2023_New_South_Wales_state_election
The 2023 New South Wales state election was held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
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All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 5,521,688 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 4,861,148 (88.04%) (  2.96 pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, sought to win a fourth successive four-year term in office, though were defeated by the opposition Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents also contested the election. The outcome resulted in the first Labor government in the state in 12 years, ending the longest Coalition government in New South Wales history.[1] It was also the first time since 1995 that Labor had won a New South Wales state election from opposition.[2] The election also marked the second time in history that the Australian Labor Party gained control of the entirety of Mainland Australia at the federal and state levels simultaneously (leaving Tasmania as the only state with a Liberal government), a feat last achieved in 2007.[3][4]
Though the Coalition was defeated, Labor were unable to win enough seats to govern in majority, resulting in a hung parliament. But Labor will be able to govern with the support of independent MPs Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper, and Joe McGirr, who will guarantee Labor confidence and supply.[5] Piper also made an agreement with Labor to become the Speaker of the Lower House, a role which he had been preparing for by doing duty as a deputy speaker.[6]
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.
The online voting system iVote was not used in this election. The NSW government suspended iVote after the 2021 NSW local council elections saw five wards impacted by access outages, with three significant enough that analysis suggested as high as a 60% chance the wrong candidate had been elected, after which the NSW Supreme Court ordered those elections voided and re-run.[7]
Previous election
At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.
The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.
The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.
Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.
Change of premiership, resignations and minority government
Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020.[8] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.[9]
On 1 October 2021 Berejiklian resigned as Premier following the launch of an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her personal relationship with the former member for Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire.[10] At a subsequent Liberal party room meeting, Liberal deputy leader and New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.[11] Findings about the case were not released prior to the election.[12] Despite this, Berejiklian still recorded high approval ratings, with psephologist Antony Green even claiming that should she have remained Premier, the Coalition would have been the favourites to win the election.[13]
The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences.[14] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings.[15][16] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings.[17] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly.[18]
In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state's constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election.[19] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election.[20] The success of the teal independents at the 2022 federal election prompted concern from Liberal MPs Tim James and Matt Kean, and along with other concerns caused Perrotet to portray himself as increasingly moderate.[21][22]
On 29 March 2022 the Supreme Court of NSW dissolved the Christian Democratic Party.[23][24] The race will be the first NSW state election since 1981 at which the Christian Democratic Party ("Call to Australia" prior to 1998) will not be contesting.
On 20 October 2022 Tania Mihailuk MP resigned from the NSW Labor Party[25] and announced on 17 January 2023, that she would be running second on the One Nation ticket in the election for the Legislative Council, behind party leader Mark Latham.[26]
From a poll that followed the Nazi uniform scandal, 67% said it didn't make a difference to their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition and 8% said the scandal would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition.[27]
Possibility of a hung parliament
It was widely predicted that the election would lead to a hung parliament, meaning that a party wishing to form government must obtain confidence and supply from crossbenchers. The Greens were almost certain to side with Labor, while the three ex-Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party independents would have likely sided with the Coalition. Three other independents (Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr) had given confidence and supply to the Coalition. After the election, the three confirmed that they would give confidence and supply to Labor should it be required, as Labor only won 45 seats, two seats short of a majority.[28]
On 12 January Premier Dominic Perrottet revealed that he had worn a Nazi uniform as fancy dress at his 21st birthday, apologising at a media conference after a cabinet minister was made aware of the incident. This announcement received extensive media coverage.[29][30] Despite the scandal, Perrottet received the support of his ministerial colleagues, and Labor leader Chris Minns chose not to call for Perrottet's resignation.[31][32] Robert Borsak, the leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, publicly threatened to refer Perrottet to police over the incident.[33] On 5 March 2023, NSW Labor Party had their official campaign launch.[34]
On 9 March a significant outage of the Sydney rail network caused by a communications failure saw Perrottet to apologise to customers and offer a fare-free day.[35]
On 11 March the Greens NSW had their campaign launch, where they listed their balance of power objectives.[36]
On 12 March the Liberal Party had their official campaign launch.[37][38]
On 14 March confidential documents from KPMG and Clayton Utz consultants regarding the privatisation of Sydney Water were made public. Perrottet, who was the Treasurer at the time had previously declared in March 2020 that he had no plans to even do a study on privatisation, but the documents revealed that studies had taken place in January 2020 and later in November 2021, with the reporting making it clear the study was done due to direct pressure from the Government.[39] The issue was widely discussed in Sydney newspapers and on right-wing talkback radio where commentators slammed the potential privatisation and declared that Perrottet was lying about his "lack of plans" to privatise Sydney Water.
