Temperature and weather changes

Egypt's climate is hot, dry, and dominated by desert. Egypt has a hot summer from May to October and a mild winter from November to April. In the desert, summer temperatures can range from a high of 43°C (109°F) during the day to 7°C (45°F) at night and winter temperatures range from 18°C (64°F) to 0°C (32°F). The coast is more mild with temperatures ranging from a high of 30°C (86°F) in the winter to a low of 14°C (57°F)  in the winter.^[7]

From the years of 2000-2020, average temperature in Egypt increased by 0.38 degrees celsius per decade, a temperature increase that is higher than the world average.^[8] The projected future warming rates in the MENA region range between 0.2°C per decade and 0.5°C per decade. In addition, the magnitude and duration of heat waves is expected to increase.^[9] Extreme temperatures are expected to be especially prevalent in specific locations in Egypt, such as South Sinai and Aswan.^[10]

Egypt has been ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change but only 63rd for being most prepared for climate change.^[11] Egypt's increase in average temperature over the past two decades has resulted in an increase in energy needs for cooling, which will only continue to increase with further warming in the coming decades. Increasing temperatures also contribute to increasing desertification, increased drying of the Nile River, decreasing precipitation, rising sea levels, and increasing flash floods.^[8][11]

Agriculture

Even without the impacts of climate change, Egypt's arid climate makes it vulnerable for water scarcity and food scarcity. Most of Egypt does not receive much rain, thus all of its agricultural production is around the Nile River. The population of Egypt is increasing, therefore the country will require more food and water.^[12][13][14] Agriculture is important to the Egyptian economy, making up 11.3% of the GDP and providing 28% of jobs.^[15] However, climate change is creating challenges for the agricultural sector. One concern is decreasing crop production. Due to heat stress, water stress, and salinity, food crop yields are projected to decline by 10% by 2050.^[16] The crops with the largest yield declines are expected to be maize, oilseeds, sugarcrops and fruits and vegetables.

Egypt is dependent on global markets for wheat imports and food security.^[16] Egypt consumes 20.5 million tonnes of wheat a year, half of which is produced domestically with the remaining half supplied from imports.^[17] However, wheat yields in Egypt are expected to reduce nearly 20% by 2060.^[18] Other impacts of climate change on agriculture include reduced water availability, increased pests and diseases, and a shorter growing period in some places.^[19] Prices for imported food will increase as a result of climate change due to global declines in crop production.^[16] Hotter temperatures and increased drought will also impact livestock, including cows and chickens. Heat and water stress reduces milk yield and quality, egg yield, and animals’ reproductive capacity. Given increases in the human populations and decreases in milk production, models predict that milk availability will decrease by 40 kg per person by 2064.^[20] Together, these climate change impacts on agriculture will threaten food security in Egypt.

Water scarcity

A growing population and increasing use of water for irrigation in the agricultural sector have put a strain on Egypt's water supply. Egypt currently has an annual water deficit of about 7 billion cubic meters.^[23] Higher temperatures are straining water supply further.^[12] Water scarcity will not only decrease the amount of drinking water, but also have negative impacts on the economy, agricultural sector, child mortality rates, and overall public health. As temperatures increase due to climate change, crops will require more water, leading to more strain on the water supply.^[21] Increased evaporation will shorten the length of the growing season, which may further reduce the food supply. The decrease in the food supply is projected to increase the cost of food which will raise the rates of food insecurity across Egypt, a country in which 30% of its citizens live under the poverty line.^[12][11][24]

Sea level rise

Egypt's northern border lies along the Mediterranean coast which will experience sea level rise. In Egypt, 39% of installed gas and 7% of oil power plant capacity are in low-elevation areas that are vulnerable to this threat.^[8] Alexandria, the second largest city in Egypt with a population of 5 million people, and the Nile Delta region are among the most vulnerable areas to climate change in the world. Global sea levels are predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the UN to rise as much as 68cm by 2050. In this region, this extent of sea level rise is likely to cause flooding in sections of Alexandria, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, salinization in farmland, and ultimately, displacement of people and the loss of livelihoods.^[25]

