Navarrese_regional_election,_2015

2015 Navarrese regional election

2015 Navarrese regional election

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The 2015 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Quick Facts All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...

Regional president Yolanda Barcina, who had only came to power in 2011 after the establishment of a coalition government between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)—which proved to be short-lived, as Barcina herself expelled the PSN from the cabinet in 2012 over disagreements with then-PSN leader Roberto Jiménez—announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not seek re-election for a second term in office. This came after a legislature that proved to become the most unstable since the Spanish transition to democracy, with Barcina's minority government being unable to pass any budget following 2012, with one failed motion of no confidence in 2013 and the scare of a new one in 2014 over a number of corruption scandals besieging UPN.[1]

After a spell of 19 years in power since 1996, the election saw UPN's support plummet to a low in popular support unseen since 1987, whereas the PSN scored its worst result in history. Both parties, together with the support obtained by the then-ruling party in Spain, the People's Party (PP), commanded just 24 seats, two short of a majority, allowing an alliance of Geroa Bai (GBai), EH Bildu and Izquierda-Ezkerra (I–E) with external support from Podemos to access the regional government and have GBai's Uxue Barkos elected as new president.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[2] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Navarrese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3]

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.[4]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[2][4][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[2]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in a coalition agreement between Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN), with UPN leader Yolanda Barcina being elected as President.[6] However, tension remained frequent between both coalition partners,[7] and in June 2012, PSN-PSOE leader and then-Vice President of Navarre Roberto Jiménez' questioning of a UPN's decision to pass an additional budget cut of 132 billion euros resulted in his expulsion from Barcina's Cabinet. The PSOE withdrew from the regional government, leaving UPN in minority.[8][9] As a consequence, with the left-wing opposition commanding a majority in Parliament, political instability marked the remainder of the legislature, with the government being unable to pass its bills into law or to approve further budgets.[10]

The eruption of the Caja Navarra scandal in early 2013, involving President Barcina and other UPN high-ranking members,[11][12] resulted in an ill-fated attempt by Bildu and Aralar / Nafarroa Bai to bring forward a censure motion against Yolanda Barcina, which had no realistic prospect of succeeding because of PSN abstention.[13] Additionally, dissent within Barcina's party materialized with party Vice President Alberto Catalán forcing a leadership election in March 2013 which Barcina was only narrowly able to win.[14] In February 2014, Finance Counselor Lourdes Goicoechea was accused of influence peddling within the regional Treasury,[15][16] prompting Roberto Jiménez to threaten Barcina with a censure motion if she did not voluntarily call for a snap regional election.[17][18] The PSOE national leadership, however, explicitly forbade its regional branch from reaching any kind of agreement that needed Bildu's support, and Jiménez backed down on his threat as a consequence.[19]

The PSN-PSOE was severely mauled in the same year European Parliament election, winning just 14.5% compared to the 31.5% it had won in 2009, and losing over half of its 2009 votes (31,629 compared to 63,848 in 2009). Roberto Jiménez resigned as PSN leader, being succeeded by María Chivite.[20][21] The abertzale left represented under EH Bildu's flag, on the other hand, became the second political force of the community for the first time ever, with 20.2% of the vote.

Podemos' emergence in opinion polls marked the end of the legislature and into 2015. Yolanda Barcina, initially widely scheduled to stand for re-election,[22] announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not stand for a second term as President of Navarre.[23] A primary election was held on 29 November 2014, in which incumbent Local Government minister Javier Esparza defeated Alberto Catalán and became UPN candidate for the 2015 regional election.

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Navarre was officially dissolved on 31 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Navarre.[24] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.

More information Groups, Parties ...

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

More information Candidacy, Parties and alliances ...

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Navarre.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Results

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...
More information Popular vote ...
More information Seats ...

Aftermath

Investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called.[2]

More information Ballot →, 20 July 2015 ...

