2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

2012 United States Senate election in Missouri

2012 United States Senate election in Missouri

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

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Incumbent U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill was unopposed in the Democratic primary and U.S. Representative Todd Akin won the Republican nomination with a plurality in a close three-way race.

Years prior, many forecasters considered Claire McCaskill to be the most vulnerable Democratic senator seeking re-election in 2012 due to the state's rightward shift. However, the election received considerable media coverage due to controversial comments made by the eventual Republican nominee, Todd Akin, most notably his claim that women could not get pregnant from rape. McCaskill was comfortably re-elected to a second term, with backlash against Akin from women, particularly suburban white women, being cited as the main reason. As of 2024, this was the last time the Democrats won a U.S. Senate election in Missouri.

Background

In 2006, Claire McCaskill was elected with 49.6% of the vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Jim Talent.

Democratic primary

Incumbent U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill ran unopposed in the Democratic primary election.

Candidates

Nominee

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

The Republican primary election for the United States Senate in Missouri, held on August 7, 2012, was one of the three most anticipated of summer 2012. This was due to the projected closeness of the Federal races in Missouri in November 2012, and the potential to change the control of the Senate in January 2013.[4] Democrats believed that Todd Akin would be the weakest among the likely challengers for the Senate seat, and ads attacking him as "too conservative" were largely viewed as a veiled support for his nomination.[5][6][7] In McCaskill's memoir, she revealed that she also influenced the Akin campaign by providing polling information, which some election law experts later felt would be a violation of regulations against coordination.[8]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Todd Akin
John Brunner
Sarah Steelman
  • Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin[26]
  • U.S. Senator Mike Lee (Utah)[24]
  • Tea Party Express[27]
  • Susan B. Anthony List[28]
  • Jane Cunningham, state senator[29]
  • Steven Tilley, Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives
  • Rep. Jay Barnes (Jefferson City)
  • Rep. T.J. Berry (Kearney)
  • Rep. Eric Burlison (Springfield)
  • Rep. Steve Cookson (Fairdealing)
  • Rep. Sandy Crawford (Buffalo)
  • Rep. David Day (Dixon)
  • Rep. Charlie Denison (Springfield)
  • Rep. Tonny Dugger (Hartfield)
  • Rep. Kevin Elmer (Nixa)
  • Rep. Paul Fitzwater (Potosi)
  • Rep. Diane Franklin (Camdenton)
  • Rep. Ward Franz (West Plains)
  • Rep. Keith Frederick (Rolla)
  • Rep. Jeff Grisamore (Lee's Summit)
  • Rep. Casey Guernsey (Bethany)
  • Rep. Kent Hampton (Malden)
  • Rep. Galen Higdon (St. Joseph)
  • Rep. Dave Hinson (St. Clair)
  • Rep. Denny Hoskins (Warrensburg)
  • Rep. Lincoln Hough (Springfield)
  • Rep. Caleb Jones (California)
  • Rep. Delus Johnson (St. Joseph)
  • Rep. Shelley Keeney (Marble Hill)
  • Rep. Mike Lair (Chillicothe)
  • Rep. Bill Lant (Joplin)
  • Rep. Scott Largent (Clinton)
  • Rep. Mike Leara (St. Louis)
  • Rep. Donna Lichtenegger (Jackson)
  • Rep. Tom Loehner (Koeltztown)
  • Rep. Thomas Long (Battlefield)
  • Rep. Mike McGhee (Odessa)
  • Rep. Chris Molendorp (Belton)
  • Rep. Myron Neth (Liberty)
  • Rep. Don Phillips (Kimberling City)
  • Rep. Darrell Pollock (Lebanon)
  • Rep. Craig Redmon (Canton)
  • Rep. Lyle Rowland (Cedar Creek)
  • Rep. Don Ruzicka (Mount Vernon)
  • Rep. Jason Smith (Salem)
  • Rep. Sheila Solon (Blue Springs)
  • Rep. Mike Thomson (Maryville)
  • Rep. Steven Tilley (Perryville)
  • Rep. Noel Torpey (Independence)
  • Rep. Don Wells (Cabool)
  • Rep. Ray Weter (Nixa)
  • Rep. Billy Pat Wright (Dexter)
  • Rep. Anne Zerr (St. Charles)[30]

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...

