2024_European_Parliament_election

2024 European Parliament election

2024 European Parliament election

Upcoming election for the 10th European Parliament

The 2024 European Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 to 9 June 2024.[1] This will be the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first European Parliament election after Brexit.[2][3] This election will also coincide with a number of other elections in the European Union.

Quick Facts All 720 seats to the European Parliament 361 seats needed for a majority, Leader ...

Background

In the previous election held on 23–26 May 2019, the EPP Group and S&D suffered significant losses, while Renew, Greens/EFA and ID made substantial gains, with ECR and The Left had small reduction. The European People's Party, led by Manfred Weber as Commission President candidate, won the most seats in the European Parliament. Despite this, the European Council decided after the election to nominate Ursula von der Leyen as new Commission President, and the European Parliament elected von der Leyen with 383 votes (374 votes needed). The commission was then approved by the European Parliament on 27 November 2019, receiving 461 votes.

The 2019 election saw an increase in the turnout, when 50.7% of eligible voters had cast a vote compared with 42.5% of the 2014 election. This was the first time that the tournout had increased since the first European Parliament election in 1979.[4] In 2024, the Eurobarometer data shows that 71% of Europeans say they are likely to vote in June, 10% higher than those who said they would in 2019.[5]

The election is expected to be one of the more contentious elections in the history of the European Parliament given the rise of right-wing parties in polling.[6] Since the last European-wide election, the right has continued to rise across Europe with right-wing populist parties holding political power in Hungary (Fidesz), Italy (Brothers of Italy), Sweden (Sweden Democrats), Finland (Finns Party) and Slovakia (Slovak National Party) in 2024.[7] The centre-right EPP has "raised eyebrows" among some commentators for its efforts to charm parties in the ECR to create a broad conservative block,[8] which could upset the long-standing status-quo that has seen the EPP share power with the centre-left S&D and the centrist Renew Group.[9]

Electoral system

Elections to the European Parliament are regulated by the Treaty on European Union, Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and the Act concerning the election of the members of the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage (the Electoral Act). The Electoral Act states that the electoral procedure is governed by the national provisions in each member state, subject to the provisions of the act.[10] Elections are conducted by direct universal suffrage by proportional representation using either a list system or single transferable vote.[11] The national electoral threshold may not exceed 5% of votes cast.[12]

Attempts at electoral reform

In June 2018, the Council agreed to change the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.[13] New provisions included a mandatory 2% threshold for countries with more than 35 seats and rules to prevent voters from voting in multiple countries.[14] After the Act was adopted by the Council following consent given by the European Parliament in July 2018, not all member states ratified the Act prior to the 2019 elections, which took place under the old rules. As of 2023, the reform has yet to be ratified by Cyprus and Spain;[15] Germany only ratified in summer 2023.[16]

On 3 May 2022, the European Parliament voted to propose a new electoral law, which would contain provisions for electing 28 seats on transnational lists.[17] As of 2024, this reform has not been approved by the Council, which must approve it unanimously,[18] meaning the election will be conducted under the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.

Apportionment

As a result of Brexit, 27 seats from the British delegation were distributed to other countries in January 2020 (those elected in 2019, but not yet seated took their seats).[19] The other 46 seats were abolished with the total number of MEPs decreasing from 751 to 705 after that.[20]

A report in the European Parliament proposed in February 2023 and passed in June 2023 to modify the apportionment in the European Parliament and increase the number of MEPs again in order to adapt to the development of the population and preserve degressive proportionality.[21][22] The European Council will, by unanimity, take the final decision on the size of the European Parliament and each national seat quota. On 26 July 2023, the Council reached a preliminary agreement, which would increase the size of the European Parliament to 720 seats.[23] On 13 September 2023, the European Parliament consented to this decision,[24] which was adopted by the European Council on 22 September 2023.[25]

Electoral system by country

More information Member state, Seats ...

Lead candidates

Spitzenkandidat system

In the run-up to the 2014 European Parliament elections a new informal system was unveiled for the selection of the European Commission President dictating that whichever party group gained the most seats would see their lead candidate become President of the Commission.[60] In 2014, the candidate of the largest group, Jean-Claude Juncker, was eventually nominated and elected as Commission President.[61] European party leaders aimed to reintroduce the system in 2019, with them selecting lead candidates and organizing a televised debate between those candidates.[62] In the aftermath of the election German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was chosen as Commission President, even though she had not been a candidate prior to the election, while Manfred Weber, lead candidate for the EPP, which had gained the most seats, was not nominated.[63] Following the non-application of the system in 2019, some have called for the system to be revived in the upcoming elections.[64][65][66]

The EPP,[67] PES,[68] EGP,[69] and PEL[70] announced their intensions to nominate a main candidate in 2024, while ECR and ID rejected doing so.[71]

Overview

More information European political parties, EP Group ...

