2024 European Parliament election

The next election to the European Parliament is scheduled to be held in 2024.[1] This will be the first European Parliament election scheduled after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

2024 European Parliament election
← 2019 TBD (2024)
All seats to the European Parliament
Incumbent European Commission

Von der Leyen Commission

Popular vote and seat projections

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EU election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.[2]

Seats

The following table shows the projected number of seats for the groups in the EU Parliament.

Institute Date Scope GUE/NGL S&D Greens/EFA RE EPP ECR ID NI Others
Europe Elects[3] 2021-05-02 EU27 52 144 56 93 158 75 74 34 19
Europe Elects[4] 2021-04-02 EU27 51 151 52 93 159 74 74 32 19
3 March 2021: Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group after a set of new rules is introduced in the group.[5]
Der Foderalist 2021-02-02 EU27 53 141 48 107 184 73 71 28 -
Europe Elects[6] 2021-01-05 EU27 55 138 47 97 190 73 72 22 11
Europe Elects[7] 2020-12-02 EU27 55 136 48 95 195 68 73 23 12
Europe Elects[8] 2020-10-31 EU27 54 136 48 93 197 70 74 24 9
Der (europäische) Föderalist[9] 2020-10-04 EU27 52 136 52 102 193 71 71 28 -
Europe Elects[10] 2020-10-04 EU27 55 136 49 95 195 71 77 23 4
Europe Elects[11] 2020-08-31 EU27 55 134 49 96 196 71 75 24 5
Europe Elects[12] 2020-08-14 EU27 54 134 49 97 198 70 75 23 5
Europe Elects[13] 2020-07-24 EU27 54 133 48 97 198 71 77 24 3
Europe Elects[14] 2020-05-28 EU27 55 135 47 98 197 70 77 23 3
Europe Elects[15] 2020-04-30 EU27 55 140 46 94 193 72 78 23 4
Europe Elects[16] 2020-03-31 EU27 57 135 51 92 188 72 83 21 6
Europe Elects[17] 2020-02-29 EU27 56 133 55 99 184 68 85 21 6
Europe Elects[18] 2020-01-31 EU27 55 130 53 101 182 70 85 23 6
31 January 2020: The United Kingdom leaves the European Union
Europe Elects[19] 2019-12-31 EU27 54 131 52 102 182 70 86 25 3
Europe Elects[20] 2019-12-31 EU28 53 153 52 103 177 103 82 25 3
Europe Elects[21] 2019-11-30 EU28 49 157 61 107 176 95 80 25 1
Europe Elects[22] 2019-10-31 EU28 46 151 62 115 175 92 78 30 2
Europe Elects[23] 2019-09-30 EU28 48 151 63 118 170 87 79 32 3
Europe Elects[24] 2019-08-31 EU28 47 154 64 116 166 89 80 32 3
Europe Elects[25] 2019-07-31 EU28 48 153 65 117 168 85 79 33 3
Europe Elects[26] 2019-06-30 EU28 46 145 74 119 167 64 80 54 2
post-Brexit EU Parliament 2020-02-01 EU27 40 148 68 97 187 62 76 27 -
pre-Brexit EU Parliament 2019-05-26 EU28 41 154 74 108 182 62 73 57 -

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2024 European Parliament election using a 6-poll moving average. From 31 January, the United Kingdom is not included.

Popular vote

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.

