Electoral history in the 80's and 90's

From a highpoint in the 1980s, Fine Gael went into slight, then sharp decline. Despite Dukes launching the Tallaght Strategy in 1987, the party gained just four seats in the following general election. In 1990, its candidate in the Irish presidential election, Austin Currie, was pushed into a humiliating third place, behind the winner, Labour's Mary Robinson and Fianna Fáil's Brian Lenihan. This led to John Bruton replacing Alan Dukes as the party's leader.

Party in Opposition

In 1989, political history was made when Fianna Fáil abandoned one of its "core principles", its opposition to coalition. Having failed in 1987 and 1989 to win outright majorities, Fianna Fáil entered into a coalition administration with the Progressive Democrats. Commentators predicted that that would leave Fine Gael isolated, with Fianna Fáil able to swap coalition partners to keep itself continuously in power. This was also precipitated by the fact that now, under its new pact with the Progressive Democrats, Fianna Fáil would now be able to, though remaining quite ideologically populist, dominate the fiscally conservative, right of centre vacuum previously dominated by Fine Gael. The rise of the Progressive Democrats diminished Fine Gael's chances of continuing to promote the Fitzgerald-ite liberal agenda alongside its more traditional, right wing economic conservatism. This phenomenon indeed became even more apparent when, after the 1992 general election, Fianna Fáil replaced the Progressive Democrats with the Labour Party in coalition.

Coalition government

However the Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition disintegrated in 1994, allowing Bruton to emerge as Taoiseach of a three-party Rainbow Coalition, involving Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left. This was in spite of a pre-election promise in 1992 from Bruton that Fine Gael would not enter government with the Democratic Left, a party which had links to militant Irish republicanism, as well as being left leaning in its outlook.

Divorce referendum

The government called a referendum on divorce which was carried by a narrow majority. John Bruton gained respect for his leadership during the campaign. The Government also oversaw the first period of unprecedented economic growth, job creation on a massive scale and Ireland's first budget surplus in over twenty five years. The Irish economy continued to thrive under Fine Gael and Labour with the introduction of the 12.5% rate of corporation tax and a modest cut in income tax.

1997 general election, return to opposition

However, the Provisional IRA ceasefire ended in 1996, stalling the peace process. Many nationalists blamed the approach taken by Taoiseach John Bruton for this setback.^{[citation needed]} The three parties worked well together and fought the 1997 election on a united platform. At the 1997 general election, Fine Gael won 54 seats, a gain of 9 seats. However, the Labour Party suffered considerable losses, falling from 32 seats to 17, while Democratic Left also lost two seats. This left Bruton far short of the parliamentary support he needed to retain office. A Fianna Fáil–Progressive Democrat coalition led by Bertie Ahern entered office, with Bruton reverting to leadership of the opposition.

Ousting of Bruton, election as leader

Despite increasing their seats to 54, Fine Gael returned to opposition and Noonan became Opposition Spokesman for Finance following the 1997 general election. In 2001, following a series of disastrous opinion polls, Noonan and his colleague, Jim Mitchell, tabled a motion of no confidence in the leader, John Bruton. The motion was successful in ousting Bruton as leader, with Noonan becoming leader of Fine Gael and Leader of the Opposition with Mitchell becoming deputy leader. Noonan avoided requests to be interviewed on TV and radio programmes, including some on RTÉ and Today FM, ahead of the leadership election.^[2]

2002 general election, resignation as leader

At the 2002 general election, Fine Gael had a disastrous result, dropping from 54 seats to 31 and a number of high-profile front bench member losses, including Alan Dukes, Deirdre Clune, Alan Shatter and deputy leader Jim Mitchell.^[3] Noonan resigned as Fine Gael leader on the night of the election.

