2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida

2018 United States Senate election in Florida

2018 United States Senate election in Florida

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was narrowly defeated by Republican Governor Rick Scott. The election was the closest Senate race in the state's history.[2]

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.
Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. The results showed that Nelson was narrowly trailing Scott, but the margin remained below 0.5%, triggering an automatic recount under Florida law. A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities. Following the recount, Florida elections officials confirmed Scott's victory on November 18, 2018. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast, or 0.12%. Both in terms of raw vote margin and by percentage of difference, this was the closest Senate election in the 2018 cycle. Scott's victory marked the first time since the Reconstruction era in 1875 that Republicans have held both Senate seats in Florida.[3]

Background

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson sought re-election in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida. The election was expected to be a key race in determining which party would control the U.S. Senate in 2019.[4]

As of the second quarter of 2018, Nelson had a 44%-34% approval rating among his constituents.[5] Despite having won re-election in 2012 by a 13% margin, Nelson was considered potentially vulnerable; he had been the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida since 2011, and his previous opponents, Connie Mack IV and Katherine Harris, were seen as much weaker challengers than Scott. Additionally, he was one of 10 incumbent Democratic senators running in states that had been carried by Donald Trump in 2016. Nelson was described as a "low-key centrist" that might not be able to energize progressive voters.[6]

After being encouraged by President Trump to enter the Senate race,[7] Republican governor of Florida Rick Scott announced his candidacy on April 9, 2018.[8] As of the first quarter of 2018, Scott held a 54%-35% approval rating[9] among his constituents, with a majority of Florida voters believing the state was moving in the right direction under Scott's administration. Republican President Donald Trump also held a positive approval rating of 49%-47% in Florida as of August 2018.[10] Trump had won the state in 2016 by 1.2% over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Scott had put more than $86 million of his own money into his successful 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial bids.[11]

Republican primary

The Republican primary was considered merely a formality, as Governor Scott's lone challenger was a perennial candidate who was running for Senate seats in eight other Republican primaries across the country. No other notable Republicans entered the race before or after Scott announced his candidacy.[12]

Candidates

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Eliminated in the primary

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling

Results

County results
  Scott
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
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Democratic primary

As both of Senator Nelson's primary opponents failed to qualify for the ballot, no Democratic primary was held.[12]

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Failed to qualify

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

American Independent Party

Candidates

Withdrew

Independents and write-ins

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

General election

According to The Cook Political Report, the race was one of the 10 most competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation.[60] It was also described as the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country.[61][62]

Scott's involvement in a large Medicare fraud case stirred controversy during the general election campaign.[63][64] Scott responded with ads accusing Nelson of having cut Medicare benefits and stolen from Medicare; fact-checkers found that both of Scott's assertions were "mostly false."[65][63] During the campaign, Scott characterize[s] Nelson as a "socialist"; PolitiFact described the assertion as "pants-on-fire" false.[66]

Gun control was a key issue in this race. The election came less than nine months after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, the deadliest school shooting in American history. Nelson also mentioned the Orlando nightclub shooting that occurred in June 2016 and killed 49 people, asserting that —"nothing was done" by Scott's administration. In the wake of Stoneman Douglas, Scott raised the age to purchase a gun from 18 to 21, set a three-day waiting period to purchase assault-style weapons, and banned bump stocks--moves that Nelson described as "doing the bare...minimum". The National Rifle Association of America opposed Scott's legislation.[67]

Environmental issues also took on a prominent role in the race. Scott and his administration had been heavily criticized for weakening regulations designed to protect the environment, even going as far as to instruct the FDEP not to use the words "climate change" or "global warming" in official reports.[68] Because of this, Scott was blamed for the state's worsening algae blooms, even being dubbed "Red Tide Rick" on social media. Scott blamed the toxic blooms on Nelson and on Congress' general inefficiency.[69]

