2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Tennessee

2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee

2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Election in Tennessee

The 2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Tennessee voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Trump won Tennessee with 60.66% of the vote, almost tied with his 60.72% vote share in 2016. Despite this, Biden got 37.4% of the vote, three points better than Hillary Clinton. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. Tennessee has not supported a Democrat for president since 1996. Biden won the same counties as Clinton did: urban Shelby and Davidson counties—anchored by Memphis and Nashville, respectively—as well as majority-Black Haywood County. In addition, Trump performed somewhat better than polls anticipated, as they had Trump leading Biden by 55%–41%.[4] Biden also became the first Democrat to win the presidency without Hardeman County.[5]

Despite this, Biden was able to improve his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, gaining 64.5% of the vote in Davidson County, the best Democratic performance in the county since FDR won 72.1% of the vote in 1944. At the same time, Biden also made gains in the Nashville suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing considerably better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. For example, Biden lost Rutherford County, anchored by Murfreesboro, only by 15.4%, much lower than Clinton's 25.9-point loss in 2016. Additionally, he narrowed Trump's margins in Hamilton County—anchored by Chattanooga—only losing it by 9.7 points, the best Democratic performance there since Bill Clinton lost the county by 6.5% in 1996; and with 44.1% of the popular vote, the best Democratic percentage since Carter's 48% in 1976, consequently losing by 2.8 points. This is the first time a Democrat has even garnered 40% of the vote in Rutherford County since 2000, when favorite son Al Gore lost the county by 9.7 points while at the same time losing both his home state and the election.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Tennessee came from a 69% showing among Southern whites, who made up 84% of the electorate. Similarly, Trump carried white born-again/Evangelical Christians by 86%–12%. The state of Tennessee is entirely covered in the Bible Belt. The only strength Biden showed was with 88% of African-American voters. 65% of voters opposed removing Confederate statues from public places in Tennessee, and these voters backed Trump by 83%–15%.[6]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2020 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary was on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[7][8] Former vice president Joe Biden easily decided the primary, winning almost 42% of the vote and 36 delegates and benefitting from overwhelming African-American support, as well as rural support among predominantly white working-class voters. Senator Bernie Sanders took 25% of the vote gaining 22 delegates, while former mayor Michael Bloomberg reached the threshold with slightly more than 15% but was not allocated any statewide delegates due to his withdrawal the next day. Otherwise Biden would have had 33 delegates, Sanders 20 delegates and Bloomberg 10 delegates. Senator Elizabeth Warren received a single district delegate.

Final results by county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   30–40%
      40–50%
      50–60%
      60–70%
  Sanders
  •   30–40%
More information Candidate, Votes ...

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 Tennessee Republican presidential primary

The Republican primary was on March 3, 2020. Incumbent President Donald Trump won the state in a landslide getting 96.5% of the vote and all 58 delegates

Former Tennessee senator Bob Corker was considered a potential primary opponent for Trump.[11]

Final results by county
Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   >90%
More information Candidate, Votes ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidates win the state:[27]

More information Kanye West and Michelle Tidball Independent, Don Blankenship and William Mohr Constitution Party ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

By Grand Division

Results by Grand Division
Trump:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand Divisions—West, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2016, Trump had won it with 48.93% to Clinton's 47.82%. Democrats had previously won in West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.[29]

More information Grand Division, Trump ...

By congressional district

Trump won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[30]

More information District, Trump ...

By county

More information County, Donald Trump Republican ...

Analysis

Winning the state by 708,764 votes, Tennessee gave Trump his largest margin of victory by the number of votes nationally. This exceeded the 631,221-vote margin by which he won in Texas, marking the first time since 1988 (when Florida provided the largest margin of victory) where Texas did not provide the Republican presidential nominee with his widest margin of votes for a statewide victory. Additionally, this is the second consecutive election in which a nominee carried over 60% of Tennessee's vote, the first time since 1996 that Tennessee and neighboring Georgia did not vote for the same candidate, and the first time since 1980 that Tennessee was won by the Republicans while Georgia was won by the Democrats.

See also

Notes

  1. 33 delegates, if Bloomberg's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
  2. 20 delegates, if Bloomberg's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
  3. 10 delegates, if Bloomberg's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
  4. Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary, after early voting started.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  9. Jorgensen and Cohen were nominated by the Libertarian Party of Tennessee but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
  10. Blankenship and Mohr were nominated by the Constitution Party of Tennessee but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
  11. Hawkins and Walker were nominated by the Green Party of Tennessee but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
  12. Kennedy and Jarrett were nominated by the Socialist Workers Party but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
  13. La Riva and Freeman were nominated by the Party for Socialism and Liberation but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
  14. De La Fuente and Richardson were nominated by the Alliance Party but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.

References

  1. [1]
    "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2020". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. [2]
    Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. [3]
    "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. [4]
    Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (June 28, 2018). "Tennessee President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 15, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. [5]
    Leip, Dave. "Tennessee Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved February 21, 2023.
  6. [6]
    "Tennessee Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  7. [7]
    Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  8. [8]
    Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  9. [9]
    "March 3, 2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2020.
  10. [10]
    "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Tennessee Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  11. [11]
    Mattise, Jonathan (December 20, 2018). "Trump foil, retiring GOP Sen. Corker: 'no idea' what's next". Associated Press. Retrieved December 26, 2018.
  12. [12]
    "March 3, 2020 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2020.
  13. [13]
    "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. [14]
    "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. [15]
    "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. [16]
    "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  17. [17]
    "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  18. [18]
    2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  19. [19]
    David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  20. [20]
    "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  21. [21]
    "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  22. [22]
    "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  23. [23]
    "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  24. [24]
    Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  25. [25]
    "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  26. [26]
    "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  27. [27]
    State of Tennessee (December 2, 2020). "Tennessee Certificate of Ascertainment 2020" (PDF). National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved July 17, 2021.
  28. [28]
    State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 3, 2020, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2020. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  29. [29]
    "2020 Tennessee presidential election by Grand division". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
  30. [30]
    Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.

[1]

  1. [1]
    "Tennessee breaks voter turnout record for presidential contest, with more than 3 million people casting ballots". Tennessean. November 6, 2020.
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