44th Canadian federal election


The 44th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[2] Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or at the recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.[3][4][5]

44th Canadian federal election

 2019 On or before October 16, 2023 (2023-10-16) 45th 

338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Current seats 155 119 32
Seats needed 15 51 N/A[lower-alpha 1]

 
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul
Party New Democratic Green
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020
Leader's seat Burnaby South (Running in Toronto Centre)[1]
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55%
Current seats 24 2
Seats needed 146 168

Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal


Background


The 2019 federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing their majority but winning the most seats. The Conservatives continued as the Official Opposition with Andrew Scheer temporarily remaining as Leader of the Opposition until announcing his resignation, triggering a leadership election.[6][7] The Bloc Québécois became the third party. The New Democrats lost seats but maintained official party status and, although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs—twelve—for official party status.

All leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the next session of Parliament.[8][9][10] However, Elizabeth May said that she may not lead the Greens into the 44th election, and she ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[11][12] On November 6, 2019, the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader. His leadership would still have been reviewed during the party's April 2020 convention[13][14] However, on December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[15] He stayed on until his successor, Erin O'Toole, was chosen and remains as the MP for ReginaQu'Appelle.[16][17]

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MPs have announced that they would not be running in the next federal election:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Navdeep Bains[18] Mississauga—Malton Ontario January 12, 2021
  Lyne Bessette[19] Brome—Missisquoi Quebec July 16, 2021
  Bob Bratina[20] Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario May 17, 2021
  Wayne Easter[21] Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14, 2021
  Pat Finnigan[22] Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14, 2021
  Paul Lefebvre[23] Sudbury Ontario March 12, 2021
  Catherine McKenna[24] Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27, 2021
  Geoff Regan[25] Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31, 2021
  Kate Young[26] London West Ontario March 18, 2021
  Steven Blaney[27] Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Quebec July 14, 2021
  Peter Kent[28][29] Thornhill Ontario November 19, 2020
  Tom Lukiwski[30] Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26, 2021
  Phil McColeman[31][32] Brantford—Brant Ontario December 30, 2020
  Cathy McLeod[33][34] Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo British Columbia February 4, 2021
  Bruce Stanton[35] Simcoe North Ontario June 25, 2020
  David Sweet[36] Flamborough—Glanbrook Ontario January 4, 2021
  Louise Charbonneau[37] Trois-Rivières Quebec January 14, 2021
  Simon Marcil[37] Mirabel Quebec January 14, 2021
  Scott Duvall[38][39] Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5, 2021
  Jack Harris[40][41] St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11, 2021
  Mumilaaq Qaqqaq[42] Nunavut Nunavut May 20, 2021
  Jody Wilson-Raybould[43] Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8, 2021

Current standings


e  d Summary of the current standings of the House of Commons of Canada
Party Party leader Seats
2019 Current
Liberal Justin Trudeau 157 155
Conservative Erin O'Toole 121 119
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 32 32
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 24 24
Green Annamie Paul 3 2
  Independent 1 5
  Vacant 1
Total 338 338

Timeline


Changes in seats held (2020–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler June 6, 2020[44] Marwan Tabbara  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1]  Independent
Toronto Centre August 17, 2020[45] Bill Morneau  Liberal Resigned[a 2] October 26, 2020 Marci Ien  Liberal
York Centre September 1, 2020[46] Michael Levitt  Liberal Resigned[a 3] October 26, 2020 Ya'ara Saks  Liberal
Don Valley East November 9, 2020[47] Yasmin Ratansi  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 4]  Independent
Hastings—Lennox and Addington January 20, 2021[48][49] Derek Sloan  Conservative Expelled from caucus [a 5]  Independent
Brampton Centre January 25, 2021[50][51] Ramesh Sangha  Liberal Removed from caucus [a 6]  Independent
Haldimand—Norfolk May 11, 2021[52] Diane Finley  Conservative Resigned  Vacant
Fredericton June 10, 2021[53] Jenica Atwin  Green Changed affiliation  Liberal
  1. laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament
  2. to pursue leadership of OECD
  3. to become a non-profit executive
  4. revelation of nepotism in staff hiring
  5. accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm
  6. made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement

2019

2020

2021

2023

  • October 16, 2023: Latest possible date for the 44th Canadian federal election, as determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.

Candidates


Leaders' debates


In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[74][75] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates every future election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[74][75]

Opinion polls


Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes


  1. Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus they currently cannot gain a majority in parliament.

References


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