2021 Senedd election
The next Senedd election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament. It will be the sixth general election since the (formerly named) Assembly was established in 1999. The election is due to be held alongside the 2021 United Kingdom local elections and Scottish Parliament election.
All 60 seats to Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament
31 seats needed for a majority
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It will be the first election in which 16 and 17 year olds and legally resident foreign nationals are allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.
Eight parties had Assembly Members (AMs)/Members of the Senedd (MSs) in the fifth Assembly/Parliament: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Mark Drakeford, the Welsh Conservatives led by Paul Davies, Plaid Cymru led by Adam Price, the Brexit Party led by Mark Reckless, the UK Independence Party led by Neil Hamilton, the Welsh Liberal Democrats led by Jane Dodds, the Welsh National Party led by Neil McEvoy, and the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party led by Richard Suchorzewski.
In elections for the Senedd, each voter has two votes in the additional member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.
In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.
The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election. The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the 4 ex-UK Independence Party members, led by Mark Reckless. A snap general election was called for 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote and they were completely wiped out of North Wales, apart from in Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing 6 parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's landslide victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds.
On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales voted to leave the EU. South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit was a cross-party issue, as those areas typically vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Caerphilly all voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, but are all represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Labour MPs.
Plaid campaigned for a remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. Plaid later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter. Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership. A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed.
It was announced on 29 June 2020 that the First Minister has set up a group with representatives from all of the main parties to look at the arrangements that might have to be in place if Covid-19 restrictions are still required. It will look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward".
The following MSs will not run for re-election:
|Bridgend||Carwyn Jones||Welsh Labour|
|South Wales East||David Melding||Welsh Conservatives|
|Dwyfor Meirionnydd||Dafydd Elis-Thomas||Independent|
Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||Labour's place 2016||Result|
|2||Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire||Conservative||3,373||5.75||2nd|
Plaid Cymru targets
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||PC's place 2016||Result|
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||Con's place 2016||Result|
|1||Vale of Glamorgan||Labour||777||1.05||2nd|
|2||Vale of Clwyd||Labour||768||1.55||2nd|
Liberal Democrat targets
|Rank||Constituency||Winning party 2016||Majority||Swing to gain||LD's place 2016||Result|
NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.
The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.
- The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Neil McEvoy, was elected as a member of Plaid Cymru in 2016, before leaving the party to become an independent, then created the Welsh National Party in 2020.
- The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Gareth Bennett was elected for UKIP in 2016, before leaving to become an independent, then joined the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020.
- "Wales Bill (Dates)" (PDF). publications.parliament.uk. Retrieved 7 October 2016.
- "16 and 17 year olds get right to vote - a historic day for democracy in Wales". National Assembly for Wales. 27 November 2019. Retrieved 24 December 2019.
- "Brexit Party tops European poll in Wales". 27 May 2019 – via www.bbc.com.
- "Assembly members join forces with Farage". BBC News. 15 May 2019. Retrieved 25 March 2020.
- "Tories claim big scalps in Wales election results". 13 December 2019 – via www.bbc.com.
- Perraudin, Frances (22 September 2019). "English people living in Wales tilted it towards Brexit, research finds" – via www.theguardian.com.
- "Plaid: Stay in EU to solve its problems". BBC. 10 February 2016. Archived from the original on 31 May 2018. Retrieved 21 June 2018.
- "Welsh Senedd votes to back a People's Vote". Plaid Cymru (The Party of Wales). Archived from the original on 12 January 2020.
- "Plaid Cymru: European Election Manifesto 2019" (PDF). Retrieved 26 May 2019.
A vote for Plaid Cymru in the European elections on 23 May will be a vote for Wales to stay inside the European Union
- Mosalski, Ruth (26 April 2019). "'Wales should have an independence vote' say Plaid Cymru". Wales Online. Retrieved 5 April 2020.
- Awan-Scully, Roger (5 June 2020). "With Welsh independence polling higher than ever it is no longer a fringe movement". Nation.Cymru.
- ""Possible" Senedd elections may not happen next May says health minister". ITV News. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
- Williams, James (29 June 2020). "Covid-19 impact on 2021 election to be discussed". BBC News. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
- "Wales' First Minister Carwyn Jones to leave assembly in 2021". BBC News. 11 May 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
- "Wales' Welsh Conservative David Melding to stand down at 2021 Senedd election". BBC News. 28 February 2020. Retrieved 28 February 2020.
- "Lord Elis-Thomas vows not to stand in 2021 election". BBC News. 12 April 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020.
- "Sarah Murphy 🌹 (@sarah4bridgend) | Twitter". twitter.com.
- "Dr Thomas, who was chosen as the Plaid Cymru candidate to fight the Carmarthen West and South Pembs constituency at UK and Welsh level". Tenby Today. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
- "Plaid Cymru pick Gwynfor Evans' grandson to contest Dwyfor Meirionnydd". BBC News. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
- "Plaid Cymru announce Rhys Mills as candidate for Islwyn". South Wales Argus. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
- "Helen Mary Jones selected as Plaid-Cymru's Llanelli candidate". Llanelli Online. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
- "Parties begin selection process for 2021 Senedd Election". Oggy Blog Ogwr. Retrieved 13 May 2020.