2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
	Smith: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Lewis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50%; No votes
U.S. senator before election; Tina Smith; Democratic (DFL)	Elected U.S. Senator ; Tina Smith; Democratic (DFL)

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota

Election of Minnesota's senator to the U.S. Senate

The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11.^[1]

General election

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

More information By county, County ...

By county

County^[88]	Tina Smith DFL		Jason Lewis Republican		Kevin O'Connor LMN		Oliver Steinberg G—LC		Write-in		Margin		Total votes
County^[88]	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%			Total votes
Aitkin	3,474	35.29	5,761	58.52	462	4.69	143	1.45	5	0.05	-2,287	-23.23	9,845
Anoka	89,416	43.24	98,043	47.41	15,385	7.44	3,842	1.86	118	0.06	-8,627	-4.17	206,804
Becker	6,370	33.49	11,274	59.28	1,069	5.62	297	1.56	9	0.05	-4,904	-25.78	19,019
Beltrami	9,987	41.88	11,468	48.09	1,804	7.57	564	2.37	22	0.09	-1,481	-6.21	23,845
Benton	6,835	31.39	12,915	59.32	1,539	7.07	465	2.14	17	0.08	-6,080	-27.93	21,771
Big Stone	1,106	37.52	1,637	55.53	163	5.53	39	1.32	3	0.10	-531	-18.01	2,948
Blue Earth	16,527	46.78	15,040	42.57	2,847	8.06	871	2.47	41	0.12	1,487	4.21	35,326
Brown	4,808	33.23	8,736	60.38	690	4.77	224	1.55	10	0.07	-3,928	-27.15	14,468
Carlton	9,577	48.01	8,906	44.65	1,092	5.47	361	1.81	11	0.06	671	3.36	19,947
Carver	27,616	42.16	33,623	51.33	3,292	5.03	928	1.42	38	0.06	-6,007	-9.17	65,497
Cass	5,913	32.66	10,877	60.08	966	5.33	333	1.84	16	0.09	-4,964	-27.42	18,105
Chippewa	2,270	34.77	3,807	58.32	358	5.48	90	1.38	3	0.05	-1,537	-23.54	6,528
Chisago	11,014	32.62	19,700	58.34	2,340	6.93	692	2.05	20	0.06	-8,686	-25.72	33,766
Clay	15,136	47.99	13,308	42.20	2,348	7.45	716	2.27	29	0.09	1,828	5.80	31,537
Clearwater	1,224	26.50	3,078	66.65	242	5.24	69	1.49	5	0.11	-1,854	-40.15	4,618
Cook	2,344	63.08	1,162	31.27	133	3.58	73	1.96	4	0.11	1,182	31.81	3,716
Cottonwood	1,794	29.94	3,796	63.35	321	5.36	80	1.33	1	0.02	-2,002	-33.41	5,992
Crow Wing	12,964	32.76	23,792	60.11	2,032	5.13	774	1.96	16	0.04	-10,828	-27.36	39,578
Dakota	131,394	50.89	107,117	41.49	15,318	5.93	4,162	1.61	196	0.08	24,277	9.40	258,187
Dodge	4,013	33.45	6,924	57.71	806	6.72	248	2.07	6	0.05	-2,911	-24.26	11,997
Douglas	7,617	32.03	14,775	62.13	1,055	4.44	321	1.35	14	0.06	-7,158	-30.10	23,782
Faribault	2,531	32.66	4,624	59.66	444	5.73	148	1.91	3	0.04	-2,093	-27.01	7,750
Fillmore	4,696	39.22	6,440	53.79	625	5.22	205	1.71	6	0.05	-1,744	-14.57	11,972
Freeborn	6,797	41.09	8,364	50.57	1,057	6.39	313	1.89	10	0.06	-1,567	-9.47	16,541
Goodhue	11,186	39.45	15,171	53.50	1,486	5.24	489	1.72	25	0.09	-3,985	-14.05	28,357
Grant	1,349	37.51	2,044	56.84	163	4.53	39	1.08	1	0.03	-695	-19.33	3,596
Hennepin	478,129	64.46	209,754	28.28	41,282	5.56	12,130	1.63	496	0.07	268,375	36.18	741,791
Houston	4,478	39.96	5,778	51.56	700	6.25	243	2.17	8	0.07	-1,300	-11.60	11,207
Hubbard	4,281	33.43	7,713	60.23	572	4.47	232	1.81	7	0.06	-3,432	-26.80	12,805
Isanti	6,751	28.34	14,774	62.01	1,671	7.01	608	2.55	20	0.08	-8,023	-33.68	23,824
Itasca	10,463	39.88	13,949	53.17	1,353	5.16	458	1.74	14	0.05	-3,486	-13.29	26,237
Jackson	1,744	30.55	3,524	61.74	323	5.66	115	2.01	2	0.04	-1,780	-31.18	5,708
Kanabec	2,612	28.91	5,657	62.62	577	6.39	185	2.05	3	0.03	-3,045	-33.71	9,034
Kandiyohi	8,117	35.32	13,388	58.25	1,151	5.01	312	1.36	16	0.07	-5,271	-22.93	22,984
Kittson	1,116	42.97	1,350	51.98	98	3.77	32	1.23	1	0.04	-234	-9.01	2,597
Koochiching	2,637	39.08	3,629	53.78	365	5.41	114	1.69	3	0.04	-992	-14.70	6,748
Lac Qui Parle	1,477	37.08	2,314	58.10	139	3.49	52	1.31	1	0.02	-837	-21.01	3,983
Lake	3,485	48.95	3,155	44.31	332	4.66	144	2.02	4	0.06	330	4.64	7,120
Lake of the Woods	650	27.61	1,545	65.63	121	5.14	37	1.57	1	0.04	-895	-38.02	2,354
