2018_Quebec_general_election

2018 Quebec general election

2018 Quebec general election

Canadian provincial legislature contest


The 2018 Quebec general election was held on October 1, 2018, to elect members to the National Assembly of Quebec. The election saw a landslide victory for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) led by François Legault, which won 74 of 125 seats, giving the party a majority and unseating the Quebec Liberal Party. The Liberals became the official opposition with 31 seats.

Quick Facts 125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec 63 seats needed for a majority, Turnout ...

This election was the first won by the CAQ, which had previously been the third party in the legislature. It was also the first since 1966 that had been won by a party other than the Liberals or Parti Québécois.

Background

In Quebec the Liberal Party had held power since 2003, save for a period of less than two years between 2012 and 2014.

The National Assembly has had a fixed four-year term since passing a fixed election date law in 2013. The law stipulates that "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature",[3] setting the date for October 1, 2018. However, the Chief Electoral Officer could have changed the election date in the event of a natural disaster. Furthermore, the Lieutenant Governor could have called an election sooner should the Premier have requested one, or in the event the government had been dissolved by a motion of no confidence.[4]

Timeline

Party standings

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Seat changes (2014–2017)

Results by riding of the 15 by-elections to the National Assembly of Quebec during the 41st Legislature (2014–2018)
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  1. also from the position of Minister of Education
  2. also from the positions of PQ leader and Leader of the Opposition
  3. also from the position of Opposition House Leader
  4. to seek the Bloc Québécois leadership

Other developments

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Incumbents not running for reelection

As of September 5, 2018, a total of 45 MNAs elected in 2014 will not run in the 2018 election, of whom 12 resigned[47] from the National Assembly, one died in office and 32 announced that they will not seek re-election[48] including one whose riding was dissolved, and one who got fired.[49] The latter comprise the following:

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At the end of his term, Gendron, Dean of the National Assembly, will have served for 41 years and 10 months, representing Abitibi-Ouest for 11 terms.

Campaign

Slogans

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Issues

The election was believed to be the first in almost half a century that had not been fought on the issue of whether Quebec should stay in Canada. The PQ had promised not to hold another referendum on sovereignty until 2022 at the earliest had it won.[57]

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Opinion polls

The CAQ’s landslide victory was, in part, surprising due to the close outcome that was projected by opinion polls during the campaigning period. Although polls estimated a difference of approximately 2% between the PLQ and the CAQ in the days leading up to the election, the results showed a 12.6% gap in voting.[61] Studies suggest that this outcome is the result of an ongoing reconfiguration in Quebec’s electoral system that is shifting from a two-party to a multi-party system, as the vote share for the QLP and the PQ had been on the decline since 2007.[62][63] Additionally, the question of sovereignty, which had previously been a reliable indicator of voting choice[62][64] was replaced by other matters such as identity, immigration, redistribution, and the environment.[62] Research indicates that the polls may have been misled by this change in focus combined with last-minute moves toward the CAQ and the tendency of those who did not disclose their vote to disproportionately vote for the same party.[61] The topic of identity appeared extremely important and was mobilized throughout individuals’ participation with the election campaigns.[65] These findings suggest that the CAQ’s shocking victory was the result of longstanding trends toward a multi-party system and a diversified agenda of topics which were not accurately predicted by the polls.

Evolution of voting intentions during the pre-campaign period of the 2018 Quebec general election.
Evolution of voting intentions during the campaign period of the 2018 Quebec general election.

Candidates

Bas-Saint-Laurent and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine

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Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Côte-Nord and Nord-du-Québec

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Capitale-Nationale

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Mauricie

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Estrie

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Montréal

East

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West

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Outaouais and Abitibi-Témiscamingue

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Chaudière-Appalaches

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Centre-du-Québec

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Laval

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Lanaudière

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Laurentides

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Montérégie

Eastern

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South Shore

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Results

The CAQ went into the election as the third party in the legislature, but won a decisive victory with 74 seats, exceeding all published opinion polling. The Liberals won 31 seats, while Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois each won 10 seats.[98] This is the second election in a row in which a government has been defeated after only one term.

