Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election


In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.

Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but Brown eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Brown has since claimed that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.[1][2]

In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader after the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.

2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse effect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MPs from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally at the 2009 European Parliament election,[3] and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.

On 6 April 2010, Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May, Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making Clegg deputy prime minister.

Background


Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP–Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.[4]

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[5] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[6][7][8]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Polling since 2005


Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour Party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December, the Conservative Party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader.[9]

In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. This was the first consistent lead of the opinion polls that the Conservatives had enjoyed for 14 years.

Labour regained the lead in June 2007, following the resignation of Tony Blair as prime minister and the selection of Gordon Brown as his successor. Brown resisted calls from his party to hold a general election, despite opinion polls suggesting that Labour was capable of being re-elected at this stage. From November 2007, however, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2008 and again in late 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return - scenario which could have allowed Labour to cling onto power in a minority or coalition government.[10]

From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives by a narrow margin which was unprecedented in the period since the Lib Dems were founded in 1988. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.[11]

After the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament, and therefore it still appeared possible that Labour might remain in power as the main party in a minority or coalition government.

Exit poll


At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[12] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[13]

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[14] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.

A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[13]

Graphical summaries


  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  UKIP
  BNP
  SNP
  Green
  Respect


The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.

The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period April 11 – May 6, 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.

Poll results


Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.

Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.

