31st_Alberta_general_election

2023 Alberta general election

2023 Alberta general election

Provincial election in Canada

The 2023 Alberta general election was held on May 29, 2023.[1] Voters elected the members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. The United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith, the incumbent Premier of Alberta, was re-elected to government with a reduced majority.[2] Across the province, 1,763,441 valid votes were cast in this election.[3]

Quick Facts All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta 44 seats needed for a majority, Turnout ...

The writs of election were issued on May 1, triggering the campaign. This was the first election following 2021 amendments to Alberta's Election Act which had set the date of the election to the last Monday of May, subject to the lieutenant governor's usual authority to dissolve the legislature sooner in accordance with the conventions of the Westminster system.

Background

The 2019 Alberta general election resulted in a majority government for the United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney. The election of the new United Conservative government was widely predicted by pollsters and academics during the campaign. The United Conservatives captured 54.88 per cent of the popular vote and won 63 of the 87 seats in the Alberta Legislature.[4] The incumbent New Democratic Party, led by Premier Rachel Notley, experienced a drop in its popular vote share from 40.62 per cent in the 2015 Alberta general election to 32.67 per cent, and formed the Official Opposition with 24 seats.[4] The Alberta Party, led by former Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel, received 9.08 per cent of the popular vote but failed to win any seats in the legislature. Various other parties and independent candidates combined for 3.37 per cent of the popular vote, without gaining any seats in the legislature. Journalist Graham Thomson described the 2019 election campaign as "more vicious, more personal, and more divisive" than any other campaign in Alberta's history.[5]

The United Conservatives were formed through the merger of the two major conservative parties in Alberta, the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta and the Wildrose Party, in 2017. Jason Kenney, a former member of Parliament and minister in Stephen Harper's Conservative Party of Canada federal government, won the 2017 Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta leadership election on a platform of uniting the right-wing parties in Alberta.[6] The merger took place after 95 per cent of Wildrose Party members voted in favour of joining the new United Conservative Party and forming the Official Opposition.[7] In the same year, Jason Kenney won the 2017 United Conservative Party leadership election and became the leader of the Opposition.[8]

Initially, the Kenney government enjoyed substantial support among Albertans, with an approval rating of 60 per cent in June 2019.[9] Kenney's approval rating started to decline with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta,[9] dropping below 50 per cent in February 2020 and falling further to below 33 per cent by June 2021.[10] Growing dissatisfaction within the United Conservative Party led to calls for a leadership review, with discontent primarily centred around the Kenney government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, Central Peace-Notley MLA Todd Loewen resigned, and the United Conservative Caucus voted to expel both Loewen and Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes on May 13, 2021.[11] On May 18, 2022, Kenney announced his intention to resign as the leader of the United Conservative Party, after receiving only 51.4 per cent support during the party's leadership review.[12]

The 2022 United Conservative Party leadership election was held on October 6. Former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith returned to politics and defeated five other candidates to become the party leader.[13][14] After being sworn in as the premier of Alberta on October 11,[15] the Smith ministry was presented on October 21.[16] On May 1, 2023, acting on the premier's advice, the lieutenant governor dissolved the legislature and called an election for May 29.[17]

Procedure

Procedures for provincial elections in Alberta are governed by the Election Act, and financial regulatory aspects are governed under the Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act. Eligibility to vote in 2023 was limited to Canadian citizens aged 18 years of age or older, and who was an ordinary resident of an Alberta electoral district.[18]

Under the Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act, total expenses by political parties were limited to a total of $3,208,127 during the election period from when the writ was dropped to the election day, which was $1.16 per registered elector. Individual candidates expenses were limited to $53,100 during the election period. Third-party advertisers were limited to $159,200 during the election period.[19]

In 2021, the Alberta Legislature passed the Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2021 (No. 2), which amended both the electoral acts to fix the election date to be the last Monday in May unless the lieutenant governor dissolves the Legislature sooner. The bill raised total election expense limits for each political party from $2 million to a formula of $1.16 per elector, which was expected to be near $3.2 million. The bill also prohibited an entity from registering as a third-party advertiser if someone who is a affiliated with a political party holds a "significant position" on in the entity.[20]

Electoral system

Alberta's 87 MLAs are elected through single-member contests by plurality, also known as first past the post.

