2019_Madrilenian_regional_election

2019 Madrilenian regional election

2019 Madrilenian regional election

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The 2019 Madrilenian regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 11th Assembly of the Community of Madrid. All 132 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

Quick Facts All 132 seats in the Assembly of Madrid 67 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...

As a result of the election, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) emerged as the largest political party in a Madrilenian regional election for the first time since 1987, but failed short of securing a majority together with Íñigo Errejón's Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos, the latter of which barely surpassed the 5% threshold to win seats in the Assembly. Instead, a right-of-centre alliance between the People's Party (PP), Citizens (Cs) and far-right Vox was able to muster a majority to form a government, which resulted in the election of PP candidate Isabel Díaz Ayuso as new regional president.

Overview

Electoral system

The Assembly of Madrid was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Madrid, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Madrilenian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Madrilenians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

All members of the Assembly of Madrid were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. The Assembly was entitled to one member per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000.[1][3] As a result of the increased population in the region, the number of seats up for election increased from 129 to 132.

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous election, with elections to the Assembly being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 26 May 2019.[1][3][4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution.[5] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 11 June.[6]

Background

On 21 March 2018, it transpired that President Cristina Cifuentes could have obtained a master's degree in the King Juan Carlos University through fraudulent means.[7] What initially started off as a suspicion that she could have faked her CV,[8] developed into a major scandal after a series of irregularities in the obtaining of the academic title were revealed, as well as the subsequent attempt from both the university and the regional government to cover up the scandal through document forgery.[9][10] Preliminary probing revealed evidence of possible criminal offenses that were subsequently put under investigation of the judiciary, questioning Cifuentes's continuity as regional premier.[11][12][13] After the release of a 2011 video showing her being detained in a supermarket for shoplifting, Cifuentes resigned on 25 April 2018.[14] She was succeeded by her deputy, Ángel Garrido,[15][16] who was sworn into office on 21 May.[17][18] Cifuentes's scandal joined many others in a long list of corruption cases beleaguering the ruling People's Party (PP) in Spain that ended up with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's downfall on 1 June through a vote of no confidence in the Congress of Deputies.[19][20]

On 17 January 2019, Podemos suffered a major split after it was announced that Carmena and Íñigo Errejón, Podemos candidate for regional president and one of Podemos founders, had agreed to launch a joint platform to run at the regional election.[21][22][23][24] Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias announced later that day that he no longer considered Errejón as the party's candidate in the region for placing himself "outside Podemos" by renouncing the party's trademark, and that Podemos and IU would contest the regional election on their own even if that meant to compete against Más Madrid and, therefore, against Errejón.[25][26] Podemos leaders also urged Errejón to resign his seat in the Congress of Deputies,[27] considering his move as "deceitful" and "a betrayal" to the party.[28] On 21 January, Errejón vacated his seat in the Congress,[29][30] but still called for Podemos, IU and Equo to join the Más Madrid platform.[31] On 25 January, Ramón Espinar, the regional Podemos Secretary-General, announced his resignation and his farewell from politics, allegedly after the party's national leadership deprived Espinar's regional branch of any autonomy to attempt negotiations with Errejón's platform for either running in a joint list or agreeing on a coordinated political action.[32][33][34] On 24 April, four days before the April 2019 Spanish general election, former president of the Community of Madrid Ángel Garrido announced his break up from the PP and his integration within Cs lists for the election.[35]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Assembly at the time of dissolution.[36]

More information Groups, Parties ...

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

More information Candidacy, Parties and alliances ...

Campaign

Election debates

More information Date, Organisers ...

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 24 May 2015 to 26 May 2019, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 67 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (65 until January 2019).

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Results

Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...
More information Popular vote ...
More information Seats ...

Elected legislators

The following table lists the elected legislators sorted by order of election.[51]

More information Elected legislators, # ...

Aftermath

Further information: First government of Isabel Díaz Ayuso
More information Ballot →, 14 August 2019 ...

Isabel Díaz Ayuso's administration represented several historical firsts for the Community of Madrid: it was the first time that the region was run by a coalition government—Ayuso's own conservative People's Party (PP) and the center-right Citizens (Cs)—and it was the first time that the far-right, represented by Vox, propped up a regional executive in the Community. A similar governing arrangement was set up in the southern regions of Andalusia and Murcia.[53]