Institute Date Scope GUE/NGL S&D Greens/EFA RE EPP ECR ID NI Others
Europe Elects[6] 2021-05-02 EU27 7.9% 18.3% 8.5% 11.3% 20.3% 10.5% 10.6% 5.1% 7.4%
Europe Elects[6] 2021-04-02 EU27 8.0% 18.7% 8.2% 11.2% 21.6% 10.2% 10.8% 4.9% 6.3%
Europe Elects[6] 2021-03-02 EU27 7.9% 18.9% 7.5% 11.1% 23.1% 10.3% 10.8% 3.8% 6.6%
Europe Elects[6] 2021-02-02 EU27 8.2% 18.6% 7.5% 10.9% 24.4% 10.1% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0%
3 March 2021: Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group after a set of new rules is introduced in the group.[5]
Europe Elects[6] 2020-12-31 EU27 8.4% 18.9% 7.5% 10.9% 24.1% 10.2% 10.5% 3.6% 5.9%
Europe Elects[7] 2020-12-02 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.7% 10.9% 24.8% 9.5% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0%
Europe Elects[8] 2020-10-31 EU27 7.6% 18.4% 7.7% 10.8% 25.0% 9.9% 10.6% 4.0% 6.1%
Europe Elects[10] 2020-10-04 EU27 7.9% 17.9% 7.8% 11.4% 24.4% 9.7% 11.0% 4.1% 5.7%
Europe Elects[11] 2020-08-31 EU27 8.1% 18.3% 7.4% 11.5% 25.0% 9.6% 10.9% 4.1% 5.2%
Europe Elects[12] 2020-08-14 EU27 8.0% 18.0% 7.2% 11.5% 25.3% 9.4% 10.8% 3.8% 6.0%
Europe Elects[13] 2020-07-24 EU27 8.3% 17.9% 7.4% 11.6% 25.7% 9.5% 10.9% 4.1% 4.6%
Europe Elects[14] 2020-05-28 EU27 8.2% 18.0% 7.2% 11.3% 25.2% 9.6% 11.1% 4.0% 5.4%
Europe Elects[15] 2020-04-30 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.2% 10.9% 25.3% 9.8% 11.4% 3.9% 4.7%
Europe Elects[16] 2020-03-31 EU27 8.5% 18.2% 8.0% 10.7% 24.1% 10.0% 11.8% 3.8% 4.9%
Europe Elects[17] 2020-02-29 EU27 9.1% 18.0% 8.4% 10.9% 22.7% 9.7% 12.5% 3.8% 4.9%
Europe Elects[18] 2020-01-31 EU27 8.0% 18.6% 8.4% 12.4% 20.5% 12.1% 12.1% 4.0% 3.9%
Europe Elects[27] 2019-12-31 EU28 8.1% 18.8% 8.2% 11.8% 20.9% 12.4% 11.9% 4.2% 3.7%
Europe Elects[28] 2019-11-30 EU28 8.0% 18.4% 8.4% 12.3% 20.3% 12.0% 12.0% 4.0% 3.8%
Europe Elects[29] 2019-10-31 EU28 6.5% 17.8% 8.3% 13.1% 20.3% 10.0% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9%
Europe Elects[30] 2019-09-30 EU28 6.6% 19.5% 8.3% 12.3% 19.6% 9.7% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9%
Europe Elects[31] 2019-08-31 EU28 6.9% 19.0% 8.7% 12.9% 20.0% 9.6% 11.4% 5.6% 5.9%
Europe Elects[32] 2019-07-31 EU28 6.6% 19.0% 9.4% 12.8% 19.3% 9.3% 11.5% 5.3% 6.7%
Europe Elects[33] 2019-06-30 EU28 6.9% 18.9% 10.3% 13.3% 19.1% 9.8% 11.4% 5.1% 5.2%
European election 2019[34] 2019-05-26 EU27 7.0% 18.9% 11.2% 12.3% 22.6% 8.1% 11.5% 4.3% 4.1%
European election 2019[35] 2019-05-26 EU28 6.5% 18.5% 11.7% 13.0% 21.0% 8.2% 10.8% 4.8% 5.5%

References

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  4. Jensen, Linus Folke (2 May 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Historic Setback for the Centre-Right". Europe Elects. Retrieved 2 May 2021.
  5. de La Baume, Maïa (3 March 2021). "Orbán's Fidesz quits EPP group in European Parliament". POLITICO Europe. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
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  9. "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2020): Sozialdemokraten verlieren, Liberale und Rechte gewinnen". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 28 October 2020.
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