2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist J. D. Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.[1]

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections and 2022 Ohio elections.
Not to be confused with the 2022 Ohio Senate election.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Vance won by a 6.1 point margin, which was significantly closer than all other concurrently held elections for statewide offices in Ohio won by Republicans.[2][3] Despite his defeat, Ryan flipped four counties carried by Portman in re-election in 2016: Summit, Montgomery, Hamilton, and Lorain, the latter of which Trump won in 2020. However, Vance scored wins in Ryan's home county of Trumbull and the industrial-based Mahoning County that contains much of Youngstown. Both counties were represented by Ryan in his congressional district. Overall however, this election marked the worst Republican performance in the Class III seat since 1968 in which the Republicans won the seat, and the best Democratic performance since 1998. It is also the closest election since 1992.

Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump and became the only candidate in the seven statewide general election races funded by Trump's PAC to win.[4]

Republican primary

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads.[5] At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience. The debate moderator intervened after it was feared that the two candidates would come to blows.[6] On April 9, Gibbons said that middle-class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting. On April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator J. D. Vance, who had criticized him in the past.[7][8]

Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump's support, he surged to become the race's frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time.[9] Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020.[10] The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.[11]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Dolan
U.S. Governors
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Mike Gibbons
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
Individuals
Organizations
Josh Mandel
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Jane Timken
Executive branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
J. D. Vance
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Bernie Moreno (withdrawn and endorsed J. D. Vance)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county:
  Vance
  •   20–30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  Mandel
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  Dolan
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Former CFPB senior advisor Morgan Harper from Columbus

Disqualified

  • Demar Sheffey, treasurer of the Cuyahoga Soil and Water Conservation District[103][23]
  • Rick Taylor[104][23]
  • LaShondra Tinsley, former case manager for Franklin County Jobs and Family Services[23][14]

Declined

Endorsements

Tim Ryan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county:
  Ryan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60-70%
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Stephen Faris, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (write-in)[144]
  • John Cheng (write-in)[145]
  • Matthew R. Esh (write-in)[145]
  • Shane Hoffman (write-in)[145]
  • Lashondra Tinsley (write-in)[145]

Disqualified

General election

Ohio has trended Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As such, most analysts expected that this seat would easily remain in Republican hands. However, aggregate polling on the run-up to the election indicated a competitive race, and most outlets considered it to be “lean Republican”. In the end, J. D. Vance held the open seat for the Republicans.

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Endorsements

J. D. Vance (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Tim Ryan (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Aggregate polls
More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Graphical summary
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton
Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan
Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton
Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan
J. D. Vance vs. Amy Acton

Results

State Senate Districts Results
State House Districts Results
More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

More information By county, County ...

By congressional district

Vance won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[200]

More information District, Vance ...

Voter demographics

According to exit polls by the National Election Pool, Vance won the election (53% to 47%), winning majority of white voters (59% to 40%), while Ryan received majorities of Black vote (86% to 13%) and, to smaller extent, Latino vote (59% to 41%).[201]

More information Demographic subgroup, Ryan ...

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Patel and Pukita with 2%
  4. Pukita with 2%; Graham and Patel with 1%
  5. Patel and Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  6. Pukita with 2%, Patel with 1%
  7. Patel with 2%, Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  8. Graham with 3%; Patel with 1%; Pukita with 0%
  9. Someone else with 9%, Pukita with 1%
  10. Tinsley with 5%
  11. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. "All others" with 3%
  14. "Someone else" with 2%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%
  16. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  17. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  18. "Not going to vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. "Other" with 1%
  20. "Someone else" with 1%
  21. "Someone else" with 1%
  22. "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Protect Ohio Values PAC, which supports Vance
  2. This poll was sponsored by Mandel's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by Timken's campaign
  4. This poll was sponsored by Gibbons's campaign
  5. This poll was sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  6. This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which endorsed Mandel
  7. This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  8. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Amy Acton
  9. This poll was sponsored by American Greatness
  10. This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Vance
  11. This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign
  12. This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  13. This poll was sponsored by Innovation Ohio

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