The CAQ formed government for the first time, mainly by dominating its traditional heartlands of Capitale-Nationale, Chaudière-Appalaches and Centre-du-Québec, while winning sweeps or near-sweeps in Mauricie, Estrie, Lanaudière, Montérégie, the Laurentides and northern Quebec. Many of their gains came at the expense of the PQ. The CAQ took a number of seats that had been in PQ hands for four decades or more, in some cases by landslide margins. It did, however, win only two seats in Montreal.

The Parti Québécois came up two seats short of official status in the legislature. Notably, it was completely shut out in Montreal for the first time in decades; indeed, it won only one seat (Marie-Victorin in Longueuil) in the entire Greater Montreal area. It was easily the PQ's worst showing in a provincial election in 45 years. For the second election in a row, its leader was unseated in his own riding. According to a postmortem by The Globe and Mail, the PQ was so decisively beaten that there were already questions about whether it could survive.[99] Echoing this, Christian Bourque of Montreal-based pollster Léger Marketing told The Guardian that he believed the PQ was likely finished in its present form, and would have to merge with another sovereigntist party to avoid fading into irrelevance.[100]

The election was viewed as the Liberals' worst defeat since the 1976 election. While the party more than held its own in Montreal (where it won 19 out of 27 seats) and Laval (where it retained all but one seat), it only won seven seats elsewhere.

This was the first election in which Québec Solidaire won seats outside Montreal, taking one seat from the PQ and three from the Liberals.

The CAQ won 37.4 percent of the popular vote, a smaller vote share than the Liberals' 41 percent in 2014 and the lowest vote share on record for a party winning a majority government.[101] However, due to the nature of the first-past-the-post system, which awards power solely on the basis of seats won, the CAQ's heavy concentration of support in the regions they dominated was enough for a strong majority of 11 seats. Quebec elections have historically seen large disparities between the raw vote and the actual seat count.

Following the elections, both Jean-François Lisée and Philippe Couillard resigned.

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Summary analysis

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Synopsis of riding results

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  1. "General elections - October 1, 2018: Official results by electoral divisions". electionsquebec.qc.ca. Retrieved December 5, 2019.
  2. including spoilt ballots
  3. minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the national popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
  4. Riding created from parts of Mirabel, Blainville and Masson
  5. Riding created from parts of Bertrand and Rousseau

See also

Notes

  1. Québec solidaire designated Massé as its candidate for Premier, and Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois as co-spokespeople. The party's power is held by the general meetings of the members and a board of 16 directors; the de jure leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGE) is Gaétan Châteauneuf.[2]

