2024_Finnish_presidential_election

2024 Finnish presidential election

2024 Finnish presidential election

Election in Finland

Presidential elections were held in Finland on 28 January 2024, with a second round held on 11 February.[1] Voters elected a president of the Republic for a six-year term. Incumbent president Sauli Niinistö was term-limited and ineligible to run for re-election, having served the maximum two terms, ensuring the president elected would be the country's thirteenth.[2]

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Had the new president been elected in the first round on 28 January by winning more than half of valid votes cast, their term would have begun on 1 February. However, as no candidate received a majority of votes, Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto contested in a runoff on 11 February with Stubb winning 51.6% to Haavisto's 48.4%. The result in the second round was the closest in the history of presidential elections in Finland, followed by the 2000 presidential runoff.[3] Stubb began his term as president on 1 March.[4]

Background

The presidential election was the first in Finland since it joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2023 in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ending decades of neutrality in foreign policy. The decision was supported by the outgoing president Sauli Niinistö, whose constitutional position also makes him the commander-in-chief of the Finnish Defence Forces and gives him responsibility for defence and foreign policy affairs. Niinistö, who is the only Finnish president to have been elected with an outright majority (62.7 percent) in the first round of voting in a direct popular election during his reelection in 2018, enjoyed over 90 percent popularity ratings since 2021. He rejected efforts by a citizen movement to allow him to run for a third term.[5] An estimated 4.5 million people are eligible to vote in the 2024 election.[6]

Candidates

According to the Constitution of Finland, the president must be a natural-born Finnish citizen.[7] In order to vote in the election, the person must be a Finnish citizen and at least 18 years of age.[8] A candidate may be nominated by a registered political party that has secured at least a single representative in the parliament in the preceding parliamentary election, by a constituency association that has gathered at least 20 000 signatures from eligible voters, or both. The whole country acts as a single constituency.[9]

Confirmed candidates

Out of the nine confirmed candidates, three were officially running as constituency association candidates, although two also received the nomination of their respective parties. The rest were nominated by a political party.[10]

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Unsuccessful candidacies

The following notable individuals sought to register as independent candidates, but were unable to collect the 20,000 supporter cards required for registration:

More information Candidate name and age, political party, Political office(s) ...

Campaign

Mika Aaltola

Mika Aaltola, the director of Finnish Institute of International Affairs, announced his candidacy on 3 August 2023.[13] He is running as an independent candidate, and therefore must assemble 20,000 signatures from qualified voters to establish a constituency association in order to run for the presidency. Aaltola emerged as a surprise candidate in a presidential survey published by Yle on 28 March 2022.[14] On 27 May 2022, similar results were obtained from a survey conducted by Ilta-Sanomat.[15] Aaltola commented that he was humbled by the results and that "In a situation where the candidates would solely represent Finlandization and behind-the-scenes dealings, I would feel a calling to attempt the impossible for the benefit of my homeland. Therefore, my stance would entirely depend on the candidate lineup."[16]

In a subsequent survey published by Ilta-Sanomat on 21 October 2022, Aaltola had unexpectedly risen to the top.[17] After the results, Aaltola stated: "There is a one percent chance that I will become the President of Finland." He did not completely rule out his candidacy and stated that he would announce a possible candidacy at a later time.[18] On 31 October 2022, Aaltola tweeted: "I am not currently running for any position. My focus is on the ongoing war and the geopolitical challenges of the winter."[19] On 4 November 2022, Helsingin Sanomat published a comprehensive personal profile and interview with Aaltola. Many of the sources interviewed in the article noted that Aaltola no longer behaves like an expert but rather speaks like a preacher or a politician.[20] The same day Aaltola tweeted, that "I have no intention of running for the presidential elections."[21]

On 11 April 2023, Aaltola tweeted that "My support in presidential surveys remains persistently encouraging, even though I have stated a practical "no" on multiple occasions. This was based on the fact that it is practically impossible [to win] outside of political parties. Should I reconsider the matter in the autumn if the support persists?"[22] In the presidential poll commissioned by Yle in May 2023, Aaltola was the favorite as the next president of around 13% of the respondents.[12] On 10 October 2023 Mika Aaltola's support association announced that they had collected 25,000 endorsement cards for Aaltola, exceeding the required 20,000 endorsement card threshold for candidacy.[23]

Li Andersson

Li Andersson, the leader of the Left Alliance and former Minister of Education, announced her candidacy on 13 September 2023.[24] She was confirmed as the Left Alliance candidate at a party council meeting on 15 October 2023.[25]

Sari Essayah

Sari Essayah, the leader of the Christian Democrats and incumbent Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, was chosen as the party's presidential candidate at a party meeting on 27 August 2023.[26]

Pekka Haavisto

Pekka Haavisto, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Member of Parliament for the Green League, announced his candidacy on 8 June 2023. Haavisto has run for the office twice before, in 2012 and 2018, both times finishing second behind the incumbent President Sauli Niinistö. Haavisto is running as an independent candidate in the presidential elections. The collection of signatures in support of Haavisto began immediately on the same day he announced his candidacy.[27]