Timeline

2019

2020

2021

  • January 4: Six UCP MLAs are demoted by Jason Kenney for travelling internationally during the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta.[34]
  • March 6: John Roggeveen is appointed interim leader of the Alberta Liberal Party.[35]
  • April 7: 17 UCP MLAs sign an open letter criticizing the Alberta government for reimposing more stringent public health restrictions aimed at combatting COVID-19.[36][37]
  • July 13: Paul Hinman is elected leader of the WIP.[38]
  • August 31: Barry Morishita is acclaimed as leader of the Alberta Party.[39]
  • November 15: 22 UCP constituency associations announce they have passed special motions calling for a review of Jason Kenney's leadership by March 1, 2022.[40]

2022

  • March 24: UCP MLAs Jason Stephan and Peter Guthrie call on Jason Kenney to resign.[41]
  • May 18: Jason Kenney won 51.4% of votes in favour of him staying as leader in a UCP leadership review vote. However, he announced he would resign shortly after the result was revealed.[42]
  • May 19: The UCP caucus meets and decides to keep Jason Kenney as party leader and premier until a successor is chosen.[43]
  • October 6: The results of the 2022 UCP leadership election were announced, with former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith elected leader and therefore the next premier. In her victory speech, she invited former UCP MLA and fellow leadership candidate Todd Loewen back into caucus.[44]
  • October 11: Danielle Smith is sworn in as the 19th premier of Alberta.[45]
  • October 21: Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman is removed as leader by a court decision. Jeevan Mangat is named interim party leader. Hinman is appealing the decision.[46][47]
  • December 8: John Roggeveen is appointed permanent leader of the Alberta Liberal Party.[48][49]

2023

  • May 1: Writs of election issued.[1]
  • May 6: A state of emergency is declared in Alberta due to ongoing wildfires throughout the province.[50]
  • May 18: The Alberta Ethics Commissioner released a report finding UCP leader Danielle Smith violated the Conflict of Interest Act over a conversation with Justice Minister Tyler Shandro regarding a COVID-19 prosecution.[51]
  • May 18: Smith-Notley Debate.[52][53]
  • May 23–27: Advance voting.[1]
  • May 29: Election day.[1]

Changes in MLAs

More information Seat, Before ...

Incumbent MLAs not seeking re-election

In the months leading up to the 2023 Alberta general election, several members of the Legislative Assembly announced they would not seek re-election. This included three members of the Smith ministry including leadership contest runner-up Travis Toews (Minister of Finance and president of Treasury Board),[66] Sonya Savage (Minister of Environment and Protected Areas),[67] and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Trade, Immigration and Multiculturalism). Shortly after Sawhney's decision not to run again, she was nominated by Smith as the United Conservative candidate for Calgary-North West.[68] Other United Conservative members of the Legislative Assembly who decided not to run again included former Ministers in the Kenney ministry: Leela Aheer,[69] Ron Orr,[70] Tracy Allard,[71] and Brad Rutherford;[72] as well as caucus members Mark Smith,[73] Roger Reid,[74] and Richard Gotfried.[75] Dave Hanson, member for Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, lost his nomination contest against former Bonnyville-Cold Lake representative Scott Cyr;[76] and Tany Yao, member for Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, lost his nomination contest to Zulkifl Mujahid, who was subsequently removed by the provincial board and replaced by Yao due to ongoing legal matters.[77]

New Democratic members of the Legislative Assembly deciding not to run in 2023 included members of the Notley ministry, such as Deron Bilous,[78] along with Richard Feehan,[75] as well as caucus member Jon Carson. Chris Nielsen, member for Edmonton-Decore, lost his nomination contest to Sharif Haji.[79] Two independent members of the Legislative Assembly decided not to run in 2023: former New Democrat Thomas Dang,[80] along with former United Conservative Drew Barnes.[81]

More information Retiring incumbent, Electoral district ...
More information Outgoing incumbent, Electoral district ...