Electoral history from 2004–2009

Under its new leader, Enda Kenny, Fine Gael staged a recovery in local and European elections held on 11 June 2004, becoming the largest Irish party in the European Parliament by winning five seats (compared to just four seats for the ruling Fianna Fáil party), while it came within nine seats of becoming the largest party in local government. The recovery for Fine Gael was complete when it gained 20 seats at the 2007 general election. The party entered into an electoral alliance with the Labour Party in Mullingar during 2005, the "Alliance For Change". This election, however, did not bring Fine Gael back into power. In the local elections of 2009, Fine Gael surpassed Fiannna Fáil, gaining over 40 seats and bringing the total up to 340 compared to Fianna Fáil's 180. At European level, Fine Gael was the largest party and won the Dublin South by-election with George Lee sweeping to victory with over 54% of the vote and just missing out on a seat in Dublin Central with Paschal Donohoe, although Lee later resigned from his position after only nine months due to having "virtually no influence or input" into shaping Fine Gael's economic policies.^[4][5]

Rise in opinion polls

In 2010, opinion polls had Labour ahead of Fine Gael with Fianna Fáil's collapse in the votes not transferring to Fine Gael.^{[citation needed]} Deputy Leader Richard Bruton along with nine of the Fine Gael Front Bench challenged Enda Kenny for the leadership. In a bitter battle, Enda Kenny won the confidence vote of the party and set about healing the wounds.^{[citation needed]} He reappointed Richard Bruton to the Front Bench along with bringing Michael Noonan back into the Front Bench as Spokesman on Finance.^{[citation needed]} The arrival of the IMF to bail out the country's finances in November of that year saw Fianna Fáil implode.

2011 general election, Government formation

Fine Gael, with strong performances from Noonan and his team of deputies, saw Fine Gael support rise heading into the general election which was called in February 2011. Many^[who?] believed Enda Kenny had a terrific campaign and the question was now whether Fine Gael could get an overall majority. When the votes were counted Fine Gael fell short with an historic seat total of 76 seats and 36.1% of the vote, becoming the largest party in the Dáil for the first time. The Fianna Fáil vote collapsed to 17.4% and 20 seats in the Dáil, compared to 41.6% and 77 seats at the previous general election. A new government was formed with the Labour Party under the leadership of Enda Kenny as Taoiseach. He had led the party from the abyss to the greatest victory in their history and now had the largest party in the state.

2013 party expulsion crisis

In July 2013 five TDs (Lucinda Creighton, Terence Flanagan, Peter Mathews, Billy Timmins and Brian Walsh) and two senators (Paul Bradford and Fidelma Healy Eames) were expelled from the Fine Gael parliamentary party for opposing the Fine Gael–Labour Party coalition's Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act 2013.^[6] In September 2013 they founded the Reform Alliance along with Denis Naughten, another Fine Gael TD who had been expelled for opposing the 2011 budget's downgrade of Roscommon County Hospital.^[6] Brian Walsh declined to join the bloc.^[7] Creighton had the highest profile of the founders, having been Minister of State for European Affairs prior to her expulsion.^[8] She denied being the leader of the new group.^[9]

2016 general election, return to government

On 3 February 2016, Kenny announced his intention to request that President Higgins dissolve the 31st Dáil. He told the Dáil before its dissolution that the 2016 general election would occur on Friday, 26 February.^[10]

Fine Gael won 50 seats in the 32nd Dáil, 29 short of an overall majority. Preliminary discussions took place with Leader of the Opposition Mícheál Martin, in order to agree on an arrangement to support either Kenny, Fine Gael or under a new leader to form a new government.^[11] On 10 March 2016, Kenny resigned as Taoiseach, after failing to win enough votes to be elected for a second term. He and the cabinet continued in a caretaker capacity until a new government was formed.^[12]

On 29 April 2016, an agreement was reached with Fianna Fáil to allow a Fine Gael–led minority government, and on 6 May 2016, Kenny was elected Taoiseach again, by a margin of 59 to 49 votes (with 51 abstentions), and formed a government. He became the first member of Fine Gael to win re-election as Taoiseach in the party's history. Kenny also took over as Minister for Defence, from Simon Coveney, who was appointed Minister for Housing, Planning, Community and Local Government.^[13]

Resignation as party leader, 2017 leadership election

On 17 May 2017, Kenny announced his intention to step down as party leader, effective at midnight.^[14] He requested that the party conclude the election of his successor by 2 June 2017, and said that he would step down as Taoiseach shortly thereafter.^{[citation needed]} In the ensuing election, Minister for Social Protection Leo Varadkar was elected Leader of Fine Gael.^[15] In a statement, Kenny offered his "heartiest congratulations" to Varadkar, saying "this is a tremendous honour for him and I know he will devote his life to improving the lives of people across our country".^[16]

