2017_Western_Australian_state_election

2017 Western Australian state election

2017 Western Australian state election

State general election for Western Australia

The 2017 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday 11 March 2017 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, including all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council. The eight-and-a-half-year two-term incumbent Liberal–WA National government, led by Premier Colin Barnett, was defeated in a landslide by the Labor opposition, led by Opposition Leader Mark McGowan.

Quick Facts All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council 30 Assembly seats were needed for a majority, First party ...

Labor won 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly—a 12-seat supermajority. This was WA Labor's strongest performance in a state election at the time, and formed the largest majority government and seat tally in Western Australian parliamentary history until that point. Additionally, Labor exceeded all published opinion polling, winning 55.5 percent of the two-party-preferred vote from a state record landslide 12.8-point two-party swing.[1][2][3] It was the worst defeat of a sitting government in Western Australia, as well as one of the worst defeats of a sitting state or territory government since Federation.

Labor also became the largest party in the Legislative Council with 14 of the 36 seats. The Labor government thus required at least five additional votes from non-government members to pass legislation.[3][4]

Results

Legislative Assembly

See also: Results of the Western Australian state election, 2017 (Legislative Assembly)
Government (41)
  Labor (41)

Opposition (13)
  Liberal (13)

Crossbench (5)
  National (5)
More information Party, Votes ...

The four main media networks covering the election, the ABC, Sky News, Seven News and Nine News, all called the election for Labor within two hours after polls closed. McGowan succeeded Barnett to become the 30th Premier of Western Australia.[7][8]

By the morning of 12 March, two thirds of votes had been counted and seven lower house seats were still in doubt, showing that Labor had won at least 36 seats, well above the 30 required for a majority, which the ABC predicted would increase to 41. Meanwhile, the Liberals and WA Nationals had won only 10 and five seats respectively, with a further three expected to be retained by the Liberals.[9]

The swing against the government affected traditionally safe seats. Consequently, six government ministers lost their seats in the Legislative Assembly while one lost his seat in the Legislative Council.[10]

The Labor landslide was built primarily on a near-sweep of Perth. Labor took 34 of the capital's 43 seats on a swing of 13.6 points, accounting for nearly all of its majority. By comparison, it had gone into the election holding 17 seats in Perth. According to the ABC's Antony Green, the 10 percent swing Labor needed to make McGowan premier was not nearly as daunting as it seemed on paper. Green noted that several Liberals in outer suburban seats sat on inflated margins. Additionally, Green argued that the one vote one value reforms of 2008, which allowed Perth to elect over 70 percent of the legislature, proved to be a boost for Labor in 2017. Green noted that when Labor last governed from 2001 to 2008, it did so in a legislature where voters in country seats had twice the voting power of voters in a Perth-based seat.[2]