Campaign

The election campaign was tense and featured a wide gulf between the two opposing parties, with an increasingly populist UCP facing a left-leaning NDP.[85]

Issues

Healthcare

Following her selection as leader of the United Conservative Party, Danielle Smith made a number of changes to Alberta's healthcare system. Smith fired the Alberta Health Services Board of Governors, replacing the board with a single administrator.[86] In addressing ambulance capacity, the Smith government changed non-medical patient transports, using taxis and other services to open capacity for ambulance crews.[87] Ambulance measures came after it came to light that 9,629 ambulance shifts in Calgary were unfilled in 2022.[87] The United Conservative Party promised to hire more obstetricians and educational support in a focus on women and children, and offered a bonus for healthcare professionals moving to Alberta.[88] During her leadership campaign, Smith advocated for a government funded $300 Health Spending Account for all Albertans to fund services that are not covered by the province, such as dental care;[89][90] however, the promise was not included in the Smith government's 2023-24 budget.[91] Smith's previous advocacy for creating co-payments and shifting the burden of healthcare payments from the government to individuals, employers and insurance companies[92] was criticized by the New Democratic Party.[89]

The New Democratic Party made a number healthcare related campaign promises, including hiring 1,500 healthcare professionals to increase the capacity of family doctors,[93] offering $10,000 signing bonus for healthcare workers and increasing the number of healthcare spaces in post-secondary schools.[88] The New Democratic Party included a pledge to review private health service contracts made by the Jason Kenney's government for private surgical centres and diagnostic laboratories.[94]

Economy

During their campaign, the United Conservative Party pledged to reduce personal income taxes by introducing a new tax bracket for individuals earning below $60,000. This move creating an 8 per cent tax rate would result in a $1 billion reduction in government revenue.[95] As an affordability measure, the United Conservatives proposed extending the fuel tax holiday, previously budgeted until June 2023, to December 2023, at an estimated cost of $570 million.[95] Danielle Smith advocated for a non-refundable tax credit for post-secondary graduates who chose to remain in Alberta. The credit would range from $3,000 to $10,000 and was projected to cost $50 million over a four-year period.[96] The United Conservatives pledged to extend the net-zero transition of the electricity grid, moving the federally mandated timeline of 2035 to 2050.[97] In the lead-up to the election, Danielle Smith announced support for the construction of a $1.2 billion arena in Calgary. The provincial government would contribute $330 million towards the project if re-elected.[98]

The New Democratic Party campaigned on a platform that emphasized no increase in personal income taxes for a four-year period and a freeze on personal insurance rates.[95] Additionally, they made a commitment to implement the recommendations of Todd Hirsch, the former ATB Financial Chief Economist. These recommendations would establish fixed formulas for non-renewable natural resource revenue, debt, and GDP to guide future spending.[95] Rachel Notley, the leader of the New Democratic Party, expressed her support for transitioning the electrical grid to net-zero emissions by 2035.[97] Prior to the election, Notley pledged her support for a $200 million post-secondary campus located in downtown Calgary. The intention behind this pledge was to foster innovation and promote economic diversification in the Calgary core.[99]

Education

During the campaign, both the United Conservative Party and New Democratic Party made a conscious decision to steer clear of controversial education-related issues, such as proposed changes to the provincial curriculum and expansion of charter school funding. University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young noted the parties avoided these topics in an effort to avoid alienating undecided voters.[100]

Prior to the election, the United Conservative government of Jason Kenney had an education policy favouring charter schools,[101] and undergoing a curriculum review, which was criticized by the Alberta Teachers' Association.[102] The New Democratic Party committed to increasing funding for public education by $700 million over a four years. The funding would hire 4,000 teachers and 3,000 support workers in an effort to reduce class sizes.[103]

Public safety

In an effort to enhance confidence in public safety, Danielle Smith promised to implement an ankle bracelet monitoring program to supervise violent offenders who were released on bail. This program was estimated to cost $2 million annually.[104] Additionally, the United Conservative Party pledged to hire 100 additional police officers in Calgary and Edmonton.[104] They also proposed deploying Alberta Sheriffs to the border to combat drug and gun trafficking and to increase funding for specialized law enforcement teams.[104] Prior to the start of the election, Danielle Smith said that she would not campaign on the previous United Conservative promise to replace the Royal Canadian Mounted Police with the Alberta Provincial Police. She indicated that the issue would be revisited if the United Conservatives were re-elected.[105]

The New Democratic Party pledged to strengthen law enforcement by hiring an additional 150 police officers and 150 support staff, including social workers and addiction counselors.[106] They proposed funding this initiative by reversing the changes implemented by the United Conservative Party in 2019 which increased the provincial share of police fine revenue from 26.7 per cent to 40 per cent.[106] Furthermore, the New Democrats committed to canceling the United Conservative Party's efforts to replace the Royal Canadian Mounted Police with a provincial police force.[106]

Debates

On May 18, a televised debate took place between Smith and Notley.[52][53]

Endorsements

More information Type, UCP ...

