Opinion_polling_for_the_1979_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion polling for the 1979 United Kingdom general election

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In the run-up to the 1979 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the October general election until 3 May 1979.

National Poll Results

All data is from UK Polling Report.^[1]

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[1] [1]
"UK Polling Report". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 16 December 2019.

[2] [2]
Aikten, Ian (29 March 1979). "Labour fall by one vote". The Guardian.

[3] [3]
Jenkins, Peter (15 February 1979). "Pay later deal in Callaghan's survival kit". The Guardian.

[4] [4]
Aikten, Ian; Harper, Keith (15 December 1978). "Callaghan home by 10 Votes". The Guardian.

[5] [5]
Aikten, Ian (8 September 1978). "Callaghan gambles on finding new Allies". The Guardian.

[6] [6]
Jordan, Philip (5 May 1978). "Labour slips in London after gains in North". The Guardian.

[7] [7]
Hetherington, Peter (4 May 1977). "Big gains for SNP but Glasgow is split". The Guardian.

[8] [8]
Jordan, Philip (6 May 1977). "Massive swing gives Tories the cities". The Guardian.

[9] [9]
McHardy, Anne; Wainwright, Martin (19 May 1977). "Shots fired in Ulster poll". The Guardian.

[10] [10]
"Joint Statement on the Lib-Lab Pact: Steel and Callaghan – Liberal History". Liberal History. 24 March 1977. Retrieved 16 July 2021.

[11] [11]
Aikten, Ian (24 March 1977). "Liberal deal strains Left". The Guardian.

[12] [12]
Hoggart, Simon (8 July 1976). "Smith snub victor Steel". The Guardian.

[13] [13]
Lewis, James (7 May 1976). "Tories gain – but no landslide". The Guardian.

[14] [14]
Aikten, Ian (6 April 1976). "Callaghan puts his trust in the people". The Guardian.

[15] [15]
McKie, David (7 June 1975). "Anatomy of a Landslide". The Guardian.

[16] [16]
Johnson, Dennis (2 May 1975). "Tories weaken Labour grip". The Guardian.

[17] [17]
Aikten, Ian (12 February 1975). "First lady will put Tories right". The Guardian.

[18] [18]
Parry, Gareth (12 February 2015). "From the archive, 12 February 1975: Dreamy, says Thatcher, the new chief Tory". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 July 2021.

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Survey end date	Pollster	Client	Lab	Con	Lib	Lead
Survey end date	Pollster	Client				Lead
3 May	1979 general election		36.9%	43.9%	13.8%	7%
2 May	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	38.5%	49%	9%	10.5%
2 May	NOP	Daily Mail	39%	46%	12.5%	7%
2 May	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	43%	13.5%	2%
2 May	MORI	Evening Standard	37%	45%	15%	8%
1 May	MORI	Daily Express	38.8%	44.4%	13.5%	5.6%
1 May	Marplan	The Sun	38.5%	45%	9%	6.5%
30 Apr	NOP	Daily Mail	43.1%	42.4%	12.2%	0.7%
26 Apr	MORI	Daily Express	41%	44%	12%	3%
25 Apr	Gallup	The Sunday Telegraph	40%	48%	10.5%	8%
25 Apr	Research Srv	The Observer	38%	49.5%	10%	11.5%
25 Apr	Marplan	The Sun	40%	48%	10%	8%
23 Apr	MORI	Daily Express	40%	46%	11%	6%
21 Apr	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41.5%	46.5%	10%	5%
19 Apr	Marplan	The Sun	40%	50%	9%	10%
18 Apr	Gallup	The Sunday Telegraph	42%	47.5%	9%	5.5%
18 Apr	Marplan	The Sun	41%	51%	6%	10%
18 Apr	Research Srv	The Observer	34%	54%	9.5%	20%
17 Apr	MORI	Daily Express	38%	50%	10%	12%
14 Apr	NOP	Daily Mail	42%	48%	8%	6%
11 Apr	Research Srv	The Observer	37%	53%	8%	16%
9 Apr	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	40%	50%	8%	10%
9 Apr	MORI	Daily Express	39%	49%	10%	10%
7 Apr	The Dissolution of the 47th Parliament and campaigning officially begins
4 Apr	Research Srv	The Observer	33.5%	54.5%	9%	21%
3 Apr	NOP	Daily Mail	42%	48%	8%	6%
2 Apr	MORI	Daily Express	38%	51%	10%	13%
29 Mar	MORI	Thames	42%	51%	5%	9%
29 Mar	Liverpool Edge Hill by-election
28 Mar	The vote of no confidence in the Callaghan ministry passes^[2]
28 Mar	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	40.5%	47.5%	9%	7%
12 Mar	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	37%	51.5%	8.5%	14.5%
5 Mar	MORI	N/A	39%	52%	7%	13%
1 Mar	Knutsford and Clitheroe by-elections
14 Feb	The Winter of Discontent ends following negotiations with the TUC^[3]
12 Feb	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	33%	53%	11%	20%
8 Feb	NOP	N/A	40.7%	49%	7.4%	8.3%
1 Feb	MORI	N/A	36%	55%	6%	19%
15 Jan	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41.5%	49%	6%	7.5%
4 Jan	NOP	N/A	49.1%	42.5%	5.7%	6.6%