On 21 March it was reported that Perrottet had been accused of seeking special treatment via the health minister when requesting ambulance services.[40][41][42]
Labor recommended its supporters preference the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to counter One Nation in some seats.[43]
Policies
In the 2023 New South Wales election campaign, Chris Minns and Labor made election promises to invest further into public services.[44]
Minns has been criticised for being reluctant to promise reform on money laundering in gambling,[45] however on 16 January Minns released a plan to reform gambling, banning donations from clubs (gambling organisations) to political parties and promising a cashless gaming card trial, which would last for 12 months and cover 500 of the approximately 86,480 (0.58%) pokies machines (slots).[46][47] Dominic Perrottet and the Liberals announced plans to introduce a cashless gaming card for pokie machines in clubs and pubs in NSW,[48] but a transition period where non-metropolitan pokies may be excluded from the pilot program has been discussed.[49]
One Nation ran on a platform of nuclear power and parental rights.[50]
NSW Labor pledged to enshrine government ownership of Sydney Water in the NSW state constitution,[51][52] a similar move that the Victorian government was doing with the state's SEC.
Leaders' debates
The first leaders' debate was held on Thursday, 9 February 2023 on 2GB. Perrottet was declared the winner, with the support 65% of voters in an online poll following the debate.[53]
A Channel 7 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 8 March 2023.[54]
A Channel 9 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 15 March 2023.[55][56]
A Sky News Australia leaders debate was held on 22 March 2023.[57]
| 2023 New South Wales state election debates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Organizers | Moderators | P Present | References | |
| Perrottet | Minns | ||||
| 9 February 05:30 AEDT |
2GB Radio Sydney | Ben Fordham | P | P | [58] |
| 8 March 12:00 AEDT |
Seven News/Channel 7 | Amelia Brace | P | P | [54] |
| 15 March 12:00 AEDT |
Nine News/Channel 9 Sydney Morning Herald |
Peter Overton | P | P | |
| 22 March 19:30 AEDT |
Sky News Australia Daily Telegraph |
Kieran Gilbert | P | P | [59] |
The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.[60]
In November 2020 the proposed redistribution names and boundaries were released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.[61]
The Labor-held district of Lakemba was abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney was created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[61]
A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:[61]
- Mulgoa – to be renamed Badgerys Creek
- Baulkham Hills – to be renamed Kellyville
- Ku-ring-gai – to be renamed Wahroonga
- Seven Hills – to be renamed Winston Hills
The Liberal-held Heathcote took in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and became a notionally marginal Labor seat.[62]
| Current seat | 2019 election | New seat | 2021 redistribution | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Party | Member | Margin* | ||||
| Baulkham Hills | Liberal | David Elliott | 18.68 | Kellyville | Liberal | Notional | 23.1 | ||
| Heathcote | Liberal | Lee Evans | 4.96 | Heathcote | Labor | Notional | 1.7 | ||
| Ku-ring-gai | Liberal | Alister Henskens | 20.52 | Wahroonga | Liberal | Notional | 19.0 | ||
| Lakemba | Labor | Jihad Dib | 22.42 | Abolished | |||||
| New seat | Leppington | Labor | Notional | 1.5 | |||||
| Mulgoa | Liberal | Tanya Davies | 10.13 | Badgerys Creek | Liberal | Notional | 9.7 | ||
| Seven Hills | Liberal | Mark Taylor | 6.36 | Winston Hills | Liberal | Notional | 5.7 | ||
| *These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results. | |||||||||
Fifteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[63] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.
