2024_United_States_elections

2024 United States elections

2024 United States elections

U.S. political contexts


The 2024 United States elections are scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. During this presidential election year, the president and vice president will be elected. In addition, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested to determine the membership of the 119th United States Congress. Thirteen state and territorial governorships and numerous other state and local elections will also be contested.

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Issues

Abortion

This will be the first presidential election held after the overturn of Roe v. Wade, and the third overall election cycle after the 2022 midterm elections and the 2023 off-year elections. Republican-controlled states predominately passed near-total bans on abortion in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's June 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision. By April 2023, abortion was "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States.[1] According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there were 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion explicitly without exceptions for rape or incest: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.[1] In states with laws granting exceptions, it was reported de facto that "very few exceptions to these new abortion bans have been granted" and that patients who had been raped or otherwise qualified for exceptions were being turned away, citing "ambiguous laws and the threat of criminal penalties make them unwilling to test the rules".[2]

Democrats outperformed Biden's results in the 2020 U.S. presidential election in several 2022 House special elections, with abortion cited as a major contributor to their victories.[3] Then during the 2023 elections, both Democratic and Republican operatives attributed the Democrats' overperformance streak to the growing bipartisan support of broad abortion rights in the wake of Dobbs decision.[4][5] Thus, many conservative political analysts and commentators called a continued Republican alliance with the anti-abortion movement "untenable" and an "electoral disaster", and urged the party to favor abortion rights.[6] Some issue polling has shown Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, outrunning his party and closing the gap with Democrats on the issue of abortion, but no election data with Trump directly on the ballot has happened to verify these results.[7]

Mark Robinson, who once advocated for a complete abortion ban without exceptions, underwent a rhetorical shift in his North Carolina gubernatorial campaign. In 2018, he had labeled abortion as 'murder' and 'genocide,' but as the leading Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina in 2024, he avoided mentioning abortion on the campaign trail. However, his stance softened following the Supreme Court's 2022 Dobbs decision and the passage of North Carolina's 12-week abortion ban in May 2023. Robinson, who had shifted to emphasizing the term 'life' instead of 'abortion,' expressed support for 'heartbeat' legislation with exceptions for rape, incest, and the mother's life. Despite his past harsh rhetoric, Robinson's then-current position reflected a more nuanced approach to anti-abortion legislation.[8]

Indictments

On November 18, 2022, three days after former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump announced his 2024 re-election bid, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith as special counsel to investigate Trump's role in the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack and Trump's mishandling of government documents, including classified documents.

On March 30, 2023, Trump was indicted by a grand jury in Manhattan for his alleged role in a scandal stemming from hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.[9]

On May 10, 2023, Republican New York Congressman George Santos was indicted on federal charges of fraud and money laundering.[10]

On June 8, 2023, Trump was indicted on 37 federal charges related to his alleged mishandling of classified documents by the office of the Smith special counsel investigation.[11]

On August 1, 2023, a Washington, D.C., federal grand jury indicted Trump again on four felony counts of conspiracy and obstruction related to Trump's role in the January 6 attack and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.[12]

On August 14, a Georgia grand jury indicted Trump on racketeering and other felonies committed in an effort to overturn the state's 2020 election results and the Trump–Raffensperger phone call.[13][14] As of September 15, 2023, Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges.

On August 11, four months after incumbent president and Democratic candidate Joe Biden announced his re-election bid, Garland appointed David C. Weiss to serve as special counsel to investigate Biden's son, Hunter Biden, who was indicted on September 14, 2023, on three federal firearms-related charges.[15][16]

On September 22, 2023, Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey and his wife Nadine were both indicted on bribery charges.[17][18]

On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court removed Trump from the state's 2024 Republican primary, citing the Fourteenth Amendment's ban on candidates who engage in insurrections.[19] This decision was later overturned by the US Supreme Court on March 4, 2024.[20]

Federal elections

Presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. This will be the first presidential election under the electoral vote distribution determined by the 2020 census. Presidential electors who will elect the President and Vice President of the United States will be chosen; a simple majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes are required to win the election. President Joe Biden is running for a second term, with Vice President Kamala Harris once again serving as his running mate.[21] Other individuals have launched their candidacies in the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries, though the last time a sitting president eligible for re-election did not win re-nomination from their respective party was in the 1968 presidential election.[22]

In November 2022, former President Donald Trump announced his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election.[23] Other candidates who have entered the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries include former South Carolina governor and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley and current Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who has since suspended his campaign.[24] The first Republican presidential debate was held on August 23, 2023, and the first primary contest was the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, which was held on January 15, 2024.[25]

In October 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his run as an independent presidential candidate.[26] By the next month, Kennedy's polling was at the highest levels for a candidate outside the two major parties since Ross Perot in 1992.[27][28]

Congressional elections

Senate elections

All 33 seats in Senate Class 1 and one seat in Senate Class 2 will be up for election; at least one additional special election will take place to fill vacancies that arise during the 118th Congress. Democrats control the majority in the closely-divided Senate following the 2022 U.S. Senate elections, but they will have to defend 23 seats in 2024. Three Democratic-held seats up for election are in the heavily Republican-leaning states of Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, all of which were won comfortably by Trump in both 2016 and 2020.[29] Other potential Republican targets include seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maryland, while Democrats may target Republican-held seats in Florida and Texas.[30]

Special elections

Two special elections are scheduled to fill the unexpired terms of senators who vacated their seats during the 118th Congress:

House of Representatives elections

All 435 voting seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election. Additionally, elections will be held to select the non-voting members who represent the District of Columbia and all five permanently-inhabited U.S. territories in the House of Representatives. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives following the 2022 U.S. House elections.[36]

Special elections

Five special elections to the House of Representatives are scheduled to be held in 2024.

