2024 European Parliament election


The next election to the European Parliament is scheduled to be held in 2024, in line with the Treaty of Lisbon.[1][2] This will be the first European Parliament election scheduled after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

2024 European Parliament election

 2019 TBD (2024)

All seats to the European Parliament

Incumbent European Commission

Von der Leyen Commission


Popular vote and seat projections


There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EU election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.[p 1]

Seats

The following table shows the projected number of seats for the groups in the EU Parliament.

Organisation Release
date
Area GUE/ NGL S&D Greens/ EFA RE EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
Europe Elects[p 2] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 52 144 55 94 156 75 77 34 18 12
Europe Elects[p 3] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 51 146 58 92 155 76 74 35 18 9
Europe Elects[p 4] 2 May 2021 EU27 52 144 56 93 158 75 74 34 19 14
Europe Elects[p 5] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 51 151 52 93 159 74 74 32 19 8
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.[3]
Der Föderalist[p 6] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 53 141 48 107 184 73 71 28 43
Europe Elects[p 7] 5 Jan 2021 EU27 55 138 47 97 190 73 72 22 11 52
Europe Elects[p 8] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 55 136 48 95 195 68 73 23 12 59
Europe Elects[p 9] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 54 136 48 93 197 70 74 24 9 61
Der Föderalist[p 10] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 52 136 52 102 193 71 71 28 57
Europe Elects[p 11] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 55 136 49 95 195 71 77 23 4 59
Europe Elects[p 12] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 55 134 49 96 196 71 75 24 5 62
Europe Elects[p 13] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 54 134 49 97 198 70 75 23 5 64
Europe Elects[p 14] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 54 133 48 97 198 71 77 24 3 65
Europe Elects[p 15] 28 May 2020 EU27 55 135 47 98 197 70 77 23 3 62
Europe Elects[p 16] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 55 140 46 94 193 72 78 23 4 53
Europe Elects[p 17] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 57 135 51 92 188 72 83 21 6 53
Europe Elects[p 18] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 56 133 55 99 184 68 85 21 6 51
Europe Elects[p 19] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 55 130 53 101 182 70 85 23 6 52
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[4]
Europe Elects[p 20] 31 Dec 2019 EU27 54 131 52 102 182 70 86 25 3 51
Europe Elects[p 21] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 53 153 52 103 177 103 82 25 3 24
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 49 157 61 107 176 95 80 25 1 19
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 46 151 62 115 175 92 78 30 2 24
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 48 151 63 118 170 87 79 32 3 19
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 47 154 64 116 166 89 80 32 3 12
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 48 153 65 117 168 85 79 33 3 15
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 46 145 74 119 167 64 80 54 2 22
Redistribution of seats after Brexit 1 Feb 2020 EU27 40 148 68 97 187 62 76 27 39
2019 European Parliament election 26 May 2019 EU28 41 154 74 108 182 62 73 57 28

Popular vote

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2024 European Parliament election using a 6-poll moving average. From 31 January, the United Kingdom is not included.

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.

