2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024. Primary elections will take place on July 30, 2024.[1]

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023.[2] However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term.[3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are running for the Republican nomination.

Background

The race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Gallego to be the favorite to win.[4][5]Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a swing state.[6][7] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[8] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[9]

Independents

Candidates

Declined

Endorsements

Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023, Candidate ...

Democratic primary

See also: Replace Sinema Project

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[14] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[15] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[16] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[17]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[2]

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Ruben Gallego
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Political parties
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Kari Lake
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
Organizations
Individuals
Mark Lamb
Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Arturo Hernandez[64]
  • Michael Norton, attorney[64]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (I)
Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R) vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate" (I)
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 6%"
  3. "Someone else" with 13%
  4. Wouldn't vote with 2%
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 6%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
  3. Poll sponsored by The Hill.
  4. Poll sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign.
  5. Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
  6. Poll sponsored by NRSC.
  7. This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  8. This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
  9. Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
  10. Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

References

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