Next_Australian_federal_election

Next Australian federal election

Next Australian federal election

Election for the 48th Parliament of Australia

The next Australian federal election will be held on or before 27 September 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.

Quick Facts All 150 seats in the House of Representatives76 seats are needed for a majority 40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate, Leader ...

Background

Previous election

Main article: 2022 Australian federal election
See also: Results of the 2022 Australian federal election (House of Representatives) and Results of the 2022 Australian federal election (Senate)

At the previous election in May 2022, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, formed government after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority. The Liberal–National Coalition that had previously governed won only 58 seats and went into opposition. Meanwhile, the crossbench, made up of other parties and independents, expanded to 16 seats; four held by the Greens, one each by Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party and the remaining 10 by independents.[1]

In the Senate, Labor made no gains and remained steady at 26 seats overall, whilst the Coalition lost some seats and retained only 32 seats. The Greens made gains and increased their share of seats to 12. One Nation also remained steady at 2 seats, Centre Alliance and Rex Patrick Team each lost their sole Senate seat, while the Jacqui Lambie Network gained a second seat. David Pocock was also elected as an independent Senator, while the United Australia Party also gained a Senate seat. This meant Labor required 13 additional votes to pass legislation.[2]

Composition of parliament

See also: 47th Parliament of Australia § Changes in membership

The 47th Parliament opened on 26 July 2022. The Liberal Party entered the parliament with a new leader, with former defence and home affairs minister Peter Dutton replacing the outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison.[3]

On 23 December 2022, Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee left the party and became an Independent, following the party's decision to publicly oppose an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. This meant that the Crossbench increased to 17 seats with the Coalition decreasing to 57 seats.[4]

On 1 April 2023, Labor's Mary Doyle won the 2023 Aston by-election following the resignation of sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge. The result was considered a massive upset and marked the first time that an incumbent government won a seat from the Opposition since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election.[5] As a result, Labor increased their number of seats in the House of Representatives to 78, while the Coalition decreased to 56.

In May 2023, incumbent Liberal National MP Stuart Robert resigned, triggering another by-election, this time in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast. The seat was won by Liberal National candidate Cameron Caldwell, keeping the composition of the parliament unchanged. Also in May 2023, Dai Le, the independent member for the seat of Fowler in Western Sydney, formed her own political party, the Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network, alongside Frank Carbone, the Mayor of Fairfield. The party will be primarily based in Western Sydney.[6]

On 14 November 2023, following a party preselection defeat, Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent left the party to sit on the crossbench.[7]

On 4 December 2023, Labor Party MP Peta Murphy died of cancer, leaving Labor with 77 seats.

On 28 February 2024, former Prime Minister and Liberal MP Scott Morrison left parliament.

On 1 March 2024, Labor Senator Linda White died.

On 2 March 2024, Labor Party candidate Jodie Belyea retained the seat of Dunkley in the 2024 Dunkley by-election.

Current standings

Parties are listed according their vote share at the last federal election

More information Affiliation, House ...

State of electorates

Redistribution

See also: Divisions of the Australian House of Representatives and Redistribution (Australia)

The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

The apportionment determination was made in July 2023 based on the population figures for December 2022. The determination resulted in a reduction of one seat in New South Wales to 46, a reduction of one seat in Victoria to 38 and an increase of one seat in Western Australia to 16. The total number of seats in the House of Representatives will decrease from 151 to 150 at the next federal election.[8]

Voter registration

Enrollment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrollments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election.[9] Enrollment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18,[10] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrollment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.[11]

Election date

See also: Electoral system of Australia § Election day
More information Election type, Earliest date ...

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections,[12] so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2024. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 3 August 2024.[13] The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2025. The previous election's writs were returned on 24 June 2022, 34 days after the 2022 federal election.[14] Using this time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 24 May 2025.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot be called within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[15] That means that any double dissolution of the 47th Parliament would have had to be granted by 25 January 2025. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 29 March 2025.[13] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[16][17]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State."[18]
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.[12]
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[19] Since the 47th Parliament of Australia opened on 26 July 2022, it will expire on 25 July 2025.
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."[20] Ten days after 25 July 2025 is 4 August 2025.
  • Section 156(1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ."[21] Twenty-seven days after 4 August 2025 is 31 August 2025.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."[22] Thirty-one days after 31 August 2025 is 1 October 2025, a Wednesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday."[23] The Saturday before 1 October 2025 is 27 September 2025, which is the latest possible date for the lower house election.