2010

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
2010 general election 6 May29.7%36.9%23.6%9.8%7.2%
Ipsos MORI Evening Standard 5 May1,21629%36%27%8%7%
YouGov The Sun 4–5 May6,48328%35%28%9%7%
Harris Interactive Daily Mail 4–5 May4,01429%35%27%7%6%
Populus The Times 4–5 May2,50528%37%27%8%9%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 4–5 May2,28324%36%29%11%7%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 4–5 May1,38327%35%26%12%8%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
4–5 May1,02528%37%28%7%9%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 3–4 May1,52728%36%26%10%8%
YouGov The Sun 3–4 May1,46130%35%24%11%5%
TNS-BMRB N/A 29 Apr–4 May1,86427%33%29%11%4%
Harris Interactive The Metro 28 Apr–4 May78626%36%28%10%8%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
2–3 May1,02429%37%26%8%8%
YouGov The Sun 2–3 May1,45528%35%28%9%7%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 30 Apr – 3 May1,87028%33%27%12%5%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sun 1–2 May1,47528%34%29%9%5%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
1–2 May1,02429%37%26%8%8%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 30 Apr – 2 May1,02628%33%28%12%5%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sunday Times 30 Apr – 1 May1,48327%35%28%10%7%
ComRes
Multiple
The Independent
Sunday Mirror
30 Apr – 1 May1,01928%38%25%9%10%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sun 30 Apr1,41228%34%28%10%6%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 30 Apr1,01929%36%27%8%7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion Sunday Express 29–30 Apr1,87423%35%29%13%6%
29 Apr The third Prime Ministerial debate
YouGov The Sun 28–29 Apr1,62327%34%28%11%6%
YouGov The Sun 27–28 Apr1,53027%34%31%8%3%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sun 26–27 Apr1,59829%33%28%10%4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
26–27 Apr1,00629%36%26%9%7%
Populus The Times 26–27 Apr1,51027%36%28%8%8%
TNS-BMRB N/A 21–27 Apr2,07827%34%30%9%4%
YouGov The Sun 25–26 Apr1,49128%33%29%10%4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
25–26 Apr1,00529%33%29%9%4%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 23–26 Apr1,94225%34%28%13%6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion The Economist 23–26 Apr2,43323%33%30%14%3%
Harris Interactive The Metro 20–26 Apr1,67825%32%30%13%2%
YouGov The Sun 24–25 Apr1,46628%34%30%8%4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
24–25 Apr1,00328%32%31%9%1%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 23–25 Apr1,03128%33%30%8%3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 23–24 Apr1,41227%35%28%9%7%
ComRes
Multiple
The Independent on Sunday
Sunday Mirror
23–24 Apr1,00628%34%29%9%5%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 23 Apr1,02026%35%31%8%4%
Ipsos MOR News of the World 23 Apr1,24530%36%23%11%6%
YouGov The Sun 22–23 Apr1,38129%34%29%8%5%
22 Apr The second Prime Ministerial debate
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sun 21–22 Apr1,57629%34%28%9%5%
YouGov The Sun 20–21 Apr1,54527%33%31%9%2%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sun 19–20 Apr1,59526%31%34%9%3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 19–20 Apr1,95323%32%33%12%1%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
19–20 Apr1,01525%35%27%13%8%
Populus[permanent dead link] The Times 19–20 Apr1,50128%32%31%9%1%
Ipsos MORI Evening Standard 18–20 Apr1,25328%32%32%8%Tie
TNS-BMRB N/A 14–20 Apr1,95329%34%30%7%4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
18–19 Apr1,01226%35%26%13%9%
YouGov The Sun 18–19 Apr1,50927%33%31%8%2%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 16–19 Apr1,95726%32%29%13%3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 16–19 Apr2,00424%32%32%12%Tie