Legislative Assembly
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 1,738,081 | 36.97 | +3.66 | 45 |  9 | ||
| Liberal | 1,259,253 | 26.78 | –5.21 | 25 | 10 | ||
| National | 403,962 | 8.59 | –1.00 | 11 | 2 | ||
| Coalition total | 1,663,215 | 35.37 | –6.21 | 36 | 12 | ||
| Greens | 455,960 | 9.70 | +0.13 | 3 |  | ||
| Sustainable Australia | 104,697 | 2.23 | +0.69 | 0 | | ||
| One Nation | 84,683 | 1.80 | +0.70 | 0 | | ||
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 73,359 | 1.56 | –1.90 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Legalise Cannabis | 60,057 | 1.28 | +1.28 | 0 | | ||
| Animal Justice | 51,548 | 1.10 | –0.42 | 0 | | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 39,480 | 0.84 | +0.61 | 0 | | ||
| Informed Medical Options | 11,529 | 0.25 | +0.25 | 0 | | ||
| Public Education | 4,150 | 0.09 | +0.09 | 0 | | ||
| Small Business | 2,025 | 0.04 | −0.03 | 0 | | ||
| Socialist Alliance | 1,464 | 0.03 | +0.00 | 0 | | ||
| Independents | 411,682 | 8.76 | +3.98 | 9 | 6 | ||
| Formal votes | 4,701,930 | 96.72 | +0.18 | – | – | ||
| Informal votes | 159,218 | 3.28 | −0.18 | – | – | ||
| Total | 4,861,148 | – | – | 93 | – | ||
| Registered voters / turnout | 5,521,688 | 88.04 | −2.96 | – | – | ||
| Two-party-preferred vote | |||||||
| Labor | 2,202,922 | 54.27 | +6.29 | ||||
| Coalition | 1,856,227 | 45.73 | –6.29 | ||||
Seats changing hands
Italics denotes MPs who did not contest at this election.
| Seat | Pre-election | Swing | Post-election | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Bankstown | One Nation | Tania Mihailuk[lower-alpha 3] | 20.5 | –0.1 to LIB | 20.3 | Jihad Dib | Labor | ||
| Camden | Liberal | Peter Sidgreaves | 7.3 | 10.3 | 3.0 | Sally Quinnell | Labor | ||
| Drummoyne | Independent | John Sidoti[lower-alpha 4] | 13.6 | –12.6 to ALP | 1.0 | Stephanie Di Pasqua | Liberal | ||
| East Hills | Liberal | Wendy Lindsay | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | Kylie Wilkinson | Labor | ||
| Heathcote[lower-alpha 5] | Liberal | Lee Evans | −1.7 | 8.3 | 9.9 | Maryanne Stuart | Labor | ||
| Monaro | National | Nichole Overall | 11.6 | 13.9 | 2.3 | Steve Whan | Labor | ||
| Parramatta | Liberal | Geoff Lee | 6.5 | 15.0 | 8.6 | Donna Davis | Labor | ||
| Penrith | Liberal | Stuart Ayres | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | Karen McKeown | Labor | ||
| Riverstone | Liberal | Kevin Conolly | 6.2 | 9.9 | 3.7 | Warren Kirby | Labor | ||
| South Coast | Liberal | Shelley Hancock | 10.6 | 14.3 | 3.8 | Liza Butler | Labor | ||
| Wakehurst | Liberal | Brad Hazzard | 21.9 | N/A | 4.5 | Michael Regan | Independent | ||
| Wollondilly | Liberal | Nathaniel Smith | 6.0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | Judy Hannan | Independent | ||
The statewide swing against the Coalition (and the swing to Labor) was highly concentrated in Sydney (particularly in Western Sydney) and on the South Coast. The Nationals lost just one seat (Monaro) and had swings against them in several National strongholds on the Mid North Coast and in the New South Wales countryside. No seats north of the Central Coast changed hands. Both Coalition parties ran candidates in the electorates of Port Macquarie (held by National-turned-Liberal MP Leslie Williams) and Wagga Wagga (held by independent member Joe McGirr). In Port Macquarie (which is a conservative seat even by regional standards), both Coalition parties made the two-party-preferred contest and Williams was re-elected as a Liberal. In Wagga Wagga, McGirr easily defeated the Nationals in the two-party-preferred contest.
Ultimately Labor gained four seats from the Coalition (Camden, Monaro, Parramatta and South Coast) due to swings of over 10 percentage points toward Labor and one seat (Riverstone) due to a swing of over 10 points against the Coalition on first-preference votes. On two-party-preferred measures Labor received a swing against them in five of their own seats (Bankstown, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Shellharbour and Summer Hill), as well as in eight Coalition-held seats (Albury, Badgerys Creek, Bathurst, Coffs Harbour, Cootamundra, Dubbo, Myall Lakes and Upper Hunter). The swing in Liverpool was 9.0 points to the Liberals, bucking the trend set by several other Sydney seats where swings against the Liberals were close to or larger than this.
