2022 Serbian general election


General elections are expected to be held in Serbia in March or April 2022[1] to elect both the president and National Assembly. National Assembly elections had not been due until 2024, having last been held in June 2020, but are planned to be held alongside the presidential elections.[2]

2022 Serbian general election

Before 2 April 2022
Presidential election
 2017

Incumbent President

Aleksandar Vučić
SNS


Parliamentary election

 2020

All 250 seats in the National Assembly
126 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
SNS coalition Aleksandar Vučić 198
SPSJSZSKP Ivica Dačić 32
VMSZ István Pásztor 9
SPPDPM Muamer Zukorlić 4
PDD Shaip Kamberi 3
SDA S Sulejman Ugljanin 3
Independent Vladan Glišić 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Ana Brnabić
SNS

Background


Since Aleksandar Vučić came to power in 2012, Serbia has suffered from democratic backsliding into authoritarianism, followed by a decline in media freedom and civil liberties.[3][4] In 2017, then prime minister Aleksandar Vučić was elected as the new president of Serbia in a landslide, winning 55% of the popular vote.[5] Mass protests began after the election due to a dominant control of Serbia's media by Vučić and the ruling populist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).[6][7] Subsequently, Vučić appointed Ana Brnabić as the new head of government,[8] initially serving as an independent but later she joined SNS in 2019.[9]

The assassination of a prominent Kosovo Serb politician Oliver Ivanović and the assault on Borko Stefanović,[10][11] including many other government affairs triggered the beginning of the long-lasting peaceful anti-government protests that began in late November 2018, dubbed as "One of Five Million".[12][13] These protests made a significant attribution to the stronger unification of opposition forces, of which the Alliance for Serbia (SzS) was the biggest.[14] Protesters and opposition accused the government of corruption and autocracy and they demanded Vučić and other high officials to resign from their offices.[15][16][17] These protests were the biggest since the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević,[18] and were one of the longest lasting in Europe.[19] Parallel to this, Vučić launched the "Future of Serbia" campaign in 2019.[20] Some opposition parties and coalitions declared to boycott the next parliamentary election, citing that the condition weren't free and fair.[21][22] Due to these decisions, SzS was challenged by inter-party and coalition problems that remained until the coalition's dissolution in August 2020.[23] The protests were suspended in early 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic in the country.[24]

The SNS-led ballot list, named For Our Children, managed to win a majority of votes and seats,[25] and the government was successfully formed in late October 2020.[26] Shortly after the election has ended, new protests erupted in the country, mainly in the capital city of Belgrade.[27] These anti-government protests were marked with police brutality and violence from the government's side,[28][29][30] while the protesters were divided between the peaceful and violent ones.[27][31][32] This time, these protests mainly lasted only through July, while some sporadic protests are continued to be organized until this day.[33][34] In August 2020, the United Opposition of Serbia (UOPS) was formed, as a direct successor of the Alliance for Serbia (SzS).[23] This coalition remained unstable and it was challenged by many inter-party problems.[23] Due to ideological differences, the coalition's dissolution began in December 2020 and by January 2021 it was officially dissolved.[35][36] The former alliance was split into two blocs, one headed by the centre-left parties and the other by the centre-right parties.[37][38]

The dialogue between non-parliamentary opposition and government parties to improve election conditions began on 28 April,[39] while some parties declined to participate in talks on electoral conditions with foreigners.[40][41] Since then, the dialogue has been ongoing.[42][43] Ivica Dačić, the president of the National Assembly, announced that the dialogue with the patronage of European Union might not begin before June 2021.[44] On 18 May, first work board dialogue without the participation of foreigners was held.[45] In early May 2021, Vučić sent a proposal to Šapić about the merging of SPAS into SNS, which was accepted on the same day by Šapić.[46][47] SPAS held inter-party talks during this period and its president Šapić announced that the party has been dissolved on 26 May.[48][49] On 29 May, Šapić was promoted to the vice president of the party,[50] and subsequently a declaration between SPAS and SNS was also formed.[51]

Constitutional changes


Judiciary

The new proposal for constitution amendments on bases of the judiciary has been proposed to the parliament in late April,[52][53] but the constitution changes need to be passed by a referendum to get fully implemented.[54] On 7 June, the parliament accepted the proposal for the change of consitution,[54][55] and the referendum might be held in fall.[56]

Some MPs that are a part of the ruling parties voiced their opposition to judiciary changes,[55] including opposition MPs such as Shaip Kamberi,[57] Vladan Glišić,[58] and the non-parliamentary political party Dveri including its leader Boško Obradović and the Movement of Free Citizens.[59][60]

Civil unions

Talks about the legalization of civil unions began to spread around in November 2020 when the Minister for Human and Minority Rights and Social Dialogue Gordana Čomić stated that the discussion about the legalization might begin in early 2021.[61] These talks continued through early 2021, and in March, Čomić announced that the draft might be passed to MPs by May.[62] Čomić previously announced in February that the dialogue about the civil unions are going to be held somewhere in the future,[63] and Boško Obradović accepted to participate in the dialogue.[64] The dialogue has not yet happened, but it is expected to be held somewhere in 2021.[65] A draft was sent to the Council of Europe in April 2021,[66][67] which they deemed to be positive.[68]

