Bulgarian_euro_coins

Bulgaria and the euro

Bulgaria and the euro

Process of Bulgaria adopting the Euro

Bulgaria plans to adopt the euro and become the 21st member state of the eurozone. The Bulgarian lev has been on the currency board since 1997 through a fixed exchange rate of the lev against the Deutsche Mark and the euro. Bulgaria's target date for introduction of the euro is 1 January 2025, which would make the euro only the second national currency of the country since the lev was introduced over 140 years ago. The official exchange rate is 1.95583 lev for 1 euro.

Eurozone participation
European Union member states
(special territories not shown)
  20 in the eurozone
  1 in ERM II, without an opt-out (Bulgaria)
  1 in ERM II, with an opt-out (Denmark)
  5 not in ERM II, but obliged to join the eurozone on meeting the convergence criteria (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden)
Non–EU member states
  4 using the euro with a monetary agreement (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City)
  2 using the euro unilaterally (Kosovo and Montenegro)

Convergence criteria

When it joined the European Union in 2007, Bulgaria committed to switching its currency, the lev, to the euro, as stated in the 2005 EU accession treaty. The transition will occur once the country meets all the euro convergence criteria; it currently meets three of the five. As the lev was fixed to the Deutsche Mark at par, the lev's peg effectively switched to the euro on 1 January 1999, at the rate of 1.95583 leva = 1 euro, which was the Deutsche Mark's fixed exchange rate to the euro.[1]

Before the Bulgarian euro coins had been designed the Madara Rider had already been selected as the motif on the obverse ("national" side) of the coins. Bulgaria officially joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) on 10 July 2020.[2][3] Bulgarian government and central bank officials adopted a draft national plan for euro adoption on 30 June 2021,[4] after stating that same day Bulgaria's intention to adopt the euro on 1 January 2024.[5] In May 2022, the government adopted a more definitive version of its euro introduction plan, reaffirming the country's commitment to adopt the euro on the target date.[6] On 21 February 2023, Bulgaria scrapped the idea of adopting the single currency on 1 January 2024 due to an internal political crisis.[7]

The Maastricht Treaty, which Bulgaria acceded to by way of its EU accession treaty, requires that all European Union member states join the euro once certain economic criteria are met.

In November 2007, Bulgarian Finance Minister Plamen Oresharski had stated that his goal was to comply with all five convergence criteria by 2009 and adopt the euro in 2012.[8] But Bulgaria did not comply with the requirement to be an ERM II member for at least two years, nor did it satisfy the price stability criterion in 2008. Bulgaria's inflation in the 12 months from April 2007 to March 2008 reached 9.4%, well above the reference value limit of 3.2%.

However, Bulgaria fulfilled the state budget criterion of only having a maximum deficit of 3% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). The country had posted surpluses since 2003, which in 2007 represented 3.4% of its GDP (at the time, the EC forecast that it would remain at 3.2% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009). Bulgaria also complied with the public debt criteria. During the prior decade, the Bulgarian debt had declined from 50% of GDP to 18% in 2007, and was expected to reach 11% in 2009.[9] Finally, the average for the long-term interest rate during the prior year was 4.7% in March 2008, well within the reference limit of 6.5%.[10]

A 2008 analysis said that Bulgaria would not be able to join the eurozone earlier than 2015 due to the high inflation and the repercussions of the 2007–2008 global financial crisis.[11] Some members of Bulgarian government, notably economy minister Petar Dimitrov, speculated about unilaterally introducing the euro, which was not well-met by the European Commission.[12]

Bulgaria met three out of the five criteria in the last convergence report published by the European Central Bank in June 2022.

Joining ERM II

The Bulgarian lev has been pegged to the euro since the latter was launched in 1999, at a fixed rate of €1 = BGN 1.95583, through a strictly managed currency board. Prior to that, the lev was pegged on par to the German Mark. While the currency board which pegs Bulgaria to the euro has been seen as beneficial to the country fulfilling criteria so quickly,[13] the ECB has pressured Bulgaria to drop it as it did not know how to let a country using a currency board join the euro. The Bulgarian Prime Minister has stated the desire to keep the currency board until the euro was adopted. However, factors such as a high inflation, an unrealistic exchange rate with the euro and the country's low productivity are negatively affected by the system.[14]

