2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama

2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama

2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama

U.S. Senate special election in Alabama


The 2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama took place on December 12, 2017, in order for the winner to serve the remainder of the U.S. Senate term ending on January 3, 2021. A vacancy arose from Senator Jeff Sessions's February 8, 2017, resignation from the Senate. Sessions resigned his post to serve as the 84th U.S. attorney general. On February 9, 2017, Governor Robert J. Bentley appointed Luther Strange, the attorney general of Alabama, to fill the vacancy until a special election could take place. The special election was scheduled for December 12, 2017.[2]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, won the Democratic primary election. Roy Moore, a former chief justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama, competed with Strange and U.S. Representative Mo Brooks in the August 15, 2017, Republican primary; the two highest vote-getters, Moore and Strange, advanced to a runoff.[3] President Donald Trump supported Strange during the primary runoff, as did much of the Republican establishment in the Senate.[4][5] Moore won the primary runoff on September 26, 2017.[6][7]

Following the primaries, Moore was expected to easily win the general election. Polling showed him with a clear lead, and Alabama is known for its overwhelming support for Republicans. The race was upended in mid-November 2017, when multiple women alleged that Moore had made unwanted advances or sexually assaulted them when he was in his early thirties and they were in their teens (the youngest was 14 at the time), attracting widespread national media coverage of the election.[8][9] As a result of these allegations, many national Republican leaders and office holders called for Moore to withdraw from the special election, rescinded their endorsements of him, and stopped funding his campaign.[10][11][12] Trump and many Alabama Republicans reaffirmed their support.[13] At the time of the revelations, it was too late to remove his name from the ballot.

On December 12, 2017, the Associated Press called the election for Jones; however, Moore refused to concede.[14][15] Jones’ victory was widely labeled a major upset. He was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, becoming the first Democratic U.S. senator from Alabama since Howell Heflin left office in 1997.[16] This is the only time Democrats won a statewide election in Alabama since 2008, when Lucy Baxley was elected President of the Alabama Public Service Commission.

Background

Potential appointees

Following then-President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of then-Senator Sessions to be U.S. attorney general, Robert Aderholt, a member of the United States House of Representatives, had asked to be appointed to the seat.[17] Representative Mo Brooks had also expressed interest in the seat, while Strange had stated before being selected that he would run for the seat in the special election whether or not he was appointed.[18][19] Other candidates Governor Bentley interviewed for the Senate appointment included Moore; Del Marsh, the president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate; and Jim Byard, the director of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs.[20]

A vacancy arose from Senator Jeff Sessions' February 8, 2017 resignation to serve as the 84th U.S. attorney general. On February 9, 2017, Governor Robert J. Bentley appointed State Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the vacancy until a special election could take place. Bentley controversially scheduled the special election to occur in 2018 instead of sooner.[21][22] When Kay Ivey succeeded Bentley as Alabama's Governor, she rescheduled the special election for December 12, 2017, a move she said was made to adhere with state law.[23]

Republican primary

Campaign

The Republican primary attracted national attention, especially following Trump's endorsement of incumbent Senator Luther Strange. Strange was backed by several key figures within the Republican establishment, most notably Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader. His two main rivals in the primary were former state judge Roy Moore and Congressman Mo Brooks. While Strange was expected to advance through the first round of the primary, almost every opinion poll showed him trailing Roy Moore in a potential runoff. Strange placed second behind Roy Moore, securing a spot in the runoff.[24]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Roy Moore
Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State Representatives
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals
Luther Strange
Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
State representatives
Organizations
Mo Brooks
U.S. representatives
State representatives
  • Ed Henry, state representative and chairman of Donald Trump's Alabama campaign[98]
Organizations
Individuals

First round

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Primary results by county
  Moore
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Strange
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Brooks
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Runoff

President Donald Trump supported Strange during the primary runoff, in addition to much of the Republican establishment in the Senate, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who made the success of Strange's candidacy a major priority.[108][5] Trump's efforts on behalf of Strange included tweeting and a rally in Huntsville, Alabama. Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for Strange as well.[109][6] With McConnell's help, Strange outspent Moore by a margin of 10-to-1.[109][110]