According to multiple polls, Haavisto is currently the leading candidate for the presidency. He is the most popular candidate among women and younger voters, as well as across party lines. In the presidential poll commissioned by Yle in May 2023, Haavisto was the favorite as the next president of around 28% percent of the respondents.[12] In a presidential survey published by Ilta-Sanomat on 13 June 2023, which aimed to determine the potential result of a hypothetical second round in the presidential elections, Haavisto emerged as the winner when compared to all the other major potential candidates.[28]

On 3 October 2023, Haavisto's campaign announced that they had so far collected 48,000 endorsement cards, exceeding the required 20,000 endorsement card threshold for candidacy.[29] Should Haavisto win the election, he would be the first openly gay person to become President of Finland.[30]

Jussi Halla-aho

Jussi Halla-aho, the Speaker of the Parliament of Finland and a Member of Parliament for the Finns Party, announced his candidacy on 7 July 2023.[31] His candidacy was confirmed by the party congress in August.[32] In a survey conducted by Uutissuomalainen in January 2023 among party delegates, over 80 percent of respondents considered Halla-aho the most suitable presidential candidate for the party. In a similar survey conducted in summer 2021, Halla-aho ranked behind Laura Huhtasaari.[33] In the presidential poll commissioned by Yle in May 2023, Halla-aho was the favorite as the next president of around 6% of the respondents.[12]

Hjallis Harkimo

Hjallis Harkimo, a businessman and the chairman of his own political party Movement Now, was elected as the party's presidential candidate on 18 June 2022.[34] Harkimo became well known in Finland as the owner of the ice hockey team Jokerit and as the face of the TV show "Diili", the Finnish version of The Apprentice. In the presidential poll commissioned by Yle in May 2023, Harkimo was the favorite as the next president of around 1% of the respondents.[12]

Olli Rehn

Olli Rehn, the Governor of the Bank of Finland and a member of the Centre Party, announced his bid for the presidency on 21 June 2023.[35] Rehn is running as an independent candidate in the elections. The collection of signatures took place at events across the country during the summer of 2023.[36] In the presidential poll commissioned by Yle in May 2023, Rehn was the favorite as the next president of around 15% of the respondents.[12] On 15 September 2023, Rehn's campaign announced that they have collected the required 20,000 endorsement cards for candidacy.[37]

Alexander Stubb

Alexander Stubb, the former Prime Minister of Finland and a Member of Parliament for the National Coalition Party, announced his candidacy on 16 August 2023, after he had been formally asked to be the party's presidential candidate.[38] In the presidential poll commissioned by Yle in May 2023, Stubb was the favorite as the next president of around 5% of the respondents.[12][39] When asked about the most preferred candidate of the National Coalition Party, Stubb was the favorite of 40% of the respondents, while Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen was preferred by 16%, former MP Risto E. J. Penttilä by 9% and Minister for Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen by 8%.[40]

Jutta Urpilainen

Jutta Urpilainen, the Finnish European Commissioner, former minister and chair of the Social Democratic Party, was frequently mentioned as a possible candidate for the SDP. On 16 August 2023, the chairman of the Social Democratic Party Sanna Marin asked Urpilainen to run in the 2024 presidential election as the party's candidate. Urpilainen promised to announce her decision only in November 2023.[41] The leadership of the SDP had hoped Urpilainen to be a candidate already in the 2018 presidential elections, but she declined the candidacy citing family reasons.[42] On 19 November 2023, Urpilainen announced her candidacy.[43] This led senior party officials to use life-size cutouts of her in campaign sorties before she began personally campaigning in December 2023.[44] In the presidential poll commissioned by Yle in May 2023, Urpilainen was the favorite as the next president of around 2% of the respondents.[12]

Expenditure

Financial disclosures released after the election showed that Alexander Stubb's campaign team spent 2.7 million euros during the election period and received 1.2 million euros in private donations, 610,000 euros from businesses and around 710,000 euros from the National Coalition Party. Pekka Haavisto's campaign was found to have spent 1.9 million and received about 1.3 million euros from individual donors, 310,000 euros from the corporate sector, and 160,000 euros from the Green League.[45]

Electoral issues

The electoral campaign has mostly been dominated by international and security issues that have risen since the country's accession to NATO in 2023, particularly relations with Russia.[46] All nine candidates in the first round expressed hard stances on relations with Moscow, with Jussi Halla-aho and Alexander Stubb supporting the idea of revoking Finnish citizenship from dual Russian-Finnish nationals. Halla-aho also supported pushing back migrants at the Finnish-Russian border in response to gatherings of migrants to the area that were suspected to have been orchestrated by the Russian government.[47] Pekka Haavisto supported the closure of the border with Russia, but expressed concern about how the influx of migrants has been used to justify rhetoric against asylum seekers.[48] Stubb also expressed support for the deployment of nuclear weapons in Finland, while Haavisto objected to the idea as well as that of the remilitarization of Åland.[49]