Simeon Dyankov, Bulgaria's then-finance minister, said in September 2009 that Bulgaria planned to enter ERM II in November,[15][16][17] but this was delayed. It was then delayed further due to an increased budget deficit, outside the Maastricht criteria.[18][19] Since 2011, Bulgaria's non-membership of the ERM II has been the primary factor that prevented euro membership, as Bulgaria met the other criteria for euro adoption. In July 2011, Dyankov stated that the government would not adopt the euro as long as the European sovereign-debt crisis was ongoing.[20][21][22] In 2011, Bulgaria's Minister of Finance Simeon Djankov stated that adoption of the euro would be postponed until the end of the eurozone crisis.[20]

In January 2015, then-Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov (under Prime Minister Boyko Borisov) changed approaches and said that it was possible for Bulgaria to join ERM II before the end of 2018. Goranov said he would immediately begin talks with the Eurogroup to establish a plan for joining ERM II.[23] In July 2015, the Bulgarian government established a coordination council to prepare the country for eurozone membership.[24] The coordination council was to draft a plan for the introduction of the euro, propose a target date, and organise the preparation and coordination of the expert working groups.[25]

This approach was supported by former Bulgarian National Bank governor Kolyo Paramov, who had been in office when the state currency board was established. Paramov argued that adoption would "trigger a number of positive economic effects":

  • Sufficient money supply (leading to increased lending, which is needed to improve economic growth)[26]
  • Getting rid of the currency board that prevents the national bank from functioning as a lender of last resort to rescue banks in financial trouble[26]
  • Private and public lending benefiting from lower interest rates (at least half as high)[26]

Former Bulgarian National Bank deputy governor Emil Harsev agreed with Paramov, stating that it was possible to adopt the euro in 2018 and that "Bulgaria's membership in the eurozone will bring only positive effect on the economy" because "since [the establishment of] the currency board in 1997, we have been accepting all the negative effects of accession into the eurozone without getting the positive ones (access to the European financial market)".[27]

Following the reelection of Borisov's government in 2017, he declared his intention apply to join ERM II,[28] but Goranov elaborated that the government would only seek to join once the eurozone states were ready to approve the application, and that he expected to have clarity on the matter by the end of 2017.[29] On taking the presidency of the EU Council in January 2018, Borisov indicated no clarification had been given but announced he was going to pursue applications for both ERM II and Schengen by July 2018 regardless.[30][31][32][33] Bulgaria sent a letter to the Eurogroup in July 2018 expressing its desire to join ERM II and committing to enter into a "close cooperation" agreement with the European banking union.[34][35]

In January 2019, Goranov said he hoped that Bulgaria could join the ERM II mechanism in July and introduce the euro on 1 January 2022.[36] However, the first deadline was pushed back to July 2019 due to extra conditions requested by eurozone governments, namely that Bulgaria:[37]

While the CVM reforms are mentioned, and progress in judicial reform and organised crime is expected, leaving the CVM is not a precondition.[37]

As of October 2019, Goranov's target was to enter the ERM II by April 2020.[38] In January 2020, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that it was possible for Bulgaria to join ERM II later in 2020 and adopt the euro in 2023.[39] Borisov stated in February 2020 that Bulgaria's application would be reviewed in July.[40] In March, the Bulgarian central bank said that this target was no longer realistic due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.[41] However, in April Borisov stated that he would push forward the application by the end of April.[42] The reason he gave for this U-turn was the 500 billion euros rescue package to deal with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, which the finance ministers of the Eurogroup had agreed upon on 10 April.[43] On 24 April, Fitch Ratings announced that they would probably upgrade Bulgaria's foreign currency issuer default ratings (IDR) between Bulgaria's accession to ERM II and euro adoption:

"… Given that the COVID-19 pandemic response is taking up significant resources with regard to political engagement at the EU-wide level, facilitating the Bulgarian lev's ERM2 accession may decline as a relative priority for European institutions. If concerns about risks ease and the process resumes, this would be supportive of the rating, as underlined by our view that all things being equal, we would upgrade Bulgaria's Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR by two notches between admission to the ERM II and joining the euro."[44]

On 30 April 2020, Bulgaria officially submitted documents to the European Central Bank to apply to join ERM II, the first step to introducing the euro.[45] On 12 May, European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis stated that Bulgaria could join ERM II together with Croatia in July,[46] which both countries did on 10 July.[2][47]

As per the ECB decision adopted on 24 June 2020, Bulgaria and its national bank became member of the European banking union via a close cooperation agreement entering into force on 1 October 2020.[48][49]