During the campaign, Scott sought to avoid mentioning President Trump and at times criticized or distanced himself from actions of the Trump administration. Prior to the campaign, he had used his friendship with Trump to boost his profile, had been an early and vocal supporter of Trump in 2016,[70][71] and reportedly spoke to President Trump every one or two weeks.[70] Trump endorsed Scott in his Senate bid.[71]

Both Nelson's and Scott's responses to Hurricanes Irma and Michael (which made landfall in September 2017 and October 2018, respectively) were closely watched during the campaign season.[72]

Scott made Nelson's age an issue in the campaign.[73]

Debates

Endorsements

Rick Scott (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Statewide and territorial officials
State and territorial legislators
Sheriffs
Mayors
Municipal officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Bill Nelson (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Statewide and territorial officials
State legislators
Mayors
Other government officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Newspapers

Predictions

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Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018, Candidate (party) ...

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
with Pam Bondi

Initial results and recount

The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. Because Scott's lead over Nelson was less than 0.5% of the vote, an automatic recount was triggered under Florida law.[195][196] A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities.[197]

Nelson and Scott traded accusations of voter suppression and voter fraud.[198] Two lawsuits were filed by the Scott campaign after the election against the Supervisor of Elections in both Palm Beach and Broward Counties while the Nelson campaign filed one against the secretary of state in Florida. On November 9, the Scott campaign won both of their lawsuits.[199][200] Notably, election officials in Broward County had to receive police protection after accusations of voter fraud were made by a few members of Congress.[201]

Additionally, a number of mail-in ballots were found in a mail distribution center in the city of Opa-locka three days after the election. The Miami-Dade Elections Department considered the votes uncountable because they had not arrived at the department by the time the polls closed.[202]

The deadline for all ballots to be machine-counted was 3:00 pm EST on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The revised totals triggered a statewide hand-recount of rejected ballots. At least three counties (Broward, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach County) missed the deadline.[203][204] During machine counting, 846 votes from Hillsborough County were lost, presumably due to a power outage.[205][203] Machines purchased from Sequoia Voting Systems broke down, creating delays in the count of Palm Beach County votes.[206]

Results

Florida elections officials announced on November 18, 2018 that Scott had prevailed. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast. Nelson then conceded the race to Scott.[207]

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

Final results from Florida Division of Elections.[208]

More information County, Rick Scott (Republican) ...
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Analysis

Edison Research exit poll

More information Demographic subgroup, Nelson ...

Notes

  1. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  2. Includes "Refused"

See also

References

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    JAX Alliance [@JAXAlliance] (April 26, 2018). "The @USChamber, @FLChamber and @GoodGovtPAC — the Federal Political Committee of @JAXChamber — endorse @ScottforFlorida for U.S. Senate. "I've never seen someone work so hard to bring jobs to Florida." — @DanielDavisFl" (Tweet). Retrieved October 23, 2018 – via Twitter.
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    Petty, Ryan [@rpetty] (April 11, 2018). "I am thrilled to endorse my friend, Rick Scott for US Senate. @ScottforFlorida demonstrated true leadership in making our kids & teachers safer here in Florida. We need this same leadership in DC. Please join with me in supporting him for US Senate. #rickscottforsenate" (Tweet). Retrieved April 12, 2018 – via Twitter.
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    Pollack, Andrew [@AndrewPollackFL] (April 11, 2018). "I am proud to endorse my friend Governor Rick Scott for US Senate. @ScottforFlorida has helped me tremendously in my pursuit to make schools in America safe & secure. He signed the PS Bill 7026 that I advocated for after my daughter was killed at #MSD. He's a great man" (Tweet). Retrieved April 12, 2018 – via Twitter.
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    Pollack, Hunter [@PollackHunter] (August 1, 2018). "I have been working very closely with the Governor to establish the @Scott_Students initiative and it's already becoming a huge success! So glad to be apart of it. Please follow! #ScottForSenate" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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