A motion of no confidence in the Spanish government of Mariano Rajoy was debated and voted in the Congress of Deputies between 31 May and 1 June 2018. It was brought by Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez after the governing People's Party (PP) was found to have profited from the illegal kickbacks-for-contracts scheme of the Gürtel case in a court ruling made public the previous day. This was the fourth motion of no confidence since the Spanish transition to democracy and the first one to be successful,^[1] as well the second to be submitted against Mariano Rajoy after Unidos Podemos's motion the previous year.^[2][3] Coincidentally, it was held 38 years after the first such vote of no confidence in Spain on 30 May 1980.

The motion successfully passed with the support of 180 deputies—those of PSOE, Unidos Podemos, Republican Left of Catalonia, Catalan European Democratic Party, Basque Nationalist Party, Compromís, EH Bildu and New Canaries—and resulted in the downfall of Mariano Rajoy's government and in Pedro Sánchez becoming new Prime Minister of Spain.^[4] Public opinion at the time was found to be overwhelmingly in favour of the motion, as revealed by polling conducted in the days previous and during the events leading to the vote. Subsequently, on 5 June, Rajoy announced his resignation as PP leader and his withdrawal from politics after having led the party for 14 years,^[5] vacating his seat in parliament and returning to his position as property registrar in Santa Pola.^[6][7] Prior to his ouster, Rajoy had hinted at the possibility that he might not seek re-election for a third term in office, with his ultimate farewell sparking a leadership contest that would see Pablo Casado being elected as new party chairman.

Before the unveiling of the court ruling that led to the motion's tabling, the Citizens (Cs) party of Albert Rivera had been in the lead in opinion polling for the most part of 2018. Rivera's erratic attitude during the lead up to the motion and its ultimate result—which saw his party voting against it—were widely regarded by media and political commentators as causing political initiative to shift from Cs towards Sánchez's PSOE, which would go on to win all elections held over the next year: general, local, regional and to the European Parliament. The failed 2019 government formation process and the electoral repetition in November that year would ultimately see a collapse in support for Cs and Rivera's resignation as party leader.

The motion was registered by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) on 25 May 2018, one day after the governing People's Party (PP) was found by the National Court during their investigation of the Gürtel case to have profited from an illegal kickbacks-for-contracts scheme, with the confirmation of the existence of an illegal accounting and financing structure that ran in parallel with the party's official one since its foundation in 1989.^[8][9][10] The Court had ruled that the PP helped establish "an authentic and efficient system of institutional corruption via mechanisms to manipulate public tenders at the national, regional and local level",^[11][12] while judging that Mariano Rajoy had not been "truthful" in his testimony as a witness during the trial.^[13][14] The severity of the ruling had prompted Rajoy's then-major parliamentary ally, Citizens (Cs), to publicly withdraw its confidence and supply support from the government and proclaim it as marking "a before and an after" in Spanish politics, prior to the motion's tabling by the PSOE.^[15][16]

The judicial ruling was the last in a series of corruption scandals that had beleaguered the minority PP government following the troubling 2016 government formation process.^[17][18] Joining the string of corruption investigations unveiled in April 2017—that had seen a previous, unsuccessful motion of no confidence being tabled by Unidos Podemos (the political alliance of Podemos and United Left) in June that year—was the transpiring of evidence in March 2018 that Madrilenian president Cristina Cifuentes could have obtained a master's degree in the King Juan Carlos University through fraudulent means, which evolved into a full-fledged scandal by April as both the university and Cifuentes's regional government were found attempting to cover up the scandal through document forgery.^[19][20][21] The affair, together with the leaking of a 2011 video showing her being detained in a supermarket for shoplifting, ultimately contributed to Cifuentes announcing her resignation on 25 April 2018.^[22] On 22 May, two days before the National Court's ruling on the Gürtel case was made public, former Valencian president Eduardo Zaplana was arrested by the Civil Guard as a result of ongoing investigations for alleged money laundering and bribery crimes.^[23][24]

Since the tabling of Podemos's motion in June 2017, events other than corruption scandals had also contributed to the weakening of Rajoy and his government's stand in society. Among others, the constitutional crisis starting in September 2017 over the Catalan government's attempt to hold an independence referendum contrary to the Constitution and diverse judicial rulings, as well as the enforcement of direct rule over Catalonia as a result. The subsequent 21 December regional election (which saw the more pro-union Cs benefitting from a plummeting in the PP vote) led to the former surging to first place in nationwide opinion polls as well as to an alienation of parties supportive of Catalan independence—namely, Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT)—further away from the national government's positions.^[25] Cs's surge in opinion polls had also seen the fading out of the main opposition party, the PSOE, and its leader, Pedro Sánchez—not a deputy in Congress since his resignation as such in October 2016—who found himself needing to recover the political initiative for his party.^[26][27]

Finally, on 23 May 2018, the day before the ruling's publication, Mariano Rajoy and his government were able to get their budget for that year passed through the Congress of Deputies in a tight 176–171 vote, with the decisive support of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) having been secured through a last-hour deal.^[28][29][30] This was despite the latter having pledged not to do so as long as direct rule was being enforced over Catalonia,^[31] thus theoretically ensuring the stability of the government until 2020.^[13][32] Rajoy's continuity in power beyond that year had sparked an internal debate within the party, as he had hinted at the possibility that he might not seek re-election for a third term in office.^[33][34]

The Spanish Constitution of 1978 required for motions of no confidence to be proposed by at least one-tenth of the Congress of Deputies—35 out of 350. Following the German model, votes of no confidence in Spain were constructive, so the motion was required to include an alternative candidate for prime minister.^[35] For a motion of no confidence to be successful, it had to be passed by an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies. A minimum period of five days from the motion's registration (dubbed as "cooling period") was required to pass before it could come up for a vote, but no maximum was established. Other parties were entitled to submit alternative motions within the first two days from the registration.^[36][37]

1. The Congress of Deputies may challenge Government policy by passing a motion of censure by an absolute majority of its members.
2. The motion of censure must be proposed by at least one tenth of the Deputies, including a candidate for the office of President of the Government.
3. The motion of censure may not be voted on until five days after it has been submitted. During the first two days of this period, alternative motions may be submitted.
4. If the motion of censure is not passed by the Congress, its signatories may not submit another during the same session.