In response to an ongoing massive strike that began during the election campaign, Stubb distanced himself from his National Coalition Party's support for employers and employees' freedom to settle disputes locally and said he would not interfere with labor market issues as president. Haavisto said he would try to bring the parties together for behind-the-scenes negotiations.[50]

Debates

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Second round endorsements

Pekka Haavisto
Politicians
Actors
Musicians
Other notable individuals
Alexander Stubb
Politicians
Foreign leaders
Athletes
Other notable individuals

Opinion polls

First round

Candidates

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Potential candidates

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Second round

Pekka Haavisto vs. Alexander Stubb

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Hypothetical second rounds

Pekka Haavisto vs. Olli Rehn
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Pekka Haavisto vs. Mika Aaltola
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Pekka Haavisto vs. Jussi Halla-aho
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Pekka Haavisto vs. SDP candidates
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Alexander Stubb vs. Olli Rehn
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Alexander Stubb vs. Mika Aaltola
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Alexander Stubb vs. Jussi Halla-aho
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Additional

A poll commissioned by the University of Helsinki to find voters' reasons for not choosing specific candidates that was conducted before the first round of voting found that a third of respondents said they would not support Haavisto's candidacy on account of his same-sex Ecuadorian partner, Antonio Flores, with university professor Jaakko Hillo noting that most of those who cited this as an issue were more likely to describe themselves as right-wing conservatives.[79]

Youth election

The Finnish National Youth Council, or Allianssi, held a mock election between 8 January and 12 January for people under the age of 18. The participants included among others schools and local youth councils from 198 different municipalities. Number of votes cast was a record 94,456, and the results were as follows:[80]

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Disinformation

In the days leading up to the vote, some Finns Party supporters accused the public broadcaster Yle of being biased against Jussi Halla-aho, prompting Yle's CEO to respond that "Yle does not campaign against or for anyone." Several of Halla-aho's rivals also defended the broadcaster, with Jutta Urpilainen describing the allegations as the "international trend of right-wing populists questioning elections for their own gain arriving in Finland as well", and Pekka Haavisto saying that there were no "signs of outside interference despite concerns regarding that". Dimitri Qvintus, a Social Democrat party official and spokesperson for former prime minister Sanna Marin, said that the allegations "would fit perfectly with the new Finns Party playbook" of trying to promote doubt in the election results in the event that Halla-aho loses the election, adding that the government should have immediately addressed these claims.[81]

Fake posters appeared in tram stops in Helsinki, in which images of Jussi Halla-aho were altered to include phrases such as "Fascist Halla-aho" and "Finland must be a safe space for Nazis." An altered poster of Haavisto was also displayed with a falsely-attributed quote.[82]

Voting

First round

Early voting opened on 17 January,[83] with turnout estimated at 44 percent,[84] or about 1.88 million votes,[85] an increase from the 36.7 percent recorded in 2018.[86] This continued until 23 January. Voting at overseas polling stations that were set up in Finnish diplomatic missions was conducted from 17 to 20 January,[87] during which 58,757 out of an estimated 263,000 eligible Finnish citizens abroad voted, an increase of 6,253 from 2018.[88] In the first round of voting on 28 January, polling stations opened at 09:00,[85] and closed at 20:00.[89] Initial results are expected at around midnight, while official results are expected to be confirmed on 30 January.[90]

Second round

For the runoff, early voting was held from 31 January to 6 February while overseas voting ran from 31 January to 3 February.[87] Turnout in advanced voting reached 46 percent, or around 1.96 million voters.[91] In the second round of voting on 11 February, polling stations opened at 09:00 and closed at 20:00. The result of the second round were confirmed on 14 February.[92]

Results

Most popular candidate by constituency in the first round
Most popular candidate by constituency in the second round
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Aftermath

Following the result of the first round, Alexander Stubb said: "We have at this stage gotten the kind of result for which we can be grateful and humble." Pekka Haavisto described his showing as "a really great result." Jussi Halla-aho said that he had to be "satisfied" with the result, noting that it had been "better" than what he had expected. It was the Finns party's best presidential election result in history. Olli Rehn expressed thanks to the voters. Mika Aaltola said that he was happy that foreign and security policy were on the electoral agenda but said that it would take some time before he would "take on something like this again." Rehn, Sari Essayah, and Harry Harkimo declined to endorse any candidate in the runoff, with Essayah saying that "citizens can vote according to their preference," and Harkimo saying that both Stubb and Haavisto "have the same opinions about everything."[93]

Following the result of the second round, Haavisto conceded defeat to Stubb and publicly shook hands with him at Helsinki City Hall. In response, Stubb expressed appreciation and pride at having been "able to run" with him.[94] He also called his victory as "the greatest honour" of his life.[95]

Reactions

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Stubb on his victory and said that he was looking forward "to advancing our relations and our shared vision of a free, united, and well-defended Europe".[96]

Notes

  1. Despite filing to run as an independent, Haavisto's candidacy was endorsed by the Green League.
  2. Despite filing to run as an independent, Rehn's candidacy was endorsed by the Centre Party.

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