Notes

  1. Results for Podemos (18.64%, 27 seats) and IUCM–LV (4.16%, 0 seats) in the 2015 election.
  2. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  3. Within Unidas Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. [p 1]
    "Gabilondo gana en la Comunidad y Carmena en el Ayuntamiento, según el sondeo de Telemadrid". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 26 May 2019.
  2. [p 2]
    "La izquierda podría gobernar en la Comunidad de Madrid y lograría revalidar el Ayuntamiento por la mínima". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 26 May 2019.
  3. [p 3]
    "#emojiPanel Comunidad de Madrid (24M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 May 2019.
  4. [p 4]
    "#emojiPanel Comunidad de Madrid (23M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 May 2019.
  5. [p 5]
    "#emojiPanel Comunidad de Madrid (22M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 May 2019.
  6. [p 6]
    "#emojiPanel Comunidad de Madrid (21M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 May 2019.
  7. [p 7]
    "La Comunidad de Madrid pendiente de dos escaños: el centro y la derecha recortan distancias". El Español (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  8. [p 8]
    "El PSOE gana en Madrid, pero la suma de PP, Cs y Vox lo aleja de Sol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  9. [p 9]
    "Resultados por comunidades. Encuesta mayo 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 May 2019. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
  10. [P 10]
    "Encuesta electoral: Ajustada batalla entre bloques el 26-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  11. [P 11]
    "La izquierda recorta terreno pero Ayuso podría retener el Gobierno". ABC (in Spanish). 19 May 2019.
  12. [P 12]
    "#emojiPanel Comunidad de Madrid (20M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  13. [P 13]
    "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones autonómicas en Madrid, y Más Madrid las municipales". Top Position (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  14. [P 14]
    "Encuesta Top Position: El PSOE ganaría las elecciones autonómicas en Madrid, y Más Madrid las municipales". Noticias de Madrid (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  15. [P 15]
    "El PSOE gana en Madrid 32 años después, pero necesitaría a Errejón y a Podemos". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  16. [P 16]
    "Carmena, Gabilondo y el pinchazo de Vox". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  17. [P 17]
    "El PP recupera voto de Vox en Madrid y mantiene un durísimo pulso con Gabilondo". ESdiario (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
  18. [P 18]
    "#electoPanel Com. de Madrid (18M): subida de Errejón, que supera a Vox y acecha a UP. Sorpasso del PP a Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
  19. [P 19]
    "La derecha podría ganar el Ayuntamiento y la Comunidad de Madrid pese al empate técnico". Público (in Spanish). 15 May 2019.
  20. [P 20]
    "Todo abierto en la Comunidad de Madrid: empate técnico entre izquierda y derecha". El Independiente (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
  21. [P 21]
    "Gabilondo sería el más votado, pero el centroderecha podría gobernar la Comunidad de Madrid". 20minutos (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  22. [P 22]
    "PP, Cs y Vox logran retener la Comunidad y arrebatan a Carmena el Ayuntamiento". La Información (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  23. [P 23]
    "El PSOE reconquistará la Comunidad de Madrid después de 24 años". El Mundo (in Spanish). 15 May 2019.
  24. [P 24]
    "#electoPanel Com. Madrid (15M): doble empate Cs-PP y UP-Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 May 2019.
  25. [P 25]
    "Encuesta: PP, Cs y Vox podrían sumar en la Comunidad de Madrid". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2019.
  26. [P 26]
    "#electoPanel Com. de Madrid (12M): la subida de UP y PSOE acercan a las izquierdas al Gobierno autonómico". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
  27. [P 27]
    "#electoPanel Comunidad de Madrid (9M): sorpasso de Vox a UP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  28. [P 28]
    "#electoPanel Com. de Madrid (6M): a Ayuso 'se le atasca' la Presidencia por el adelanto de Ciudadanos, que se acerca al PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2019.
  29. [P 29]
    "Estimaciones de voto en Comunidades Autónomas y grandes ciudades (Estudio nº 3245. Marzo-abril 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  30. [P 30]
    "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
  31. [P 31]
    "Vox se convierte en la tercera fuerza política en la Comunidad de Madrid, según el sondeo Madriddata". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 8 April 2019.
  32. [P 32]
    "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
  33. [P 33]
    "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
  34. [P 34]
    "[Exclusiva] Vox acecha a Ciudadanos en los sondeos internos del PP de Madrid para la CAM y el Ayto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 March 2019.
  35. [P 35]
    "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
  36. [P 36]
    "El PSOE crece y ganaría las elecciones autonómicas de Madrid del 26 de mayo". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 18 March 2019.
  37. [P 37]
    "Sondeo interno PP Madrid: el tripartito podría gobernar la CAM. Vox entra en el 'cinturón rojo', que sigue en manos de la izquierda". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 March 2019.
  38. [P 38]
    "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
  39. [P 39]
    "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
  40. [P 40]