Survey end date	Pollster	Client	Lab	Con	Lib	Lead
Survey end date	Pollster	Client				Lead
14 Dec	The Callaghan ministry survives a vote of no confidence^[4]
11 Dec	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	42.5%	48%	6%	5.5%
7 Dec	NOP	N/A	47.9%	44.7%	4.6%	3.2%
13 Nov	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	48%	43%	6.5%	5%
9 Nov	NOP	N/A	46.8%	44.8%	6.2%	2%
8 Nov	MORI	N/A	46%	47%	5%	1%
26 Oct	Pontefract and Castleford & Berwick and East Lothian by-elections
23 Oct	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	47.5%	42%	7.5%	5.5%
12 Oct	NOP	N/A	48.5%	44.2%	4.7%	4.3%
11 Sep	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	42.5%	49.5%	6%	7%
11 Sep	MORI	N/A	42%	48%	8%	6%
7 Sep	The Lib-Lab pact ends^[5]
5 Sep	NOP	N/A	45.8%	48%	4.8%	2.2%
4 Sep	MORI	N/A	45%	47%	5%	2%
14 Aug	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	47.5%	43.5%	6%	4%
14 Aug	MORI	N/A	44%	47%	6%	3%
9 Aug	NOP	N/A	48.5%	42.4%	6.3%	6.1%
17 Jul	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	43%	45%	8.5%	2%
13 Jul	Penistone & Manchester Moss Side by-elections
11 Jul	MORI	N/A	41%	49%	6%	8%
5 Jul	NOP	N/A	44.4%	46.5%	6.3%	2.1%
30 Jun	MORI	N/A	42%	48%	6%	6%
14 Jun	NOP	N/A	42.3%	49.1%	6.3%	6.8%
13 Jun	MORI	N/A	45%	46%	6%	1%
12 Jun	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	45.5%	45.5%	6%	Tie
31 May	Hamilton by-election
24 May	MORI	N/A	46%	45%	6%	1%
15 May	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	43.5%	43.5%	8.5%	Tie
9 May	NOP	N/A	48%	43.1%	7%	4.9%
2–4 May	1978 local elections^[6]
27 Apr	Wycombe & Epsom and Ewell by-elections
20 Apr	Lambeth Central by-election
17 Apr	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	43.5%	45.5%	7.5%	2%
13 Apr	MORI	N/A	44%	46%	7%	2%
13 Apr	Glasgow Garscadden by-election
12 Apr	NOP	N/A	44.5%	46.2%	6.6%	1.7%
20 Mar	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	48%	8%	7%
8 Mar	NOP	N/A	45.6%	44.6%	7.3%	1%
2 Mar	Ilford North by election
15 Feb	NOP	N/A	44.6%	45.3%	7.1%	0.7%
13 Feb	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	39%	48%	9%	9%
18 Jan	NOP		45.5%	44%	7.5%	1.5%
16 Jan	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	43.5%	43.5%	8.5%	Tie