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

Primary vote

Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election

Two-party preferred

Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election

See also

Notes

  1. Labor gained the seat of Aston from the Liberals at a by-election in 2023.
  2. In 2022, Andrew Gee (MP for Calare) left the National Party. In 2023, the Liberal Party lost the seat of Aston to Labor at a by-election. In November 2023, Russell Broadbent (MP for Monash) left the Liberal Party following his preselection loss.

References

  1. [1]
    "Australian Federal Election 2022 Live Results". ABC News. Retrieved 2 June 2022.
  2. [2]
    "Senate Results". ABC News. Retrieved 22 June 2022.
  3. [3]
    Hitch, Georgia (30 May 2022). "Peter Dutton elected new Liberal Party leader, Sussan Ley becomes deputy leader". ABC News.
  4. [4]
    Paul Karp (23 December 2022). "Nationals MP Andrew Gee quits party citing its opposition to Indigenous voice". The Guardian.
  5. [5]
    "Labor snatches historic victory in Aston by-election in Melbourne's outer east". ABC News.
  6. [6]
    "Independent MP Dai le looks to spin success in western Sydney into new political movement | Sydney | the Guardian".
  7. [7]
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-14/russell-broadbent-quits-liberal-party-after-preselection-loss/103102336
  8. [8]
    "House of Representatives to return to 150 members". Australian Electoral Commission. 27 July 2023. Retrieved 18 October 2023.
  9. [9]
    "Section 155: Date for close of Rolls". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 31 July 2017. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  10. [10]
    "Enrol to vote". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 1 October 2019. Retrieved 23 April 2021.
  11. [11]
    Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, s. 99A.
  12. [12]
    "Section 13: Rotation of Senators". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 17 April 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  13. [13]
    Lundie, Rob; Schatz, Laura; Muller, Damon (13 January 2020). "'So when is the next election?': Australian elections timetable as at January 2020". Parliamentary Library of Australia, Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  14. [14]
    "AEC returns writs for 2022 federal election". Australian Electoral Commission. 24 June 2022. Retrieved 26 July 2022.
  15. [15]
    "Section 57: Disagreement between the Houses". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  16. [16]
    Lundie, Rob (25 June 2009). "Australian elections timetable". Parliamentary Library of Australia, Parliament of Australia. Archived from the original on 8 January 2011.
  17. [17]
    Riga, Jessica (10 April 2022). "Prime Minister Scott Morrison announces May 21 election". ABC. Archived from the original on 9 April 2022. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  18. [18]
    "Section 12: Issue of writs". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 29 February 2020. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  19. [19]
    "Section 28: Duration of House of Representatives". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 18 August 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  20. [20]
    "Section 32: Writs for general election". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 18 August 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  21. [21]
    "Section 156: Date of nomination". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  22. [22]
    "Section 157: Date of polling". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 31 July 2016. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  23. [23]
    "Section 158: Polling to be on a Saturday". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  24. [24]
    "WA Labor Senator Louise Pratt announces she will step down at next election". ABC News. msn.com. 20 February 2024.
  25. [25]
    McHugh, Finn (18 April 2023). "Karen Andrews the latest frontbench resignation as Peter Dutton announces reshuffle". SBS News. Special Broadcasting Service. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  26. [26]
    Massola, James (8 April 2023). "Speculation grows over Morrison future in Cook as Liberal senate battles loom". The Sydney Morning Herald. Nine Entertainment. Retrieved 9 April 2023.
  27. [27]
    Marino, Nola (4 December 2023). "Nola Marino retirement announcement". Instagram. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  28. [28]
    Bermingham, Kathryn (25 March 2024). "'Time to tackle the next chapter': Another veteran MP to quit". The Advertiser (Adelaide). News Corp Australia. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  29. [29]
    Sakkal, Paul (7 July 2023). "Anti-vax Coalition MP Gerard Rennick dumped". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  30. [30]
    "Liberal senator Linda Reynolds to retire from politics". SBS News. 12 February 2023. Retrieved 12 February 2023.
  31. [31]
    Hore, Allison (25 March 2024). "Long-serving MP announces he will retire". Northern Daily Leader. Australian Community Media. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
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