Despite winning many federal seats in Sydney in 2022, only one teal independent (Judy Hannan in Wollondilly) won a seat at this election. This is likely due to optional preferential voting in New South Wales, meaning voters only need to number one box on the ballot paper (but can choose to number more), as preferences were vital for teal successes at the federal election. However, independents not affiliated with Climate 200 did win several seats; Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan gained the seat of Wakehurst from the Liberal Party and several other independents retained their seats (including the SFF-turned-independent members for Barwon, Orange and Murray, as well as the independent members of Lake Macquarie, Sydney and Wagga Wagga). Gareth Ward, a suspended Liberal MP turned independent, successfully held on to his seat of Kiama. The seat of Drummoyne (held by fellow suspended-Liberal-turned-independent John Sidoti, who did not seek re-election) was won by the Liberal challenger Stephanie Di Pasqua, technically retaining the seat for the Coalition,[lower-alpha 6] despite a 12.1% swing to Labor on two-party-preferred preferences.
All three seats held by the Greens were retained, although the party did not gain any seats. They did, however, finish second to Labor in Summer Hill. The seat of Balmain had a swing to Labor on two-party-preferred measures, while the Greens had swings to them in the two-party-preferred contests in their other two seats; Ballina (against the Nationals) and Newtown (against Labor).
One Nation, despite having a statewide swing to them, failed to win as many votes as predicted. However, the party finished second to Labor in Cessnock, a seat where the National Party candidate was disendorsed during the campaign for sexist and racist social media posts.[68]
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party had a statewide swing against them. While they did formerly hold three seats (Barwon, Orange and Murray), the members for these seats defected and became independents over disagreements with the party's leader, Robert Borsak.
On 8 April, two weeks after the election, Liberal Jordan Lane was declared the winner in Ryde, by just 50 votes over Labor candidate Lyndal Howison.[69] This was the last seat to be called, while also ending up as the most marginal seat post-election, sitting at just 0.01% for the Coalition. A recount was held on 15 April 2023, increasing the Liberal lead to 54 votes.[70]
Legislative Council
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | 2023 seats | 2019 seats | Total seats | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 1,690,445 | 36.61 | +6.93 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 1 | |
| Liberal/National joint ticket | 1,374,857 | 29.78 | –5.04 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 2 | |
| Greens | 419,346 | 9.08 | –0.64 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| One Nation | 273,496 | 5.92 | –0.97 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Legalise Cannabis | 169,482 | 3.67 | +3.67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liberal Democrats | 162,755 | 3.53 | +1.35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 144,043 | 3.12 | –2.42 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | |
| Animal Justice | 101,183 | 2.19 | +0.24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Elizabeth Farrelly Independents | 61,163 | 1.32 | −0.51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Family First | 58,361 | 1.26 | +1.26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Sustainable Australia | 42,902 | 0.93 | –0.53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Australia One | 35,888 | 0.78 | +0.78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Public Education | 34,523 | 0.75 | +0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Informed Medical Options | 21,362 | 0.46 | +0.46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Socialist Alliance | 17,056 | 0.37 | +0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| United Australia | 3,891 | 0.08 | +0.08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Revive Australia | 2,507 | 0.05 | +0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Independent | 1,356 | 0.03 | +0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Ungrouped | 965 | 0.02 | +0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Call To Freedom | 722 | 0.02 | +0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Christians For Community | 306 | 0.01 | +0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Socialist Equality | 249 | 0.01 | +0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
| Formal votes | 4,616,858 | 94.31 | +0.66 | – | – | – | – | |
| Informal votes | 278,477 | 5.69 | −0.66 | – | – | – | – | |
| Total | 4,895,335 | 100.00 | – | 21 | 21 | 42 | – | |
| Registered voters / turnout | 5,521,688 | 88.66 | −0.78 | – | – | – | – | |
Pre-election pendulum
This is an excerpt of the pre-election pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[75] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.
