2020–21_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

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See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

The 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020, and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect the Class III member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated appointed incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler. The first round of the election was held on November 3, 2020; however, no candidate received a majority of the vote, so the top two candidates—Warnock and Loeffler—advanced to a runoff on January 5, 2021, which Warnock won narrowly.

Not to be confused with 2020 Georgia State Senate election.
For the other Senate election in Georgia held in parallel, see 2020–21 United States Senate general election in Georgia.

Quick Facts Turnout, Candidate ...

The special election was prompted by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s appointment of Loeffler as the interim replacement for Republican Class III Senator Johnny Isakson, who resigned in December 2019. The winner of this election would serve a shortened term concluding on January 3, 2023. An election to serve a full six-year term was set for November 8, 2022.

In accordance with Georgia law, no primary election took place for the special election; all candidates, regardless of party, were placed on the same ballot (known as a nonpartisan blanket primary, or "jungle primary"), and the election was held on November 3, 2020. Warnock received the most votes with 32.9%, and Loeffler came in second with 25.9%. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates advanced to a runoff election on January 5, 2021.[1]

The runoff was held concurrently with the regular Georgia Class II Senate election, in which Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent Republican David Perdue, also in a runoff on January 5. Following the November 3, 2020 Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus—consisting of 46 registered Democrats and two allied independents—held 48. Because of this, the two Georgia runoffs determined the balance of the United States Senate under the incoming Biden administration. Winning both races gave the Democratic caucus 50 Senate seats, an effective majority with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide and globally.

Major media outlets, including Decision Desk HQ, the Associated Press, The New York Times, and NBC News, called the election for Warnock in the early hours of January 6, just minutes after he apparently declared victory. Though Loeffler vowed to challenge the results after she returned from the electoral vote certification in Washington,[2] she conceded on January 7.[3] Ossoff and Warnock became the first Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia since Zell Miller in the 2000 special election. Warnock is the first Black senator from Georgia, as well as the first Black Democrat from the South elected to the Senate. Though Warnock is the first Democratic senator from this seat since the latter election,[4] hours later Ossoff was declared the winner in the regular Senate election.[5][6] The two elections mark the first time since the 1994 United States Senate election in Tennessee and the concurrent special election that both Senate seats in a state have flipped from one party to the other in a single election cycle. This was also the first time the Democrats achieved this since West Virginia's 1958 Senate elections. The election results were certified on January 19, 2021, with the senators-elect taking office on January 20.[7][8][9]

Background

On August 28, 2019, Isakson announced that he would resign from the Senate effective December 31 due to his deteriorating health.[10] This triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term. On September 17, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp launched a website inviting Georgia citizens to submit their résumés in order to be considered for appointment.[11] President Donald Trump advocated the appointment of Representative Doug Collins.[12] Kemp appointed Loeffler to fill the seat until the 2020 special election; she took office on January 6, 2020.[13]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Despite the large number of candidates in the special election, by October 4, 2020, the Democratic Party had largely consolidated around Warnock's candidacy and had pressured other Democratic candidates, such as Matt Lieberman, to drop out to avoid vote-splitting.[14]

While she had not been treated as a major contender, being largely ignored by pollsters, Deborah Jackson received 6.6% of the vote in the initial round of the election, being the second-best performing Democrat, and outperformed fellow Democrats such Matt Lieberman and Ed Tarver, who pollsters had paid attention to. Al Jazeera attributed her performance, in part, to her being the first Democrat listed in the order of candidates that appeared on the ballot, and her being a familiar figure in the Democratic stronghold of DeKalb County.[15]

Advanced to runoff

Eliminated

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Lieberman
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Raphael Warnock
U.S. presidents
U.S. vice president
U.S. Cabinet Members
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals

Republican Party

Advanced to runoff

Eliminated

Withdrawn

Declined

Kelly Loeffler
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Individuals
Doug Collins
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Libertarian Party

Declared

Green Party

Declared

  • John "Green" Fortuin[80]

Independents

Declared

Special election

Polling

Jungle primary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Predictions

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Results

Since no candidate won a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two finishers—Loeffler and Warnock—advanced to a January 5, 2021 runoff election.[151][152]

More information Party, Candidate ...

Results by congressional district

Loeffer won 7 out of 14 congressional districts to Warnock's 6 and Collins's 1.[154]

More information District, Warnock ...

Runoff

The runoff election for Isakson's former seat was on January 5, 2021. The regularly-scheduled runoff election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue was also decided in a January 5 runoff. Before the Georgia runoffs in the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48.[155] Warnock declared victory on January 6, 2021.[156] If Democrats won the other Georgia runoff held on January 5, their caucus would gain control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie would be broken by Democratic vice president-elect Kamala Harris. If they lost the second race, Republicans would retain control.[157] The extremely high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide.[158][159][160] They were the third and fourth Senate runoff elections held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, after runoffs in 1992[citation needed] and 2008.[161] It was also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in 1914 and 1932.[citation needed] The Associated Press and other major news outlets called the race for Warnock in the early morning hours of January 6.[162] His win was attributed to heavy black voter turnout.[163]

The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7.[164] Absentee ballots for the runoff were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[165][166]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Aggregate polls
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Hypothetical polling
Loeffler vs. Collins
Loeffler vs. Lieberman
Loeffler vs. Tarver
Collins vs. Lieberman
Collins vs. Tarver
Collins vs. Warnock
Loeffler vs. Broun
Collins vs. Abrams
Loeffler vs. generic opponent
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
More information By county, County ...