On 13 June 2017, Kenny tendered his resignation as Taoiseach. The following day, 14 June 2017, he nominated Varadkar to formally succeed him as Taoiseach in the Dáil; the Dáil approved the nomination. Kenny then made his farewell address to the Dáil, quoting U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt: "Far and away, the best prize that life has to offer is a chance to work hard at work worth doing." After receiving a standing ovation from the Dáil, Kenny departed for Áras an Uachtaráin and submitted his resignation to President Michael D. Higgins. In his last duty as Taoiseach he advised the President that the Dáil had nominated Varadkar as Taoiseach, and that the President should thus invite him to form a new government and appoint him as Taoiseach in accordance with the constitution.

Election as leader, appointment as Taoiseach

On 2 June 2017, Varadkar was elected leader of Fine Gael, defeating Simon Coveney.^[17] Although Coveney had the support of more Fine Gael members than Varadkar, the electoral college system more strongly weighted the votes of the party's parliamentarians, with these strongly backing Varadkar.^[18]

Approval rating

In January 2018, his opinion poll approval ratings reached 60%, a ten-year high for any Taoiseach.^[19]

2018 Abortion referendum

In January 2018, he announced that the referendum to repeal Ireland's 8th Amendment which prevented any liberalisation of restrictive abortion laws would take place in May. If passed, it would allow the government to introduce new legislation. It was proposed that women would be allowed unrestricted access to abortion up until 12 weeks, with exceptions if the mother's life is in danger up until six months. Varadkar said he would campaign for liberalising the laws, saying his mind was changed by difficult cases during his tenure as Minister for Health.^[20] The referendum passed with 66% of the votes.^[21]

2020 general election

On 14 January 2020, Varadkar sought a dissolution of the 32nd Dáil, which was granted by President Michael D. Higgins, and scheduled a general election for 8 February.^[22] In that election, Varadkar was re-elected in the Dublin West constituency,^[23][24] but Fine Gael fell to 35 seats, 15 fewer than in 2016, and falling to third place behind Fianna Fáil (38 seats) and Sinn Féin (37 seats). Varadkar ruled out any possibility of a Fine Gael–Sinn Féin coalition during the election campaign, though a "grand coalition" of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael was floated as a final possibility.^[25] However, on 12 February, Varadkar conceded that Fine Gael had lost the election and that he was very likely to become the next Opposition Leader. Varadkar added that Fine Gael was "willing to step back" to allow Sinn Féin, as the winner of the popular vote, to have the first opportunity to form a government.^[26] On 20 February, Varadkar offered his resignation to President Higgins at Áras an Uachtaráin, pursuant to the constitution, remaining, however, as Taoiseach until the formation of a new government.^[27]

COVID-19 pandemic

The first case of COVID-19 was discovered in Ireland on 29 February 2020. While in Washington, D.C., ahead of Saint Patrick's Day, Varadkar announced measures intended to stop COVID-19 spreading, including the closure of all schools, universities and childcare facilities from the following day, as well as the closure of all cultural institutions and the cancellation of "all indoor mass gatherings of more than 100 people and outdoor mass gatherings of more than 500 people".^[28] After returning home early, Varadkar addressed the nation on Saint Patrick's night during A Ministerial Broadcast by An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, TD, introducing television viewers to the concept of "cocooning", i.e. "At a certain point… we will advise the elderly and people who have a long-term illness to stay at home for several weeks".^[29][30][31] The speech was the most watched television event in Irish history, surpassing the previous record held by The Late Late Toy Show by an additional total of about 25% and was widely distributed globally.^[32][33] It was also plagiarised by Irish businessman Peter Bellew, the chief operating officer at British low-cost airline group EasyJet.^[34]

In response to a March 2020 Health Service Executive appeal to healthcare professionals, Varadkar rejoined the medical register and offered to work as a doctor one day each week.^[35]

2020 government formation

On 14 April, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael reached a coalition agreement, which includes a rotation for Taoiseach. However, they lacked a majority and needed to bring other parties or independents into the coalition in order to form a government.^[36] The Greens required an annual 7% cut to carbon emissions, among other demands, to participate as the third party of government; these demands did not include Green leader Eamon Ryan participating in the taoiseach rotation scheme, despite rumours to the contrary.^[37][38][39] The Social Democrats, Aontú, and technical groups of independents also expressed varying degrees of interest in entering into government formation negotiations with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.^{[40][41][42][43]}

