2021 Mexican legislative election


Legislative elections were held in Mexico on 6 June 2021. Voters elected 500 deputies (300 in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post, 200 by proportional representation) to sit in the Chamber of Deputies for the 65th Congress.

2021 Mexican legislative election

 2018 6 June 2021 2024 

All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
Turnout52.7%[1]
Party Leader % Seats ±
MORENA Mario Martín Delgado 34.10 197 +8
PAN Marko Cortés Mendoza 18.25 111 +28
PRI Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas 17.73 69 +24
PVEM Karen Castrejón Trujillo 5.43 44 +28
PT Alberto Anaya Gutiérrez 3.24 38 -23
MC Clemente Castañeda 7.02 25 -2
PRD Ángel Ávila Romero 3.64 17 -4
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Preliminary constituency results by party and alliance.[2]

On 5 December 2020, the National Action Party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party and the Party of the Democratic Revolution announced an electoral alliance, Va por México ("Go For Mexico").[3][4] The National Regeneration Movement, the Labour Party and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico formed the Juntos Hacemos Historia (″Together we make history″) coalition.[5] Both alliances were approved by the National Electoral Institute (INE).[6]

The INE issued a statement on 3 February 2021 saying that it would not be prudent to postpone the election because of the COVID-19 pandemic and doing so could even trigger a constitutional crisis by delaying the opening of the 65th Congress. INE board president Lorenzo Córdova Vianello noted the successful elections in Hidalgo and Coahuila in October 2020.[7]

On 13 April 2021, the INE canceled the registrations of Manuel Guillermo Chapman ( MRN), Ana Elizabeth Ayala Leyva, (Juntos Haremos Historia), and Raúl Tadeo Nava ( PT) for failure to certify their lack of involvement in gender violence.[8] On June 3 INE warned about possible sanctions on Catholic bishops, in particular Juan Sandoval Íñiguez, for their interference in free elections.[9]

The elections are Mexico's largest, and have been tainted by many political assassinations and the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.[10] Final results are expected by the week of 14 June.[11]

Parties


A woman inserting her vote into a ballot box, Mexico City, 6 June 2021

Two alliances took part: Juntos Hacemos Historia and Va por México.

Alliance Parties
Juntos Hacemos Historia National Regeneration Movement (MORENA)

Labor Party (PT)

Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM)

Va por México National Action Party (PAN)

Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)

Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)

Two alliances were formed for the 2021 legislative election. Both are partial alliances, running joint candidates in most districts but running individual candidates in others.[12]

On 22 December 2020, PRI, PAN, and PRD announced the electoral alliance Va por México.[13] The alliance initially planned to run together in 180 of the 300 electoral districts, but on 23 December, the last day of registration, announced that they would only run together in 171 districts.[14] On February 15, 2021 the Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) approved the expansion of the coalition to a total of 219 districts. PRI represents the alliance in 77 districts, PAN in 72, and PRD in 70.[15]

In December 2020 MORENA, PT, and PVEM announced an electoral alliance, running together in 150 of the 300 electoral districts.[16] On March 18, 2021 the coalition was expanded to cover 183 districts. The alliance is represented by MORENA in 88 districts, PT in 50, and PVEM in 45.[17]

Mexican law requires political parties to obtain at least 3% of the vote to be registered. Registration allows the party to postulate candidates and receive subsidies for campaign expenses (MXN $161.9 million or USD48.1 million each in 2021).[18] Based on 2021 PREP results, Redes Sociales Progresistas ( RSP), Partido Encuentro Solidario ( PES), and Fuerza por México ( FXM) will lose their registration. RSP, affiliated with teachers′ union leader Elba Esther Gordillo, had 839,000 (1.76%) votes; PES, affiliated with evangelist Hugo Eric Flores, had 296,568 (2.73%) votes; and FM, affiliated with Senator Ricardo Monreal, had 178,000 (2.48%) votes. The parties have the opportunity to reorganize for the next election.[19]

