2021 Senedd election
The next Senedd election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to Senedd Cymru - Welsh Parliament. It will be the sixth general election since the (formerly named) Assembly was established in 1999. The election is due to be held alongside the 2021 United Kingdom local elections and Scottish Parliament election.
All 60 seats to Senedd Cymru - Welsh Parliament
31 seats needed for a majority
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It will be the first election in which 16 and 17 year olds and legally resident foreign nationals are allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.
Seven parties had Assembly Members (AMs) in the fifth Assembly: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Mark Drakeford, the Welsh Conservatives led by Paul Davies, Plaid Cymru led by Adam Price, the Brexit Party led by Mark Reckless, the UK Independence Party led by Neil Hamilton, the Welsh Liberal Democrats led by Jane Dodds and the Welsh National Party led by Neil McEvoy.
In elections for the Senedd, each voter has two votes in the additional member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.
In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.
The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election. The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the 4 ex-UK Independence Party members, lead by Mark Reckless. A snap general election was called for 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote and they were completely wiped out of North Wales, apart from in Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing 6 parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's landslide victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds.
On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales voted to leave the EU. South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit was a cross-party issue, as those areas typically vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Caerphilly all voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, but are all represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Labour MPs.
Plaid campaigned for a remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. Plaid later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter. Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership. In a September 2019 YouGov poll, support for Welsh independence was between 24% in favour and 52% opposed in all circumstances, while 33% were in favour of independence and 48% opposed if it meant retaining membership of the European Union. A February 2020 YouGov poll concluded that 21% were in favour of independence and 56% against.
The following MSs will not run for re-election:
|Bridgend||Carwyn Jones||Welsh Labour|
|South Wales East||David Melding||Welsh Conservatives|
|Dwyfor Meirionnydd||Dafydd Elis-Thomas||Independent|
Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2016 result to change hands.
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||Labour's place 2016||Result|
|2||Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire||Conservative||3,373||5.75||2nd|
Plaid Cymru targets
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||PC's place 2016||Result|
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||Con's place 2016||Result|
|1||Vale of Glamorgan||Labour||777||1.05||2nd|
|2||Vale of Clwyd||Labour||768||1.55||2nd|
Liberal Democrat targets
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||LD's place 2016||Result|
NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.
The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.
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A vote for Plaid Cymru in the European elections on 23 May will be a vote for Wales to stay inside the European Union
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