Harris Interactive The Metro 14–19 Apr1,79226%31%30%13%1%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
17–18 Apr1,00328%32%28%12%4%
YouGov The Sun 17–18 Apr1,43326%32%33%8%1%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 16–18 Apr1,02428%33%30%9%3%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sunday Times 16–17 Apr1,49030%33%29%8%3%
ComRes
Multiple
The Independent on Sunday
Sunday Mirror
16–17 Apr1,00627%31%29%13%2%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sun 15–16 Apr1,29028%33%30%9%3%
ComRes ITV News 15 Apr4,03228%35%24%13%7%
15 Apr The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 14–15 Apr1,03329%34%27%10%5%
YouGov The Sun 14–15 Apr1,49031%37%22%10%6%
YouGov The Sun 13–14 Apr1,57832%41%18%9%9%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
12–13 Apr1,00129%35%21%15%6%
YouGov The Sun 12–13 Apr1,58331%39%20%9%8%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] The Metro 8–13 Apr1,52327%36%23%14%9%
TNS-BMRB[permanent dead link] N/A 7–13 Apr1,91633%36%22%9%3%
Populus The Times 12 Apr1,52533%36%21%9%3%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
11–12 Apr1,00231%36%19%14%5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 11–12 Apr2,00628%38%22%12%10%
YouGov The Sun 11–12 Apr1,49333%39%20%8%6%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 9–12 Apr1,82531%39%17%13%8%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
10–11 Apr1,00430%37%20%13%7%
YouGov The Sun 10–11 Apr1,45531%37%20%12%6%
ICM The Guardian 9–11 Apr1,02431%37%20%11%6%
YouGov The Sunday Times 9–10 Apr1,43132%40%18%10%8%
ComRes-
Multiple
The Independent on Sunday
Sunday Mirror
9–10 Apr1,00132%39%16%13%7%
YouGov[permanent dead link] The Sun 8–9 Apr1,52730%40%20%10%10%
Harris Interactive Daily Mail 7–8 Apr1,01227%37%22%14%10%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 Apr1,62631%40%18%11%9%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 7 Apr1,03230%38%21%10%8%
YouGov The Sun 6–7 Apr1,48432%37%19%12%5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 6–7 Apr2,19326%37%22%14%11%
Populus The Times 6 Apr1,50732%39%21%8%7%
6 Apr Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces his intention to seek a general election to be held on 6 May 2010
YouGov The Sun 5–6 Apr1,45632%40%17%11%8%
Harris Interactive The Metro 31 Mar-6 Apr2,08028%37%20%15%9%
YouGov The Sun 4–5 Apr1,62031%41%18%11%10%
Opinium Daily Express 2–5 Apr1,90329%39%17%15%10%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 1–3 Apr1,00133%37%21%9%4%
YouGov The Sunday Times 1–2 Apr1,50329%39%20%12%10%
Angus Reid Public Opinion Sunday Express 31 Mar-1 Apr1,99127%38%20%15%11%
YouGov The Sun 31 Mar-1 Apr1,55231%39%19%11%8%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 30–31 Mar1,00329%38%23%10%9%
YouGov The Sun 30–31 Mar1,61532%38%19%11%6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 30–31 Mar2,01328%37%22%13%9%
YouGov The Sun 29–30 Mar1,68131%38%19%12%7%
TNS-BMRB N/A 24–30 Mar1,81933%38%19%10%5%
YouGov The Sun 28–29 Mar1,61432%39%18%11%7%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 26–29 Mar1,78028%38%18%16%10%
Harris Interactive The Metro 23–29 Mar1,13327%37%19%17%10%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 Mar1,00130%37%20%13%7%
YouGov The Sunday Times 25–26 Mar1,53332%37%19%13%5%
ICM[permanent dead link] News of the World 24–25 Mar1,00331%39%19%11%8%
YouGov The Sun 24–25 Mar1,48333%37%18%12%4%
YouGov The Sun 23–24 Mar1,55434%36%17%13%2%
YouGov The Sun 22–23 Mar1,75633%37%18%12%4%
YouGov The Sun 21–22 Mar1,56032%36%20%12%4%
Ipsos MORI Daily Mirror 19–22 Mar1,50330%35%21%14%5%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 19–22 Mar1,97530%37%15%18%7%
