2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas
	Marshall: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Bollier: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50%; No data
U.S. senator before election; Pat Roberts; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Roger Marshall; Republican

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

US election

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.^[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed.^[2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.^[3]^[4]

Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

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[Key-56] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[57] "someone else" with 4%

[SE9-60] "Someone else" with 9%

[62] Hartman with 5%

[63] Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%

[119] "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%

[120] Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine

[stand4-122] Standard VI response

[123] Includes Undecided

[onlyBollMarsh-124] If Bollier and Marshall were the only candidates

[126] "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%

[127] Includes "Refused"

[129] "Someone else" with 2%

[SE11-131] "Someone else" with 11%

[134] Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%

[Marshall-58] Poll conducted for the Marshall campaign.

[Kobach-59] This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign

[NRSC-61] This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

[Bollier-121] Poll sponsored by Bollier's campaign.

[125] Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.

[keepkansas-128] Poll sponsored by Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period.

[EMILY-130] Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office

[314d-132] Poll sponsored by 314 Action

[SMART-133] The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers

[135] Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period

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Marshall, Roger [@RogerMarshallMD] (February 25, 2020). "I couldn't be prouder to have @DrJeffColyer on our team. He knows the importance of this race & why it's critical that we nominate a Republican who can win in November. https://t.co/OgjToUhlJ3 #kssen #ksleg" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 6, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022 – via Twitter.

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CATargetBot [@CATargetBot] (July 19, 2019). "NEW FEC F1 #KSSEN Crow4Senate https://t.co/z2HEl6ML0k https://t.co/MPs2KrzlR9" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 7, 2020. Retrieved March 19, 2022 – via Twitter.

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Lowry, Bryan (August 29, 2019). "Kansas Democrat would be first Hindu in U.S. Senate if she wins 2020 race". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved August 29, 2019.

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Clarkin, Mary (March 21, 2020). "2020 U.S. Senate race gains one, loses one". The Hutchinson News. Retrieved May 29, 2020.

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[auto21-79] [71]
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Bollier, Barbara [@BarbaraBollier] (October 28, 2020). ""Don't be fooled. Marshall is every bit as conservative as Kobach. Bollier is far better prepared to meet this moment." Thank you @KCStar for your endorsement. I'm ready to be a much-needed voice of reason in the Senate. Vote your values, Kansas! #KSSen https://t.co/tYXjqe9aVS" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 26, 2020. Retrieved March 19, 2022 – via Twitter.

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Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Bob Hamilton	Kris Kobach	Dave Lindstrom	Roger Marshall	Susan Wagle	Other	Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos	May 30 – June 1, 2020	419 (LV)	–	15%	35%	4%	26%	–	4%^{[lower-alpha 2]}	16%
	May 28, 2020	Wagle withdraws from the race
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^{[upper-alpha 1]}	May 10–12, 2020	600 (V)	± 4%	6%	26%	4%	33%	7%	–	24%
	March 30, 2020	Hamilton announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)^{[upper-alpha 2]}	February 12–16, 2020	300 (LV)	± 5.6%	2%	40%	5%	23%	8%	–	21%
co/efficient (R)	January 19–20, 2020	1,246 LV	± 3.2%	–	29%	–	29%	6%	9%^{[lower-alpha 3]}	28%
The Tarrance Group (R)^{[upper-alpha 3]}	October 21–23, 2019	607 (LV)	± 4.1%	–	43%	3%	24%	8%	5%^{[lower-alpha 4]}	16%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roger Marshall	167,800	40.28%
	Republican	Kris Kobach	108,726	26.10%
	Republican	Bob Hamilton	77,952	18.71%
	Republican	Dave Lindstrom	27,451	6.59%
	Republican	Steve Roberts	8,141	1.95%
	Republican	Brian Matlock	7,083	1.70%
	Republican	Lance Berland	6,404	1.54%
	Republican	John Miller	4,431	1.06%
	Republican	Derek Ellis	3,970	0.95%
	Republican	Gabriel Robles	3,744	0.90%
	Republican	John Berman	861	0.21%
Total votes			416,563	100.00%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Barbara Bollier	168,759	85.34%
	Democratic	Robert Tillman	28,997	14.66%
Total votes			197,756	100.00%