Results

Republican primary results by county
  Akin
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Brunner
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Steelman
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  Tied
  •   30-40%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Libertarian primary

Jonathan Dine ran unopposed in the Libertarian primary election.

Candidates

  • Jonathan Dine, personal trainer and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

General election

Candidates

  • Claire McCaskill (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Todd Akin (Republican), U.S. Representative
  • Jonathan Dine (Libertarian), personal trainer[10]

Debates

The first debate was held on September 21 in Columbia, Missouri and was sponsored by the Missouri Press Association.[31] Topics discussed by the three candidates included the Affordable Care Act, the future of the U.S. Postal Service, the rapid rise of college tuition, and Representative Akin's controversial comments on rape.[32]

The second and final debate was held October 18 in St. Louis. It was sponsored by the Clayton Chamber of Commerce and hosted by television station KSDK, public radio station KWMU and the St. Louis Business Journal.[33]

External links

Rape and pregnancy controversy

While making remarks on rape and abortion on August 19, 2012, Akin made the claim that women victims of what he described as "legitimate rape" rarely experience pregnancy from rape. In an interview aired on St. Louis television station KTVI-TV, Akin was asked his views on whether women who became pregnant due to rape should have the option of abortion. He replied:

Well you know, people always want to try to make that as one of those things, well how do you, how do you slice this particularly tough sort of ethical question. First of all, from what I understand from doctors, that's really rare. If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let's assume that maybe that didn’t work or something. I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be on the rapist and not attacking the child.[34]

The comments from Akin almost immediately led to an uproar, with the term "legitimate rape" being taken to imply belief in a view that some kinds of rape are "legitimate", or, alternatively, that victims who do become pregnant from rape are likely to be lying about their claims. His claims about the likelihood of pregnancy resulting from rape were widely seen as being based on long-discredited pseudoscience, with experts seeing the claims as lacking medical validity.[35][36][37] Akin was not the first to make such claims, but was perhaps one of the most prominent.[38] While some voices such as Iowa congressman Steve King supported Akin,[39] senior figures in both parties condemned his remarks and some Republicans called for him to resign.[40][41][42] In the resulting furor, Akin received widespread calls to drop out of his Senate race from both Republicans and Democrats.[43] Akin apologized after making the comment, saying he "misspoke", and he stated he planned to remain in the Senate race. This response was itself attacked by many commentators who saw the initial comments as representative of his long-held views, rather than an accidental gaffe.

The comment was widely characterized as misogynistic and recklessly inaccurate, with many commentators remarking on the use of the words "legitimate rape".[44][45][46] Related news articles cited a 1996 article in an obstetrics and gynecology journal, which found that 5% of women who were raped became pregnant, which equaled about 32,000 pregnancies each year in the US alone.[47] A separate 2003 article in the journal Human Nature estimated that rapes are twice as likely to result in pregnancies as consensual sex.[48] (See also pregnancy from rape.)

The incident was seen as having an impact upon the Republicans' chances of gaining a majority in the U.S. Senate[49] by making news in the week before the 2012 Republican National Convention and by "shift[ing] the national discussion to divisive social issues that could repel swing voters rather than economic issues that could attract them" to the Republican Party.[50] Akin, along with other Republican candidates with controversial positions on rape, lost due to backlash from women voters.[51]

Other controversies

On October 20, at a fundraiser, Akin compared McCaskill to a dog. After being criticized, Akin's campaign aide wrote on his official Twitter page that if Claire McCaskill "were a dog, she’d be a ‘Bullshitsu.’" The aide later said that he was joking.[52] Akin was caught on tape commenting that "Sen. Claire McCaskill goes to Washington, D.C., to ‘fetch' higher taxes and regulations."[53]

Fundraising

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Top contributors

More information Claire McCaskill, Contribution ...

Top industries

More information Claire McCaskill, Contribution ...