Le Sueur	5,401	32.74	9,825	59.56	969	5.87	297	1.80	5	0.03	-4,424	-26.82	16,497
Lincoln	911	29.55	1,936	62.80	183	5.94	49	1.59	4	0.13	-1,025	-33.25	3,083
Lyon	4,464	35.03	7,401	58.08	668	5.24	195	1.53	14	0.11	-2,937	-23.05	12,742
Mahnomen	1,039	45.85	1,007	44.44	169	7.46	48	2.12	3	0.13	32	1.41	2,266
Marshall	1,490	29.73	3,255	64.96	198	3.95	62	1.24	6	0.12	-1,765	-35.22	5,011
Martin	3,348	30.79	6,707	61.68	613	5.64	200	1.84	6	0.05	-3,359	-30.89	10,874
McLeod	6,114	29.64	12,875	62.43	1,223	5.93	393	1.91	19	0.09	-6,761	-32.78	20,624
Meeker	3,889	29.12	8,575	64.20	664	4.97	221	1.65	7	0.05	-4,686	-35.08	13,356
Mille Lacs	4,123	28.74	8,851	61.69	1,025	7.14	334	2.33	15	0.10	-4,728	-32.95	14,348
Morrison	4,452	23.25	13,368	69.82	1,012	5.29	307	1.60	7	0.04	-8,916	-46.57	19,146
Mower	8,472	44.92	8,615	45.68	1,380	7.32	385	2.04	7	0.04	-143	-0.76	18,859
Murray	1,448	30.15	3,081	64.15	221	4.60	52	1.08	1	0.02	-1,633	-34.00	4,803
Nicollet	8,992	47.64	8,397	44.48	1,062	5.63	412	2.18	13	0.07	595	3.15	18,876
Nobles	2,776	32.87	4,959	58.72	543	6.43	162	1.92	5	0.06	-2,183	-25.85	8,445
Norman	1,497	44.59	1,617	48.17	193	5.75	48	1.43	2	0.06	-120	-3.57	3,357
Olmsted	45,543	51.22	36,972	41.58	4,730	5.32	1,604	1.80	60	0.07	8,571	9.64	88,909
Otter Tail	11,728	32.75	21,738	60.70	1,817	5.07	510	1.42	19	0.05	-10,010	-27.95	35,812
Pennington	2,574	35.76	3,919	54.45	566	7.86	133	1.85	5	0.07	-1,345	-18.69	7,197
Pine	5,055	32.16	9,341	59.44	1,005	6.39	310	1.97	5	0.03	-4,286	-27.27	15,716
Pipestone	1,200	24.68	3,324	68.37	264	5.43	71	1.46	3	0.06	-2,124	-43.69	4,862
Polk	5,577	36.45	8,559	55.94	917	5.99	236	1.54	10	0.06	-2,982	-19.49	15,299
Pope	2,390	34.66	4,135	59.96	290	4.20	77	1.12	4	0.06	-1,745	-25.30	6,896
Ramsey	188,784	65.55	73,638	25.57	19,087	6.63	6,158	2.14	324	0.11	115,146	39.98	287,991
Red Lake	769	35.92	1,222	57.08	114	5.32	33	1.54	3	1.40	-453	-21.16	2,141
Redwood	2,297	28.06	5,415	66.15	355	4.34	114	1.39	5	0.06	-3,118	-38.09	8,186
Renville	2,500	31.47	4,927	62.01	390	4.91	122	1.54	6	0.07	-2,427	-30.55	7,945
Rice	16,201	46.20	15,999	45.63	2,138	6.10	701	2.00	24	0.07	202	0.58	35,063
Rock	1,461	28.42	3,286	63.93	294	5.72	98	1.91	1	0.02	-1,825	-35.51	5,140
Roseau	2,321	27.93	5,494	66.11	396	4.76	95	1.14	4	0.05	-3,173	-38.18	8,310
Scott	35,758	41.34	44,215	51.11	5,218	6.03	1,269	1.47	46	0.05	-8,457	-9.78	86,506
Sherburne	16,584	30.46	33,145	60.88	3,702	6.80	974	1.79	42	0.08	-16,561	-30.42	54,447
Sibley	2,368	28.52	5,391	64.94	426	5.13	112	1.35	5	0.06	-3,023	-36.41	8,302
St. Louis	63,036	53.81	45,016	38.43	6,545	5.59	2,451	2.09	87	0.07	18,020	15.38	117,135
Stearns	29,931	35.89	47,080	56.45	4,843	5.81	1,484	1.78	64	0.08	-17,149	-20.56	83,402
Steele	7,412	36.00	11,358	55.16	1,381	6.71	435	2.11	5	0.02	-3,946	-19.16	20,591
Stevens	1,906	38.02	2,848	56.81	192	3.83	67	1.34	0	0.00	-942	-18.79	5,013
Swift	1,838	35.70	3,020	58.66	226	4.39	63	1.22	1	0.02	-1,182	-22.96	5,148
Todd	3,354	25.68	8,842	67.70	650	4.98	205	1.57	10	0.08	-5,488	-42.02	13,061
Traverse	656	35.87	1,045	57.13	98	5.36	27	1.48	3	0.16	-389	-21.27	1,829
Wabasha	4,513	35.02	7,535	58.47	643	4.99	190	1.47	5	0.04	-3,022	-23.45	12,886
Wadena	1,977	26.09	5,041	66.52	419	5.53	137	1.81	4	0.05	-3,064	-40.43	7,578
Waseca	3,365	32.95	6,043	59.17	629	6.16	172	1.68	4	0.04	-2,678	-26.22	10,213
Washington	80,479	49.21	71,906	43.97	8,382	5.12	2,679	1.64	106	0.06	8,573	5.24	163,552
Watonwan	1,960	38.48	2,752	54.02	298	5.85	81	1.59	3	0.06	-792	-15.55	5,094
Wilkin	1,095	32.61	1,988	59.20	203	6.05	71	2.11	1	0.03	-893	-26.59	3,358
Winona	12,002	45.48	11,961	45.32	1,813	6.87	594	2.25	20	0.08	41	0.16	26,390
Wright	25,896	34.96	48,173	65.04	5,009	6.76	1,523	2.06	60	0.08	-22,277	-30.08	74,069
Yellow Medicine	1,678	30.78	3,436	63.02	270	4.95	65	1.19	3	0.06	-1,758	-32.24	5,452
Totals	1,566,522	48.74	1,398,145	43.50	190,154	5.92	57,174	1.78	2,261	0.07	168,377	5.24	3,214,256

