Constituency profile

Moray is an affluent rural constituency in the north-east of Scotland. The constituency follows the southern coastline of the Moray Firth between Cullen to the east and Dyke to the west, on the outskirts of Forres, and extends up towards the northern fringes of the Cairngorms National Park along the River Spey and its tributaries. The constituency also covers the River Lossie and its tributaries, and the lower reaches of the River Findhorn.

Agriculture, fishing, tourism and whisky distilling are important in the local economy. Along the north coast of Moray is a mixture of fishing towns and villages such as Lossiemouth, Portessie and Portknockie. Lossiemouth houses the RAF Lossiemouth Royal Air Force station, which is among the busiest and largest fast-jet stations in the Royal Air Force, and is an important source of employment for those living in the Laich of Moray between Elgin, Forres and Lossiemouth. On the eastern banks of the River Findhorn, 15 miles south-west of Lossiemouth, is the larger town of Forres, which is the site of Sueno's Stone, Brodie Castle and the Dallas Dhu Distillery.

There is a cluster of whisky distilleries along the River Spey and along the A941 corridor between Craigellachie and Moray's capital of Elgin. Elgin is Moray's largest town and the site of the Elgin Cathedral. It houses about 25% of Moray's population, and is often referred to as a city despite lacking official recognition. According to a 2006 survey conducted by HBOS, Elgin has among the highest property prices of any town in Scotland.

South and east of Elgin, the River Spey and areas east of the river historically belonged to the former county of Banffshire, while Moray instead incorporated parts of Nairn, which is today included in the Highland council area and in the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey parliamentary constituency. The upper reaches of the River Spey stretch down from mountainous terrain in the south to still thinly populated rolling plains. Rural communities in this region predominantly rely upon tourism, whisky distilling and agriculture for employment. In the north-east of Moray, Buckie is a prominent fishing port.

Oil also forms a substantial part of the local economy: over 10% of Moray's population commute to Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, primarily working in the oil and gas industry.^{[citation needed]}

Voting patterns

Historically Moray was predominantly represented by the Conservative Party. The constituency's predecessor seats of Banffshire and Moray and Nairn were represented by the Conservatives almost continuously from the 1935 general election until both seats were abolished to form Moray in 1983, with the electorate briefly voting SNP at the February and October general elections in 1974. When the Moray constituency was first established in 1983, it elected Alexander Pollock of the Conservatives as MP with a 1,713 (4.0%) majority, but the SNP's Margaret Ewing won the seat at the following general election in 1987, alongside neighbouring Banff and Buchan as part of a wider breakthrough for the SNP in the north-east of Scotland.

The constituency was a Conservative-SNP marginal until Labour's landslide victory in 1997, when Margaret Ewing doubled her majority to 5,566 (14.0%). Labour made a breakthrough in the constituency at the 2001 general election when Margaret Ewing retired to be replaced by Angus Robertson: Labour came ahead of the Conservatives for the first time, but the SNP beat them by 1,744 votes (5.2%); however the seat reverted to a SNP-Conservative battle from the 2005 general election onwards. Angus Robertson increased his majority at the 2005 general election; it was reduced slightly in 2010 before increasing again in 2015.

At the 2015 general election, the Conservatives had their best result in the constituency since 1997; Moray was their strongest vote increase in the whole of Scotland. The equivalent Scottish Parliamentary constituency of Moray was thought of as very safe for the SNP since the 2003 Scottish Parliament election, however in 2016 the SNP's majority in the constituency was cut by the Conservatives from 10,944 (38.3%) to 2,875 (8.6%).

In the 2017 Moray Council election, the Conservatives were for the first time the largest party by votes cast in Moray; they had the highest first-preference votes in five electoral wards. The party were ahead in all wards in the more densely populated north-west of the council area, an area known as the Laich of Moray, covering the towns of Elgin, Forres, Lossiemouth, Burghead, Hopeman and Lhanbryde; whilst the SNP were ahead in the three electoral wards covering Buckie, Cullen, Keith and Speyside.

Douglas Ross gained the seat for the Conservative Party at the 2017 snap election, securing 22,637 votes (47.5%), ahead of the sitting SNP MP Angus Robertson's 18,478 votes (38.8%). Robertson's loss was one of the high-profile losses for the Scottish National Party at the 2017 general election; the other major loss being former SNP leader and First Minister Alex Salmond losing his Gordon seat to Colin Clark of the Conservatives. In a profile of the seat for The Guardian after the election, journalist Severin Carrell summarised the result: "Moray had been an SNP seat for 30 years but... using Brexit as the basis for a second independence vote so soon after 2014 crystallised an irritation with the party brewing for several years. The Tory cry that Sturgeon needed “to get on with the day job” resonated."^[4]

Elections in the 2010s

Elections in the 2000s

Elections in the 1990s

Elections in the 1980s