National interest in the race dramatically increased in the month before the runoff. Strange maintained his endorsement from Trump, who campaigned for him in Huntsville during the closing days of the campaign.[111] Trump's endorsement of Strange sparked criticism among his own base, many of whom preferred Moore and detested Strange for being seemingly too friendly with the GOP establishment. Several notable figures close to Trump broke from the president to endorse Moore, including HUD Secretary Ben Carson and Breitbart Executive Chairman Steve Bannon. Despite Trump’s endorsement, Strange was defeated by Roy Moore in the runoff,[112] 54.6%-45.4%.[113]

Moore won the primary runoff on September 26, 2017.[6][114] This was the first time that an incumbent U.S. senator having active White House support lost a primary since Arlen Specter lost to Joe Sestak in 2010.[115]

Debates

Averages

More information Model, Moore ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

Primary runoff results by county
  Moore
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Strange
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Crumpton, activist, nominee for the state senate in 2014 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[124][53]
  • Brian McGee, retired teacher and Vietnam War veteran[27][125][126]

Declined

Endorsements

Doug Jones
Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals
Robert Kennedy Jr.
Individual
  • Carl Lewis, Olympic gold medalist and University of Houston track and field head coach[148]

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Primary results by county
  Jones
  •   ≥90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Boyd
  •   Boyd—30–40%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Independents and write-in candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Ron Bishop (L, write-in)[149]
  • Lee Busby (R, write-in), retired Marine colonel[150]
  • Jeff "Cog" Coggin (I, write-in), Air Force veteran[151]
  • Chanda Mills Crutcher (I, write-in), minister[152]
  • Eulas Kirtdoll (I, write-in)[153]
  • Arlester "Mack" McBride (I, write-in)[154]
  • Mac Watson (R, write-in)[155]

Declined

General election

Controversies

Roy Moore sexual misconduct allegations

On November 9, The Washington Post reported that four women had accused Roy Moore of engaging in sexual conduct with them when they were teenagers and he was an assistant district attorney in his thirties. One of the women was 14 years old at the time, below the legal age of consent.[8] A few days later a fifth woman said that she had received unwanted attention from Moore when she was 15 years old, and that in December 1977 or January 1978,[156] when she was 16, Moore sexually assaulted her.[9][157] Moore denied the allegations.

After this, certain Republican leaders and conservative organizations withdrew their endorsements of Moore or asked him to drop out of the campaign. These included Texas Senator Ted Cruz, U.S. Attorney General and former seat holder Jeff Sessions, Ivanka Trump,[158] the National Republican Senatorial Committee,[159] former Republican presidential nominees Mitt Romney[160] and John McCain,[161] Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,[162] Ohio Governor John Kasich,[163] Utah Senator Mike Lee,[164] Montana Senator Steve Daines,[165] and House Representatives Barbara Comstock, Carlos Curbelo, and Adam Kinzinger, as well as the Young Republican Federation of Alabama.[166][167][168][169][170] The state’s senior Senator Richard Shelby also refused to endorse Moore. Other conservative websites and organizations such as National Review urged readers not to vote for Moore.[171][172] Despite this, Moore continued to receive support from the state party and a week before the election, President Donald Trump strongly endorsed Moore.[173] Following Trump's endorsement, the RNC reinstated their support for him,[174] and Republican leaders said they would "let the people of Alabama decide" whether to elect Moore.[175]

At the time of the revelations, it was too close to the election for Moore's name to be removed from the ballot, as Alabama law forbids any change to names on the ballot within 76 days of any primary or general election.[176] Republican officials proposed various ways to promote an alternate Republican candidate. One suggestion was to ask Governor Kay Ivey to delay the special election until 2018,[177] but Ivey said she had no plans to change the election date.[178] Some Republicans such as Senator Lisa Murkowski floated the prospect of a write-in campaign to elect Luther Strange, with Utah Senator Orrin Hatch actively endorsing a write-in campaign for Strange.[179] However, Strange said it was "highly unlikely" that he would run a write-in campaign.[180] Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell proposed Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who formerly held the Senate seat, as a write-in candidate.[181] In late November, Retired Marine Col. Lee Busby launched a write-in campaign, stating that he thought there was room for a centrist in the race.[182]

Debates

Republican nominee Roy Moore refused to debate Democratic nominee Doug Jones.[183][184][185] Moore turned down debate invitations extended by the League of Women Voters,[184] WHNT-TV and AL.com.[185][183] Jones' campaign said that Jones was "willing to debate Roy Moore anytime, anywhere" and accused Moore of "hiding from the voters, from the media and from his record for weeks."[185][183] Moore and his campaign stated that he refused to debate Jones because their policy positions were already clear to voters and thus there was no need for a formal debate.[185][183]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Candidates