Distribution of electoral districts by coalition


Va por México[20] Juntos Hacemos Historia[21]
  Candidate from PRI (77)
  Candidate from PAN (72)
  Candidate from PRD (70)
  No coalition candidate
  Candidate from MORENA (88)
  Candidate from PVEM (50)
  Candidate from PT (45)
  No coalition candidate

Polling


Poll Source Date Published Date of Poll Sample Size Margin of Error
Other Undecided/No Answer
Massive Caller[22] August 2020 No Data 600 No Data 40% 11.8% 24.2% 2.16% 3.23% 18.4% No Data
GEA-ISA[23] September 17, 2020 September 5–7, 2020 No Data No Data 22% 17% 14% - - 7% 40%
Massive Caller[24] October 19, 2020 No Data 600 ±4.3 % 41.8% 12.3% 31.7% 2.3% 3.4% 8.5% No Data
El Universal[25] November 30, 2020 November 12–17, 2020 1000 ±3.54 % 32% 16% 17% 4% 3% No Data No Data
Mitofsky[26] December 17, 2020 No Data No Data No Data 28.4% 10.8% 14.9% 2.6% 2.6% 9.8% 30.9%
Mitofsky[27] December 27, 2020 No Data No Data No Data 27.4% 13.9% 12.4% 3.3% 1.4% 5.8% 35.8%
El Financiero[28] February 4, 2021 January 15–16 and 29–30, 2021 1000 ±3.1% 38% 10% 11% 3% - No Data 33%
Massive Caller[29] February 22, 2021 February 19, 2021 600 ±4.1% 51.3% 10.7% 31.3% 2.0% 2.2% No Data No Data
El Financiero[30] March 4, 2021 February 12–13 and 25–26, 2021 1000 ±3.1% 44% 10% 10% 3% - No Data 29%
El Financiero[31] April 8, 2021 March 2–13 and 26–27, 2021 1000 ±3.1% 40% 10% 11% 3% - No Data 27%
Parametría[32] April 10, 2021 March 31 – April 10, 2021 800 ±3.5% 32% 11% 12% 3% 4.5% 12.5% 25%
Massive Caller[33] April 16, 2021 April 1–15, 2021 600 ±4.3% 42.1% 17.8% 24.1% 3.4% 4.8% 7.8% No Data
Reforma[34] April 16, 2021 April 8–13, 2021 1200 ±4.2% 45% 18% 17% 4% 3% 13% No Data
El Financiero[35] May 5, 2021 April 29 – May 2, 2021 2000 ±3.1% 40% 20% 19% 3% 5% 13% No Data
El País[36] May 17, 2021 May 10–14, 2021 2000 ±3.46% 44% 19% 18% 3% 5% 8%
GEA-ISA[37] May 2021 May 14–17, 2021 1500 ±2.5% 29.7% 13.0% 15.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.8% 21.5%
Varela y Asociados[38] May 25, 2021 April 29 – May 5, 2021 1500 No Data 46% 15% 17% 5% 5% 12%
El Universal[39] May 27, 2021 May 19–25, 2021 1530 ±2.86% 41% 15.3% 15.9% 3% 7.9% 16.9%
Parametria[40] June 1, 2021 May 22–28, 2021 1000 ±3.1% 40% 16% 15% 3% 7% 19%
El Financiero[41] June 2, 2021 May 14–15, 28–29, 27–30, 2021 2000 ±2.86% 39% 20% 21% 3% 5% 12%
Reforma[42] June 2, 2021 May 22–30, 2021 2000 ±2.8% 43% 20% 18% 2% 7% 10%

Controversies


Possibility of post-election protests

Prior Mexican elections have been fraught with accusations of election fraud, this had led to massive protests after the majority of Mexican elections in the past two decades. The 2021 legislative election did not cause protests. In a speech on June 14th , Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said "We must celebrate it, because we achieved our purpose: to establish in Mexico an authentic, a true democracy."[43]

Political assassinations

The runup to the 2021 legislative election in Mexico was filled with political assassinations. More than 91 politicians were killed, 14 of them being candidates. This political violence led to the 2021 elections being labeled as the second most deadly election since the year 2000.[44]

