Since the beginning of the 1990s, social and demographic changes in the Russian Federation, stemming from under the Soviet Union, led the country towards an aging population, often described in media as a "demographic crisis".[1][2][3]
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Population pyramid of Russia from 2020 to projections up to 2100
History
Total population of Russia 1950–2010
In the economic sphere
The demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.[4]
With a reduced fertility rate, the load on the working population increases because each worker has to support more retirees.[1]
Russia at the end of the 19th century was a country with a young population: the number of children significantly exceeded the number of the elderly. Up to 1938, the population of the Soviet Union remained "demographically young", but later, since 1959, began its demographic ageing: the proportion of young age began to decline, and the elderly – to increase, which was the result of lower fertility.[2] This was not unique to Russia, and such issues have been felt in many developed countries and increasingly in many developing countries as well.[5]
Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences from the early 2000s, in 2016 elderly people aged over 60 would have accounted for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years would only have made up 17%. However, in Russia, in contrast to other countries, aging is limited by high mortality among older people.[2][7]
Russian soldier killed in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has further exacerbated Russia's demographic crisis.[8]
In 2020 however, death rates of over 500,000 people were reported due to the COVID-19 pandemic and 700,000 total deaths since the start of the pandemic. Comparing the two years, 2021 has estimated to have less of an impact on death rates but still exceeded beyond the average birth rates. President Vladimir Putin's plan to overturn the stagnation was announced in 2017 in response to the downward trend. However the plan only partially helped in their demographic crisis and was hindered by the Pandemic, despite showing signs of recovery.
The natural population declined by 997,000 between October 2020 and September 2021 (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a period).[12] The natural death rate in January 2020, 2021, and 2022 have each been nearly double the natural birth rate.[13]
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the demographic crisis in the country has deepened,[14] as the country has reportedly suffered high military fatalities while facing renewed brain drain and human capital flight caused by Western mass-sanctions and boycotts.[15] Many commentators predict that the situation will be worse than during the 1990s.[16]
In March 2023, The Economist reported that "Over the past three years the country has lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war [in Ukraine], disease and exodus."[17]
According to Russian economist Alexander Isakov, "Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties."[18] Russian journalist Andrey Kolesnikov noted that "We are seeing a phenomenon Russia has faced many times: wave after wave of wars and repression that drain away human resources."[19]
The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia’s population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.[20][17]
In January 2024, the Russian statistics agency Rosstat predicted that Russia’s population could drop to 130 million by 2046.[21]
Луцкая Е. Е. Проблемы социально-демографического развития // Социальные и гуманитарные науки. Отечественная и зарубежная литература. Серия 2: Экономика. Реферативный журнал, No. 4, 2001. С. 104–108.
Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, G. A. Cornia. Population crisis and rising mortality in transitional Russia. — in.: The mortality crisis in transitional economies. — Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000: p.253—279.
Белобородов И. И. Социальные технологии формирования семейно-демографической политики в России в условиях демографического кризиса // Диссертация на соискание учёной степени кандидата социологических наук / Российский государственный социальный университет. Москва, 2008.
Рязанцев С. В.Эмиграция женщин из России. Доклад на круглом столе «Семья и будущее цивилизаций» Мирового общественного форума «Диалог цивилизаций» (7—11.10.2010 г., Греция).