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[102]	Lean R	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections^[103]	Tilt R	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[104]	Lean R	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[105]	Lean R	October 30, 2020
Politico^[106]	Lean R	November 2, 2020
RCP^[107]	Lean R	October 23, 2020
DDHQ^[108]	Lean R	November 3, 2020
538^[109]	Likely R	November 2, 2020
Economist^[110]	Lean R	November 2, 2020

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Roger Marshall (R)	Barbara Bollier (D)	Jason Buckley (L)	Other	Undecided
Data For Progress	October 27 – November 1, 2020	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	51%	45%	4%	1%^{[lower-alpha 6]}	–
VCreek/AMG	October 25–27, 2020	1,149 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%	43%	2%	–	8%
GBAO Strategies (D) Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine^{[lower-alpha 7]}^{[upper-alpha 4]}	October 25–27, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	45%^{[lower-alpha 8]}	46%	4%	4%^{[lower-alpha 9]}	–
	October 25–27, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	47%^{[lower-alpha 10]}	47%	–	–	–
Public Policy Polling (D)^{[upper-alpha 5]}	October 19–20, 2020	897 (V)	± 3.3%	43%	43%	5%	–	9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	October 18–20, 2020	755 (LV)	± 4%	46%	42%	4%	2%^{[lower-alpha 11]}	6%^{[lower-alpha 12]}
co/efficient (R)^{[upper-alpha 6]}	October 18–20, 2020	2,453 (LV)	± 3.7%	51%	39%	2%	–	8%
VCreek/AMG (R)	September 29–30, 2020	3,104 (LV)	± 1.75%	42%	45%	2%	–	11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	September 26–29, 2020	677 (LV)	± 4.5%	50%	43%	–	2%^{[lower-alpha 13]}	5%
GBAO Strategies (D)^{[upper-alpha 4]}	September 24–27, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	43%	45%	7%	–	–
Data For Progress (D)	September 14–19, 2020	883 (LV)	± 3.3%	40%^{[lower-alpha 8]}	40%	5%	–	15%
Data For Progress (D)	September 14–19, 2020	883 (LV)	± 3.3%	42%^{[lower-alpha 10]}	42%	–	–	15%
co/efficient (R)^{[upper-alpha 6]}	September 15–16, 2020	794 (LV)	± 3.5%	43%	39%	2%	–	16%
SurveyUSA	August 8–9, 2020	1,202 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	44%	–	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)^{[upper-alpha 7]}	August 5–6, 2020	864 (V)	± 3.3%	43%	42%	–	–	15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	May 30 – June 1, 2020	699 (RV)	± 4.2%	42%	41%	–	9%^{[lower-alpha 3]}	8%
NMB Research (R)^{[upper-alpha 1]}	May 17–19, 2020	506 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	35%	–	–	18%
Public Policy Polling	March 10–11, 2020	1,567 (V)	± 2.5%	47%	37%	–	–	–

2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Primary debate

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Endorsements

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

See also

References

Further reading

External links

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Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Generic Republican (R)	Generic Democrat (D)	Undecided
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC^{[upper-alpha 10]}	September 15–16, 2020	794 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	39%	–
Public Policy Polling (D)^{[upper-alpha 8]}	April 13–14, 2020	1,271 (RV)	± 2.7%	50%	40%	11%
DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division Archived February 10, 2020, at the Wayback Machine^{[upper-alpha 9]}	January 30 – February 6, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%	39%	31%	30%
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)^{[upper-alpha 3]}	June 9–11, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	36%	–

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roger Marshall	727,962	53.22%	+0.07%
	Democratic	Barbara Bollier	571,530	41.79%	N/A
	Libertarian	Jason Buckley	68,263	4.99%	+0.67%
Total votes			1,367,755	100.0%
	Republican hold