| Liberal/National seats (46) | |||
| Marginal | |||
| East Hills | Wendy Lindsay | LIB | 0.1% |
| Upper Hunter | Dave Layzell[lower-alpha 7] | NAT | 0.5%[lower-alpha 8] |
| Penrith | Stuart Ayres | LIB | 0.6% |
| Goulburn | Wendy Tuckerman | LIB | 3.1% |
| Tweed | Geoff Provest | NAT | 5.0% |
| Winston Hills | Mark Taylor | LIB | 5.7% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Holsworthy | Melanie Gibbons | LIB | 6.0% |
| Riverstone | Kevin Conolly | LIB | 6.2% |
| Parramatta | Geoff Lee | LIB | 6.5% |
| Oatley | Mark Coure | LIB | 6.8% |
| Camden | Peter Sidgreaves | LIB | 7.3% |
| Ryde | Victor Dominello | LIB | 8.9% |
| Myall Lakes | Stephen Bromhead | NAT | 9.3% |
| Badgerys Creek | Tanya Davies | LIB | 9.7% |
| Safe | |||
| South Coast | Shelley Hancock | LIB | 10.6% |
| Coffs Harbour | Gurmesh Singh | NAT | 10.8% |
| Epping | Dominic Perrottet | LIB | 11.3% |
| Monaro | Nichole Overall[lower-alpha 9] | NAT | 11.6%[lower-alpha 10] |
| Kiama | Gareth Ward (IND) | LIB | 12.0% |
| Terrigal | Adam Crouch | LIB | 12.3% |
| Drummoyne | John Sidoti (IND) | LIB | 13.6% |
| Labor seats (38) | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Kogarah | Chris Minns | ALP | 0.1% |
| Leppington | new seat | ALP | 1.5% |
| Heathcote | Lee Evans (LIB) | ALP | 1.7% |
| Lismore | Janelle Saffin | ALP | 2.0% |
| Coogee | Marjorie O'Neill | ALP | 2.3% |
| Londonderry | Prue Car | ALP | 3.0% |
| Bega | Michael Holland[lower-alpha 11] | ALP | 5.1%[lower-alpha 12] |
| Strathfield | Jason Yat-Sen Li[lower-alpha 13] | ALP | 5.2%[lower-alpha 14] |
| The Entrance | David Mehan | ALP | 5.3% |
| Port Stephens | Kate Washington | ALP | 5.8% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Gosford | Liesl Tesch | ALP | 7.1% |
| Maroubra | Michael Daley | ALP | 8.3% |
| Crossbench seats (9) | |||
| Murray | Helen Dalton (IND) | SFF | 2.8% v NAT |
| Ballina | Tamara Smith | GRN | 4.9% v NAT |
| Barwon | Roy Butler (IND) | SFF | 6.6% v NAT |
| Balmain | Jamie Parker | GRN | 10.0% v ALP |
| Newtown | Jenny Leong | GRN | 11.4% v ALP |
| Sydney | Alex Greenwich | IND | 11.8% v LIB |
| Orange | Philip Donato (IND) | SFF | 15.2% v NAT |
| Wagga Wagga | Joe McGirr | IND | 15.5% v NAT |
| Lake Macquarie | Greg Piper | IND | 23.2% v ALP |
Post-election pendulum
This is the post-election pendulum, based on the preliminary results of the election.[76]
| Crossbench seats (12) | |||
| Seat | Member | Party | Margin |
| Marginal | |||
| Kiama | Gareth Ward | IND | 0.8% v ALP |
| Wollondilly | Judy Hannan | IND | 1.5% v LIB |
| Balmain | Kobi Shetty | GRN | 1.8% v ALP |
| Wakehurst | Michael Regan | IND | 4.5% v LIB |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Ballina | Tamara Smith | GRN | 7.7% v NAT |
| Safe | |||
| Newtown | Jenny Leong | GRN | 12.1% v ALP |
| Sydney | Alex Greenwich | IND | 15.6% v ALP |
| Barwon | Roy Butler | IND | 16.0% v NAT |
| Murray | Helen Dalton | IND | 16.0% v NAT |
| Very safe | |||
| Orange | Philip Donato | IND | 21.9% v NAT |
| Wagga Wagga | Joe McGirr | IND | 22.4% v NAT |
| Lake Macquarie | Greg Piper | IND | 24.1% v ALP |
Notes
- Labor won the Liberal-held seat of Bega in February 2022, putting their total at 37 seats. In October 2022 Labor MP for Bankstown resigned from the party (later joining One Nation), bringing the total Labor seats back to 36.
- Since the previous election the Liberal Party has had two sitting MPs resign from the party (John Sidoti, Gareth Ward) and lost the 2022 Bega by-election.
- Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
- While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
- Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
- While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
- Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
- The margin used in the pendulum is Labor's winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
- Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
- While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
- Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
Labor
- Walt Secord MLC – announced 19 August 2022[77]
- Adam Searle MLC – lost preselection 15 September 2022[78][79][80]
- Shaoquett Moselmane MLC – did not nominate for endorsement[78][79][80]
- Guy Zangari MP (Fairfield) – announced 17 October 2022[81]
- Paul Lynch MP (Liverpool) – not preselected November 2022[82]
- Nick Lalich MP (Cabramatta) – announced 24 December 2022[83][84]
Liberal
- Shelley Hancock MP (South Coast) – announced 18 December 2021[85]
- Gabrielle Upton MP (Vaucluse) – announced 6 July 2022[86]
- Kevin Conolly MP (Riverstone) – announced 15 August 2022[87]
- Victor Dominello MP (Ryde) – announced 17 August 2022[88]
- Geoff Lee MP (Parramatta) – announced 22 August 2022[89]
- Jonathan O'Dea MP (Davidson) – announced 6 September 2022[90]
- Rob Stokes MP (Pittwater) – announced 30 September 2022[91]
- David Elliott MP (Baulkham Hills) – announced 22 October 2022[92]
- Brad Hazzard MP (Wakehurst) – announced 24 October 2022[93]
- Matthew Mason-Cox MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022[94]
- Lou Amato MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022[94]
- Shayne Mallard MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022[94]
- Peter Poulos MLC – disendorsed 18 February 2023[95]
- Scott Farlow MLC – not preselected[lower-alpha 1]
Nationals
- Stephen Bromhead[lower-alpha 2] MP (Myall Lakes) – announced 17 August 2022[97]
- Chris Gulaptis MP (Clarence) – announced 22 August 2022[98]
- Melinda Pavey MP (Oxley) – announced 28 August 2022[99]
Independent
- Justin Field MLC – announced 17 October 2022[100]
- John Sidoti MP (Drummoyne) – announced 24 November 2022[101]
Other
- Jamie Parker MP (Balmain, Greens) – announced 14 October 2022[102]
- Mark Pearson MLC (Animal Justice Party)[103]
Voting intention
Graphical summary
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the 2019 election. Local regression trends for each party.
Primary vote
Two party preferred
Opinion polls
| Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote[lower-alpha 3] | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | NAT | ALP | GRN | SFF | ONP | OTH | UND | L/NP | ALP | ||
| 24 March 2023 | Newspoll[104] | 35%* | 38% | 11% | — | — | 16% | — | 45.5% | 54.5% | |
| 22 March 2023 | Freshwater Strategy[105] | 37%* | 37% | 10% | — | — | 16% | — | 47% | 53% | |
| 19 March 2023 | Resolve Strategic[106] | 38%* | 38% | 8% | — | — | 16% | — | — | — | |
| 10–14 March 2023 | Roy Morgan[107] | 34%* | 34% | 13% | — | 2% | 17% | — | 46.5% | 53.5% | |
| 24–28 February 2023 | Roy Morgan[108] | 32.5%* | 33.5% | 11% | — | 8.5% | 14.5% | — | 47.5% | 52.5% | |
| 28 February 2023 | Resolve Strategic[109] | 32%* | 38% | 11% | — | — | 20% | — | — | — | |
| 27 February 2023 | Freshwater Strategy[110] | 37%* | 39% | 10% | 1% | — | 13% | — | 47% | 53% | |
| 26 February 2023 | Newspoll[111] | 37%* | 36% | 12% | — | — | 15% | — | 48% | 52% | |
| 21 February 2023 | Roy Morgan[112] | 35%* | 32.5% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 15%[lower-alpha 4] | — | 48% | 52% | |
| 31 January 2023 | Roy Morgan[113] | 33.5%* | 33.5% | 12% | 1% | 4.5% | 15.5%[lower-alpha 5] | — | 45% | 55% | |
| 22 January 2023 | Resolve Strategic[114] | 34%* | 37% | 12% | 2% | — | 16% | — | — | — | |
| 14–17 January 2023 | YouGov[115] | 33%* | 39% | 11% | — | — | 17% | — | 44% | 56% | |
| 20 December 2022 | Roy Morgan[116] | 37%* | 35% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 5% | 10%[lower-alpha 6] | — | 48% | 52% | |
| 16 November 2022 | Private polling[117][lower-alpha 7] | 33% | 4% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 7%[lower-alpha 8] | — | — | — |
| October 2022 | Roy Morgan[116] | 32%* | 36.5% | 9.5% | 1% | 5.5% | 13%[lower-alpha 9] | — | 43% | 57% | |
| 30 October 2022 | Resolve Strategic[118] | 35%* | 38% | 11% | 1% | — | 15% | — | — | — | |
| 13–16 October 2022 | Freshwater Strategy[119] | 36%* | 37% | 11% | 1% | — | 15% | — | 46% | 54% | |
| September 2022 | Roy Morgan[116] | 34%* | 34% | 12.5% | 1% | 3.5% | 15.5%[lower-alpha 10] | — | 47% | 53% | |
| 23 September 2022 | Newspoll[120] | 35%* | 40% | 12% | — | — | 13% | — | 46% | 54% | |