State elections

Gubernatorial elections

Elections will be held for the governorships of eleven of the fifty U.S. states and two U.S. territories. Special elections may be held for vacancies in the other states and territories, if required by respective state or territorial constitutions.

Attorney general elections

Ten states will hold attorney general elections.

Secretary of State elections

Seven states will hold elections.

State Treasurer elections

Ten states will hold elections.

Legislative elections

Most legislative chambers will hold regularly-scheduled elections in 2024. The exceptions are the Michigan Senate, Minnesota Senate, and both legislative chambers in the states of Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. In chambers that use staggered terms, only a portion of the seats in the chamber will be up for election.

Other executive and judicial elections

In addition to gubernatorial elections, various other executive and judicial positions will hold elections at the state level in 2024.

Local elections

Mayoral elections

A number of major U.S. cities have held mayoral elections in 2024:

Eligible incumbents

Ineligible or retiring incumbents

Tribal elections

In January, the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation elected Sandra Pattea tribal president,[69] ousting long-term tribal leader Bernadine Burnette, who first joined the tribal council in 1992.[70] Also in January, the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community elevated Cole Miller from vice chair to tribal chairman.[71]

In February, the Confederated Tribes of Coos, Lower Umpqua and Siuslaw Indians elected Doug Barrett tribal chief in a special election to fill the remainder of Donald "Doc" Slyter's term, which expires in April 2030. Slyter died in November 2023.[72][73]

In March, the Apache Tribe of Oklahoma reelected Durell Cooper III as tribal chairman.[74]

Referendums

In June, the Cherokee Nation will hold a referendum on whether or not to hold a constitutional convention to amend or replace the tribe’s constitution. Also in June, the Osage Nation will consider a constitutional amendment about executive appointments.[74]

Table of state, territorial, and federal results

This table shows the partisan results of presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative races held in each state and territory in 2024. Note that not all states and territories hold gubernatorial, state legislative, and Senate elections in 2024. The five territories and Washington, D.C., do not elect members of the Senate, and the territories do not take part in presidential elections; instead, they each elect one non-voting member of the House. Nebraska's unicameral legislature and the governorship and legislature of American Samoa are elected on a non-partisan basis, and political party affiliation is not listed.

More information State/Territory, 2022 PVI ...

Violent threats

The election campaign has been marked by widespread doxxing, swatting, and threats against politicians and activists, with a particular series of incidents starting in December 2023.[77][78][79]

Notes

  1. This column reflects the individual who won a plurality of the state's popular vote in the 2024 presidential election.
  2. A coalition of 19 Republicans, 2 Democrats, and 2 Independents controlled the Alaska House of Representatives, while a grand coalition of 9 Democrats and 8 Republicans controlled the Alaska Senate.
  3. One of Arizona's senators, Mark Kelly, is a Democrat. The other senator from Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema, was elected as a Democrat but registered as an Independent in December 2022.
  4. One of Maine's senators, Susan Collins, is a Republican. The other senator from Maine, Angus King, is an independent who has caucused with Democrats since taking office in 2013.
  5. Though a majority of its members identify as Republicans, the unicameral Nebraska Legislature is officially nonpartisan.
  6. One of Vermont's senators, Peter Welch, is a Democrat. The other senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, was elected as an independent and has caucused with Democrats since taking office in 2007.
  7. The federal district does not have a governor or state legislature but elects the mayor of Washington, D.C., as well as the Council of the District of Columbia.
  8. Although elections for governor of American Samoa are non-partisan, Governor Lemanu Peleti Mauga affiliates with the Democratic Party.
  9. Although Guam does not have a vote in the Electoral College, the territory has held a presidential advisory vote for every presidential election since 1980.
  10. A coalition of independents and Democrats control the Northern Mariana Islands House of Representatives and Senate.[76]
  11. Puerto Rican Governor Pedro Pierluisi is a member of the Puerto Rican New Progressive Party, but affiliates with the Democratic Party at the national level.
  12. Puerto Rico's Resident Commissioner, Jenniffer González, was elected as a member of the New Progressive Party and has caucused with Republicans since taking office in 2017.

References

  1. Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
  2. Walker, Amy Schoenfeld (January 21, 2023). "Most Abortion Bans Include Exceptions. In Practice, Few Are Granted". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 13, 2023. ...But in the months since the court's decision, very few exceptions to these new abortion bans have been granted, a New York Times review of available state data and interviews with dozens of physicians, advocates and lawmakers revealed. Instead, those with means are traveling to states where abortion is still broadly legal or are obtaining abortion pills at home because the requirements to qualify for exceptions are too steep. Doctors and hospitals are turning away patients, saying that ambiguous laws and the threat of criminal penalties make them unwilling to test the rules.
  3. Knowles, Hannah (November 7, 2023). "Abortion rights advocates win major victories in Ohio, Kentucky". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2023.
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