Harris Interactive The Metro 17–22 Mar2,11728%35%17%20%7%
YouGov The Sunday Times 18–19 Mar1,54731%38%19%13%7%
ICM[permanent dead link] News of the World 17–18 Mar1,00232%38%19%10%6%
YouGov The Sun 17–18 Mar1,67132%36%20%12%4%
YouGov The Sun 16–17 Mar1,67632%36%20%11%4%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 15–16 Mar2,00326%39%21%15%13%
YouGov The Sun 15–16 Mar1,46032%37%19%12%5%
Harris Interactive The Metro 10–16 Mar1,93428%36%18%18%8%
YouGov The Sun 14–15 Mar1,46632%37%21%10%5%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 12–15 Mar1,95128%39%16%17%11%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 12–14 Mar1,00231%40%20%9%9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 11–12 Mar1,50733%37%17%12%4%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 10–11 Mar1,00731%38%21%10%7%
YouGov The Sun 10–11 Mar1,43434%37%17%12%3%
YouGov The Sun 9–10 Mar1,47332%37%17%14%5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 9–10 Mar2,00326%39%18%17%13%
YouGov The Sun 8–9 Mar1,52432%36%20%12%4%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 Mar1,74734%39%16%11%5%
Opinium[permanent dead link] Daily Express 5–8 Mar1,96030%37%16%16%7%
Harris Interactive The Metro 3–8 Mar1,49829%37%18%16%8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 4–5 Mar1,55833%38%17%12%5%
ICM[permanent dead link] News of the World 3–4 Mar1,00531%40%18%11%9%
YouGov The Sun 3–4 Mar1,64032%38%17%13%6%
YouGov The Sun 2–3 Mar1,66132%38%19%12%6%
TNS-BMRB N/A 25 Feb – 3 Mar1,97331%39%19%11%8%
YouGov The Sun 1–2 Mar1,47933%38%16%13%5%
YouGov The Sun 28 Feb-1 Mar1,50532%39%17%12%7%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 Feb1,00532%37%19%12%5%
YouGov The Sunday Times 25–26 Feb1,43635%37%17%11%2%
YouGov The Sun 24–25 Feb1,47233%39%16%12%6%
YouGov The Sun 23–24 Feb1,47332%38%19%10%6%
TNS-BMRB N/A 18–24 Feb1,95432%36%21%12%4%
YouGov The Sun 22–23 Feb1,46932%38%17%12%6%
YouGov The Sun 21–22 Feb1,57833%39%17%12%6%
Ipsos MORI The Daily Telegraph 19–22 Feb1,53332%37%19%12%5%
Harris Interative The Metro 16–22 Feb91830%39%22%9%9%
ICM The Guardian 19–21 Feb1,00430%37%20%13%7%
YouGov The Sunday Times 18–19 Feb1,47233%39%17%11%6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 16–19 Feb4,00426%38%19%16%12%
YouGov The Sun 17–18 Feb1,55832%39%18%11%7%
ComRes Theos 16–17 Feb1,08530%38%20%11%8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 16–17 Feb2,00226%40%18%16%14%
YouGov The Sun 16–17 Feb2,14530%39%18%13%9%
ComRes The Independent 10–11 Feb1,00929%40%21%10%11%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 9–10 Feb2,00225%38%20%16%13%
Populus The Times 5–7 Feb1,50230%40%20%11%10%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 3–4 Feb1,00130%39%20%11%9%
ComRes The Independent 29–31 Jan1,00131%38%19%12%7%
BPIX[15] Mail on Sunday 29–30 Jan1,52430%39%18%13%9%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 28–29 Jan2,05431%38%19%12%7%
YouGov The People 26–28 Jan2,04431%40%18%11%9%
Ipsos MORI Daily Mirror 26–28 Jan1,00132%40%16%12%8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 26–27 Jan2,00424%40%19%16%16%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 22–24 Jan1,00029%40%21%10%11%
ComRes Sunday Mirror 20–21 Jan1,00429%38%19%14%9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 Jan2,03331%40%18%11%9%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 13–14 Jan1,00529%42%19%10%13%
Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link] PoliticalBetting.com 9–10 Jan2,01024%40%20%17%16%
Populus The Times 8–10 Jan1,50928%41%19%12%13%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 6–7 Jan1,00330%40%18%12%10%
YouGov The Sun 6–7 Jan2,83230%42%16%12%12%
YouGov The Sun 5–6 Jan4,16731%40%17%12%9%

