Lebanese liquidity crisis


The Lebanese Liquidity Crisis or the Lebanese Economic collapse is an ongoing financial crisis affecting the nation of Lebanon, starting in August 2019, which further exacerbated by both the COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon (which began in 2020) and the 2020 Beirut port explosion.

Background


Since 1997, the Lebanese pound has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 1,507.5 LBP per USD. In August 2019, due to various financial hardships, especially the growing probability that the Lebanese government will default on maturing debt obligations, the black market exchange rate started diverging from the official exchange rate.

In the fall of 2019, the black market exchange rate reached 1,600 LBP per USD, and increased to 3,000 LBP per USD in April 2020,[1][2] 14,000 LBP per USD in March 2021 and 15200 LBP per USD in June 2021.[3] The USD black market exchange rate continues to fluctuate substantially due to devaluation of the Lebanese pound caused by acute USD shortages within Lebanon.[4] This dollar shortage also caused 785 restaurants and cafes to close between September 2019 and February 2020 and resulted in 25,000 employees losing their jobs.[5][6] Consumer goods prices have increased by 580% since October resulting from the worst economic crisis in decades.[7] This economic crisis made Lebanon's gross domestic product fall to about 44 billion USD from about 55billion USD the year before.[8]

Consequences


The fall of the exchange rate caused the 2019–2021 Lebanese protests, which ultimately resulted in the resignation of the prime minister and his cabinet. After the resignation occurred, the COVID-19 pandemic forced additional businesses to close their doors and to lay off their employees.[9]

Prime minister Hassan Diab stated that the country would default on its Eurobond debt and seek out restructuring agreements amid a spiraling financial crisis that has affected foreign currency reserves. Lebanon was due to pay a US$1.2 billion Eurobond on 9 March 2020, with another 700 million USD expected to mature in April and a further 600 million USD in June. Due to the lack of foreign currencies, the prime minister said that the reserves had fallen to "a worrying and dangerous level which pushes the Lebanese government to suspend payment of the 9 March Eurobond maturity because of a need for these funds."[10][11]

The head of research at Bank Audi stated that Lebanese banks owned 12.7 billion USD of the country's outstanding 30 billion USD Eurobonds as of January 2020. The central bank held 5.7 billion USD and the remainder was owned by foreign creditors.[10]

The debt to GDP ratio sits at 170% as of April 2020. The default is the first one in the history of the country. Foreign currency inflows have slowed and Lebanon's pound has dropped in value compared to the dollar and other currencies. The nation's commercial banks have imposed tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers to maintain reserves. Due to this Lebanon's sovereign debt became junk rated.[9][10]

The Lebanese pound was pegged at around 1,500 per US$1; since October 2019, it has dropped to a third of this value, reaching 4,500 per US$1 on black markets on 28 April 2020. Two weeks before that, the currency sat at around 3,000 to US$1. Official valuations are different from the ones on the black market. One bank allowed depositors to withdraw Lebanese pounds from their dollar account at 2,000 to US$1. This caused significant anger towards the banks. The prime minister has sharply criticized the governor of the central bank Riad Salameh over its performance.[9]

The shortage of U.S. dollars, which are used in everyday transactions in Lebanon, and the crash in the value of the pound have undercut the country's ability to pay for imports, including essentials such as wheat and oil. Banks have stopped giving short-term loans to businesses and no longer provide them with U.S. dollars for imports, forcing people to turn to the black markets. There is also significant inflation, which caused a massive loss of purchasing power and an increase in poverty. The price of foule or ful, a fava bean common in the region, was up 550% in March 2020 over a year earlier. Sugar has seen an increase of 670%, while wheat, tea, rice, and cigarettes have all gone up nearly 1000% over the same period.[9]

This liquidity crisis also created a barrier to every single person who had accounts in Lebanese banks; as they are unable to access their deposits. Not only are they unable to access their deposits, but they are unable to withdraw any USD directly. They can withdraw them in the national currency.[12] These depositors needed to preserve the value of their savings, especially following press reports about possible haircuts and restructuring of the banking sector. They therefore turned to buying real estate.[13] For example, revenues from land sales of the major real estate developer, Solidere company, soared from nearly $1.3 million to $234.5 million.[14] Also, these depositors turned to buying shares in Solidere company, which lead to a rise of 500% in it between the start of the liquidity crisis and April 2021.[15]

On 1 June 2021, the World Bank released a report which warned that the economic crisis in Lebanon would risk becoming one of the three most severe since the mid-19th century, if its "bankrupt economic system, which benefited a few for so long" weren't reformed.[16]

See also


References


  1. "Lira Rate | USD to LBP in Black Market | Dollar to LBP". Lira Rate.
  2. "Banque du Liban: Data Series".
  3. "Lebanese Lira to US Dollar Exchange Rates". LebaneseLira.org. Retrieved 8 May 2021.
  4. "Lebanese petrol stations shudder to a halt amid nationwide strike". www.aljazeera.com.
  5. "Lebanon: 785 Restaurants, Cafes Closed, 25,000 Employees Laid Off". Asharq AL-awsat.
  6. "US dollar shortage and Lebanon's economic crisis". www.aljazeera.com.
  7. "Lebanon: Currency Drops, Central Bank Sets New Exchange Rate at Transfer Firms". www.english.aawsat.com.
  8. "Lebanon's GDP declines to $44 billion from $55 billion | Business , Local | THE DAILY STAR". www.dailystar.com.lb.
  9. Dadouch, Sarah (28 April 2020). "Unrest escalates in Lebanon as currency collapses and prospect of hunger grows". The Washington Post.
  10. France-Presse, Agence (7 March 2020). "Lebanon to default on debt for first time amid financial crisis". The Guardian.
  11. Domat, Chloe (3 March 2020). "Lebanon: Facing Down A Liquidity Crisis". Global Finance.
  12. "Lebanon's Financial Crisis: Where Did the Money Go?". lcps-lebanon.org. Retrieved 4 October 2020.
  13. Nakhoul, Shikrallah (1 June 2020). "Solidere share price doubles compared with October 2019". businessnews.com.lb. Retrieved 19 July 2020.
  14. Khalaf, Gisele (1 July 2020). "Solidere posts first net profit since 2016". businessnews.com.lb. Retrieved 19 July 2020.
  15. "سهم سوليدير اللبنانية يرتفع لأعلى مستوياته منذ 2009". Al Arabiya. 18 March 2021. Retrieved 7 April 2021.
  16. "Lebanon Sinking into One of the Most Severe Global Crises Episodes, amidst Deliberate Inaction". The World Bank. 1 June 2021.