Ecosystems

While water resources can be protected through mitigating measures in many circumstances, this is not the case of the Nile River and its deltas.^[26] Lake Burullus is the second largest shallow lagoon connected to the Nile Delta and has been a nationally protected area since 1998. It is located between the Damietta and Rosetta branches of the Nile and used to receive large quantities of agricultural drainage water. Climate change is expected to increase the temperature and salinity of Lake Burullus, threatening the ecosystem.^[27] Other lake ecosystems throughout Egypt are also negatively affected by climate change. Lake Qarun and Lake Manzallah have experienced higher levels of water evaporation and increases in salinity. Climate change has also caused changes in the chemical properties of the rivers, making them more vulnerable to invasive species such as the red swamp crayfish. This crayfish thrives in the changed ecosystem of the rivers and is harmful to native species.^[26]

Economic impacts

Climate change will have severe negative impacts on Egypt’s economy.^[16] In the agriculture sector, climate change will impact the country's domestic food supply as well as agricultural exports. Domestic food crop yields are projected to decline by 10% by 2050.^[16] Compounding the issue, global reductions of crop yields are projected to increase world food prices and these higher prices are projected to affect demand for Egypt's exports. For example, fruit and vegetable exports are expected to decline by 4.6 million mt.^[16] Climate change will also affect other sections of the economy, including Egypt’s ceramic industry, which is the largest in continental Africa. Ceramics are a clay based industry and sensitive to climate-related extreme events and droughts due to raw materials used.^[28] Changing weather patterns and flooding are disrupting the production of ceramics.

Tourism

Tourism accounts for 10-15% of Egypt’s economy.^[29] Since tourism is influenced by weather conditions and the environment, climate change is going to have a significant impact on tourism.^[30] The number of tourists visiting Egypt is projected to decline about 20% by 2060.^[31] Coastal tourism is especially dependent on the environment, and thus will be greatly affected by climate change. Sea level rise as a result of climate change is expected to reduce the amount of beaches, damage coastal infrastructure, and reduce the appeal of tourist destinations.^[32] Temperatures may also increase to an extent that will be unsuitable for vacationers.^[32]

Health

Children will be profoundly impacted by climate change despite contributing to it the least. By 2050, child mortality in Egypt is projected to increase by around 2.3%, even if the Paris Agreement target of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C is met.^[33] In higher warming scenarios, child mortality is expected to increase even more. Extreme weather events and floods can damage crucial infrastructure, such as water and sanitation. Lack of access to clean water can lead to many diseases that put children particularly at risk, including cholera.^[34] Children are also more vulnerable than adults to toxic substances, such as lead and other pollutants, that can be found in untreated water.^[23] Heat stress and increased particulate matter concentrations will also have negative health impacts, and may result in about 2,000-5,000 more deaths a year.^[35]

Housing

It is expected that nearly 6 million Egyptian people will be displaced due to flooding as a result of sea level rise. In a one-meter sea level rise scenario, 7 cities and 30 towns will be affected and 35,500 acres of urban land and 920,000 acres of agricultural land will be at risk for flooding.^[36]

Adaptation

Egypt launched a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in 2011. NAP aims to reduce vulnerability to climate change by equipping the government with information on climate risks and support adaptation planning.^[38] Current initiatives are managed under the National Climate Change Strategy 2050 (NCCS) that was created in 2022 as a reference document that consolidates all aspects of climate change.^[39] The five priorities listed in the document are sustainable economic growth, improving resilience to climate change, enhancing climate action governance, enhancing climate financing infrastructure, and enhancing research, technology, and awareness.^[39] For the implementation of climate adaptation plans, the government has financial support from SCALA and the Green Climate Fund (GCF).^[40] Also, USAID provides assistance programs that support small businesses, especially those owned by women, and helps them improve resilience to climate change impacts.^[41]

Activism

In 2022, Egypt hosted COP 27 talks.^[42] At COP27, UNICEF promoted the idea that climate change should be recognized as a crisis for the rights and wellbeing of children. They also did this in order to increase children's participation in climate mitigation processes.^[43] However, there were questions about the selection of Egypt as a host, due to concerns about Egypts human rights and environmental policies.^[44] While COP 27 was taking place, there were protests taking place throughout Egypt about climate issues.^[45][46] Some of these protests were calling for climate reparations and demanding that wealthy, developed countries largely responsible for climate change pay developing countries for the consequences of climate change they will disproportionately deal with.^[45]