Joining the eurozone

Bulgaria is in the process of joining the eurozone. In February 2023, Finance Minister Rositsa Velkova announced that Bulgaria's target date for entry into the eurozone would be delayed from 1 January 2024 to 1 January 2025, primarily due to the projected inflation not meeting the inflation criterion in time.[50][51] In April 2023, enough signatures had been collected to put the entry to a referendum.[52] However, in June 2023 the referendum was rejected by Bulgaria's parliament with 98 votes against, 46 abstentions and 68 votes in favour.[53][54] On 26 July 2023, the newly formed Bulgarian government adopted a programme which stated that the switch to the euro in January 2025 is one of the main government priorities. [55] In November 2023, the Bulgarian euro coin design was revealed and approved by the Bulgarian National Bank.[56]

In order to ensure full compliance with the legal criteria for euro adoption, the Bulgarian Parliament approved the necessary legislation on the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) on 1 February 2024.[57][58] However, according to the assessment of the President of BNB, Dimitar Radev, the recently adopted constitutional revision (making it possible for the President or Vice President of BNB to be appointed as a temporary caretaker Prime Minister in case of failed attempts to form regular governments), and the recently adopted revision to the law on the BNB (making it possible for such a caretaker Prime Minister to resume his work and role at BNB after having completed his tenure as temporary caretaker Prime Minister), were both unlikely to meet ECB's convergence criteria for legal compliance. The ECB was not consulted on this specific change to the Bulgarian law, but were expected to reveal its assessment on this potential issue in its upcoming convergence report scheduled for publication in June 2024.[59]

On 20 January 2024, Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov said in an interview that Bulgaria might be forced to delay its adoption of the euro to 1 July 2025 if the inflation criterion is not met in time, although the current target date of 1 January 2025 remains unchanged.[60][61] Finance Minister Asen Vasilev believed Bulgaria was on track for euro adoption at some point in time in 2025, as the last inflation criteria was projected to be met between June and September 2024,[62] and the revised Bulgarian euro adoption law was expected to be approved by the ECB shortly.[63]

The euro adoption law was launched for public consultation from 25 March to 24 April,[64] and subsequently will be subject to approval by the Bulgarian Parliament; the European Commission - although not yet ECB - had already approved the published version as of 26 March.[65] An information website (www.evroto.bg), dedicated to communicate the progress towards introduction of the euro in Bulgaria and practicalities of the euro changeover, was also launched on 25 March.[66]

In June 2024, the ECB is expected to release their next regular compliance assessment to check whether Bulgaria meets all criteria, which in the affirmative case would allow the country to adopt the euro on 1 January 2025.[67][62] If the regular assessment in the opposite case concludes that Bulgaria is still not compliant, then it is still possible for Bulgaria to request a new reassessment as of any subsequent month;[62][68][69][70] which Finance Minister Asen Vasilev stated he would do in order to ensure euro adoption would only be delayed a few months (either to 1 March or 1 July 2025).[71]

After a planned government rotation and negotiations for a renewed government mandate for the next nine months failed,[72][73][74] and subsequent attempts to form a new government among the elected parties was likewise unsuccessful, the Bulgarian President Rumen Radev announced that he would appoint a new caretaker Prime Minister and caretaker government tasked with organizing an early election in June 2024.[75] Analysts had warned that snap elections could risk delaying efforts for Bulgaria to adopt the euro in 2025.[76][77] However, outgoing Finance Minister Asen Vasilev stated that preparations were so far advanced that at the current stage a caretaker government could ensure eurozone entry in 2025.[78] The incoming caretaker Prime Minister, Dimitar Glavchev, stated that the incoming caretaker government would continue to focus on achieving membership of the eurozone and "Schengen on land" among its priorities.[79]

