Previous election

At the 2016 election, the one-term incumbent Country Liberal Party (CLP) minority government, led by Chief Minister Adam Giles, was defeated by the Labor Party Opposition, led by Opposition Leader Michael Gunner. The CLP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the history of the Territory, and one of the worst defeats of a sitting government in the history of Australia. It was the first time that a sitting Northern Territory government was defeated after only one term. From 11 seats at dissolution (and 16 after the 2012 election), the CLP suffered the worst election performance in its history, winning only two seats. Labor won 18 seats, in the process winning the third-largest majority government in Territory history. Independents won five seats. With only two members in the CLP caucus, Gary Higgins became opposition leader and CLP leader while Lia Finocchiaro became deputy CLP leader on 2 September. Although the independent MPs outnumbered the CLP MPs, on official advice the CLP was recognised as the official opposition.^[7]

Additionally, Giles lost his seat of Braitling to Labor, making him only the second Chief Minister/Majority Leader and the third CLP leader to lose their seat at an election. Along with the seat of Katherine, the election represented the first time Labor had won a seat in Alice Springs or Katherine.^[8]

With the overall result beyond doubt, Gunner had himself, Natasha Fyles, and Nicole Manison sworn in as an interim three-person government on 31 August until the full Gunner Ministry could be sworn in on 12 September.^[9][10][11]

The position of Speaker of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly had been held by former CLP-turned-independent MP Kezia Purick since 23 October 2012. Despite Labor's massive majority following the 2016 election, the incoming Labor government re-appointed Purick as Speaker.^[12]

Labor expulsions

The composition of the Assembly was unchanged for over two years, with Labor Party holding 18 seats, the Country Liberal Party two and the remaining five by independents. In December 2018, the Labor Government dismissed three sitting members of the parliamentary party; the Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Vowles, Assistant Minister Jeff Collins and backbencher Scott McConnell.^[13] The trio were dismissed after publicly criticising the government's handling of the territory's long-term economic situation, following a report finding the budget to be in "structural deficit" with expenditure struggling to cover previous borrowings and day-to-day costs.^[14] They consequently became independents and sat on the crossbench. McConnell later announced he would not re-contest his seat at the election, though did end up running for the adjacent seat of Braitling.^[15]

Territory Alliance founding

In August 2019, Terry Mills, the independent member for the seat of Blain, announced the formation of a new regionalist big tent party known as Territory Alliance.^[16] Mills had previously been the leader of the CLP and was Chief Minister of the Northern Territory following the Country Liberal Party's (CLP) victory at the 2012 election. He was usurped for the leadership of the party by Adam Giles only six months into his Chief Ministership, defeated 11–5 in a party-room ballot. With Mills' presence in the Assembly, the new Territory Alliance held one seat. This increased to three seats in March 2020 when Jeff Collins (expelled by Labor in December 2018) and Robyn Lambley (the former deputy CLP leader who was re-elected as an independent in 2016) announced they had joined the party, taking Territory Alliance's representation in the Assembly to three seats.^[17] With more members in the Assembly than the CLP, Alliance sought to claim official opposition status, though they were defeated 5–3 in a secret Assembly ballot of non-Government MPs and the CLP retained opposition status, with Lia Finocchiaro remaining as Opposition Leader.^[18][19]

Johnston by-election

With Scott McConnell having announced his retirement at the election and Jeff Collins becoming a member of the Territory Alliance, Ken Vowles, the remaining member of the Labor trio to be expelled by the party, announced his immediate resignation from the Assembly in November 2019.^[20] This decision necessitated a by-election in the seat of Johnston to replace Vowles. The by-election was held on 29 February 2020 and was won by Labor candidate Joel Bowden, who claimed 52.6% of the two-candidate preferred vote. Labor's primary vote collapsed more than 21 points, making the seat a marginal contest at the general election. The Territory Alliance candidate usurped the Greens and CLP candidates into second place (47.4% of the two-candidate preferred vote), with the CLP primary vote dropping by more than 15 points and the party finishing in fourth place.

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the election were:^[22]

• 30 July 2020: Issue of the writ
• 30 July 2020: Nominations for candidates opened
• 31 July 2020: Electoral roll for voters closed (5:00 pm)
• 6 August 2020: Nominations for candidates closed
• 6 August 2020: Declaration of nominations and candidate positions on ballot papers
• 10 August 2020: Early voting and mobile voting commenced
• 10 August 2020: Applications for postal voting opened
• 20 August 2020: Postal voting dispatches ceased
• 21 August 2020: Last day for early voting
• 22 August 2020: Polling Day
• 4 September 2020: Last day for receipt of postal votes
• 7 September 2020: Declaration of election result
• TBD: Return of writ

Notes

• This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analyst Antony Green.^[26]
• Members listed in italics are retiring at the 2020 election.

Post-election pendulum

Voting intention

Labor

• Gerry McCarthy (Barkly) – announced 12 May 2020^[30]
• Sandra Nelson (Katherine) – announced 20 March 2019^[31]

Country Liberal

• Gary Higgins (Daly) – announced 20 January 2020^[32]

Independent

• Gerry Wood (Nelson) – announced 15 February 2019^[33]

Results summary

More information Party, Votes ...

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)^[35][36]

Party			Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-
	Labor		40,291	39.43	2.76	14	4
	Country Liberal		32,021	31.34	0.46	8	6
	Territory Alliance		13,184	12.90	New	1	1
	Independents		10,977	10.74	8.09	2	3
	Greens		4,453	4.46	1.49	0
	Australian Federation		942	0.92	New	0
	Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water		226	0.22	3.36[lower-alpha 1]	0
	Animal Justice		78	0.08	New	0
Formal votes			102,172	96.54	−1.46
Informal votes			3,661	3.46	+1.46
Total			105,833	100		25
Registered voters / turnout			141,255	74.94	+0.92
Two-party-preferred vote[lower-alpha 2][37]
	Labor			53.3	3.9
	Country Liberal			46.7	3.9

Close

The CLP regained a number of seats in traditional heartlands that it had lost to Labor in 2016, with the party winning back Braitling, Brennan and Katherine from the ALP. It also won the outback seats of Barkly and Namatjira by narrow margins. The ALP maintained its dominance of the Darwin/Palmerston area, holding all but two of the region's seats–accounting for almost all of its majority. The ALP managed to consolidate some of its gains from 2016. It retained Port Darwin and Drysdale, two seats it had only won once before 2016, while gaining Blain, a seat it had never won before. The ALP also won a majority of the two-party vote for only the third time ever in a Territory election.

Both incumbent independent MLAs running for reelection, Yingiya Mark Guyula and Kezia Purick, retained their seats, but long-serving independent Gerry Wood was succeeded by a CLP candidate in Nelson. The Territory Alliance won a single seat, with Robyn Lambley narrowly holding her seat of Araluen; party leader Terry Mills and Jeff Collins both lost their seats.

Seats changing hands

Members in italics did not re-contest their seats at this election. Margins are notional estimates by Antony Green.^[38]

• *Due to boundary changes, Namatjira was notionally CLP at the time of this election.