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Beltrami (largest municipality: Bemidji)
Kittson (largest municipality: Hallock)
Koochiching (largest municipality: International Falls)
Mower (largest municipality: Austin)
Norman (largest municipality: Ada)

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[SE2-87] "Someone else" with 2%

[88] "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%

[89] "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%

[SOC3-90] "Some other candidate" with 3%

[91] O'Connor (LMN) and Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%

[92] Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

[93] O'Connor (LMN) with 3%; Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; would not vote with 0%

[94] "Some other candidate" with 4%

[95] O'Connor (LMN) and "Refused" with 2%; Steinberg (GLC) and "Other" with 1%

[96] "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%

[97] "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%

[98] Includes "Refused"

[SE3-99] "Someone else" with 3%

[Lewis-100] Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign

[101] Giffords endorsed Tina Smith prior to the sampling period

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Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic (DFL)	Tina Smith (incumbent)	497,498	87.14%
	Democratic (DFL)	Paula Overby	30,497	5.34%
	Democratic (DFL)	Ahmad Hassan	20,037	3.51%
	Democratic (DFL)	Steve Carlson	16,429	2.88%
	Democratic (DFL)	Christopher Seymore	6,480	1.13%
Total votes			570,941	100.00%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jason Lewis	191,290	78.11%
	Republican	Cynthia Gail	17,675	7.22%
	Republican	John Berman	16,213	6.62%
	Republican	Bob Carney Jr.	10,503	4.29%
	Republican	James Reibestein	9,210	3.76%
Total votes			244,891	100.00%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Grassroots—LC	Oliver Steinberg	3,275	100.00%
Total votes			3,275	100.00%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Legal Marijuana Now	Kevin O'Connor	6,996	100.00%
Total votes			6,996	100.00%

