2024 United States presidential election


The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are distributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden would be eligible to seek reelection to a second term.[2]

2024 United States presidential election

 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win

The electoral map for the 2024 election, based on populations from the 2020 census

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Background


Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[3] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Effects of the 2020 census

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[4][5] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[6]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[7] In 2020, although Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,[8][9] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[10][11][9]

Campaign issues


COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of July 2021, has killed over 600,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 550 Americans),[12] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[13]

Candidates


Democratic Party

Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president, elected for his first term in office in the 2020 election, and has stated he intends to run for reelection for a second term in 2024. He is the oldest person to assume the office, at age 78, and would be 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of his second term, if reelected.

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Other potential candidates

As of August 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Speculation about Vice President Kamala Harris has been discussed in the context of Biden not seeking re-election,[15] whereas speculation about Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been discussed in the context of a challenge to either Harris or an incumbent Biden.[16]

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and was impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time. He was acquitted in his second impeachment in 2021, and is currently eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms, potentially making him both the 45th and 47th president of the United States (assuming Biden is still the incumbent in January 2025).[30][31] The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the candidate of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933.

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of August 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Libertarian Party

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Primary election polling


Democratic Party

Polls with Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 2] 57% 22%[lower-alpha 3] 15%[lower-alpha 4]
Statewide polling
Iowa caucuses
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Other Undecided
Victory Insights April 8, 2021 600 (V) 63% 11%[lower-alpha 5] 26%
New Hampshire primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Apr 16–20, 2021 787 (A) ±2.2% 64% 18%[lower-alpha 6] 17%
Polls without Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Stacey
Abrams
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Andrew
Cuomo
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Michelle
Obama
Beto
O'Rourke
Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez
Andrew
Yang
Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 463 (LV) 5% 3% 4% 2% 31% 3% 19% 3% 5% 3% 6%[lower-alpha 7] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 459 (LV) 4% 4% 6% 1% 35% 3% 16% 2% 7% 2% 9%[lower-alpha 8] 13%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 9% 41% 5% 4% 8% 3% 29%[lower-alpha 10]
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 458 (LV) 4% 5% 2% 34% 4% 20% 2% 3% 4% 6%[lower-alpha 11] 12%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 443 (LV) 4% 7% 1% 28% 3% 23% 2% 8% 4% 6%[lower-alpha 12] 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 445 (LV) 3% 5% 5% 25% 2% 29% 7% 8%[lower-alpha 13] 18%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 445 (LV) ± 3.1% 2% 6% 5% 29% 2% 23% 6% 5%[lower-alpha 14] 23%
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 461 (LV) 2% 8% 8% 18% 25% 6% 6%[lower-alpha 15] 28%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 390 (LV) ± 2.8% 6% 6% 16% 21% 19% 6% 6% 9% 8% 3%[lower-alpha 16]
Statewide polling
Iowa caucuses
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
John
Kerry
Amy
Klobuchar
Michelle
Obama
Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Other Undecided
Victory Insights April 8, 2021 600 (V) 15% 28% 7% 9% 12% 2% 2% 3% 5% 16%
New Hampshire primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Other Undecided
Saint Anselm College March 4–6, 2021 418 (LV) 45% 26%[lower-alpha 17] 30%