Notes

  1. Results for NaBai 2011 in the 2011 election.
  2. Within PP.
  3. Results for Amaiur.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. "Comunidad Foral de Navarra. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 February 2016.
  3. "UPN se estanca y el cambio se abre paso con una participación histórica". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original on 18 May 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  4. "NAVARRA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo CIES". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. "Encuesta preelectoral". inPactos (in Spanish). 25 May 2015.
  6. "Ficha técnica". inPactos (in Spanish). 14 May 2015.
  7. "NAVARRA, Abril 2015. Sondeo Inpactos". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 April 2015.
  8. "NAVARRA, Abril 2015. Sondeo CIES". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 April 2015.
  9. "Nueva y sorprendente encuesta electoral en Navarra". NavarraConfidencial.com (in Spanish). 10 April 2015. Archived from the original on 3 July 2020.
  10. "NAVARRA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo Herkap". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 April 2015.
  11. "El desplome de UPN abre la puerta al cambio". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 22 March 2015. Archived from the original on 24 March 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  12. "El desplome de UPN abre la puerta al cambio". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
  13. "Comunidad Foral de Navarra: Bajo amenaza abertzale". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  14. "Comunidad Foral de Navarra. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 February 2016.
  15. "Los sociólogos ponen en duda los resultados del 'navarrómetro'". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 28 November 2014.
  16. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  17. "Estimación de voto y escaños en el Parlamento Foral" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 7 December 2014.
  18. "C. F. NAVARRA, Noviembre 2014. Sondeo Torrene Consulting". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 December 2014.
  19. "Encuesta marzo 2014". Ahotsa (in Spanish). 8 March 2014. Archived from the original on 10 March 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  20. "COMUNIDAD FORAL DE NAVARRA, Febrero 2014. Inpactos". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 March 2014.
  21. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  22. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 16 October 2014.
  23. "Una encuesta predice el desplome UPN-PP y la posibilidad de un gobierno entre PSN, Geroa Bai e I-E". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 30 September 2013. Archived from the original on 27 February 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  24. "Vuelco por el cambio en Navarra". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 8 June 2013.
  25. "Encuesta Gizaker". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 8 June 2013.
  26. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  27. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  28. "Navarra: ¿Uxue Presidenta?". El mundo en cifras (in Spanish). 10 May 2013. Archived from the original on 9 June 2013.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
Other
  1. Doria, Javier (16 February 2014). "Réquiem por la octava legislatura en Navarra". El País (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  2. Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra (Organic Law 13) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  3. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Law 16) (in Spanish). 17 December 1986. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  5. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  6. "The UPN-PSN agreement breaks apart before its 1st birthday" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2012-06-15.
  7. "Caja Navarra's opaque bonuses trap Barcina" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-06-05.
  8. "Former Treasury Director lit the fuse" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-02-13.
  9. "Barcina will lead UPN into the next election" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-08-30.
  10. "Barcina no concurrirá a la reelección en 2015". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Agencias. 10 November 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  11. "Memoir 2014–2015" (PDF). www.parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
  12. "Esparza derrota a Alberto Catalán y será el candidato de UPN al Gobierno de Navarra". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 29 November 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  13. "María Chivite será cabeza de lista del PSN en las elecciones 2015". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. EFE. 20 October 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  14. "La senadora María Chivite, elegida secretaria general del PSN-PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Pamplona. EFE. 13 December 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  15. "Barkos, única candidata para liderar lista de Geroa Bai al Parlamento". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. EFE. 19 September 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  16. "Uxue Barkos e Itziar Gomez, proclamadas candidatas de Geroa Bai". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). Pamplona. 3 October 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  17. Encinas, Javier (8 October 2014). "Adolfo Araiz será el cabeza de lista de EH Bildu al Parlamento". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  18. Arnez, Beatriz (6 January 2015). "Ana Beltrán se perfila como la candidata del PP a las forales". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  19. "Laura Pérez, elegida secretaria general de Podemos Navarra con el 52,3% de los votos". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). Pamplona. Europa Press. 14 February 2015. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  20. "Diego Paños, cabeza de lista de Ciudadanos al Parlamento de Navarra". 20 minutos (in Spanish). Pamplona. Europa Press. 12 April 2015. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  21. "IX Legislature (2015-2019)". parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
  22. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Nafarroako Parlamentua) (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.

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