Seats changing parties

Seat Pre-2017 Swing Post-2017
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Balcatta   Liberal Chris Hatton 7.1 12.9 5.8 David Michael Labor  
Belmont   Liberal Glenys Godfrey 1.0 12.4 11.4 Cassie Rowe Labor  
Bicton   Liberal Matt Taylor1 10.0 13.0 2.9 Lisa O'Malley Labor  
Bunbury   Liberal John Castrilli 12.2 23.0 10.8 Don Punch Labor  
Burns Beach   Liberal Albert Jacob2 11.3 13.9 2.5 Mark Folkard Labor  
Darling Range   Liberal Tony Simpson 13.1 18.9 5.8 Barry Urban Labor  
Forrestfield   Liberal Nathan Morton 2.2 11.6 9.4 Stephen Price Labor  
Jandakot Liberal Joe Francis 18.3 19.4 1.0 Yaz Mubarakai Labor
Joondalup Liberal Jan Norberger 10.4 11.0 0.6 Emily Hamilton Labor
Kalamunda   Liberal John Day 10.3 12.7 2.5 Matthew Hughes Labor  
Kalgoorlie National Wendy Duncan 3.2 n/a 6.2 Kyran O'Donnell Liberal  
Kingsley Liberal Andrea Mitchell 14.0 14.7 0.7 Jessica Stojkovski Labor
Morley   Liberal Ian Britza 4.7 16.2 11.4 Amber-Jade Sanderson Labor  
Mount Lawley   Liberal Michael Sutherland 8.9 12.9 4.0 Simon Millman Labor  
Murray-Wellington Liberal Murray Cowper 12.0 13.4 1.4 Robyn Clarke Labor
Perth   Liberal Eleni Evangel 2.8 14.6 11.8 John Carey Labor  
Pilbara National Brendon Grylls 11.5 13.8 2.3 Kevin Michel Labor  
Southern River   Liberal Peter Abetz 10.9 18.8 7.9 Terry Healy Labor  
Swan Hills   Liberal Frank Alban 3.7 18.3 14.5 Jessica Shaw Labor  
Wanneroo   Liberal Paul Miles 11.0 18.2 7.3 Sabine Winton Labor  
1 Matt Taylor was the member for the seat of Bateman, but contested Bicton after losing preselection to Dean Nalder, the member for the abolished seat of Alfred Cove.
2 Albert Jacob was the member for the abolished seat of Ocean Reef, but instead contested Burns Beach, a seat containing much of the same territory.
  • Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • Labor also retained two seats—Collie-Preston and West Swan—which were notionally Liberal-held after the redistribution. The Liberals retained Hillarys, which was being contested by the incumbent MLA Rob Johnson as an independent.

Legislative Council

See also: Results of the Western Australian state election, 2017 (Legislative Council)
Government (14)
  Labor (14)

Opposition (9)
  Liberal (9)

Crossbench (13)
  National (4)
  Greens (4)
  One Nation (3)
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (1)
  Liberal Democrats (1)
Map of seats won for each party per electoral division.
More information Party, Primary votes ...


Labor became the largest party in the Legislative Council with 14 of the 36 seats. The Labor government will require at least five additional votes from non-government members to pass legislation.[4][13]

On 4 April, the Western Australian Electoral Commission conducted a recount of 2013 election results to fill two casual vacancies for the remainder of the 2013–17 term caused by the resignation and subsequent election to the Legislative Assembly of Amber-Jade Sanderson (Labor) in East Metropolitan and Peter Katsambanis (Liberal) in North Metropolitan.[14] The vacancies were filled by Bill Leadbetter (Labor) and Elise Irwin (Liberal), who will first sit in the Legislative Council on 11 May 2017.[15]

Date of election

Barnaby C, protecting the Carnaby's black cockatoo habitat, and an anti-Roe 8 supporter, appeared at a number of media events during the election campaign

On 3 November 2011, the Government of Western Australia introduced fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Assembly, with the elections to be held on the second Saturday in March.[16][17][18] The first election under the new law was the 2013 election. Previously, under electoral reforms of the Burke Government in 1987, four-year maximum terms were adopted for the Legislative Assembly, and fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Council.[19]

Campaign

The Western Australian National Party led by Brendon Grylls, who retook the leadership in August 2016, ran on a policy to increase the tax on every tonne mined from $0.25 to $5 for BHP and Rio Tinto.[20] The big mining companies ran an advertising campaign against the policy,[21][22] while a poll conducted found that 39.4% of voters surveyed supported the policy, 37.1% opposed and 23.5% were undecided.[23][24]

The Liberal Party undertook a preference deal with One Nation during the elections, saying the party held less extreme views than it did in the 1990s.[25][26][27] Some One Nation candidates were against the preference deal with the Liberal Party.[28]

One Nation ran on opposing privatisation and the National party mining taxes.[29]

Seats held

Lower house

At the 2013 election, Labor won 21 seats, the Liberals won 31 seats and the Nationals won 7 seats. No seats were won by independents.