European People's Party

The centre-right EPP held its congress in Bucharest on 6–7 March 2024 to elect its presidential candidate and adopt its election programme.[73] Nominees required the backing of their own member party and not more than two other EPP member parties from EU countries, with nominations closing on February 21.[74]

On 19 February 2024, Ursula von der Leyen announced her intention to run, supported by the CDU.[75] On 7 March von der Leyen was elected presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP delegates.[76] Among others, it is believed that the French and Slovenian delegations voted against.[77][78]

Party of European Socialists

The centre-left PES held its congress in Rome on 2 March. Nominees required the backing of nine PES full member parties or organisations, with nominations closing on 17 January.[79]

On 18 January, the PES announced that the Luxembourgish European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights Nicolas Schmit was the sole nominee to meet the nominating requirements.[80] He was then nominated on 2 March during the party congress, along with the adoption of the election programme.[81]

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party

The ALDE party held its extraordinary congress in Brussels on 20–21 March 2024.[82] On 7 March 2024, following months of speculation, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced that she had rejected the offer from ALDE to be the party's Spitzenkandidat.[83] Luxembourg’s former Prime Minister Xavier Bettel announced that he is not interested in the post either.[84]

On 11 March, the German FDP nominated Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann to become presidential candidate.[85] She was then elected on March 20 during the party congress, along with the adoption of the election programme.[86][87]

European Democratic Party

During the 8 March 2024 Convention in Florence, the European Democratic Party nominated Sandro Gozi as its lead candidate and approved its election programme.[88]

European Green Party

During the 2–4 February 2024 congress in Lyon, the European Green Party elected Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout as its two presidential candidates and adopted its election programme.[89][90][91] Nominees were Bas Eickhout, Elīna Pinto, Terry Reintke, Benedetta Scuderi.[92][93]

European Free Alliance

In October 2023, the congress of the European Free Alliance elected Maylis Roßberg and Raül Romeva as its presidential candidates, and adopted its election programme.[94][95]

Party of the European Left

During the 24–25 February 2024 congress in Ljubljana,[96] the PEL elected Walter Baier [de] as its presidential candidate and adopted its election programme.[97]

European Christian Political Movement

In a meeting held on 24 February 2024, the European Christian Political Movement appointed party president Valeriu Ghilețchi as its lead candidate for the European Commission.[98]

European Pirate Party

At its General Assembly in Luxembourg in January 2024, the European Pirate Party nominated Marcel Kolaja and Anja Hirschel as lead candidates.[99]

Volt Europa

On 27 November 2023, Volt Europa adopted its European election programme at its General Assembly in Paris.[100] During the 6–7 April 2024 campaign launch event in Brussels the party elected German MEP Damian Boeselager and Dutch MEP Sophie in 't Veld as its lead candidates.[101] Regarding which European Parliament group to join after the elections, Boeselager said he was “open to discussions” between remaining in Greens/EFA or joining Renew Europe in due course.[102] To emphasise its demand for transnational lists, Volt Europa also presented a symbolic transnational list for the election alongside its leading candidates.[103]

Campaign

The future of Ursula von der Leyen

Prior to the elections, the future of Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission President, was uncertain. Although Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hinted he would support von der Leyen should she choose to run for the position again,[104] his coalition government has also agreed to support the spitzenkandidat system.[105] This poses a challenge to von der Leyen's candidacy as this gives room to Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People's Party in the European Parliament, and fellow German CDU/CSU member, to propose alternative candidates, such as President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. Another option was for von der Leyen to run in the election for the Parliament to secure the support of her party.[106][107] But this was ruled out in September 2023.[108] She has been supported for a second term by the Leader of the Christian Democratic Union Friedrich Merz.[109]

On 19 February 2024, von der Leyen announced her intention to seek a second term.[75] On 7 March von der Leyen was elected European People's Party presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP congressional delegates.[110] The German government coalition agreement grants the right to nominate the next German EU Commissioner to the Greens, provided the Commission President is not from Germany.[111]

The future of Charles Michel

In January 2024, Charles Michel announced he would step down as president of the European Council to run for the European Parliament instead.[112] This means European Union leaders would potentially discuss his successor in the summer.[113] If elected to the European Parliament he would have had to step down anyway because of the dual mandate.[114] His mandate had been to set to expire in November 2024.[115] For this unanticipated decision Michel was criticised by EU officials and diplomats.[116] He was criticised by his political ally Sophie in 't Veld who questioned his "credibility".[117] This timing was reportedly set to mitigate potential disruptions from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country would be scheduled to take over the rotating presidency of the European Council on 1 July.[118] On 26 January 2024, Michel withdrew his candidacy and thus delayed his departure.[119]

Debates

More information Date and time, Location ...