2009

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 29–30 Dec1,84830%40%17%12%10%
ComRes The Independent 19–20 Dec1,00629%38%19%14%9%
Angus Reid Strategies PoliticalBetting.com 16–18 Dec2,01024%40%20%15%16%
YouGov The People 15–17 Dec2,05228%40%18%14%12%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 11–13 Dec1,00931%40%18%11%9%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 11–13 Dec1,01726%43%20%12%17%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Dec2,04431%40%16%13%9%
ComRes[permanent dead link] The Independent on Sunday 9–10 Dec1,00124%41%21%14%17%
Angus Reid Strategies PoliticalBetting.com 8–10 Dec2,00223%40%19%19%17%
Populus The Times 4–6 Dec1,50530%38%20%12%8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 3–4 Dec2,09527%40%18%15%13%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 2–3 Dec1,00129%40%19%12%11%
ComRes The Independent 27–29 Nov1,00327%37%20%16%10%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–26 Nov2,00429%39%19%13%10%
Angus Reid Strategies PoliticalBetting.com 20–23 Nov2,00422%39%21%18%17%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 13–15 Nov1,00631%37%17%13%6%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 13–15 Nov1,01029%42%19%10%13%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 Nov2,02627%41%18%14%14%
12 Nov Glasgow North East by-election
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 11–12 Nov1,00725%39%17%19%14%
Populus The Times 6–8 Nov1,50429%39%18%14%10%
Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link] PoliticalBetting.com 4–6 Nov2,00024%38%20%17%14%
YouGov Channel 4 News 4–5 Nov1,02127%41%17%16%14%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 28–29 Oct1,00725%42%21%13%17%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 Oct2,02428%41%16%15%13%
ComRes The Independent 23–25 Oct1,00427%40%18%15%13%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–23 Oct1,31427%40%19%14%13%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 16–18 Oct1,00227%44%18%11%17%
Ipsos MORI N/A 16–18 Oct99626%43%19%11%17%
Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link] PoliticalBetting.com 15–16 Oct2,07723%40%20%15%17%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 Oct2,02530%41%17%12%11%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 14–15 Oct1,00828%40%19%13%12%
Populus The Times 9–11 Oct1,50930%40%18%12%10%
YouGov The Sun 8–9 Oct2,16128%42%18%12%14%
YouGov Sky News 8–9 Oct1,06427%44%17%12%17%
ICM News of the World 7–9 Oct1,00826%45%18%10%19%
YouGov Sky News 7–8 Oct1,07431%40%18%11%9%
YouGov Sky News 6–7 Oct1,03929%43%17%11%14%
YouGov Sky News 5–6 Oct1,22328%41%18%13%13%
YouGov Sky News 4–5 Oct1,10227%40%20%13%13%
YouGov The People 3 Oct2,02728%40%18%14%12%
YouGov Sky News 1–2 Oct1,05329%41%17%13%12%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 30 Sep-1 Oct1,02228%40%19%13%12%
YouGov Sky News 30 Sep-1 Oct1,08526%40%20%15%14%
YouGov Sky News 29–30 Sep1,07830%37%21%12%7%
YouGov Sky News 28–29 Sep1,02429%40%18%13%11%
YouGov Sky News 27–28 Sep1,05129%39%20%13%10%
Ipsos MORI N/A 25–27 Sep1,00324%36%25%15%11%
ComRes The Independent 25–27 Sep1,00323%38%23%16%15%
YouGov Sky News 24–25 Sep1,05924%40%21%14%16%
YouGov Sky News 23–24 Sep1,05725%38%23%14%13%
ICM News of the World 23–24 Sep1,00326%40%23%11%14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–24 Sep2,02626%39%20%15%13%
YouGov Sky News 22–23 Sep1,03628%38%19%15%10%
YouGov Sky News 21–22 Sep1,06227%39%20%13%12%
YouGov Sky News 20–21 Sep1,08130%39%17%14%9%
ICM The Guardian 18–20 Sep1,00126%43%19%12%17%
Populus The Times 11–13 Sep1,50627%41%18%14%14%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Sep2,00927%41%17%15%14%
ComRes The Independent 4–6 Sep1,00524%40%21%15%16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 4–6 Sep1,57327%40%18%15%13%
YouGov The Sun 27–28 Aug1,99628%42%17%14%14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 25–27 Aug2,19926%42%18%14%16%
Ipsos MORI N/A 21–23 Aug1,01326%43%17%13%17%
ICM The Guardian 21–23 Aug1,00425%41%19%14%16%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 19–20 Aug1,01324%41%18%16%17%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Aug2,00728%42%18%13%14%
ICM/Sunday Mirror Sunday Mirror 12–13 Aug1,00526%43%19%12%17%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 28–30 July2,33427%41%18%15%14%
ComRes The Independent 24–26 July1,00824%42%18%16%18%