Absentee voting


Mexican citizens from eleven states who live overseas can vote electronically or by mail. Most of the elections are for governor, but overseas citizens registered in Mexico City, Jalisco, and Guerrero will be able to vote in state legislative elections.[45]

INE approved a pilot program allowing prison inmates who are held in protective custody in Hermosillo (District 4, Sonora); Villa Comaltitlán, Chiapas; Coatlán del Río (District 4 Jojutla, Morelos); and Buena Vista Tomatlán (District 12 Apatzingán, Michoacán) to vote absentee from May 17-19, 2021. The present order covers only male inmates, but it may be extended to females.[46]

Results


Chamber of Deputies

The results of the 2021 Mexican legislative election were a stalemate. The Morena coalition (Juntos Hacemos Historia) retained their majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but lost a significant number of seats to the opposition coalition (Va por México). The opposition was able to gain enough seats to block Morena from the two-thirds majority required to make constitutional amendments. The Morena coalition won with over 26% of the popular vote. Morena and its allies performed very well in gubernatorial races winning about half of Mexico’s 32 governorships.[47]

Because Morena does not have a super-majority or a majority with Morena alone, there are questions about how that will impact legislative goals. López Obrador might negotiate to bring his policies to fruition, or he could attempt to flex his executive muscle and brute force changes by using his powers as president.[48] Only time will tell on the policy agenda, but what is certain, the Chamber of Deputies and the vying coalition parties will play a pivotal role in what gets passed.

The 2021 Mexican legislative election also proved that the opposition performs stronger when they are allied together. With their alliance, the opposition stands a chance at denying Morena a legislative majority or even the presidency in the 2024 elections.[49]

The election had a voter turnout of 52.6% with 48.9 million votes cast, the largest midterm election in Mexican history.[50]

The results of the INE's official quick count were announced around midnight Mexico City time. It reported a voter percentage of around 35% for Morena, with the following approximate results for the other parties: PAN, 19%; PRI, 18%; PRD, 3.5%; Green Ecologist Party, 5%; and the Labor Party, 3%.[51]

Party District Proportional Total
seats
+/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
National Regeneration Movement6,571,127 13.45 64 16,759,917 34.10133197+8
Ecologist Green Party992,320 2.03 1 2,670,997 5.43 4344+28
Labor Party538,8321.10 01,594,828 3.24 3838-23
Total (MORENA–PT–PVEM)12,802,391 26.19 65 21,025,74242.77214279
National Action Party3,828,228 7.83 33 8,969,288 18.25 78111+28
Institutional Revolutionary Party2,715,123 5.56 11 8,715,899 17.73 5869+24
Party of the Democratic Revolution248,505 0.51 01,792,700 3.64 1717-4
Total (PAN–PRI–PRD)12,575,879 25.73 44 19,477,88739.62153197
Citizens' Movement3,430,507 7.02 7 3,449,982 7.02 1825-2
Solidary Encounter Party 1,345,858 2.75 01,352,544 2.75 00-8
Progressive Social Networks865,215 1.77 0868,515 1.77 000
Force for Mexico 1,211,824 2.48 0 1,217,084 2.48 000
Independents44,311 0.09044,311 0.09 000
Invalid/blank votes1,662,323 3.40
Total48,874,040 1003001002005000
Registered voters/turnout
Source: INE
Popular Vote
MORENA
34.10%
PAN
18.25%
PRI
17.73%
MC
7.02%
PVEM
5.43%
PRD
3.64%
PT
3.24%
PES
2.75%
RSP
1.77%
Independents
0.09%
Popular Vote (alliances)
JHH
42.77%
VPM
39.62%
Independents
0.09%
Seats
MORENA
39.4%
PAN
22.2%
PRI
13.8%
PVEM
8.8%
PT
7.6%
MC
5.0%
PRD
3.4%
Seats (alliances)
JHH
55.8%
VPM
39.4%

See also


References


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