Organisation Release
date
Area GUE/ NGL S&D Greens/ EFA RE EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
Europe Elects[p 2] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 7.2% 17.9% 8.0% 11.8% 21.2% 10.3% 10.6% 5.0% 8.0% 3.3%
Europe Elects[p 3] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 7.8% 18.0% 9.1% 11.4% 20.6% 10.5% 10.4% 5.0% 7.1% 2.6%
Europe Elects[p 16] 2 May 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.3% 8.5% 11.3% 20.3% 10.5% 10.6% 5.1% 7.4% 2.0%
Europe Elects[p 17] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 8.0% 18.7% 8.2% 11.2% 21.6% 10.2% 10.8% 4.9% 6.3% 2.9%
Europe Elects[p 7] 2 Mar 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.9% 7.5% 11.1% 23.1% 10.3% 10.8% 3.8% 6.6% 4.2%
Europe Elects[p 7] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 8.2% 18.6% 7.5% 10.9% 24.4% 10.1% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% 5.8%
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group[3]
Europe Elects[p 7] 31 Dec 2020 EU27 8.4% 18.9% 7.5% 10.9% 24.1% 10.2% 10.5% 3.6% 5.9% 5.2%
Europe Elects[p 8] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.7% 10.9% 24.8% 9.5% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% 6.3%
Europe Elects[p 9] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 7.6% 18.4% 7.7% 10.8% 25.0% 9.9% 10.6% 4.0% 6.1% 6.6%
Europe Elects[p 11] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 7.9% 17.9% 7.8% 11.4% 24.4% 9.7% 11.0% 4.1% 5.7% 6.5%
Europe Elects[p 12] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 8.1% 18.3% 7.4% 11.5% 25.0% 9.6% 10.9% 4.1% 5.2% 6.7%
Europe Elects[p 13] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.0% 7.2% 11.5% 25.3% 9.4% 10.8% 3.8% 6.0% 7.3%
Europe Elects[p 14] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 8.3% 17.9% 7.4% 11.6% 25.7% 9.5% 10.9% 4.1% 4.6% 7.8%
Europe Elects[p 15] 28 May 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.0% 7.2% 11.3% 25.2% 9.6% 11.1% 4.0% 5.4% 7.2%
Europe Elects[p 16] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.2% 10.9% 25.3% 9.8% 11.4% 3.9% 4.7% 6.8%
Europe Elects[p 17] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 8.5% 18.2% 8.0% 10.7% 24.1% 10.0% 11.8% 3.8% 4.9% 5.9%
Europe Elects[p 18] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 9.1% 18.0% 8.4% 10.9% 22.7% 9.7% 12.5% 3.8% 4.9% 4.7%
Europe Elects[p 19] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.6% 8.4% 12.4% 20.5% 12.1% 12.1% 4.0% 3.9% 1.9%
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[4]
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 8.1% 18.8% 8.2% 11.8% 20.9% 12.4% 11.9% 4.2% 3.7% 2.1%
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 8.0% 18.4% 8.4% 12.3% 20.3% 12.0% 12.0% 4.0% 3.8% 1.9%
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Oct 2019 EU28 6.5% 17.8% 8.3% 13.1% 20.3% 10.0% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% 2.5%
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.5% 8.3% 12.3% 19.6% 9.7% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% 0.1%
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 6.9% 19.0% 8.7% 12.9% 20.0% 9.6% 11.4% 5.6% 5.9% 1.0%
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.0% 9.4% 12.8% 19.3% 9.3% 11.5% 5.3% 6.7% 0.3%
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 6.9% 18.9% 10.3% 13.3% 19.1% 9.8% 11.4% 5.1% 5.2% 0.2%
2019 European Parliament election[5] 26 May 2019 EU27 7.0% 18.9% 11.2% 12.3% 22.6% 8.1% 11.5% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7%
2019 European Parliament election[p 1] EU28 6.5% 18.5% 11.7% 13.0% 21.0% 8.2% 10.8% 4.8% 5.5% 2.5%

Opinion poll sources

  1. "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  2. Jensen, Linus Folke (9 July 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Greens down, ID up". Europe Elects. Retrieved 9 July 2021.
  3. Jensen, Linus Folke (5 June 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: May Proves Out To Be a Stable Month". Europe Elects. Retrieved 9 July 2021.
  4. Jensen, Linus Folke (2 May 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Centre-Left Takes a Hit". Europe Elects. Retrieved 2 May 2021.
  5. Jensen, Linus Folke (2 March 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Historic Setback for the Centre-Right". Europe Elects. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
  6. "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 2021-07-15.
  7. "EU Parliamentary Projection: Rounding Up the Tumultuous 2020". Europe Elects. Retrieved 6 January 2021.
  8. "EU Parliamentary Projection: The Right-Wing in Retreat". Europe Elects. Retrieved 6 December 2020.
  9. "EU Parliamentary Projection: Talent-Show Judges, Folk Singers, and Eastern Europe". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
  10. "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2020): Sozialdemokraten verlieren, Liberale und Rechte gewinnen". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 28 October 2020.
  11. "EU Parliamentary Projection: Second Wave of the Pandemic and Europeans Rally No More". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 October 2020.
  12. "EU Parliamentary Projection: No Domino-Effect Caused by Brexit in Sight". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
  13. "EU Parliament Projection: Centre-Right EPP Would Win EU Election". Europe Elects. Retrieved 21 August 2020.
  14. "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020.
  15. "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020.
  16. "EU Parliament Projection: Corona Rallies Europeans Around the Flag". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 March 2020.
  17. "EU Parliament Projection: Government Parties Still Gaining". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 April 2020.
  18. "European Parliament Projection: Ireland, Thuringia, and the Aftermath". Europe Elects. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  19. "European Parliament Projection: The EU Parliament Post-Brexit". Europe Elects. February 2020. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  20. "2024 EU election projection". Twitter. Retrieved 31 December 2019.
  21. "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 December 2019.

References


  1. "EUR-Lex - 12007L/TXT - EN - EUR-Lex". eur-lex.europa.eu. Retrieved 2021-07-15.
  2. "Elections". European Parliament. Retrieved 2021-07-15.
  3. Crowcroft, Orlando (2021-03-03). "Hungary PM Orban's party quits the largest group in European Parliament". Euronews. Retrieved 2021-07-09.
  4. Jamieson, Alastair; Crowcroft, Orlando (2020-01-31). "Sadness and celebration as Britain leaves the European Union". Euronews. Retrieved 2021-07-09.
  5. "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 November 2020.