2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Minnesota

2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota

2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota

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The 2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
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Results by county with size showing number of votes
Treemap of the popular vote by county

Despite Trump flipping numerous Midwestern states, some of which hadn't voted Republican since the 1980s, Minnesota was still won with a plurality by Clinton and a 1.52% margin, the eleventh consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972. However, this was the closest presidential election in Minnesota since 1984, when Walter Mondale carried the state by a 0.18% margin, and it became the only state that was not carried by Ronald Reagan that year. The state also voted to the right of the national average for the first time since 1952, with Trump flipping nineteen counties to Republican. Minnesota had the highest voter turnout in the nation, with approximately 75 percent of the state's eligible voters participating in the general election.[1] Through her narrow victory, Clinton won all ten of Minnesota's electoral votes; one elector, Muhammud Abdurrahan, tried to vote for Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont but was replaced with an elector that voted for Clinton.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2016 Minnesota Democratic presidential caucuses

Bernie Sanders received the most votes and the most delegates in the precinct caucuses.[3] The 2016 turnout was slightly lower than the 2008 tally of 214,066, when Obama won with 142,109 votes, to Clinton's 68,994. Bernie Sanders won every congressional district in Minnesota.[4]

More information Minnesota Democratic caucuses, March 1, 2016, Candidate ...

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2016 Minnesota Republican presidential caucuses

The 38 delegates from Minnesota were allocated in this way. If a candidate received more than 85% of the vote, they would get all of 38 delegates. Otherwise, 24 delegates would be allocated proportionally based on the votes per congressional district (3 votes per district). On top of that, there were 10 at-large delegates and 3 party leaders (the National Committee Man, the National Committee woman, and the chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party). All of the at-large delegates were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote with a mandatory threshold of 10% to receive any delegates; if no one got at least 10%, all candidates would be eligible to get delegates.[5]

More information Candidate, Votes ...

Some media outlets recorded the votes by congressional district, rather than by county. Rubio won districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul area as well as the southern part of the state. Cruz won districts 6, 7 and 8 in the St. Cloud area and rural north.[4]

Green caucuses

The Green Party of Minnesota held caucuses on March 1 in Saint Paul, Minneapolis, Bemidji, White Bear Lake, Blaine, Grand Rapids, and Willmar.[6] Jill Stein won the caucuses with 84.3% of the vote. The delegates apportioned to each candidate will be decided at the state convention in St. Cloud, Minnesota in June.[7] The results of the caucuses are as follows:[8]

More information Candidate, Votes ...

Libertarian caucuses

Main article: 2016 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

The Minnesota caucus was run on March 1, 2016, using ranked choice voting. Gary Johnson took over 75% of the 226 first-preference votes cast, with John McAfee a distant second on 11.5% and Austin Petersen third on 7.5%.[11]

More information Candidate, Votes ...

General election

Predictions

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Polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Minnesota

Clinton won almost every pre-election poll in Minnesota by margins ranging from 5 to 11 points. Trump won one poll in November 2015, 45% to 42%, and one poll in September 2016 showed a tie. The average of the last two polls had Clinton up 50% to 41%.[21] The last poll had Clinton up 53% to 42%.

Candidates

The following had write-in status:[22]

  • Dennis Andrew Ball and Richard Sanders
  • Henry Bartlett and Condoleezza Rice
  • Robert L. Buchanan and Jason A. Washington
  • Richard Duncan and Ricky Johnson
  • Cherunda Fox and Roger Kushner
  • Eric Gerhard and Ken Virnig
  • Joseph Glentz and Mike Hennessy
  • Ben Hartnell and Dave Marshall
  • Tom Hoefling and Steve Schulin
  • Alec Holbeck and John Hulet
  • James Hrenak Jr and Lauren Rasmussen
  • Alan Jacquemotte and Ronalee Evelyn Mueller
  • Lynn Kahn and Kathy Monahan
  • Chris Keniston and Deacon Taylor
  • Roger Koplitz and John Kerry
  • Laurence Kotlikoff and Edward Leamer
  • Gloria La Riva and Eugene Puryear
  • Johnson Immanuel Li and Aida Yuquimpo Li
  • Darin Lynch and Jaci Dukowitz
  • Joseph Maldonado and Douglas Terranova
  • Srinivasa K Mallapadi and Sripriya Mallapadi
  • Michael Andrew Maturen and Juan Antonio Munoz
  • Stephen J. McCarthy and Joyce Meyer
  • Daniel Muffoletto and Jesse Ventura
  • Michael S Olkowski and Daniel E Olkowski
  • Aaron Idean Orwick and Brad Alan Fredricks
  • Micah Payeur and Joshua Payeur
  • Ricky J. Regenold and James Kolden
  • Clifton Roberts and Breeze Harper
  • Matthew Roberts and Charles Clauss
  • Platt Robertson and Scott Falls
  • Marshall Schoenke and James Mitchell Jr.
  • Joe Schriner and Joe Moreaux
  • Derrick Schumacher and Ross Wendling
  • Arthur E. Sidner and Sandra Arcement
  • Michael L. "Mike" Smith and Daniel White
  • Keith Richard Snell and Russell LeBeau
  • Emidio Soltysik and Angela Walker
  • J. J. Vogel Walcutt and Chris Walcutt
  • Kirk Wettschreck and Lori Motzko
  • Jeffrey Ryan Wharton Sr. and Amy Klobuchar
  • Jerome S White (Jerry White) and Niles Niemuth
  • Demetra Jefferson Wysinger and Cedric D. Jefferson
  • Charles R. Zerilli and Ajamu Baraka