Results by congressional district

Despite losing, Loeffler won 8 of 14 congressional districts.[173]

More information District, Warnock ...

Republicans filed two federal and one state lawsuit in December to restrict the January 5 vote. On December 17, Judge Eleanor L. Ross found that plaintiffs lacked standing based on possible future harm to toss out a consent decree regarding signatures on absentee ballot applications. Judge James Randal Hall threw out another case which tried to block the use of drop boxes for absentee ballots. A third lawsuit, to restrict the use of drop boxes, was heard in state court on December 24.[174][citation needed]

On December 18, a federal judge threw out a Republican lawsuit alleging that out-of-state residents were voting in the runoff election, as Republican attorney Bill Price has recommended.[175] Another lawsuit was filed against the use of voting machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems, alleging that election officials are handling mail-in absentee ballots improperly and illegally.[176]

Judge Leslie Abrams Gardner, sister of Democratic politician Stacey Abrams, of the United States District Court for the Middle District of Georgia rejected the attempted purge of 4,000 voters in Muscogee County and Ben Hill County, Georgia, on December 29. The ruling means the voters were able to participate in the January 5 runoff election.[177] The ruling was amended to allow provisional voting to prevent election-day challenges.[178]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  2. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. Poll sponsored by Warnock's campaign.
  4. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. Poll sponsored by Matt Lieberman's campaign
  6. This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  7. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  8. Internal poll for Collins
  9. Poll is sponsored by OANN, a far-right television news channel.
  10. This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling.
  11. Steve Phillips, who sponsored this poll, is a senior fellow at the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress
  12. Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus
  13. Internal poll for Loeffler
  14. Americas PAC exclusively supports Republican candidates
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Slowinski (L) with 1%
  3. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. "Someone else" with 2%
  6. Slowinski (L) with 2%
  7. "Other candidate" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%; "No one" with 1%
  8. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  9. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other Candidate" with 2%
  11. Would not vote with 1%
  12. Includes "Refused"
  13. Bartell (I), Did not vote, Johnson (R), Johnson-Shealey (D) and "Someone else" with 2%; Dien Winfield (D) with 1%
  14. "Someone else" with 0%
  15. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  16. Includes Undecided
  17. Fortuin (G), Johnson-Shealey (D) and Taylor (R) with 1%; Bartell (I), Slade (D) and Stovall (I) with 0%; Buckley (I), Grayson (R), Greene (I), Jackson (R), James (D), Slowinski (L) and Winfield (D) with no voters
  18. Slowinski (L) with 2%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  19. "Someone else" with 1%
  20. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  21. "Other Democratic Candidate" with 2%; "Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; "Other Republican Candidate" with 0%
  22. "Other candidate" and Slowinski (L) with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  23. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other" with 2%
  24. Slowinski (L) and "Other" with 2%
  25. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  26. "Other Democratic Candidate" with 3%; "Another Third Party/Write-in" and "Other Republican Candidate" with 1%
  27. Would not vote with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  28. Johnson-Shealey (D) with 5%; Bartell (I), Dien Winfield (D) and Johnson (R) with 2%; "One of the other candidates" and would not vote with 1%
  29. Slowinski (L) with 5%; Johnson (R) and would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate/still undecided" with 3%; Winfield (D) with 2%
  30. "Third party candidate" with 1%
  31. "Other candidate" with 5%; Slowinski (L) with 3%
  32. "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  33. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  34. "Someone else" with 4%
  35. All other candidates with 5% or less
  36. "Another candidate who qualified to run but isn't listed" with 2%
  37. Bartell (I) with 2%; Slowinski (L) and "someone else" with 1%
  38. Johnson (R) with 4%; Winfield (D) with 3%; Bartell (I) with 2%; "refused" with 0%
  39. Democratic candidates have 31% of the vote combined
  40. Bartell with 5%; Johnson (R) with 2%
  41. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  42. Archived November 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  43. "Someone else" with 9%
  44. "Someone else" with 8%
  45. "Someone else" with 18%
  46. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  47. "Someone else" with 17%
  48. "Someone else" with 20%
  49. "Someone else" with 13%
  50. "Someone else" with 7%
  51. "Someone else" with 5%
  52. "Someone else" with 6%
  53. Listed as "other/undecided"
  54. "It is more important for Republicans to have control of the Senate" as opposed to "It is more important for Democrats to have control of the Senate" with 46%
  55. "It does not matter which party has control of the Senate" with 7%; Undecided with 4%
Miscellaneous
  1. [N 1]
    In January 2020, Loeffler was appointed by Governor Brian Kemp to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Johnny Isakson, due to ill health.

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