Republican Party

Nationwide polling
Polls with Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Tucker
Carlson
Ted
Cruz
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Josh
Hawley
Larry
Hogan
Mike
Pence
Mike
Pompeo
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Tim
Scott
Donald
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 2% 19% 3% 0% 1% 8% 0% 3% 1% 1% 47%[lower-alpha 18] - 2%[lower-alpha 19] 13%
31% 58%[lower-alpha 18] 11%
John Bolton Super PAC July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) 5% 13% 5% 0% 6% 3% 0% 46% 22%
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) 59%[lower-alpha 18] 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) 4% 9% 3% 8% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[lower-alpha 18] 8%[lower-alpha 20] 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 378 (A) 65% 19%[lower-alpha 21] 16%
Quinnipiac May 18–24, 2021 ~290 (A)[lower-alpha 22] 66% 30%[lower-alpha 23] 4%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) 1% 3% 8% 5% 10% 1% 2% 0% 1% 57%[lower-alpha 18] 7%[lower-alpha 24] 7%
Echelon Insights May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) 63%[lower-alpha 18] 31% 6%
Morning Consult/Politico May 14–17, 2021 782 (RV) ± 2% 4% 8% 4% 0% 0% 13% 1% 4% 1% 2% 48% 7% 9%[lower-alpha 25]
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 348 (A) 68% 22%[lower-alpha 26] 10%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 27] [lower-alpha 18] 62% 27%[lower-alpha 28] 11%[lower-alpha 29]
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) 59%[lower-alpha 18] 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) 1% 3% 7% 2% 10% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[lower-alpha 18] 8%[lower-alpha 30] 9%
PEM Management Corporation Apr 3–7, 2021 494 (LV) 7% 9% 9% 6% 3% 44% 1%[lower-alpha 31]
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) 60%[lower-alpha 18] 30% 10%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% 3% 7% 6% 1% 1% 9% 1% 5% 2% 0% 51%[lower-alpha 18] - 3%[lower-alpha 32] 12%
57%[lower-alpha 33] 16%[lower-alpha 34] 27%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) 1% 5% 4% 3% 8% 3% 1% 54%[lower-alpha 18] 9%[lower-alpha 35] 10%
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) 5% 7% 2% 18% 2% 52%[lower-alpha 18] 13%[lower-alpha 36]
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) 55%[lower-alpha 18] 32% 14%
Morning Consult/Politico Feb 14–15, 2021 645 (RV) ± 4% 4% 6% 1% 1% 12% 2% 4% 2% 1% 54% 6% 10%[lower-alpha 37]
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[lower-alpha 38] 48%[lower-alpha 18] 40% 11%
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[lower-alpha 39] ± 3.09% 6% 2% 7% 1% 6% 13% 2% 19% 3% 3% 29%[lower-alpha 18] 2% 6%[lower-alpha 40]
Ipsos/Axios Jan 11–13, 2021 334 (A) ± 5.8% 57% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 41]
Morning Consult/Politico Jan 8–11, 2021 702 (RV) 7% 6% 1% 0% 18% 1% 5% 2% 1% 40% 6% 15%[lower-alpha 42]
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 442 (LV) 3% 5% 1% 3% 11% 1% 4% 1% 1% 56% 5%[lower-alpha 43] 10%
Fox News Dec 6–9, 2020 ~ 413 (RV) ± 4.5% 71% 21%[lower-alpha 44] 8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 4% 2% 4% 9% 1% 4% 2% 1% 53%[lower-alpha 18] 6%[lower-alpha 45] 15%
Morning Consult/Politico Nov 21–23, 2020 765 (RV) ± 2% 4% 4% 1% 0% 12% 4% 2% 1% 53% 8% 11%[lower-alpha 46]
HarrisX/The Hill Nov 17–19, 2020 599 (RV) ± 2.26% 75% 25%
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[lower-alpha 47] ± 2.5% 2% 6% 7% 1% 19% 4% 2% 35% 11% 4%[lower-alpha 48]
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[lower-alpha 49] ± 3.09% 4% 7% 4% 22% 2% 8% 5% 45%[lower-alpha 18] 5%[lower-alpha 50]
YouGov/Washington Examiner October 30, 2020 – (RV)[lower-alpha 51] 38% 43%[lower-alpha 52]
Polls without Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Tucker
Carlson
Ted
Cruz
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Josh
Hawley
Larry
Hogan
Mike
Pence
Mike
Pompeo
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Tim
Scott
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
Echelon Insights July 19–23, 2021 421 (RV) 1% 9% 32% 4% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 53] 17% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 6%[lower-alpha 54] 13%
Echelon Insights July 19–23, 2021 421 (RV) 1% 9% 32% 4% 1% 17% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 5%[lower-alpha 55] 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 7% 39% 4% 0% 1% 15% 1% 3% 2% 4%[lower-alpha 56] 24%
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) 1% 6% 21% 6% 0%[lower-alpha 57] 0%[lower-alpha 58] 14% 0%[lower-alpha 59] 4% 3% 2% 7% 7%[lower-alpha 60] 26%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) 6% 24% 4% 19% 1% 5% 2% 1% 15% 13%[lower-alpha 61] 11%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) 1% 12% 18% 5% 19% 2% 3% 1% 2% 13% 13%[lower-alpha 62] 12%