Voting advice applications

Several voting advice applications at the European level have been developed to help voters choose their candidates.

The Adeno application allows users to discover the European group that best matches their convictions through 100 questions (20 in the express mode) covering 10 themes. The application also offers a multiplayer mode. It is available on Android[124] and iPhone.[125]

The VoteTracker.eu website allows users to visualise the votes of MEPs of the 2019–2024 legislature on 18 selected votes, and to find the MEPs who best match their convictions.[126]

Opinion polling and seat projections

Main article: Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2024 European Parliament election

Polling aggregations

Seat projections

Europe Elects, Der Föderalist and POLITICO have been presenting seat projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign. All projections make their national-level data transparent, except POLITICO, which only presents aggregate EU-level data.

More information Polling aggregator, Last update ...
More information Polling aggregator, Last update ...

Controversies

Conflict with Portuguese national holiday

The dates chosen for the elections conflict with a long weekend in Portugal, where Portugal Day, a national holiday, is celebrated on 10 June, which is expected to suppress turnout.[135] Despite an attempt by Portuguese leaders to find a compromise, no change was made to the default date of 6–9 June,[136] which required unanimity to be changed.

Qatargate

The ongoing Qatargate corruption scandal, which began in December 2022, has destabilized the European Parliament following the arrest of several MEPs including Marc Tarabella; Andrea Cozzolino and Eva Kaili which was stripped of her vice presidency. Other suspects in the case include Francesco Giorgi, the parliamentary assistant of MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Pier Antonio Panzeri, founder of the Fight Impunity NGO; Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, head of the No Peace Without Justice NGO; and Luca Visentini, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.[137][138]

Hungary

A majority of European Parliament MEPs voted for a nonbinding resolution demanding that the European Commission considers that Hungary be stripped of its EU voting rights.[139] The European Parliament views Hungary as a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" since 2022 and considers Hungary according to Article 7.1 of the Treaty on European Union in clear risk of a serious breach of the Treaty on European Union.[140][141]

Russia influence scandal

On 27 March, the Czech Republic sanctioned the news site Voice of Europe, claiming that the site is part of a network for pro-Russian influence.[142] The following day, Belgian Prime Minister De Croo, referring to the sanctions during a debate in the Belgian parliament, said that Russia had targeted MEPs, but also paid them.[143] On 2 April, the Czech news portal Denik N reported, citing several ministers, that there are audio recordings of the German far-right politician Petr Bystron (MP, AfD) that incriminate him of having accepted money.[144] On 12 April, it became known that the Belgian public prosecutor's office is investigating whether European politicians were paid to spread Russian propaganda. In addition to Bystron, the investigation is also targeting Dutch MEP Marcel de Graaff (FvD) and German MEP Maximilian Krah (AfD). The Ukrainian politician and businessman Viktor Medvedchuk, who is close to Russian President Putin, is believed to be the man behind Voice of Europe.[145]

See also

Concurrent elections

Notes

  1. Strack-Zimmermann is the candidate representing ALDE. In addition Sandro Gozi is the candidate representing the EDP, and Valérie Hayer is the candidate representing L'Europe Ensemble
  2. Not running for a European Parliament seat
  3. This is the legal threshold. The share of the vote needed to win a seat may be higher than this in some countries.
  4. This is the maximum vote share necessary to mathematically guarantee winning a seat. It is here calculated as the Droop quota for each country. Where the legal threshold exceeds this threshold, the legal threshold is shown instead.
  5. Depends on the constituency: 50% in the German-speaking electoral college, ~11.1% in the French-speaking electoral college, and ~7.1% in the Dutch-speaking electoral college.
  6. 1 divided by the number of seats.
  7. Hare quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  8. Denmark allows for electoral alliances between separate party lists.
  9. Seats are apportioned to parties nationally. A party can choose to only stand in some of the 16 states and have its national seat count be subapportioned to those states. Only the CDU and the CSU have done this in previous elections.
  10. Depends on the constituency: 20% in Dublin, ~16.7% in Midlands–North-West and South.
  11. Seats are apportioned to parties nationally, then subapportioned to the constituencies.
  12. Droop quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  13. Not a lead candidate, but selected to participate on behalf of the group in pre-election debates.[72]
  14. Lead candidate for ALDE, representing in the debate the entire Renew Europe parliamentary group

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