| 18 September 2022 | Resolve Strategic[121] | 30%* | 43% | 10% | 2% | — | 15% | — | — | — | |
| 12 September 2022 | Essential[122] | 36.4%* | 32% | 8.5% | — | — | — | 13% | — | — | |
| 2 July 2022 | Essential[123] | 37%* | 33% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 20 February 2022 | Resolve Strategic[124] | 37%* | 34% | 8% | 2% | — | 19% | — | — | — | |
| 25 November 2021 | Resolve Strategic[125] | 41%* | 31% | 10% | 2% | — | 16% | — | — | — | |
| 5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier | |||||||||||
| 23 September 2021 | Resolve Strategic[126] | 41%* | 30% | 11% | 2% | — | 16% | — | — | — | |
| 18 July 2021 | Resolve Strategic[127] | 43%* | 28% | 12% | 1% | — | 16% | — | — | — | |
| 4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition | |||||||||||
| 16 May 2021 | Resolve Strategic[128] | 44%* | 28% | 12% | 4% | — | 12% | — | — | — | |
| March 2021 | Redbridge[129][130][131] | 37.0% | 3.1% | 23.9% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 18.9% | 59% | 41%[132] |
| 29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition | |||||||||||
| 23 March 2019 election | 32.0% | 9.6% | 33.3% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 11.0% | – | 52.0% | 48.0% | |
| 22 March 2019 | Newspoll | 41%* | 35% | 10% | — | — | 14% | — | 51% | 49%[lower-alpha 11] | |
| * Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. | |||||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[133] | |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
Preferred Premier and satisfaction
Graphical summary
| Better Premier | ||
|---|---|---|
|
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_(cropped)_v2.jpg){kind=link}
| Perrottet approval rating | ||
|---|---|---|
|
| Minns approval rating | ||
|---|---|---|
|
Polling
| Date | Firm | Better Premier | Perrottet | Minns | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perrottet | Minns | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||||
| 24 March 2023 | Newspoll[104] | 39% | 41% | 44% | 47% | 47% | 33% | |||
| 22 March 2023 | Freshwater Strategy[105] | 46% | 40% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 21 March 2023 | Essential[134] | 36% | 33% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 19 March 2023 | Resolve Strategic[106] | 40% | 34% | 52% | 32% | 46% | 26% | |||
| 28 February 2023 | Resolve Strategic[109] | 38% | 34% | 45% | 40% | 43% | 28% | |||
| 27 February 2023 | Freshwater Strategy[110] | 46% | 34% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 26 February 2023 | Newspoll[111] | 43% | 33% | 50% | 41% | 41% | 33% | |||
| 21 February 2023 | Essential[135] | not asked | 45% | 42% | 37% | 26% | ||||
| 1–6 February 2023 | SEC Newgate[136] | 34% | 27% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 7 February 2023 | Essential[137] | not asked | 51% | 33% | 38% | 25% | ||||
| 24 January 2023 | Essential[138] | not asked | 47% | 36% | 38% | 27% | ||||
| 22 January 2023 | Resolve Strategic[114] | 33% | 29% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 16 November 2022 | Private polling[117] | not asked | 39% | 47% | 42% | 27% | ||||
| 30 October 2022 | Resolve Strategic[118] | 30% | 29% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 13–16 October 2022 | Freshwater Strategy[119] | 38% | 41% | 37% | 35% | 26% | 15% | |||
| 23 September 2022 | Newspoll[120] | 39% | 35% | 47% | 41% | 42% | 27% | |||
| 18 September 2022 | Resolve Strategic[121] | 28% | 28% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 2 July 2022 | Essential[123] | not asked | 49% | 35% | 39% | 22% | ||||
| 20 February 2022 | Resolve Strategic[124] | 29% | 32% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 25 November 2021 | Resolve Strategic[125] | 34% | 23% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 20–24 October 2021 | Essential[139] | not asked | 47% | 28% | not asked | |||||
| 5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier | Berejiklian | Minns | Berejiklian | Minns | ||||||
| 23 September 2021 | Resolve Strategic[126] | 48% | 21% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 15–18 September 2021 | Newspoll[140] | not asked | 56% | 40% | not asked | |||||
| 28 July 2021 | Utting Research[141] | not asked | 56% | 33% | not asked | |||||
| 18 July 2021 | Resolve Strategic[127] | 55% | 16% | not asked | not asked | |||||
| 4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader | Berejiklian | McKay | Berejiklian | McKay | ||||||
| 16 May 2021 | Resolve Strategic[128] | 57% | 17% | 50% | 17% | 13% | 21% | |||
| 11–16 November 2020 | Essential[142] | not asked | 75% | 17% | not asked | |||||
| 28 October – 2 November 2020 | Essential[143] | not asked | 68% | 21% | not asked | |||||