References

  1. "Québec solidaire". Élections Québec. Archived from the original on May 12, 2021. Retrieved June 20, 2017.
  2. Authier, Philip (August 15, 2014). "CAQ heavyweight Christian Dubé leaving politics". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved August 22, 2018.
  3. Vendeville, Geoffrey (October 21, 2014). "CAQ holds the fort in Lévis byelection". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  4. Ouellet, Martin (September 29, 2014). "Elaine Zakaïb, PQ Member, Quits Politics To Run Jacob". HuffPost Canada. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  5. "Parti Québécois wins Richelieu riding in byelection". CBC News. March 10, 2015. Retrieved March 10, 2015.
  6. Authier, Philip (February 26, 2015). "Yves Bolduc turns his back on politics, heads back to medicine". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  7. "By-election - June 8, 2015 - Official results". Archived from the original on June 14, 2015. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  8. "Gérard Deltell jumps into federal politics with Conservatives". CBC News. April 7, 2015. Retrieved April 7, 2015.
  9. "Official Results". Élections Quebec. Archived from the original on June 14, 2015. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  10. Lau, Rachel (August 21, 2015). "Marguerite Blais quits politics, needed a challenge". Global News. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  11. "Le PLQ et le PQ en voie de conserver leurs sièges". Le Devoir (in French). November 9, 2015. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
  12. "MNA Gilles Ouimet to quit politics". Montreal Gazette. August 24, 2015. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  13. "Sylvie Roy quits CAQ to sit as independent". CTV News. August 26, 2015. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  14. Plante, Caroline (September 3, 2015). "PQ MNA Marjolain Dufour quits for health reasons". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved October 12, 2015.
  15. Plante, Caroline (October 22, 2015). "Veteran PQ MNA Stéphane Bédard quits Parti Québécois". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved October 22, 2015.
  16. "Élection partielle dans Chicoutimi le 11 avril" (in French). Radio-Canada. March 9, 2016. Retrieved August 22, 2018.
  17. Bélair-Cirino, Marco; Fortier, Marco (May 2, 2016). "PKP doit faire une importante déclaration vers 14h". Le Devoir (in French). Retrieved August 19, 2018.
  18. "MNA Sylvie Roy dies following serious illness". CTV News. August 1, 2016. Retrieved August 1, 2016.
  19. Chouinard, Tommy; Croteau, Martin (October 20, 2016). "Allégation d'agression sexuelle: Gerry Sklavounos forcé de se retirer du caucus libéral". La Presse (in French). Retrieved August 23, 2018.
  20. The Canadian Press (January 19, 2017). "Quebec solidaire's Francoise David quits politics immediately". Maclean's. Retrieved January 19, 2017.
  21. Authier, Philip (January 24, 2017). "François Legault kicks Claude Surprenant out of CAQ caucus". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  22. Montpetit, Jonathan (January 27, 2017). "Pierre Paradis out of cabinet, Liberal caucus as police probe complaint of sexual nature". CBC News. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  23. "PQ MNA Martine Ouellet to run for Bloc Québécois leadership". Montreal Gazette. February 5, 2017. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  24. Hinkson, Kamila (April 27, 2017). "Sam Hamad, former Liberal cabinet minister, quits politics | CBC News". CBC News. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  25. "Élection partielle : un scrutin le 2 octobre dans Louis-Hébert". ICI.Radio-Canada.ca. August 30, 2017. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  26. Gagnon, Marc-André (October 2, 2017). "Les électeurs de Louis-Hébert optent pour le changement | JDQ". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  27. Bellerose, Patrick (May 16, 2017). "Proximité avec la firme Roche: Gaétan Lelièvre exclu du caucus du PQ | JDM". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  28. Blatchford, Andy (April 8, 2014). "Pauline Marois Resigns PQ Leadership After Crushing Defeat". HuffPost Canada. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  29. "PQ elects Stephane Bedard to interim leader post". CTV News. April 10, 2014. Retrieved April 10, 2014.
  30. "Pierre Karl Péladeau working to soften his image ahead of potential PQ leadership run". Montreal Gazette. September 26, 2014. Archived from the original on January 21, 2015. Retrieved January 27, 2019.
  31. "Pierre Karl Peladeau elected leader of Parti Quebecois". CTV News. May 15, 2015. Retrieved May 15, 2015.
  32. "Québec solidaire members to vote on starting merger talks with Option nationale". Montreal Gazette. March 24, 2017. Retrieved October 26, 2017.
  33. "Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, Manon Massé elected the new voices of Québec solidaire". Montreal Gazette. May 21, 2017. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  34. Incumbents Françoise David and Andrés Fontecilla did not seek reelection for a new mandate.
  35. "Québec Solidaire and Option Nationale reach agreement in principle to merge". Montreal Gazette. October 5, 2017. Retrieved October 26, 2017.
  36. Busque, Simon (June 15, 2018). "Paul Busque réintègre le caucus du Parti libéral". L'Éclaireur Progrès (in French). Archived from the original on June 16, 2018. Retrieved June 16, 2018.
  37. Fixed date, per section 6 of the Act respecting the National Assembly Archived May 12, 2018, at the Wayback Machine (CS, c. A-23.1): "A Legislature ends on 29 August of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the most recent general election polling day."