Survey end date	Pollster	Client	Lab	Con	Lib	Lead
Survey end date	Pollster	Client				Lead
14 Dec	NOP	N/A	48.8%	40.8%	7%	8%
12 Dec	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	44.5%	44%	8%	0.5%
7 Dec	NOP	N/A	44.1%	44.6%	7.5%	0.5%
30 Nov	NOP	N/A	47.5%	43.2%	6.3%	4.3%
24 Nov	Bournemouth East by election
23 Nov	NOP	N/A	44.3%	46.7%	6.2%	2.4%
16 Nov	NOP	N/A	48.5%	42.5%	6.2%	6%
14 Nov	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	42%	45.5%	8.5%	3.5%
9 Nov	NOP	N/A	44.1%	45.5%	7%	1.4%
26 Oct	NOP	N/A	43%	46.7%	6.9%	3.7%
26 Oct	MORI	N/A	44%	45%	7%	1%
24 Oct	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	45%	45%	8%	Tie
19 Oct	NOP	N/A	45.8%	44.1%	7.3%	1.7%
22 Sep	MORI	N/A	42%	49%	5%	7%
14 Sep	NOP	N/A	41.8%	48%	7.3%	6.2%
12 Sep	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	45.5%	8.5%	4.5%
18 Aug	Birmingham Ladywood by election
15 Aug	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	37.5%	48.5%	9%	11%
10 Aug	NOP	N/A	38.2%	51.3%	7.1%	13.1%
18 Jul	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	34.5%	49%	10.5%	14.5%
13 Jul	NOP	N/A	35.1%	53.1%	8.4%	18%
7 Jul	Saffron Walden by election
22 Jun	NOP	N/A	37.1%	49.1%	10.8%	12%
13 Jun	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	37%	47.5%	10.5%	10.5%
16 May	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	33%	53.5%	8.5%	20.5%
11 May	NOP	N/A	36.9%	52.9%	7.2%	16%
3–18 May	1977 local elections^[7]^[8]^[9]
2 May	NOP	N/A	41%	48.3%	6.6%	7.3%
28 Apr	Grimsby & Ashfield by-elections
20 Apr	NOP	N/A	38.3%	49.4%	9.1%	11.1%
18 Apr	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	33.5%	49%	11.5%	15.5%
31 Mar	Birmingham Stechford by-election
23 Mar	NOP	N/A	35.7%	50.9%	9.7%	15.2%
23 Mar	The Lib–Lab pact is formed^[10]^[11]
14 Mar	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	33%	49.5%	13%	16.5%
28 Feb	MORI	N/A	38%	47%	12%	9%
24 Feb	City of London and Westminster South by-election
23 Feb	NOP	N/A	37.4%	47.3%	10.9%	9.9%
16 Feb	NOP	N/A	36.1%	50.2%	10%	14.1%
14 Feb	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	33.5%	46%	14%	12.5%
26 Jan	NOP	N/A	36.8%	48.4%	10.2%	11.6%
17 Jan	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	34%	47%	14.5%	13%
2 Jan	NOP	N/A	35.1%	50%	11.2%	14.9%