A draft programme for government was agreed between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party on 15 June 2020. It was determined that the position of Taoiseach would rotate between Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar.^{[44][verification needed]} The programme needed the approval by each party's membership. Fianna Fáil and the Green Party require a simple majority and a 67% majority, respectively, in a postal ballot of all members, while Fine Gael uses an electoral college system, with its parliamentary party making up 50% of the electorate, constituency delegates 25%, councillors 15% and the party's executive council filling the final 10%.^[44]

On 26 June, Fine Gael voted 80%, Fianna Fáil voted 74% and the Green Party voted 76% in favour of the programme. Clare Bailey, the leader of the Green Party in Northern Ireland – a branch of the Irish Green Party – publicly rejected the idea of the Greens being part of the coalition deal with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. She said the coalition deal proposed the "most fiscally conservative arrangements in a generation".^[45] The coalition deal allowed for a government to be formed on 27 June, with Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin serving as Taoiseach until December 2022.^[46][47] Subsequently, the Dáil voted on 27 June to nominate Micheál Martin as Taoiseach. He was appointed afterward by President Michael D. Higgins and announced his cabinet later that day.^[48]

Coalition government

In October 2020, Village magazine published a claim that Leo Varadkar had provided a copy of a confidential document to the head of the National Association of General Practitioners that had been part of negotiations with the Irish Medical Organisation in April 2019 while Taoiseach.^[49] Fine Gael issued a statement which described the article as "both inaccurate and grossly defamatory", and while accepting that the provision of the agreement by private channels was "not best practice", said there was nothing unlawful about what had occurred.^[50] Sinn Féin tabled a motion of no confidence in the Tánaiste. In response, the Taoiseach moved a motion of confidence.

At a cabinet meeting in July 2021, Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney announced the appointment of Katherine Zappone, former Minister for Children and Youth Affairs, to the newly created position of Special Envoy to the UN for Freedom of Opinion and Expression. It emerged that the proposed appointment had not been flagged by Coveney with the Taoiseach in advance of the meeting.^[51] Zappone declined the appointment after the Merrion Hotel controversy arose, in which the Irish Independent reported that six days prior to the announcement of her appointment, Zappone had hosted a gathering for 50 guests, including Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, at the Merrion Hotel while the COVID-19 pandemic was ongoing. Comparisons were made between the gathering and the Golfgate scandal earlier in the pandemic.^[52] Sinn Féin tabled a motion of no confidence in Coveney, to be debated on 15 September on the return of the Dáil from the summer recess. In response, the Taoiseach moved a motion of confidence.^[53]

On 6 July 2022, the government lost its majority after Fine Gael TD Joe McHugh voted against legislation underpinning a €2.7 billion mica redress scheme and subsequently resigned the Fine Gael party whip.^[54] Sinn Féin tabled a motion of no confidence in the government, to be debated on 12 July before the summer recess.^[55] In response, the Taoiseach moved a motion of confidence.^[56]

Micheál Martin resigned as Taoiseach on Saturday 17 December 2022 to allow the appointment of Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach and the formation of a new government, a continuation of the coalition between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party for the remainder of the 33rd Dáil.^[57][58] The date agreed in the Programme for Government had been Thursday 15 December, but this date was put back to facilitate Martin's attendance at a meeting of the European Council.^[58]

Resignation of Varadkar, leadership election

On 20 March 2024, Varadkar resigned as leader. In his resignation speech, Varadkar stated that the reasons for his stepping down were "both personal and political" and that he was no longer the "best person for the job".^[59][60] On 24 March, following an uncontested leadership election, Simon Harris succeeded him as leader.

Following the resignation of Varadkar as Taoiseach on 8 April, Harris was nominated by the Dáil as Taoiseach on 9 April 2024, by a vote of 88 to 69. He received his appointment as Taoiseach by President Michael D. Higgins shortly afterwards as the youngest in the history of the state.^[61] Accepting the nomination of the Dáil, he paid tribute to his predecessor and acknowledged his status as the youngest elected officeholder, promising to be a "Taoiseach for all".^[62] The cabinet formation of the 34th government is yet to be announced by Harris in the Dáil.^[63]