Status

More information Assessment month, Country ...
  Criterion fulfilled
  Criterion potentially fulfilled: If the budget deficit exceeds the 3% limit, but is "close" to this value (the European Commission has deemed 3.5% to be close by in the past),[108] then the criteria can still potentially be fulfilled if either the deficits in the previous two years are significantly declining towards the 3% limit, or if the excessive deficit is the result of exceptional circumstances which are temporary in nature (i.e. one-off expenditures triggered by a significant economic downturn, or by the implementation of economic reforms that are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the government's future fiscal budgets). However, even if such "special circumstances" are found to exist, additional criteria must also be met to comply with the fiscal budget criterion.[109][110] Additionally, if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% but is "sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace" it can be deemed to be in compliance.[110]
  Criterion not fulfilled
Notes
  1. [N 1]
    The rate of increase of the 12-month average HICP over the prior 12-month average must be no more than 1.5% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the similar HICP inflation rates in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these 3 states have a HICP rate significantly below the similarly averaged HICP rate for the eurozone (which according to ECB practice means more than 2% below), and if this low HICP rate has been primarily caused by exceptional circumstances (i.e. severe wage cuts or a strong recession), then such a state is not included in the calculation of the reference value and is replaced by the EU state with the fourth lowest HICP rate.
  2. [N 2]
    The arithmetic average of the annual yield of 10-year government bonds as of the end of the past 12 months must be no more than 2.0% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the bond yields in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these states have bond yields which are significantly larger than the similarly averaged yield for the eurozone (which according to previous ECB reports means more than 2% above) and at the same time does not have complete funding access to financial markets (which is the case for as long as a government receives bailout funds), then such a state is not be included in the calculation of the reference value.
  3. [N 3]
    The change in the annual average exchange rate against the euro.
  4. [N 4]
    Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2012.[88]
  5. [N 5]
    Sweden, Ireland and Slovenia were the reference states.[88]
  6. [N 6]
    The maximum allowed change in rate is ± 2.25% for Denmark.
  7. [N 7]
    Sweden and Slovenia were the reference states, with Ireland excluded as an outlier.[88]
  8. [N 8]
    Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2013.[91]
  9. [N 9]
    Sweden, Latvia and Ireland were the reference states.[91]
  10. [N 10]
    Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2014.[94]
  11. [N 11]
    Latvia, Portugal and Ireland were the reference states, with Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus excluded as outliers.[94]
  12. [N 12]
    Latvia, Ireland and Portugal were the reference states.[94]
  13. [N 13]
    Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2016.[97]
  14. [N 14]
    Bulgaria, Slovenia and Spain were the reference states, with Cyprus and Romania excluded as outliers.[97]
  15. [N 15]
    Slovenia, Spain and Bulgaria were the reference states.[97]
  16. [N 16]
    Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2018.[100]
  17. [N 17]
    Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states.[100]
  18. [N 18]
    Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states.[100]
  19. [N 19]
    Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2020.[103]
  20. [N 20]
    Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states.[103]
  21. [N 21]
    Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states.[103]
  22. [N 22]
    Reference values from the Convergence Report of June 2022.[106]
  23. [N 23]
    France, Finland, and Greece were the reference states.[106]

Advantages of euro adoption

Because the lev is pegged to the euro at a fixed exchange rate, it can be argued that Bulgaria is already a de facto member of the eurozone insofar as it cannot pursue an independent monetary policy and is bound by the monetary policy and interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank, without having a say. Adopting the euro and thereby becoming a de jure member of the eurozone would enhance Bulgaria's position by giving it a voice in the ECB.[43]

Moreover, the fact that the lev is pegged to the euro at a fixed exchange rate also means that Bulgaria cannot devalue its currency in order to make its exports more competitive. Therefore, Bulgaria would not lose anything in this regard by adopting the euro.[43]

Other advantages of adopting the euro include the improved supervision of Bulgaria's systemically important banks once it has joined ERM II together with the European banking union, and the decreased cost of borrowing and full access to the eurozone's COVID-19 pandemic rescue packages.[43]

Selecting the design

The 10, 20 and 50 euro cents national side design
The 1 euro national side design
The 2 euro national side design

Bulgarian euro coins will replace the lev once the convergence criteria are fulfilled. On the occasion of the signing of the EU accession treaty on 25 April 2005, the Bulgarian National Bank issued a commemorative coin with a face value of 1.95583 leva, giving it a nominal value of exactly 1 euro.[111][112]

The Madara Rider was one of the favourites to become the symbol of Bulgaria to be used on the "national" (obverse) side of the country's euro coins. Other eminent contenders to be the 'symbol of Bulgaria' were ancient traditional nestinars (Bulgarian fire dancers), Cyrillic script,[113] the Rila Monastery[114] and the Tsarevets medieval fortress near Veliko Turnovo.[114]

On 17 June 2008, debates on the design of future Bulgarian euro coins were held all over the country, continuing until 29 June when a vote was held on the symbol to be used on all coins. Bulgarians voted in post offices, fuel stations and schools.[115][116] That same day, the winner was announced: a plurality of voters, 25.44%, had chosen the Madara Rider to be depicted on future euro coins.[117][118][119][120]

