2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley was first elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote defeating Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill and is running for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

Background

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[citation needed]

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, despite there being three subsequent elections won by Democrats.[citation needed]

In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[citation needed]

The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[citation needed]

Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party.[2][3][4][5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Endorsements

Josh Hawley
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023, Candidate ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Lucas Kunce
U.S. representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Karla May
State representatives
Local officials
Wesley Bell (withdrawn)
State officials
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023, Candidate ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

  • Jared Young (Independent), payroll services executive[54]
  • W. C. Young (Libertarian)[55]

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023, Candidate ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Josh Hawley vs. Lucas Kunce
Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Notes

  1. Bricklayers Administrative District Council of Missouri and Locals 1 and 15
  2. Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and IAFF 2nd district and Local 2665
  3. Locals 1, 27, and 63
  4. Locals 264, 663, and 1290
  5. Locals 8, 268, 314, 533, and 669
  6. $6,102 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
  7. $205,000 of this total was self-funded by Young
  8. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Missouri Scout
  2. Poll sponsored by Kunce's campaign

References

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    "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
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    "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
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    PFEM 2665 (@pfem2665) (August 30, 2023). "On Monday night members of @PFEM2665 continued our strong tradition of political action as we rallied for US Senate candidate @LucasKunceMO alongside @iaffdist2 VP Mark Woolbright. Thanks for leading the charge, brothers and sisters!". Twitter. Retrieved September 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
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Official campaign websites
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