23 July Norwich North by-election
YouGov The People 21–23 July2,21825%40%20%16%15%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–19 July1,01224%40%18%18%16%
Populus The Times 17–19 July1,50426%38%20%16%12%
YouGov The Sunday Times 16–17 July1,95625%42%18%15%17%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 15–16 July1,01023%38%22%16%15%
ICM The Guardian 10–11 July1,00027%41%20%12%14%
YouGov Fabian Society 1–3 July2,00126%39%19%17%13%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 June1,00725%36%19%20%11%
YouGov The People 24–26 June2,01724%40%17%19%16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 June2,23325%38%18%19%13%
Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link] N/A 19–21 June1,00421%38%19%23%17%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 17–18 June1,01222%39%18%21%17%
Harris Interative The Metro 10–17 June2,08120%35%16%29%15%
Ipsos MORI UNISON 12–14 June1,25225%39%19%17%14%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 12–14 June1,00627%39%18%15%12%
YouGov The Sunday Times 11–12 June1,90224%40%18%19%16%
Populus The Times 9–10 June1,00124%36%19%21%12%
8 June 2009 European Parliament election
ComRes The Independent 5–7 June1,00122%38%20%20%16%
5 June 2009 United Kingdom local elections
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 2–3 June4,01421%37%19%23%16%
ComRes The Independent 29–31 May1,00522%30%18%30%8%
Ipsos MORI 29–31 May1,00118%40%18%24%22%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 May5,01622%39%18%21%17%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 27–28 May1,01322%40%25%13%15%
Populus The Times 27–28 May1,00121%41%15%23%20%
Populus ITV News 19–20 May1,00027%39%17%18%12%
ICM The Guardian 15–17 May1,00228%39%20%14%11%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 14–16 May2,23523%39%19%19%16%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 13–14 May1,01021%40%18%21%19%
YouGov The Sun 13–14 May1,81422%41%19%18%19%
Populus The Times 8–10 May1,50426%39%22%13%13%
BPIX[15] Mail on Sunday 8–9 MayUnknown[15]23%45%17%15%22%
YouGov The Sunday Times 7–8 May2,20927%43%18%12%16%
ComRes The Independent 24–26 April1,00326%45%17%12%19%
YouGov/Sunday People Sunday People 23–24 April1,85527%45%17%12%18%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–23 April1,89627%45%18%10%18%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–19 April1,01128%41%22%9%13%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 17–19 April1,00530%40%19%11%10%
Marketing Sciences The Sunday Telegraph 15–16 April1,00726%43%21%10%17%
Populus The Times 3–5 April1,51230%43%18%9%13%
YouGov The Sunday Times 3–4 April2,12534%41%16%10%7%
ComRes The Independent 27–29 March1,00228%40%18%14%12%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 25–26 March1,00331%44%18%8%13%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–26 March2,10431%41%17%11%10%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 18–19 March1,00230%41%17%12%11%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 13–15 March1,00430%42%20%8%12%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–15 March1,00732%42%14%11%10%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 March1,84031%41%17%11%10%
Populus The Times 6–8 March1,50430%42%19%9%12%
ComRes The Independent 27 Feb-1 Mar1,00628%44%17%12%16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–26 Feb2,06331%41%15%12%10%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 20–22 Feb1,00430%42%18%10%12%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–15 Feb1,00128%48%17%7%20%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 Feb1,71132%44%14%10%12%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 11–12 Feb1,00225%41%22%12%16%
Populus The Times 6–8 Feb1,50428%42%18%12%14%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 4–5 Feb1,01028%40%22%10%12%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 Jan2,33832%43%16%10%11%
ICM The Guardian 23–25 Jan1,00332%44%16%8%12%
ComRes The Independent 21–22 Jan1,01228%43%16%13%15%
Ipsos MORI N/A 16–18 Jan1,00530%44%17%9%14%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 Jan2,07732%45%14%9%13%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 14–15 Jan1,00932%41%15%12%9%
Populus The Times 9–11 Jan1,50033%43%15%9%10%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 Jan1,83534%41%15%10%7%

