2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

U.S. Senate race Virginia 2020

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania.[1]

Background

Incumbent senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore.[2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote by a margin of 0.8% against former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.[7][8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.[9] The primary was on June 23.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Alissa Baldwin, teacher[11]
  • Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer[12]

Failed to qualify

  • Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor[13]
  • Omari Faulkner, Navy reservist and former Georgetown University basketball player[14][9]
  • Roger Franklin[15]
  • Victor Williams, attorney and activist[16]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Daniel Gade
National Party Officials
U.S. representatives
State senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Results

Results by county:
  Gade
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Virginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie 6 years earlier was widely considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to being held concurrently with the Presidential Election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, albeit narrowly.

Warner's victory was largely contributed from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Endorsements

Mark Warner (D)
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals
  • John Warner, former U.S. senator from Virginia (1979-2009) (Republican)[53]
Daniel Gade (R)
National party officials
U.S. representatives
State senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Warner and Generic Republican
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
More information By county and independent city, County / City ...

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  3. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  5. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  6. "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  7. "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
  8. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  9. Undecided with 7%
  10. Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
  11. Undecided with 5%
  12. Archived October 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  13. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  14. Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  15. "Don't know/refused" with 6%
  16. "Refused" with 0%
  17. On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.doc
  18. On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.doc

References

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Official campaign websites
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