On 24 July 2023,[121] in an interview before the BTA, the governor of the BNB - Dimitar Radev announced that at a meeting of the BNB Governing Council it was decided that the Bulgarian national side of the euro coins would be identical to that of the lev coins, namely:

- on the coins of 1 euro cent, 2 euro cents, 5 euro cents, 10 euro cents, 20 euro cents and 50 euro cents, the Madara horseman should be depicted, as well as the Cyrillic inscription "стотинка" ("Stotinka", i.e. the Bulgarian denomination of the Bulgarian coins);

- on the 1 euro coin - Saint Ivan Rilski, together with the Cyrillic inscription "евро" ("Euro");

- on the 2-euro coin - Saint Paisius of Hilendar - with the Cyrillic inscription "евро" ("Euro"), albeit without reference to his sanctitude;

- on each of the coins there will be an inscription in Cyrillic "Bulgaria";

- the 2-euro band will be written in Cyrillic ("БОЖЕ ПАЗИ БЪЛГАРИЯ") ("God, Protect Bulgaria!") - thus, according to the manager of Bulgarian Bank, the Bulgarian monetary tradition (dating back to the 13th century) will be respected in the coinage

The Bulgarian Cyrillic alphabet and the preservation of the "stotinka" (in the form of Bulgarian eurocents) will bring the new currency closer to the old Bulgarian lev.

The design of the euro coins was chosen by the Bulgarian National Bank in November 2023,[122] and approved by the Council of the EU in February 2024.[57] Minting of the coins in necessary quantities will begin shortly after the Council of the EU approve Bulgaria to adopt the euro, so that they can be circulated starting from the date of euro introduction in Bulgaria.[57]

More information €0.01, €0.02 ...

Linguistic issues

The 10 euro note from the new Europa series is written in the Latin (EURO) and Greek (ΕΥΡΩ) alphabets, but also in the Cyrillic (ЕВРО) alphabet, as a result of Bulgaria joining the European Union in 2007.

Bulgarian Cyrillic script and its non-straightforward transliteration of the word euro initially caused issues when the European Central Bank and European Commission insisted that Bulgaria adopt the name ЕУРО (i.e., euro), rather than the original ЕВРО (i.e., evro) Bulgarian pronunciation: [ˈɛvro] (from Bulgarian Европа [ɛvˈrɔpɐ], meaning Europe), arguing that the currency's name should be standardised across the EU as much as possible. Bulgaria maintained that its language's alphabet and phonetic orthography warranted the exception.[123] At the 2007 EU Summit in Lisbon, the issue was decided in Bulgaria's favour, making евро the official Cyrillic spelling from 13 December 2007.[124][125]

This ruling affected the design of euro banknotes. The second series of notes (beginning with the €5 note issued from 2013) includes the term "ЕВРО" and the abbreviation "ЕЦБ" (short for Европейска централна банка, the Bulgarian name of the European Central Bank).[126] The first series only had the standard Latin alphabet "EURO" and Greek "ΕΥΡΩ".

Because euro coins only have the Latin "EURO" on their common (reverse) side, Greek coins include the Greek spelling on the national (obverse) side. Bulgarian coins may follow suit, with "EURO" on one side and "ЕВРО" on the other.

The plural of евро in Bulgarian varies in spoken language – евро, евра [ɛvˈra], еврота [ˈɛvrotɐ] – but the most widespread form is евро – without inflection in plural form. The word for euro, though, has a normal form with the postpositive definite article – еврото ([ˈɛvroto], the euro).

The Bulgarian word for eurocent is евроцент [ˈɛvrot͡sɛnt] and it is likely to be that or цент [ˈt͡sɛnt] that is used when the European currency is introduced in Bulgaria. In contrast to euro, the word for "cent" has a full inflection in both the definite and the plural form: евроцент (basic form), евроцентът (full definite article – postpositive), евроцентове (plural) and 2 евроцента (numerative form – after numerals). However, the name of the Bulgarian lev subunit, stotinki (стотинки), and the singular stotinka (стотинка), could be used in place of cent, as it has become a synonym of the word "coins" in colloquial Bulgarian. Just like "cent" (from Latin centum), its etymology is from a word meaning hundred – sto (сто). Stotinki is used widely in the Bulgarian diaspora in Europe to refer to subunits of currencies other than the Bulgarian lev.[citation needed]

Public opinion

Public support for the euro in Bulgaria

The following are polls on the question of whether the Republic of Bulgaria should abolish the lev and adopt the euro.

More information Date (survey taken), Date (survey published) ...

See also

References

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