: Tell City)
- Sullivan (Largest city: Sullivan)
- Delaware (largest city: Muncie)
- LaPorte (largest city: Michigan City)
- Tippecanoe (largest city: Lafayette)
- Porter (largest city: Portage)
- Vigo (largest city: Terre Haute)
- Monroe (Largest city: Bloomington)
- St. Joseph (Largest city: South Bend)
- Marion (Largest city: Indianapolis)
- Lake (Largest city: Hammond)
By congressional district
Donnelly won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[73]
| District | Donnelly | Mourdock | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 66.31% | 30.99% | Pete Visclosky |
| 2nd | 49.94% | 45.42% | Joe Donnelly (112th Congress) |
| Jackie Walorski (113th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 40.47% | 53.96% | Marlin Stutzman |
| 4th | 43.56% | 49.03% | Todd Rokita |
| 5th | 47.36% | 46.18% | Dan Burton (112th Congress) |
| Susan Brooks (113th Congress) | |||
| 6th | 43.68% | 48.93% | Mike Pence (112th Congress) |
| Luke Messer (113th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 66.03% | 28.00% | André Carson |
| 8th | 47.74% | 46.84% | Larry Bucshon |
| 9th | 46.81% | 47.20% | Todd Young |
- U.S. Senator Luther Strange lost a primary election to Roy Moore in 2017 after being appointed by the governor to fill an empty seat.
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