Predictions

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
General election

Results

Even though the last poll before the election showed Akin only losing by four percentage points, McCaskill defeated him handily, by a 15.7% margin of victory and a vote margin of 427,966. Both McCaskill and incumbent governor Jay Nixon, running at the same time, were able to get a large number of votes from rural parts of the state, something President Barack Obama was not able to do. McCaskill and Nixon were declared the winners of their respective races even before results from the known big Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in. Akin conceded defeat to McCaskill at 10:38 P.M. Central Time.

Time featured the race in an article on the Senate. The article mentioned that McCaskill had been fading in pre-election polls, and that she was considered the most vulnerable/endangered Democratic incumbent in 2012. However, Akin's controversial comments helped McCaskill rise in the polls and propelled her to a victory in the election.[62][63][64] In August 2015, McCaskill penned a Politico article in which she stated that in 2012, she had "successfully manipulated the Republican primary so that in the general election [she] would face the candidate [she] was most likely to beat."[65]

More information Party, Candidate ...

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McCaskill won 6 of 8 congressional districts, four of which were won by Republicans, including Akin's own district.[67]

More information District, McCaskill ...

See also


References

  1. Quinn, Kay (November 24, 2010). "Senator Claire McCaskill says Washington more polarized, voters more cynical". KSDK-TV. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
  2. Lambrecht, Bill (December 23, 2010). "McCaskill: "I will have to work very hard" to get re-elected". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved December 23, 2010.
  3. "State of Missouri - Primary Election - August 7, 2012". MO Secretary of State. August 8, 2012. Retrieved January 1, 2018.
  4. Aaron Blake; Sean Sullivan (August 7, 2012). "Primary day: Five things watch for in Missouri, Michigan and Washington". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 7, 2012.
  5. Schultheis, Emily (August 3, 2012). "McCaskill ad calls Akin 'too conservative' for Missouri". Politico. Retrieved August 22, 2012.
  6. "McCaskill meddles in GOP primary". POLITICO. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  7. McDermott, Kevin; Pistor, Nicholas J.C. (August 2012). "Is Claire McCaskill helping Todd Akin in the GOP primary?". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved November 3, 2018.
  8. Helling, Dave (August 12, 2015). "McCaskill-Akin tale raising questions in legal, political communities". Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 10, 2024.
  9. Miller, Sean (May 17, 2011). "Rep. Akin joins Missouri Senate race, setting up primary fight". The Hill. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  10. Williams, Kari (May 23, 2012). "Business perspective needed in Washington, Brunner says". Call Newspapers. Archived from the original on June 23, 2013. Retrieved June 8, 2012.
  11. Wagman, Jake (October 3, 2011). "Frontenac Republican joins Senate race, aims to unseat McCaskill". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  12. Miller, Joshua (October 3, 2011). "Brunner Enters Missouri Senate Race". Roll Call. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  13. Catanese, David (December 1, 2010). "Inaugural scoop: Steelman files for Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 1, 2010.
  14. Catanese, David (February 22, 2011). "Emerson to pass on Senate bid". Politico. Retrieved February 23, 2011.
  15. Wagman, Jake (February 3, 2011). "Sam Graves says no to running for U.S. Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved February 3, 2011.
  16. Catanese, David (November 18, 2011). "Kinder endorses Dave Spence". Politico. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  17. Miller, Joshua (May 13, 2011). "Luetkemeyer Will Not Seek Missouri Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved May 13, 2011.
  18. Trygstad, Kyle (March 20, 2012). "Missouri: No Senate Bid for Tom Schweich". Roll Call. Archived from the original on August 18, 2012. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  19. Lambrecht, Bill (January 27, 2011). "Talent says no to Missouri Senate bid". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved January 27, 2011.