In early May, Vučić stated that he won't sign the legalization if the National Assembly accepts the draft, stating that the change is "unconstitutional".[69][70][71] A research conducted by the Civil Rights Defenders organization showed that 73% of the examiners supported LGBT rights.[72] Contrast to this, more than 200 intellectuals voiced their opposition to civil unions,[73][74] while around 1600 academics voiced their support.[74]

This move for the legalization of civil unions was opposed by socially conservative parties and politicians, such as Dveri,[75] Democratic Party of Serbia and POKS,[76] People's Party, Serbian Radical Party,[77] Serbian Party Oathkeepers,[78] Vladan Glišić,[79][80] Vuk Jeremić.[80]

Electoral system


The president of Serbia is elected using the two-round system.[81] If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a second will be held.[81] The 250 members of the National Assembly are elected by closed-list proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with an electoral threshold of 3% of all votes cast,[82] although the threshold is waived for ethnic minority parties.[83] A person willing to become a candidate needs 10,000 signatures to become an official candidate.[83] To become a candidate, a person needs to be at least 18 years old and the person does not need to be a natural-born citizen but needs to have a Serbian citizenship.[83]

Presidential candidates


Publicly expressed interest

As of June 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president.

Other potential candidates

As of June 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Parties and coalitions


This is a list of the parties that are currently represented in the National Assembly, parties that are most likely going to participate in the next election, or parties that are polled in most opinion surveys.

Party Main ideology Political position Leader Current seats
Parties and alliances currently represented in the parliament
SNS-led coalition Populism Big tent Aleksandar Vučić
198
SPSJSZSKP Populism Big tent Ivica Dačić
32
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians Minority politics Centre-right István Pásztor
9
SPPDPM Minority politics Centre-right Muamer Zukorlić
4
Party for Democratic Action Minority politics Right-wing Shaip Kamberi
3
Party of Democratic Action of Sandžak Minority politics Right-wing Sulejman Ugljanin
3
NMSSZ National conservatism Far-right Vladan Glišić
1
Major opposition extra-parliamentary political parties and alliances
SSPPSGDSPZP Social democracy Centre-left Dragan Đilas
No seats
SDSNovaGDFSMSZS Social liberalism Centre Boris Tadić
ZZS-NDB Green politics Left-wing Nebojša Zelenović
People's Party Liberal conservatism Centre-right Vuk Jeremić
DSSPOKS National conservatism Right-wing Miloš Jovanović
Enough is Enough Souverainism Right-wing Saša Radulović
Dveri National conservatism Right-wing Boško Obradović
Serbian Radical Party Ultranationalism Far-right Vojislav Šešelj

Since the 2012 parliamentary election, Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has led four pre-election coalitions in total, last being the "For Our Children" list which won 188 seats in total.[25] Some parties that participated in the pre-election list decided to form separate parliamentary groups, even though they still remain loyal to SNS. The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) has also led pre-election coalitions in the past and they're expected to participate again under a pre-election coalition.

In late 2020, a right-wing pre-election coalition was supposed to be formed in which POKS, National Network (NM) led by Vladan Glišić, Serbian Party Oathkeepers (SSZ) and Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) would take apart,[93] although this coalition idea was later dismissed, and a coalition and party protocol were formed and signed shortly after, in January 2021 right-wing parties DSS and POKS signed an agreement,[94] and in May, with 19 other movements and civic groups, they formed the National Democratic Alternative (NADA),[95] while the far-right parties NM and SSZ signed a protocol between two parties in February 2021.[96]

A potential centre-left pre-election coalition led by the Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) is possible but it still hasn't yet been formed. The Democratic Party (DS), Movement of Free Citizens (PSG) and Movement for Reversal (PZP) are the most-possible candidates.[97]

The Social Democratic Party led by Boris Tadić signed a protocol with the centrist coalition "Toleration", however, a major centrist coalition is still possible to be formed.[98] In late May, the New Party (NOVA) formed a coalition with a minor movement led by Marko Bastać.[99]

Nebojša Zelenović, the leader of the Together for Serbia formed a left-wing green coalition named "Action" in which 60 political parties and civic groups decided to join.[100][101]

Opinion polls


Polling organization Date SNS—led
coalition
SPS—led coalition SPAS DJB SSP DSSPOKS SRS PSG SSZ NS Dveri Others Lead
Faktor plus 10 May 2021 60.0 8.1 3.4 3.9 3.3 3.9 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 8.3 51.9
Ipsos 5 April 2021 58.0 7.2 3.6 4.4 3.8 4.3 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 1.4 9.0 50.8
Faktor Plus 18 February 2021 60.3 8.3 4.2 3.8 3.2 3.7 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.5 7.5 52.0
Ipsos 1 Jan 2021 61.9 9.0 3.6 3.7 1.6 4.3 2.6 0.8 1.4 0.3 1.1 9.7 51.8
DW 19 Dec 2020 46.8 11.5 6.4 5.3 2.2 6.6 3.6 2.1 1.1 2.3 12.1 35.3
Faktor Plus 4 Sep 2020 59.1 9.0 5.1 3.1 2.3 2.0 19.4 50.1

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