The 2018 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 24 November 2018 to elect the 59th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) were up for election. The first-term incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Daniel Andrews, won a second four-year term, defeating the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy^[1] in a landslide victory. Minor party the Greens led by Samantha Ratnam also contested the election.

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2018 Victorian state election

← 2014 24 November 2018 2022 →
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council 45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority Information below is for the Assembly election.
First party Second party Third party   Leader Daniel Andrews Matthew Guy Samantha Ratnam Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens Leader since 3 December 2010 4 December 2014 12 October 2017 Leader's seat Mulgrave Bulleen MLC for Northern Metropolitan Last election 47 seats 38 seats 2 seats Seats before 45 37 3 Seats won 55 27 3 Seat change 10 10 First preference vote 1,506,460 1,236,912 376,470 Percentage 42.86% 35.20% 10.71% Swing 4.77 6.80 0.77 TPP 57.30% 42.70% TPP swing 5.31 5.31
Results in each electorate.
Premier before election Daniel Andrews Labor Premier after election Daniel Andrews Labor

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Labor won 55 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, an increase of eight seats from the previous election in 2014, and a majority of 22 seats. This was the fifth time that a Labor government was re-elected in Victoria, and it tied Victorian Labor's second-best showing at the state level. The Coalition suffered an 11-seat swing against it, and won 27 seats. The Greens won 3 seats, a net increase of 1 seat since the last election though equal to the share of seats they held when the election was called. The remaining three seats on the crossbench were won by independents.^[2] In the Legislative Council, Labor won 18 seats, three short of a majority. The Coalition won 11 seats, and the remaining 11 seats were won by a range of minor parties from across the political spectrum.^[2]

Several days after Labor's victory, the Second Andrews Ministry was sworn in by the Governor and was notable for featuring an equal number of men and women.^[3] The following week the Liberal Party elected Michael O'Brien leader of the party, who became Opposition Leader in the new parliament, after Guy had announced earlier he would stand down from the position.^[4]

For the election, Victoria had compulsory voting and used majoritarian preferential voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and Single transferable vote (STV) in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council had 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, was 16.7% (one-sixth) of the valid votes cast in that district. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), an independent body answerable to parliament.

Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November.^[5][6] The incumbent government entered into caretaker mode at 6:00 pm on Tuesday, 30 October 2018, when writs were officially issued.^[7]

Key dates for the election are:^[8][9]

• 30 October: Writs issued by the Governor of Victoria
• 31 October: Opening of nominations for all candidates
• 6 November: Close of electoral roll
• 8 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
• 9 November: Close of nominations for independent candidates
• 12 November: Early voting begins
• 24 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)
• 30 November: Last day for receipt of postal votes
• 15 December: Last day for return of writs.

The following Mackerras pendulum lists seats in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 election results.^[15] The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10% to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10%, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6%.^[16]

At the close of nominations, there were 23 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), of which 21 contested the election:^[17]

Nominations of candidates opened on 31 October 2018. Nominations for party candidates closed on 8 November, and for independent candidates on 9 November.

A total of 887 candidates nominated for the election, down from 896 at the 2014 election. There were 507 candidates for the Legislative Assembly, the second-highest number on record, down from 545 in 2014. The 380 candidates for the Legislative Council was the highest number of upper house candidates in a Victorian election, up from 351 in 2014.^[18]

On 28 October both Labor and the Coalition launched their campaigns, with Labor making health, paramedics and improved ambulance response times a priority, while the Coalition focused on cutting taxes, better managing population growth and cracking down on crime.^[41] Labor and the Coalition pledged $23.3 billion and $24.8 billion respectively, more than double pledged during the 2010 and 2014 elections, excluding the proposed Suburban Rail Loop and high speed rail for regional services which would require future governments to fund.^[42] Labor pledged to invest substantially more money than the Coalition in health, with $1.3bn in promises to boost nursing numbers and $395.8m to provide every state school student with free dental check-ups and procedures and $232m to build seven new early parenting centres; in contrast to the Coalition whose signature health policy was constructing a new hospital in Warragul, the biggest city in the rapidly expanding West Gippsland region.^[43]

The Coalition's leading message of the campaign was to "get back in control" of the state's allegedly burgeoning crime problem. The party promised tougher bail conditions than Labor, saying that anyone who breaches bail will be jailed. In addition mandatory sentencing would become more commonplace, with minimum sentences for repeat violent offenders and people deemed possible terror threats could be forced to wear electronic monitoring devices, a proposal made after the stabbing attack in the city which occurred during the campaign.^[43] The divisions between the parties over social issues were pronounced, as the Coalition promised to axe the safe injecting room in Richmond, the Safe Schools program for LGBTI children in state secondary schools and the process for a formalised treaty for Indigenous Victorians.^[44] The Coalition also promised to reinstate religious instruction classes in state schools, something removed from classes and made an opt-in process by Labor.^[43]

Arguably the most pressing issue of the campaign was public transport and infrastructure. Melbourne's record population growth of more than 125,000 people a year made both party leaders focus on big transport initiatives. Labor unveiled a $50 billion underground rail loop of the suburbs surrounding the city, though admitted the project would not be completed before 2050 and actually pledged $300 million for a business study.^[43] The Coalition instead proposed a $19 billion "European-style" regional rail network that would rebuild the entire network and include high-speed rail on four lines, travelling up to 200 km an hour.^[43] Both parties agreed on the West Gate Tunnel, North East Link and Metro Rail projects, though the Coalition pledged to bring back the defunct East West Link project which was scrapped at a cost of $1 billion by the Labor Government.^[43]

Minor party the Greens sought to expand their numbers in parliament and make further gains in inner-city/suburban seats held by Labor such as Albert Park, Brunswick and Richmond. The party proposed a dedicated bike "superlane" stretching 17 kilometres from Elsternwick railway station to Coburg, as well as further cycling routes connecting Box Hill and Richmond, Ringwood and Croydon and a connection from the Burwood Highway through to Knox and Deakin University.^[45] Overall, most Greens policies were more closely aligned with Labor policies than the Coalition,^[43] a fact acknowledged by Greens leader Samantha Ratnam who said she would seek to negotiate with Labor to form government in the event of a hung parliament.^[46] Labor leader Daniel Andrews reacted negatively to this possibility saying "no deal will be offered" and criticising the Greens for allegedly "refusing to call out denigration of women", in reference to past sexist comments made by the Greens candidate for the seat of Footscray, Angus McAlpine.^[47]

The total number of people who voted early in the last two weeks of the campaign was 1,639,202, which made up 40% of the eligible voting population.^[48]

Michael O'Brien replaced Matthew Guy as leader of the opposition following Guy's resignation. Daniel Andrews would remain Premier until 2023 Victorian state Liberal President Michael Kroger resigned following the election result and the Liberals defeat.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-30/michael-kroger-victorian-liberal-party-president-resigns/10573382