Survey end date	Pollster	Client	Lab	Con	Lib	Lead
Survey end date	Pollster	Client				Lead
14 Dec	NOP	N/A	38.4%	47.9%	10.6%	9.5%
2 Dec	Cambridge by-election
13 Dec	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	34%	49.5%	11.5%	15.5%
28 Nov	NOP	N/A	31.3%	55.2%	9.4%	23.9%
15 Nov	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	30%	55%	11.5%	25%
7 Nov	NOP	N/A	38.2%	49.3%	9.3%	11.1%
4 Nov	Workington, Walsall North and Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central by-elections
18 Oct	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	36.5%	48%	11.5%	11.5%
17 Oct	NOP	N/A	34.9%	53.4%	8.3%	18.5%
10 Oct	NOP	N/A	35.9%	50.7%	9.5%	14.8%
26 Sep	NOP	N/A	39.6%	45.6%	9.9%	6%
20 Sep	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	42%	42.5%	11%	0.5%
12 Sep	NOP	N/A	40.5%	46.5%	9.1%	6%
22 Aug	NOP	N/A	43.3%	43.9%	9.3%	0.6%
16 Aug	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	44%	10%	3%
18 Jul	NOP	N/A	43.5%	43.6%	8.7%	0.1%
15 Jul	Thurrock by-election
12 Jul	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	41%	13%	Tie
11 Jul	NOP	N/A	44.1%	42.1%	9.5%	2%
7 Jul	David Steel is elected leader of the Liberal Party^[12]
24 Jun	Rotherham by-election
14 Jun	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	40.5%	44%	11%	3.5%
10 Jun	NOP	N/A	41.2%	45.8%	8.8%	4.6%
23 May	NOP	N/A	43%	44.7%	8.3%	1.7%
17 May	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	44%	10.5%	3%
16 May	NOP	N/A	41.5%	46.5%	8.3%	5%
6 May	1976 local elections^[13]
28 Apr	NOP	N/A	46.1%	41.7%	8.4%	4.4%
12 Apr	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	46.5%	41%	9%	5.5%
11 Apr	NOP	N/A	44.7%	43.6%	9%	1.1%
9 Apr	MORI	N/A	46%	40%	10%	6%
5 Apr	James Callaghan is elected leader of the Labour Party and becomes Prime Minister^[14]
19 Mar	MORI	N/A	47%	40%	9%	7%
15 Mar	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41.5%	44%	9.5%	2.5%
14 Mar	NOP	N/A	41.7%	46%	8.8%	4.3%
11 Mar	Wirral & Carshalton by-elections
4 Mar	Coventry North West by-election
16 Feb	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	40.5%	45.5%	10.5%	5%
25 Jan	NOP	N/A	42.8%	42%	11.3%	0.8%
22 Jan	NOP	N/A	40.5%	43.9%	11.4%	3.4%
19 Jan	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	42%	40.5%	14%	1.5%

Survey end date	Pollster	Client	Lab	Con	Lib	Lead
Survey end date	Pollster	Client				Lead
16 Dec	NOP	N/A	38.3%	45.4%	11.7%	7.1%
16 Dec	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	40.5%	14%	0.5%
30 Nov	NOP	N/A	37.4%	44.5%	14.9%	7.1%
17 Nov	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	44.5%	39%	12.5%	5.5%
16 Nov	NOP	N/A	41.2%	43.6%	12.7%	2.4%
30 Oct	NOP	N/A	41.5%	43.4%	11.8%	1.9%
20 Oct	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	40.5%	42.5%	13.5%	2%
22 Sep	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41.5%	38.5%	16.5%	3%
7 Sep	NOP	N/A	40.8%	45.7%	10.3%	4.9%
18 Aug	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	42%	40.5%	14%	1.5%
17 Aug	NOP	N/A	40.3%	44.4%	11.6%	4.1%
14 Jul	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	40.5%	43%	12.5%	2.5%
29 Jun	NOP	N/A	37.2%	48.8%	10.4%	11.6%
26 Jun	Woolwich West by-election
16 Jun	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	40.5%	44%	13%	3.5%
5 Jun	The United Kingdom votes "Yes" to staying in the European Community^[15]
1 Jun	NOP	N/A	43.6%	42%	10.7%	1.6%
19 May	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	39.5%	45.5%	11%	6%
11 May	NOP	N/A	40.2%	42.9%	13%	2.7%
1 May	1975 local elections^[16]
27 Apr	NOP	N/A	43.5%	42.4%	10.9%	1.1%
14 Apr	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	45%	43%	10%	2%
6 Apr	NOP	N/A	43.3%	44.8%	9.1%	1.5%
17 Mar	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	44%	42%	11%	2%
2 Mar	NOP	N/A	46.4%	40.8%	10.3%	5.6%
17 Feb	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	41%	45%	11%	4%
11 Feb	Margaret Thatcher is elected leader of the Conservative Party^[17]^[18]
9 Feb	NOP	N/A	46%	38.6%	11.1%	7.4%
2 Feb	NOP	N/A	43.8%	38.1%	14.6%	5.7%
19 Jan	NOP	N/A	47.8%	32.4%	15.9%	15.4%
13 Jan	Gallup	The Daily Telegraph	48.5%	34%	13%	14.5%

Opinion_polling_for_the_1979_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion polling for the 1979 United Kingdom general election

Graphical summaries

National Poll Results

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

1974

References

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