Opinion polling

The following is a list of published opinion polls of voter intentions.

More information Opinion polls during campaign period, Pollster ...
More information Opinion polling before campaign period began, Pollster ...

Regional polls

More information Opinion polls in Calgary, Pollster ...

Candidates

Candidates who are ran were as follows:[121]

Party leaders are in bold. Candidate names appear as they appeared on the ballot.

† = Not seeking re-election
‡ = Running for re-election in different riding § = Represents that the incumbent lost that party's nomination

Northern Alberta

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Edmonton

Central

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

North

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

South

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Suburbs

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Central Alberta

West

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

East

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Calgary

Central

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

East

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Northwest

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

South

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Suburbs

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Southern Alberta

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...

Results

Main article: Results of the 2023 Alberta general election

The United Conservative Party was re-elected to majority government, receiving both majority of votes cast and majority of the seats in the Alberta Legislative Assembly.[122][123] The Alberta NDP received the highest share of the vote in its history and elected its second-best-ever number of MLAs. The race was noteworthy both as one of the fiercest two-way battles in the last hundred years[85] in Canadian history and by its results — electing only two parties in the Legislature, unusually producing a second back-to-back two-party legislature.

The UCP swept nearly all ridings outside of Calgary and Edmonton: the NDP won only four seats outside of either city, with two being suburban seats located in Metro Edmonton (St. Albert and Sherwood Park), one seat in Lethbridge (Lethbridge-West) and a single rural seat surrounding Banff National Park (Banff-Kananaskis). Conversely, the NDP made a clean one-party sweep of Edmonton's 20 seats. The parties ran nearly evenly in Calgary: the NDP won 14 seats to the UCP's 12, with several seats decided by very narrow margins.

The Liberal Party got its lowest vote record in its history with just 0.24%.

The elections set two firsts — the first election in Alberta of a Black woman and an Indigenous woman. These were Rhiannon Hoyle in Edmonton-South and Jodi Callahoo-Stonehouse in Edmonton Rutherford, respectively.[124]

Legislature summary

Main article: 31st Alberta Legislature
More information Party, Votes ...
More information Party, Leader ...

Synopsis of results

More information Riding, Winning party ...
  1. [a 1]
    "Provincial Results". officialresults.elections.ab.ca. Elections Alberta. Archived from the original on June 15, 2023. Retrieved June 30, 2023.
  2. [a 2]
    initially sorted by electoral district number
  3. [a 3]
    including spoilt ballots
  4. [a 4]
    minor political parties (those other than the top six) are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
  = results as certified in a judicial recount
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected
  = incumbent failed to get renominated
  = candidate disqualified from seeking UCP nomination[127]

Detailed analysis

More information Party, 1st ...
More information Source, Party ...

Seats that changed hands

MLAs who lost their seats

More information Constituency, Party ...

Open seats changing hands

More information Riding, Party ...

Notes

  1. Includes Jennifer Johnson, who appeared on the ballot as a UCP candidate but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. She will not be seated as a member of the UCP caucus.
  2. Dang was elected in the 2019 election as an NDP candidate but later became an Independent MLA.
  3. Barnes was elected in the 2019 election as a UCP candidate but later became an Independent MLA.
  4. Johnson will not caucus with the UCP due to her comments on trans youth.
  5. Though Sawhney initially declared that she would not seek re-election in her own riding of Calgary-North East, she was later appointed the UCP candidate in Calgary-North West.
  6. Yao originally lost the UCP nomination to Zulkifl Mujahid in December 2022; after Mujahid was disqualified in April 2023, Yao was appointed the UCP candidate in his place.

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See also

Footnotes

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