On 15 April 2016, the Liberal member for Hillarys, Rob Johnson, resigned from the Liberals to sit as an independent, leaving the government with 30 seats in the lower house.

Upper house

At the 2013 election, the Liberals won 17 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, the Greens won two seats and the Shooters and Fishers won one seat.

Western Australia's Legislative Council is divided into six regions. Three are based in Perth, while three are rural. Each region elects six members to the Legislative Council. These areas are not of similar population sizes, with rural areas receiving from one and a half to about six times the effective membership of the metropolitan regions.

The Western Australian rural population dropped from about 12.1% to 10.7% of the state's enrolled electors after the 2008 election. Election analyst Antony Green predicted this would make it more difficult for the Liberals or Labor (who typically perform better in Perth than rural areas) to increase their presence within the Legislative Council.[30]

Redistribution

A redistribution of electoral boundaries for the lower house was completed on 27 November 2015. This resulted in a net gain of one seat for the Liberals from Labor. The Liberal seats of Alfred Cove, Eyre and Ocean Reef, the Labor seat of Gosnells and the National seat of Wagin were abolished. Five new seats were created (or re-created): the notionally Liberal seats of Bicton (mostly replacing Alfred Cove) and Burns Beach (mostly replacing Ocean Reef), the notionally Labor seats of Baldivis (created from parts of Kwinana and Warnbro) and Thornlie (replacing Gosnells), and the notionally National seat of Roe (merging Wagin and Eyre). The Labor seats of Collie-Preston and West Swan became notionally Liberal.[31]

Retiring MPs

Members who did not re-nominate at the 2017 election:

Liberal

National

Electoral pendulums

The following Mackerras pendulums work by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis,[38] grouped as marginal, safe etc. as defined by the Australian Electoral Commission.[39]

Pre-election pendulum

This pendulum takes the redistribution into account. One sitting member, retiring Wagin Nationals MP Terry Waldron, does not appear in this pendulum: his seat was combined with Eyre to form Roe, a seat with a National margin that will also be contested by Eyre Liberal MP Graham Jacobs, who is listed as the defending member below. Two Liberal members, Dean Nalder (Alfred Cove, now renamed Bicton) and Matt Taylor (Bateman), were contesting each other's seats; this is reflected below. Retiring members are listed in italics.

Liberal/National seats
Marginal
West Swan Rita Saffioti LIB 0.9
Belmont Glenys Godfrey LIB 1.0
Forrestfield Nathan Morton LIB 2.2
Perth Eleni Evangel LIB 2.8
Collie-Preston Mick Murray LIB 2.9
Kalgoorlie Wendy Duncan NAT 3.2 v LIB
Swan Hills Frank Alban LIB 3.7
Morley Ian Britza LIB 4.7
Moore Shane Love NAT 5.9 v LIB
Fairly safe
Balcatta Chris Hatton LIB 7.1
Warren-Blackwood Terry Redman NAT 7.2 v LIB
Central Wheatbelt Mia Davies NAT 8.9 v LIB
Mount Lawley Michael Sutherland LIB 8.9
Safe
Bicton Matt Taylor LIB 10.0
Kalamunda John Day LIB 10.3
Joondalup Jan Norberger LIB 10.4
North West Central Vince Catania NAT 10.5 v LIB
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB 10.9 v NAT
Southern River Peter Abetz LIB 10.9
Wanneroo Paul Miles LIB 11.0
Burns Beach Albert Jacob LIB 11.3
Pilbara Brendon Grylls NAT 11.5
Murray-Wellington Murray Cowper LIB 12.0
Bunbury John Castrilli LIB 12.2
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB 12.7
Dawesville Kim Hames LIB 12.7
Darling Range Tony Simpson LIB 13.1
Kingsley Andrea Mitchell LIB 14.0
Hillarys Rob Johnson LIB 16.0
Roe Graham Jacobs NAT 16.7 v LIB
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB 17.3
Jandakot Joe Francis LIB 18.3
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB 18.3
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB 19.1
Very safe
Churchlands Sean L'Estrange LIB 20.0
South Perth John McGrath LIB 20.0
Cottesloe Colin Barnett LIB 21.1
Vasse Libby Mettam LIB 21.2
Bateman Dean Nalder LIB 23.1
Labor seats
Marginal
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP 0.5
Butler John Quigley ALP 1.0
Albany Peter Watson ALP 1.0
Thornlie Chris Tallentire ALP 1.8
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP 2.1
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP 2.5
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP 2.7
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP 2.8
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP 4.0
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP 4.3
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP 4.6
Mirrabooka Janine Freeman ALP 4.6
Bassendean Dave Kelly ALP 5.1
Kimberley Josie Farrer ALP 5.1
Fairly safe
Baldivis new seat ALP 6.4
Mandurah David Templeman ALP 7.7
Armadale Tony Buti ALP 9.6
Safe
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP 10.6
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP 13.2
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP 15.4