Echelon Insights May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) 2% 9% 22% 5% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 63] 14% 1% 4% 1% 3% 6% 9%[lower-alpha 64] 19%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 65] 15% 35% 6% 1% 10% 10% 21%[lower-alpha 66]
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) 2% 8% 20% 6% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 67] 16% 1% 4% 2% 0%[lower-alpha 68] 9% 3%[lower-alpha 69] 28%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) 3% 10% 14% 3% 19% 2% 3% 3% 1% 15% 13%[lower-alpha 70] 14%
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) 4% 5% 17% 4% 16% 4% 3% 2% 3% 7%[lower-alpha 71] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% 13% 17% 8% 2% 1% 19% 4% 5% 4% 1% 7%[lower-alpha 72] 20%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) 1% 9% 9% 5% 15% 6% 2% 21% 16%[lower-alpha 73] 17%
RMG Research/Just the News Feb 25–27, 2021 363 (RV) 8% 18% 21% 10% 2% 9% 33%[lower-alpha 74]
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) 16% 10% 6% 41% 7% 19%[lower-alpha 75]
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) 1% 10% 8% 6% ≤1% 1% 21% 1% 4% ≤1% ≤1% 8% 12%[lower-alpha 76] 26%
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[lower-alpha 77] 2% 8% 2% 9% 0% 0% 21% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 10%[lower-alpha 78] 30%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[lower-alpha 79] ± 3.09% 9% 3% 8% 2% 7% 22% 3% 20% 4% 3% 11% 8%[lower-alpha 80]
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 7% 2% 6% 20% 1% 5% 3% 2% 20% 13%[lower-alpha 81] 22%
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[lower-alpha 82] ± 3.1% 6% 14% 6% 44% 3% 11% 6% 7%[lower-alpha 83]
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 449 (LV) 2% 5% 2% 8% 30% 5% 2% 1% 20% 5%[lower-alpha 84] 21%
Echelon Insights Aug 14–18, 2020 423 (LV) 2% 4% 7% 0% 1% 26% 5% 1% 12% 11%[lower-alpha 85] 29%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 309 (LV) ± 2.8% 7% 8% 11% 31% 3% 9% 5% 17% 9%[lower-alpha 86]
Statewide polling
Florida primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Marco
Rubio
Rick
Scott
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Feb 15–17, 2021 304 (LV) 64% 12% 10% 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/News4JAX July 16–18, 2019 280 (LV) 37% 26% 18% 19%
Georgia primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Chris
Christie
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 87] 70% 18%[lower-alpha 88] 12%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 209 (LV) ± 7% 1% 5% 3% 2% 3% 73%[lower-alpha 18] 2%
1% 15% 8% 36% 6% 3% [lower-alpha 89] 7% 24%
Iowa caucuses
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Kristi
Noem
Mike
Pence
Mike
Pompeo
Mitt
Romney
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
Victory Insights Released March 14, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 90] 4% 4% 6% 2% 8% 2% 5% 61%[lower-alpha 18] 5% 3%
16% 20% 10% 6% 19% 6% 5% [lower-alpha 89] 7% 6%
Maine primary
Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Marco
Rubio
Ivanka
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% 21%
Missouri primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Josh
Hawley
Mike
Pence
Ivanka
Trump
Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Dec 2–3, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.4% 29% 32% 13% 26%
New Hampshire primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Tucker
Carlson
Tom
Cotton
Ted
Cruz
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Kristi
Noem
Mike
Pence
Mike
Pompeo
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Tim
Scott
Donald
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire July 15–19, 2021 770 (LV) 0% 2% 19% 6% 2% 5% 0% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 91] 10%
John Bolton Super PAC/Saint Anselm College May 7–10, 2021 635 (RV) ±3.9% 2% 20% 7% 2% 4% 1% 2% 0% 52% 0%[lower-alpha 92] 10%
University of New Hampshire Apr 16–20, 2021 787 (A) ±2.2% 59% 34%[lower-alpha 93] 7%
University of New Hampshire Mar 18–22, 2021 703 (A) ±2.3% 66% 31%[lower-alpha 94] 3%
Victory Insights Mar 5–11, 2021 – (LV) 2% 5% 4% 0% 6% 0% 8% 62%[lower-alpha 18]
400 (RV) 1% 5% 3% 0% 6% 0% 13% 52%[lower-alpha 18]
– (LV) 12% 25% 7% 1% 20% 4% 11% [lower-alpha 89]
400 (RV) 10% 21% 7% 1% 18% 3% 15% [lower-alpha 89]
University of New Hampshire Feb 18–22, 2021 764 (A) ±2.3% 58% 36%[lower-alpha 95] 7%
University of New Hampshire Jan 21–25, 2021 804 (A) 47% 45%[lower-alpha 96] 8%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Praecones Analytica/NH Journal Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 624 (RV) ± 4% 1% 2% 4% 7% 6% 7% 2% 2% 57%[lower-alpha 18] 3% 10%
4% 6% 10% 12% 25% 8% 4% 3% [lower-alpha 89] 14% 14%
University of New Hampshire Nov 19–23, 2020 533 (RV) 73% 22%[lower-alpha 97] 5%
North Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 221 (RV) ± 7% 3% 6% 3% 2% 76%[lower-alpha 18] 5% 6%
9% 9% 48% 9% 3% [lower-alpha 89] 4% 18%
South Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
Trafalgar (R) Mar 25–29, 2021 1,014 (LV) ± 2.99% 64% 11%[lower-alpha 98] 25%[lower-alpha 99]