    "Vox acorta espacio a Cs mientras PP y PSOE se disputan la victoria en la Comunidad de Madrid". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 18 February 2019.
  41. [P 41]
    "[Exclusiva electomanía] Sondeo interno del PP para la Comunidad de Madrid: ajustada mayoría para PP+Cs+Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 February 2019.
  42. [P 42]
    "Mayoría absoluta de derechas". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 February 2019.
  43. [P 43]
    "La candidatura de Errejón superaría a la de Podemos por la mínima y las tres derechas acarician la mayoría en Madrid". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 30 January 2019.
  44. [P 44]
    "Errejón divide a Podemos en Madrid y sale vencedor en intención de voto". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 4 February 2019.
  45. [P 45]
    "ElectoPanel express Com. de Madrid: Errejón se llevaría la mayoría del voto de Podemos y dejaría a los de Iglesias sin escaños. Vox, segunda fuerza política". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 January 2019.
  46. [P 46]
    "Encuestas: VOX, segunda fuerza política en la Comunidad de Madrid". ElDebate.es (in Spanish). 18 January 2019.
  47. [P 47]
    "Triple empate electoral en Madrid, con Ciudadanos como clave de los futuros pactos". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 21 January 2019.
  48. [P 48]
    "Tertulia de Federico: Campaña de La Sexta contra VOX". esRadio (in Spanish). 10 December 2018.
  49. [P 49]
    "Vox obtendría 17 escaños en la Comunidad de Madrid, según una encuesta que maneja el Partido Popular". El Español (in Spanish). 10 December 2018.
  50. [P 50]
    "ElectoPanel Comunidad de Madrid (Dic): Vox lograría 20 escaños y forzaría a Ciudadanos a elegir entre PSOE o tripartito de derechas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 December 2018.
  51. [P 51]
    "ElectoPanel Comunidad de Madrid: Victoria del PSOE, sorpasso de C's al PP y Vox a una décima de los 6 escaños". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 November 2018.
  52. [P 52]
    "Estimación Mayo 2018. Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 8 May 2018.
  53. [P 53]
    "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta SyM Consulting. May 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 May 2018.
  54. [P 54]
    "El caso Cifuentes amplía la brecha entre Cs y PP en Madrid de 7 a 15 escaños". El Español (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
  55. [P 55]
    "Ciudadanos ganaría en la Comunidad de Madrid y podría gobernar con PP o PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
  56. [P 56]
    "Radiografía del voto (Abril 2018)". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
  57. [P 57]
    "Barómetro de laSexta: el PP se hunde hasta ser la tercera fuerza en Madrid, donde Ciudadanos ganaría las elecciones". laSexta (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
  58. [P 58]
    "Ciudadanos gana en la Comunidad de Madrid y puede pactar con PP o PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 30 April 2018.
  59. [P 59]
    "El PP pierde la mitad de sus votantes en la Comunidad de Madrid tras el 'caso Cifuentes'". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
  60. [P 60]
    "El 'caso Cifuentes' hunde al PP y dispara a Ciudadanos en Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 26 April 2018.
  61. [P 61]
    "Situación política de la Comunidad de Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 26 April 2018.
  62. [P 62]
    "El Partido Popular perdería el Gobierno de Madrid en beneficio de Ciudadanos tras el escándalo Cifuentes". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 21 April 2018.
  63. [P 63]
    "Una encuesta de Cs dice que el 66% de los votantes quiere que Cifuentes dimita". 20minutos (in Spanish). 12 April 2018.
  64. [P 64]
    "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo Ciudadanos. Abril 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 April 2018.
  65. [P 65]
    "El 52% de los votantes de Cs apoya la moción a Cifuentes, según un sondeo de Ferraz". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 12 April 2018.
  66. [P 66]
    "Sondeo Equipo MEG abril 2018 para la Comunidad de Madrid". PSOE (in Spanish). 12 April 2018.
  67. [P 67]
    "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo PSOE. Abril 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 April 2018.
  68. [P 68]
    "Cs ganaría hoy a Cifuentes y podría gobernar Madrid con el PP o con el PSOE". El Español (in Spanish). 4 April 2018.
  69. [P 69]
    "Estimación Marzo 2018. Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 13 March 2018.
  70. [P 70]
    "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 March 2018.
  71. [P 71]
    "Cifuentes sube tres escaños tras la crisis de la "operación Lezo"". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 May 2017. Archived from the original on 2 May 2017. Retrieved 2 May 2017.
  72. [P 72]
    "Intención de voto en la Comunidad de Madrid. Encuesta NC Report abril 2017" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 2 May 2017. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2017. Retrieved 2 May 2017.
  73. [P 73]
    "El PP seguiría siendo el partido más votado en la Comunidad de Madrid pero tendría difícil gobernar". La Sexta (in Spanish). 2 May 2017.
  74. [P 74]
    "El PP se desploma en Madrid pero crece el apoyo a Cristina Cifuentes". El País (in Spanish). 1 May 2017.
  75. [P 75]
    "Sondeo de la Comunidad de Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 30 April 2017.
  76. [P 76]
    "¿Qué pasaría si se celebrasen elecciones autonómicas en Madrid?". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 4 May 2017.
Other
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