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Results by county

More information County, Hillary Clinton DFL ...

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[25]

Results by congressional district

Trump won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats, while Clinton won 3, including one held by a Republican.[26]

More information District, Clinton ...

[27]

Analysis

Minnesota voted 6.2 percent less Democratic from the 2012 presidential election, a much larger shift than the nation at large. Donald Trump only increased his vote tally compared to Mitt Romney in 2012 by 2,726 votes which resulted in a percentage of vote loss of 0.04%. The difference in Democratic voting was largely attributed to Independent or Write-In candidates. The most significant Independent gains went to Gary Johnson with 3.84 percent of the vote (+2.64% over 2012), Evan McMullin with 1.8 percent of the vote (he was not a candidate in 2012), and Jill Stein with 1.26 percent of the vote (+0.82% over 2012). These three candidates account for 5.26 percent of the swing. This election marked the first time since 1952 that the Democratic candidate performed worse in Minnesota than in the nation at large. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1 points but won Minnesota by just 1.5 points, or 44,765 votes. Minnesota has been a primarily Democratic state in national elections since 1932.

Due to Independent and Write-In gains throughout the state, Clinton was dependent on her wins in Hennepin (Minneapolis) and Ramsey (St. Paul) counties, the two most populous counties in the state, and the Arrowhead Region in the northeastern corner of the state.[28] Trump's votes came from less populated, rural counties. Two counties, Morrison and Todd, gave Trump over 70% of the vote, making this the first election since 1968 where either major party candidate won a county with over 70%, with Trump also being the first Republican to do so since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956.

Trump was also the first Republican to receive a majority of votes in Itasca County since Herbert Hoover in 1928,[29] the first to win Swift County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, and the first to win Mower County since Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy in 1960.

Nonetheless, he became the first-ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Olmsted County. Due to the close margin of victory in the state, Republicans had targeted Minnesota as a potential swing state target for the 2020 United States presidential election.[30]

See also

References

  1. [1]
    "Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved July 22, 2017.
  2. [2]
    "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  3. [3]
    "Statement from Chairman Ken Martin on Precinct Caucuses". Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party. March 3, 2016. Archived from the original on December 7, 2017. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  4. [4]
    "Results from the Minnesota caucuses". graphics.latimes.com. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  5. [5]
    "Minnesota Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 24, 2017.
  6. [6]
    "Green Party Minnesota Sunflower Seed - February 2016". Minnesota Green Party. February 19, 2016. Retrieved February 20, 2016.[permanent dead link]
  7. [7]
    "Jill Stein Wins GPMN Presidential Straw Poll". March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.[permanent dead link]
  8. [8]
    "Stein wins 84.3% in Minnesota Green presidential caucuses". March 2, 2016. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
  9. [9]
    "Stein wins in Boston and Worcester". Green Party Watch. March 2, 2016. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 5, 2016.
  10. [10]
    "Unofficial results show Stein easily winning Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party presidential primary". Green Party Watch. March 2, 2015. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 5, 2016.
  11. [11]
    "2016 LPMN Caucus Results of presidential preference poll". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. March 1, 2016. Retrieved March 20, 2016.
  12. [12]
    "2016 LPMN Caucus Results of presidential preference poll". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. March 2016. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  13. [13]
    "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. [14]
    Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  15. [15]
    "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  16. [16]
    "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  17. [17]
    "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  18. [18]
    Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  19. [19]
    "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  20. [20]
    "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  21. [21]
    "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Minnesota: Trump vs. Clinton".
  22. [22]
    "Federal Offices General Ballot List" (PDF).
  23. [23]
    "2016 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". Minnesota Secretary of State. Archived from the original on November 20, 2022. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
  24. [24]
    "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Minnesota".
  25. [25]
    Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  26. [26]
    "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index".
  27. [27]
    Simon, Steve (November 29, 2016). "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report" (PDF). Minnesota Secretary of State. State of Minnesota. Retrieved December 2, 2016.
  28. [28]
    "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  29. [29]
    "Why one Minnesota county voted Republican for the first time since 1928". MPR News. November 14, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2019.
  30. [30]
    Keen, Judy (November 17, 2018). "Will Minnesota be a tossup state in 2020 elections?". Star Tribune. Retrieved March 17, 2019.

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