General election polling


Nationwide opinion polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided Lead
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) 45.7% 43.3% 11% 2.4%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 22–24, 2021 1,592 (A) 47% 35% 18% 12%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 1,588 (A) 46% 36% 18% 10%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 1,561 (A) 48% 36% 16% 12%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,106 (A) 45% 28% 27% 17%
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac Apr 3–7, 2021 1,000 (LV) 46.4% 42.2% 11.5% 4.2%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Undecided Lead
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) 45% 28% 27% 17%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) 41% 25% 34% 16%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Undecided Lead
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,107 (A) 44% 19% 37% 25%
Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ted
Cruz
Republican
Undecided Lead
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) 46% 24% 30% 22%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided Lead
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) 47% 40% 13% 7%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 1,000 (LV) 45% 49% 6% 4%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) 45% 49% 6% 4%
Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Mike
Pence
Republican
Undecided Lead
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) 45% 36% 19% 9%
Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Undecided Lead
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) 43% 31% 26% 12%

Statewide opinion polling

Arizona
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Lead
Bendixen/Amandi International June 17–23, 2021 600 (LV) 4% 51% 44% 5% 7%
Missouri
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Lead
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout April 21–22, 2021 933 (LV) 53% 38% 9% 15%
New Hampshire
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided Lead
John Bolton Super PAC/Saint Anslem College May 7–10, 2021 1,267 (RV) ± 2.8% 51% 43% 6% 8%

Timeline


See also


Notes


  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  3. "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
  4. "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
  5. "Someone else" with 11%
  6. 18% do not want Biden run in the 2024 presidential election
  7. John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  8. Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  9. Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  10. "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
  11. Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
  12. John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
  13. John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  14. Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  15. John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
  16. Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
  17. "If Joe Biden decides not to run for re-election, someone else" with 26%
  18. Standard VI response
  19. Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  20. Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  21. "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
  22. 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
  23. "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
  24. Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  25. Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  26. "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
  27. Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  28. "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
  29. "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
  30. John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  31. Kristi Noem with 1%
  32. Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  33. On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
  34. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
  35. Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  36. "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  37. Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  38. GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  39. Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[76]
  40. Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
  41. Listed as "Skipped"
  42. Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  43. John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  44. "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
  45. John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  46. Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
  47. 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  48. Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
  49. Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  50. John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
  51. Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
  52. Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
  53. No voters
  54. "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
  55. "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
  56. Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%
  57. No voters
  58. No voters
  59. No voters
  60. "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%
  61. Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  62. Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  63. No voters
  64. Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
  65. Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  66. "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
  67. No voters
  68. No voters
  69. Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
  70. Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
  71. Greg Abbott with 2%; “Someone else,” Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
  72. Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  73. Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
  74. "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
  75. "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
  76. Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
  77. GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  78. Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  79. Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[76]
  80. Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
  81. Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
  82. Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  83. Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
  84. John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  85. "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  86. Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
  87. Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
  88. "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 14%; would not vote with 4%
  89. If Donald Trump did not run
  90. Not yet released
  91. "Other" with 9%, Tom Cotton with 0%
  92. Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 0%
  93. 34% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  94. 31% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  95. 36% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  96. 45% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  97. 22% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  98. "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
  99. "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%

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