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[52]	Safe D	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections^[53]	Safe D	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[54]	Likely D	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[55]	Likely D	October 30, 2020
Politico^[56]	Likely D	November 2, 2020
RCP^[57]	Tossup	October 23, 2020
DDHQ^[58]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
538^[59]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
Economist^[60]	Likely D	November 2, 2020

2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Other candidates

Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis

Nominee

Results

Legal Marijuana Now

Nominee

Primary results

Independent write-in candidate

Declared

General election

Debate

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Results

By congressional district

See also

Notes

References

External links

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Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tina Smith (D)	Jason Lewis (R)	Other	Undecided
Research Co.	October 31 – November 1, 2020	450 (LV)	4.6%	50%	39%	2%^{[lower-alpha 1]}	9%
Data for Progress	October 27 – November 1, 2020	1,259 (LV)	± 2.8%	54%	44%	2%^{[lower-alpha 2]}	–
Swayable	October 23 – November 1, 2020	430 (LV)	± 6.1%	55%	46%	–	–
Public Policy Polling	October 29–30, 2020	770 (V)	–	51%	42%	–	6%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart	October 25–30, 2020	1,138 (LV)	–	53%	44%	3%^{[lower-alpha 3]}	–
St. Cloud State University	October 10–29, 2020	372 (A)	± 6.7%	53%	36%	–	–
SurveyUSA Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	October 23–27, 2020	649 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	42%	3%^{[lower-alpha 4]}	10%
Gravis Marketing	October 24–26, 2020	657 (LV)	± 3.8%	53%	39%	–	8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	October 17–20, 2020	840 (LV)	± 3.6%	54%	43%	2%^{[lower-alpha 5]}	1%
SurveyUSA Archived October 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	October 16–20, 2020	625 (LV)	± 5%	43%	42%	3%^{[lower-alpha 4]}	12%
Change Research	October 12–15, 2020^{[lower-alpha 6]}	1,021 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	44%	4%^{[lower-alpha 7]}	5%
SurveyUSA Archived October 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	October 1–6, 2020	929 (LV)	± 3.9%	44%	37%	4%^{[lower-alpha 8]}	16%
Suffolk University	September 20–24, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	35%	6%^{[lower-alpha 9]}	14%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	September 21–23, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	41%	–	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	September 12–17, 2020	718 (LV)	± 3.7%	51%	36%	2%^{[lower-alpha 10]}	11%
CBS News/YouGov	September 9–11, 2020	1,087 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	40%	2%^{[lower-alpha 1]}	10%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	September 8–10, 2020	814 (LV)	± 3.9%	49%	40%	0%^{[lower-alpha 11]}	11%^{[lower-alpha 12]}
SurveyUSA	September 4–7, 2020	553 (LV)	± 5.2%	47%	36%	3%^{[lower-alpha 4]}	14%
Public Policy Polling	September 3–4, 2020	877 (V)	± 3.3%	49%	41%	3%^{[lower-alpha 13]}	7%
Harper Polling (R)^{[upper-alpha 1]}	August 30 – September 1, 2020	501 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	41%	–	10%
Emerson College	August 8–10, 2020	733 (LV)	± 3.6%	48%	45%	–	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)^{[upper-alpha 2]}	July 22–23, 2020	1,218 (V)	± 3.2%	48%	39%	–	13%
Harper Polling (R)^{[upper-alpha 1]}	May 26–28, 2020	510 (LV)	–	46%	35%	–	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
PPP	Sep 3–4, 2020	877 (V)	± 3.3%	51%	44%	–	4%
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis^{[upper-alpha 1]}	Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020	501 (LV)	± 4.38%	45%	43%	3%^{[lower-alpha 13]}	9%
Emerson College	Aug 8–10, 2020	733 (LV)	± 3.6%	48%	46%	–	7%
Harper Polling (R)^{[upper-alpha 1]}	May 26–28, 2020	510 (LV)	–	44%	40%	–	–

District	Smith	Lewis	Representative
1st	41.9%	48.8%	Jim Hagedorn
2nd	47.9%	44.5%	Angie Craig
3rd	53.1%	40.1%	Dean Phillips
4th	61.7%	30.1%	Betty McCollum
5th	73.4%	18.3%	Ilhan Omar
6th	36%	55.7%	Tom Emmer
7th	34%	58.9%	Collin Peterson
7th	34%	58.9%	Michelle Fischbach
8th	40%	52.3%	Pete Stauber