2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Maryland

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

U.S. presidential election in Maryland

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Biden easily carried Maryland with 65.4% of the vote to Trump's 32.2% (a margin of 33.2%, much improved from Hillary Clinton's 26.4% in 2016). Prior to the election, all news organizations handicapping the election considered Maryland a state that Biden would carry comfortably. Maryland has long been a Democratic-leaning state, and no Republican presidential candidate has won it since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden carried Black-majority Prince George's County and Baltimore City with almost 90% of the vote, and the suburban counties of Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore with over 60% each. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes collectively, more than enough to carry the state.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's principal strength in Maryland came from winning 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other major demographic groups, including 52% of Whites (the first time since 1964 that a Democratic candidate won the white vote in Maryland), 69% of Latinos, 79% of Jews, 54% of Protestants, and 51% of Catholics.[4]

Biden flipped Frederick County in the Washington, D.C., exurbs and Talbot County on the Eastern Shore Democratic for the first time since 1964.[5] He also flipped Kent County on the Eastern Shore, home of Washington College, Democratic for the first time since 2008. In another college county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico (home of Salisbury University), Trump won but was held below 50% of the vote for the first time for a Republican nominee since 1996.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[6]

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary

More information Candidate, Votes ...
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary § MDresults.[edit]

Green primary

More information Candidate, Round 1 ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...
More information Hypothetical polling, Poll source ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Results by county

More information County, Joe Biden Democratic ...

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts. [27]

More information District, Biden ...

Analysis

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland for any candidate since Horatio Seymour's 67.2% in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run; even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860–when the Republican Party was not yet established in the slaveholding Old Line State–did the Republican nominee perform worse than Trump did in 2020. In this election, Maryland voted 28.75% to the left of the nation at-large.[28]

With the exception of Somerset County, every county in the state swung to Biden from Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016; many swung Democratic by double digits.[29] The Republican presidential vote share has now declined for four elections in a row in Maryland, the longest such current run for the party in any state. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than one million raw votes: the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. "Someone else" with 3%
  5. "Refused" with 3%
  6. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  7. Includes "Refused"
  8. "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References

  1. [1]
    "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).
  2. [2]
    Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. [3]
    "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. [4]
    "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. [5]
    "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  6. [6]
    "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.
  7. [7]
    "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  8. [8]
    "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  9. [9]
    "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  10. [10]
    "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  11. [11]
    "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  12. [12]
    "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. [13]
    "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. [14]
    "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. [15]
    "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. [16]
    "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. [17]
    2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  18. [18]
    David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  19. [19]
    "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  20. [20]
    "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. [21]
    "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  22. [22]
    "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  23. [23]
    Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  24. [24]
    "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  25. [25]
    "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  26. [26]
    "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  27. [27]
    "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012".
  28. [28]
    "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  29. [29]
    "Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved August 30, 2022.

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