| 21–23 October 2020 | Ipsos[144][145] | 58% | 19% | 64% | 16% | 22% | 25% | |||
| 14–19 October 2020 | Essential[146] | not asked | 67% | 22% | not asked | |||||
| 16–17 October 2020 | YouGov[147] | not asked | 68% | 26% | not asked | |||||
| 15–18 July 2020 | Newspoll[148] | not asked | 64% | 30% | not asked | |||||
| 24–28 June 2020 | Newspoll[149] | not asked | 68% | 26% | not asked | |||||
| 21–26 April 2020 | Newspoll[150] | not asked | 69% | 23% | not asked | |||||
| 29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader | Berejiklian | Daley | Berejiklian | Daley | ||||||
| 23 March 2019 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
| 22 March 2019 | Newspoll | 43% | 35% | 43% | 42% | 32% | 49% | |||
| 19 March 2019 | YouGov–Galaxy[151] | 38% | 36% | not asked | ||||||
| 10 March 2019 | Newspoll[152] | 41% | 34% | 44% | 38% | 37% | 38% | |||
| 10 March 2019 | UComms–ReachTEL[153][154] | 46.7% | 53.3% | not asked | ||||||
| * Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". † Participants were forced to choose. | ||||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[133] | ||||||||||
Electoral district polling
| Date | Firm | Electorate | Voting intention | 2cp vote | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | GRN | ONP | SFF | IND | OTH | L/NP | ALP | IND | |||
| Mar 2023 | Freshwater Strategy | Riverstone | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 46% | 54% | — |
| Mar 2023 | Climate 200 | North Shore | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 50.7% | — | 49.3% |
| 27 Feb– 2 Mar 2023 |
Redbridge Group | Parramatta | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 46% | 54% | — |
| Penrith | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | 49% | — | ||
| 27 Feb 2023 | Freshwater Strategy[155] | Pittwater | 41% | 16% | 4% | — | — | 30% | 9% | 52% | — | 48% |
| Jan 2023 | Internal polling[156] | Holsworthy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | 49% | — |
| Londonderry | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 49% | 51% | — | ||
| Penrith | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 50% | 50% | — | ||
| Riverstone | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 52% | 48% | — | ||
| Winston Hills | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 45% | 55% | — | ||
| Mar 2023 | Sky News[157][158] | Goulburn | 35% | 33% | 9% | 5% | 13% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hornsby | 37% | 21% | — | 15% | — | — | — | 58% | 42% | — | ||
| Leppington | 32% | 40% | 7% | 16% | — | — | — | 48% | 52% | — | ||
| North Shore | 34% | 10% | 12% | — | — | — | 28% | 46% | — | 54% | ||
| Penrith | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | 49% | — | ||
| Wakehurst | 41% | 11% | 3% | — | — | — | 37% | 50% | — | 50% | ||
| Winston Hills | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 59% | 41% | — | ||
In the lead-up to elections, many newspapers publish editorial endorsements. The Coalition received support from several newspapers during the 2023 campaign which has been the case since the 2011 election. Nine Entertainment's Sydney Morning Herald endorsed the Coalition, stating that they believed the Coalition leader, Dominic Perrottet, should be given the opportunity to demonstrate his abilities to the people of NSW. The Daily Telegraph did not publish an editorial, but one of its columnists, Vikki Campion, warned that a Labor victory could result in "wasted money and efforts on feasibility studies, planning, and designs for safer roads and better dams." The Australian and The Australian Financial Review, both national mastheads, also endorsed the Coalition, with the latter citing their belief that the Coalition offered the best chance for getting "New South Wales through the national economic downturn and into a new phase of growth." Meanwhile, the Illawarra Mercury did not explicitly endorse a party but emphasised to readers, "there's a very real chance of a change of government on Saturday, and you might want to play your part."[159][160][161][162][163]
| Newspaper | City | Owner | Endorsement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illawarra Mercury | Wollongong | Australian Community Media | Change of government[160] | |
| Sky News Australia | Nationwide | Australian News Channel | One Nation[164] | |
| The Daily Telegraph | Sydney | News Corp | Coalition[159] | |
| The Australian | Sydney | News Corp | Coalition[161] | |
| The Australian Financial Review | Sydney | Nine Entertainment | Coalition[162] | |
| The Sydney Morning Herald | Sydney | Nine Entertainment | Coalition[163] | |
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Pearson's term is coming to an end in March 2023
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