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Joondalup Emily Hamilton ALP 0.6
Kingsley Jessica Stojkovski ALP 0.7
Jandakot Yaz Mubarakai ALP 1.0
Murray-Wellington Robyn Clarke ALP 1.4
Pilbara Kevin Michel ALP v NAT 2.3
Kalamunda Matthew Hughes ALP 2.5
Burns Beach Mark Folkard ALP 2.5
Bicton Lisa O'Malley ALP 2.9
Mount Lawley Simon Millman ALP 4.0
Albany Peter Watson ALP v NAT 5.1
Darling Range Barry Urban ALP 5.8
Balcatta David Michael ALP 5.8
Fairly safe
Baldivis Reece Whitby ALP v IND 7.2
Wanneroo Sabine Winton ALP 7.3
Southern River Terry Healy ALP 7.9
Forrestfield Stephen Price ALP 9.4
Safe
Bunbury Don Punch ALP 10.8
Belmont Cassie Rowe ALP 11.4
Morley Amber-Jade Sanderson ALP 11.4
Perth John Carey ALP 11.8
Kimberley Josie Farrer ALP 13.0
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP 13.0
Swan Hills Jessica Shaw ALP 14.5
Collie-Preston Mick Murray ALP 14.7
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP 15.5
Thornlie Chris Tallentire ALP 15.8
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP 15.9
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP 16.5
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP 16.7
West Swan Rita Saffioti ALP 17.1
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP 17.9
Mandurah David Templeman ALP 18.0
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP 18.1
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP 18.1
Mirrabooka Janine Freeman ALP 19.2
Butler John Quigley ALP 19.5
Bassendean Dave Kelly ALP 21.5
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP 23.1
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP 23.4
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP 23.7
Armadale Tony Buti ALP 25.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Dawesville Zak Kirkup LIB 0.7
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB 1.3
Hillarys Peter Katsambanis LIB 4.1
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB 4.4
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB 5.6
Fairly safe
Kalgoorlie Kyran O'Donnell LIB 6.2
South Perth John McGrath LIB 7.1
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB 8.3
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB 9.0
Bateman Dean Nalder LIB 9.5
Safe
Churchlands Sean L'Estrange LIB 13.2
Cottesloe Colin Barnett LIB 13.3
Vasse Libby Mettam LIB 14.7
Crossbench seats
North West Central Vince Catania NAT v ALP 9.5
Warren-Blackwood Terry Redman NAT v ALP 13.4
Moore Shane Love NAT v LIB 13.9
Roe Peter Rundle NAT v LIB 14.4
Central Wheatbelt Mia Davies NAT v ALP 22.6


Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Primary vote
Two-party-preferred vote
Aggregate data of all voting intention polling since the 2013 Western Australian state election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Voting intention

More information Date, Firm ...
More information Liberal Barnett, Labor McGowan ...
More information Barnett, McGowan ...

Newspaper endorsements

More information Newspaper, Endorsement ...

See also

References

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