  38. Canadian Press (April 26, 2018). "Provincial party leaders face off in French language debate on Sept. 13". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  39. Election Act Archived May 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine (CS, c. E-3.3), section 237
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  41. "TVA et LCN présenteront le Face à Face des chefs". Groupe TVA. April 19, 2018. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  42. 14 members elected in the 2014 general election resigned from the National Assembly during the 41st Legislature, but two of them (Marguerite Blais and Christian Dubé) are candidates again in the 2018 general election.
  43. Grondin, Marie-Renée (June 2018). "44 députés élus en 2014 qui ne seront pas de la prochaine campagne électorale" [44 MNAs elected in 2014 who will not be in the next electoral campaign]. Le Journal de Québec (in French).
  44. Kestler-D'Amours, Jillian (August 22, 2018). "What's in a slogan? Quebec's 4 main parties try to entice voters with one word or more". CBC News. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
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  47. "Accueil". Coalitionavenirquebec.org. Retrieved September 7, 2018.
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  49. "Parti Vert du Québec". pvq.qc.ca. October 26, 2018. Archived from the original on October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  50. "Parti conservateur du Québec". particonservateurquebec.org. October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
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  63. Gagnon, Marc-André (February 8, 2018). "Le député libéral André Drolet annonce son retrait de la vie politique". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved February 8, 2018.
  64. Gagnon, Marc-André (March 18, 2018). "Raymond Bernier quitte la politique provinciale". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved March 18, 2018.
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  66. Bellerose, Patrick (January 16, 2018). "Agnès Maltais se retire également de la vie politique". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved January 16, 2018.
  67. "La ministre Julie Boulet quitte la vie politique". Radio-Canada. May 7, 2018. Retrieved May 7, 2018.
  68. "Le libéral Ghislain Bolduc annonce son retrait de la vie politique". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). March 16, 2018. Retrieved August 17, 2018.
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  70. "La députée libérale Karine Vallières quitte la politique pour sa famille". Le Journal de Québec (in French). February 5, 2018. Retrieved February 5, 2018.
  71. Chouinard, Tommy (January 23, 2018). "PLQ: le député Guy Hardy quitte la vie politique". La Presse (in French). Retrieved January 23, 2018.
  72. "La libérale Rita de Santis quitte la vie politique". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). June 28, 2018. Retrieved August 19, 2018.
  73. Sklavounos, Gerry (May 11, 2018). "Statement of Gerry Sklavounos concerning his political future". Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  74. "Québec Solidaire MNA Amir Khadir to leave politics". Montreal Gazette. May 4, 2018. Retrieved August 19, 2018.
  75. Bellerose, Patrick (January 15, 2018). "La péquiste Nicole Léger quitte la vie politique". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). Retrieved January 16, 2018.
  76. Lessard, Denis (May 1, 2018). "David Heurtel et Laurent Lessard partiront également". La Presse (in French). Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  77. Authier, Philip (June 10, 2018). "Longtime Liberal MNA Geoffrey Kelley will not seek re-election". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
  78. Lajoie, Geneviève (May 30, 2018). "Le départ de Robert Poëti cause la surprise". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved May 31, 2018.
  79. "Liberal party pushes out MNA Francois Ouimet". CTV News. August 15, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
  80. "Martin Coiteux ne sera pas candidat aux prochaines élections". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). April 27, 2018. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
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  82. "Jacques Chagnon devient le 18e député libéral à quitter la politique". Radio-Canada (in French). June 15, 2018. Retrieved June 15, 2018.
  83. "Stéphanie Vallée ne sera pas candidate aux prochaines élections" (in French). Radio-Canada. February 28, 2018. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  84. Gagnon, Marc-André (April 4, 2018). "André Spénard passera le flambeau dans Beauce-Nord". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  85. Clavel, Émilie (June 8, 2018). "Laurent Lessard confirme qu'il ne sera pas candidat aux prochaines élections provinciales". HuffPost Canada (in French). Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  86. "Pierre Paradis est réintégré au PLQ, mais ne se représentera pas comme candidat aux élections". Le Journal de Québec (in French). August 16, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
  87. Curtis, Christopher (September 5, 2018). "Quebec election: PQ candidate Guy Leclair resigns amid DUI charges". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved September 5, 2018.
  88. "Political parties". Élections Québec. Retrieved October 9, 2018.

Further reading


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