On ballot

Write-in

Endorsements

Doug Jones (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Roy Moore (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide office holders
State Senators
State Representatives
Sheriffs
Political commentators
Religious leaders
White nationalists
Other individuals
Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

* Unpublished poll released on December 15

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
with Roy Moore on ballot and Luther Strange as write-in candidate
with Luther Strange on ballot
with generic Republican/Democrat

Results

Turnout map by county
  25–30%
  30–35%
  35–40%
  40–45%
  45–50%
  50–55%

At 9:23 p.m. CST on December 12, 2017, the Associated Press called the election for Jones; however, Moore refused to concede.[367][368] Jones was the first Democratic candidate to win a statewide election in Alabama since former lieutenant governor Lucy Baxley was elected president of the Alabama Public Service Commission in 2008.[369] Jones was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, becoming the first Democratic U.S. senator from Alabama since Howell Heflin left office in 1997.[16]

More information Party, Candidate ...

By congressional district

Despite his statewide win, Jones only won one district.[372]

More information District, Moore ...

Results by county

More information Doug Jones, Roy Moore ...

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

Jones on stage following his victory
Write-in votes by county:
  <1%
  >1%
  >2%
  >3%

Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore by a margin of 21,924 votes. Voter turnout was 40.54% of Alabama's 3,326,812[373] registered voters.

Jones won primarily by running up huge margins in the state's major cities. The state's four largest counties—Jefferson (home to the state's largest city of Birmingham), Mobile (home to Mobile), Madison (home to Huntsville), and Montgomery (home to the state capital of Montgomery)—all gave Jones 56 percent or more of the vote. He carried Jefferson by over 83,800 votes, and Montgomery by almost 30,500 votes; either county would have been more than enough to give him the victory. Jones also dominated the Black Belt. Jones took 61% of votes from voters under 45. He also took over 96 percent of the Black vote. While Moore dominated the state's rural areas outside of the Black Belt, he significantly underperformed Trump's totals in those areas, as well as the suburbs such as traditional GOP fortress Shelby County, which Moore won by a small margin.[374]

An envelope to a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraising mailer distributed in 2018 with a reference to Jones' victory in the traditionally strongly Republican state of Alabama

As of December 15, Moore demanded a recount and refused to concede the race, despite being urged by Trump, Bannon, and others to concede. In Alabama, if the final margin of victory is less than 0.5%, then a recount is automatically triggered. If not, then either candidate can request a recount at their own expense.[375][376] However, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill estimated that a recount could cost anywhere from $1 million to $1.5 million, an amount that would have had to be paid in full when the request is made. Moore had only $636,046 on hand by the time the campaign ended.[377] A number of right-leaning websites pushed conspiracy theories about voter fraud providing the margin for Jones.[378] Merrill noted on December 20 that the only outstanding ballots were 366 military ballots and 4,967 provisional ballots; even if all those votes were for Moore, it would not have been enough to trigger an automatic recount.[379]

Because the number of write-in votes was larger than Jones' margin of victory, the names written in were both counted and listed.[380] Luther Strange, who lost the Republican primary to Moore, received the most write-in votes, followed by former White House aide Lee Busby, U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks, who also ran in the Republican Senate primary, Libertarian write-in candidate Ron Bishop, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Nick Saban, Alabama's head coach, finished in seventh with more than 250 votes.[381]

After the election, Moore filed a lawsuit attempting to block the state from certifying the election and calling for an investigation into voter fraud. On December 28, 2017, a judge dismissed this lawsuit and state officials certified the election results, officially declaring Doug Jones the winner.[382] Jones was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, by Vice President Mike Pence.[16] Jones became the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Alabama since former lieutenant governor Lucy Baxley was elected president of the Alabama Public Service Commission in 2008 over Republican Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh.[369] Prior to that, Democrat Jim Folsom Jr. was elected Lieutenant Governor of Alabama in 2006 over Republican Luther Strange.[383] The last Democrat to win a federal statewide election in Alabama was Richard Shelby in 1992, who switched to the Republican Party in late 1994.[384]

Voter demographics

More information Demographic subgroup, Jones ...

See also

Notes

  1. In February 2017, Strange was appointed by Governor Robert J. Bentley to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Jeff Sessions, who had appointed U.S. attorney general.

References

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