— Article 113 of the Spanish Constitution^[38]

Concurrently, the Prime Minister was barred from dissolving the Cortes Generales and calling a general election while a motion of no confidence was pending. If the motion was successful, the incumbent prime minister and their government were required to submit their resignation to the Monarch, while the candidate proposed in the motion was automatically considered to have the confidence of the Congress of Deputies and immediately appointed as prime minister. If unsuccessful, the signatories of the motion were barred from submitting another during the same session.^[37][38]

The procedure for motions of no confidence was regulated within Articles 175 to 179 of the Standing Orders of the Congress of Deputies, which provided for the debate on the motion starting with its defence by one of the signatory members without any time limitations, to be followed by an also time-unlimited speech by the nominated candidate to explain their political programme. Subsequently, spokespeople from the different parliamentary groups in Congress were allowed to speak for thirty minutes, with an opportunity to reply or rectify themselves for ten minutes. Members of the government were allowed to take the floor and speak at any time of their request during the debate.^[39]

Opinion polling conducted in the days leading to and during the events of the vote of no confidence showed a large support in favour of the motion. PSOE and Podemos voters were found to be overwhelmingly in support of it, whereas PP voters mostly rejected the move. In contrast, Cs voters were found to be more frequently divided on the issue, rejecting the continuity of Rajoy's government but not being supportive of a new cabinet headed by Sánchez.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Opinion on the motion of no confidence

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Support	Reject	Neither	?	Notes
YouGov/La Vanguardia[83]	29–31 May 2018	1,001	58.0	26.0	—	17.0	[lower-alpha 1]
Invymark/laSexta[84]	28–29 May 2018	?	58.6	38.1	—	3.3	[lower-alpha 2]
IMOP/El Confidencial[85]	25–27 May 2018	756	54.6	35.4	8.8	1.2	[lower-alpha 3]
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[86]	24 May 2018	514	89.9	10.1	—	—	[lower-alpha 4]

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With the passage of the motion—the first to be successful in Spain since the first such vote of no confidence on 30 May 1980, exactly 38 years earlier^[87]—Mariano Rajoy and his government were required to step down. As Sánchez was automatically deemed to have the confidence of parliament, he was formally appointed as prime minister later that day.^[88][89] Rajoy subsequently announced his resignation as PP leader and his farewell from politics on 5 June, triggering a leadership contest to determine his successor,^[90][91] whereas Sánchez would unveil his new cabinet two days later on 7 June.^[92] On 21 July 2018, the until-then PP party's vice secretary-general of communication and deputy for Ávila, Pablo Casado was elected over Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría as Rajoy's successor at the helm of the PP.^[93]

Various media regarded it decisive that Rajoy and Congress speaker Ana Pastor had chosen to hold the vote immediately after the registration of the motion. Envisaged as a move aimed at thwarting the motion by limiting the time available for negotiations to occur, it instead led to opposition parties being forced to hastily decide their public stance on the vote.^[41] Without time for any clashes or disputes to take place over programmatic contents or political concessions—which could have ensued during a prolonged period of multi-party negotiations, potentially leading to the initiative's failure—parties contrary to the PP government found their common rejection of Rajoy's premiership as the sole deciding factor at stake, turning the vote into a sort of ultimatum on whether to accept or reject Rajoy rather than a consideration of Sánchez's potential candidacy.^[55][58] This had the effect of turning the motion, envisaged in the Spanish legal system as constructive, into a "destructive" one, precipitating the downfall of Rajoy and his government.^[94]

The motion success had a sizeable impact in Spanish society. The PSOE, which languished in opinion polls conducted prior to the events surrounding the motion, and which had not won an election at the national level since 2008, was propelled to first place nationally in opinion polling, subsequently going on to win the April 2019 general election as well as the May 2019 local, regional and European Parliament elections.^[41] In contrast, the PP continued its stark decline in public support, with disenchanted voters shifting to support the newly-resurgent far-right Vox party—a trend accentuated after Vox's surprise entry into the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of the December 2018 regional election. Vox eventually entered the national, European and many regional parliaments and local councils for the first time throughout 2019.^[95]

The result of the vote and the motion itself were also regarded as a major blow to Cs's strategical prospects,^[96] with the party going from leading most opinion polls during the first part of 2018 to being overshadowed by the new prime minister's rising popularity and media prominence.^[27][97] From that point onwards, Cs leader Albert Rivera—whose decision to promptly withdraw his party's support from Rajoy's government after the unveiling of the Gürtel sentence was said to unwittingly contribute to Sánchez's move to table the motion^[96][60]—lost the political initiative and, after a brief success in the April 2019 general election (in which his party came nine seats short of overcoming Casado's PP as the main opposition force in Spain), would be forced to resign and withdraw from politics following his party's meltdown in the election of November 2019.^[60]