  20. Miller, Joshua (April 26, 2011). "Wagner Moves Toward Bid for Akin's Seat in Missouri". Roll Call. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  21. Wagman, Jake (April 26, 2011). "Ann Wagner moves toward Congressional run". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  22. Miller, Joshua (October 25, 2011). "Ann Wagner Definitively Rules Out Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  23. Livingston, Abby (March 29, 2012). "Conservative Senators Pick Sides in Texas, Missouri and Maine Primaries". Roll Call. Archived from the original on August 16, 2012. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  24. "Governor Palin Endorses Sarah Steelman in Republican Senate Primary". Sarahsteelman.com. July 17, 2012. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  25. "2012 Endorsements". Tea Party Express. January 27, 2012. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  26. Yokley, Eli (July 20, 2012). "Cunningham backs Steelman Senate bid". Politicmo.com. Archived from the original on July 25, 2012. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  27. Held, Kevin. "Missouri gubernatorial, U.S. Senate debates this Friday in Columbia". Associated Press. Retrieved October 4, 2012.
  28. Palosaari, Ben. "The best jabs of the Missouri Senate debate". Pitch News. Archived from the original on September 24, 2012. Retrieved October 4, 2012.
  29. Jaco, Charles (August 19, 2012). "The Jaco Report: August 19, 2012". Fox News. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  30. Graham, David A. (August 22, 2012). "Video of the Day: 'Forcible Rape' and Paul Ryan's Akin Problem". The Atlantic. Retrieved August 25, 2012.
  31. Belluck, Pam (August 21, 2012). "Health Experts Dismiss Assertions on Rape". The New York Times. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
  32. Kliff, Sarah (August 20, 2012). "Rep. Todd Akin is wrong about rape and pregnancy, but he's not alone". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on August 22, 2012. Retrieved August 22, 2012.
  33. "Leading social conservatives rally to Akin's defense". CNN. August 20, 2012. Archived from the original on August 21, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
  34. Seung Min Kim (August 21, 2012). "List of senators calling on Akin to quit keeps growing". Politico. Retrieved August 22, 2012.
  35. Killough, Ashley (August 20, 2012). "GOP chair: Akin should drop out, skip convention". CNN. Archived from the original on August 22, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
  36. Abouhalkah, Yael T. "Todd Akin's rape fantasy". Kansas City Star. Archived from the original on September 1, 2013. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  37. Eligon, John (August 19, 2012). "Senate Candidate Provokes Ire With 'Legitimate Rape' Comment". The New York Times. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  38. Holmes, Melisa M.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Best, Connie L. (1996). "Rape-related pregnancy: Estimates and descriptive characteristics from a national sample of women". American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology. 175 (2): 320–4, discussion 324–5. doi:10.1016/S0002-9378(96)70141-2. PMID 8765248. Cited in: Blake, Aaron. "Todd Akin, GOP Senate candidate: 'Legitimate rape' rarely causes pregnancy". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 20, 2012.
  39. Gottschall, Jonathan A.; Gottschall, Tiffani A. (2003). "Are per-incident rape-pregnancy rates higher than per-incident consensual pregnancy rates?". Human Nature. 14 (1): 1–20. doi:10.1007/s12110-003-1014-0. PMID 26189986. S2CID 20886610. Cited in: Robillard, Kevin (August 20, 2012). "Doctors: Todd Akin pregnancy claim bogus". Politico. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
  40. Akin imbroglio is bad news for Republicans Tom Cohen, CNN updated 3:23 PM EDT, Wed August 22, 2012
  41. Haberkorn, Jennifer (November 6, 2012). "Abortion, rape controversy shaped key races". Politico.
  42. Kraske, Steve (October 22, 2012). "Akin aide adds profanity to 'dog' characterization of McCaskill". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved November 3, 2018.
  43. "Akin likens McCaskill to a dog". POLITICO. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  44. "Campaign Finances". Retrieved November 3, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  45. "Campaign Finances". Retrieved November 3, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  46. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  47. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  48. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  49. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  50. "The Senate – Much Fury, Little Change", Time, p. 18, November 19, 2012
  51. Hughes, Siobhan (November 6, 2012). "Claire McCaskill Defeats Todd Akin to Win Missouri Senate Seat". Wall Street Journal.
  52. Eligon, John (November 7, 2012). "Turnaround in Missouri as Incumbent Keeps Seat". The New York Times.
  53. McCaskill, Claire (August 11, 2015). "How I Helped Todd Akin Win — So I Could Beat Him Later". Politico. Retrieved August 1, 2018.

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