2008

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
ComRes The Independent 19–21 Dec1,00034%39%16%11%5%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 16–18 Dec2,24135%42%14%9%7%
Ipsos MORI N/A 12–14 Dec1,00035%39%15%11%4%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 12–14 Dec1,00333%38%19%10%5%
YouGov The Sunday Times 11–12 Dec2,09835%41%15%10%6%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 10–11 Dec1,00336%37%14%12%1%
Ipsos MORI N/A 10–11 Dec1,00736%41%11%12%5%
Populus The Times 5–7 Dec1,50535%39%17%9%4%
ComRes The Independent 28–30 Nov1,00536%37%17%10%1%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 27–28 Nov1,01732%43%15%10%11%
ICM The Guardian 25–26 Nov1,02730%45%18%7%15%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–25 Nov1,55636%40%14%10%4%
ICM[permanent dead link] Sunday Mirror 19–20 Nov1,01031%42%19%8%11%
Ipsos MORI N/A 14–16 Nov1,00237%40%12%11%3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Nov2,08036%41%14%10%5%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 12–13 Nov1,01032%43%12%13%11%
Populus The Times 7–9 Nov1,50335%41%16%8%6%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 5–6 Nov1,00530%43%18%9%13%
6 Nov Glenrothes by-election
BPIX[15] N/A 2 NovP ?31%45%13%11%14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 Oct2,27133%42%15%10%9%
ComRes The Independent 24–26 Oct1,00131%39%16%14%8%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–19 Oct1,00430%45%14%11%15%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 17–19 Oct1,00730%42%21%7%12%
BPIX[15] N/A 16–18 Oct2,04630%46%13%11%16%
YouGov The Daily Mirror 15–17 Oct2,02934%42%14%10%8%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 15–16 Oct1,00531%40%16%14%9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 9–10 Oct1,94133%43%14%10%10%
Populus The Times 3–5 Oct1,50330%45%15%10%15%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 1–3 Oct2,04831%45%15%9%14%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 Sep1,01729%41%18%12%12%
BPIX[15] N/A 24–26 Sep2,02031%43%17%9%12%
ICM The Guardian 24–25 Sep1,01232%41%18%9%9%
YouGov The Sun 23–24 Sep1,53631%41%16%12%10%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 17–18 Sep1,01027%39%21%12%12%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 17–19 Sep2,22724%44%20%12%20%
Ipsos MORI N/A 12–14 Sep1,01724%52%12%12%28%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–12 Sep2,16127%46%16%11%19%
ComRes The Independent 3–4 Sep1,01325%44%17%14%19%
Populus The Times 29–31 Aug1,50627%43%18%12%16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–27 Aug2,26726%45%16%13%19%
ComRes The Independent 20–21 Aug1,01425%46%16%13%21%
ICM The Guardian 15–17 Aug1,00229%44%19%8%15%
Ipsos MORI N/A 15–17 Aug1,00524%48%16%12%24%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 Aug1,74525%45%18%12%20%
YouGov News of the World 6–8 Aug2,03126%46%17%11%20%
BPIX[15] N/A 31 Jul – 2 Aug1,33324%47%16%13%23%
ICM Sunday Express 30 Jul – 1 Aug1,00129%45%16%10%16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 29–31 July1,94925%47%16%12%22%
Populus The Times 25–27 July1,00227%43%18%12%16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 July2,12026%45%17%12%19%
ComRes The Independent 23–24 July1,02124%46%18%12%22%
24 July Glasgow East by-election
Ipsos MORI N/A 18–20 July1,01627%47%15%11%20%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 18–20 July1,00728%43%19%10%15%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 16–17 July1,01624%45%16%15%21%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 July1,83225%47%16%12%22%
Populus The Times 4–6 July1,50728%41%19%12%13%
ComRes The Independent 25–26 June1,00725%46%18%11%21%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 June2,16328%46%15%11%18%
26 June Henley by-election
ICM The Guardian 20–22 June1,00025%45%20%10%20%
BPIX[15] N/A 18–20 June2,38526%49%14%11%23%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–15 June1,01228%45%16%11%17%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 11–12 June1,01226%44%17%13%18%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 June1,76925%47%18%10%22%
Populus The Times 6–8 June1,50825%45%20%10%20%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 4–5 June1,02326%42%21%11%16%
ComRes The Independent 30 May-1 June1,00630%44%16%10%14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 May2,24123%47%18%12%24%
22 May Crewe and Nantwich by-election
ICM The Guardian 16–18 May1,00827%41%22%10%14%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 May1,85425%45%18%12%20%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 14–15 May1,00426%43%19%12%17%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 May1,57123%49%17%11%26%
Populus The Times 2–4 May1,50929%40%19%11%11%
1 May 2008 United Kingdom local elections
ComRes[permanent dead link] The Independent 25–27 Apr1,00526%40%20%14%14%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 23–24 Apr1,01029%39%20%12%10%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–23 Apr2,07326%44%17%13%18%
Ipsos-MORI The Observer 17–22 Apr1,05931%40%19%10%9%
ICM/The Gurdian N/A 18–20 Apr1,00034%39%19%8%5%
Populus Sunday Mirror 16–17 Apr1,00630%40%19%11%10%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Apr1,75528%44%17%11%16%
Populus The Times 8–10 Apr1,50233%39%17%6%6%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 2–3 Apr1,01032%43%18%7%11%
ComRes The Independent 28–30 Mar1,00431%38%17%14%7%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 25–27 Mar1,92629%43%17%11%14%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–18 Mar1,98335%40%18%7%5%
ICM The Guardian 14–16 Mar1,00329%42%21%8%13%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Mar2,31127%43%16%13%16%
ICM[permanent dead link] News of the World 12–13 Mar1,00231%40%20%9%9%
Populus The Times 7–9 Mar1,50234%37%19%10%3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 25–27 Feb2,01133%40%16%11%7%
Ipsos MORI N/A 21–26 Feb2,06337%39%16%8%2%
ComRes The Independent 22–24 Feb1,01030%41%17%12%11%
YouGov/The Economist The Economist 18–20 Feb2,11834%40%16%11%6%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 15–17 Feb1,00334%37%21%8%3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 Feb2,46932%41%16%11%9%
Populus The Times 1–3 Feb1,50431%40%17%12%9%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 30–31 Jan1,01232%37%21%10%5%
ComRes The Independent 25–27 Jan1,00330%38%17%15%8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–23 Jan1,99233%41%16%10%8%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–22 Jan2,04538%37%16%9%1%
ICM The Guardian 18–20 Jan1,00935%37%20%8%2%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Jan2,13933%43%14%11%10%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 9–10 Jan1,01133%40%18%9%7%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 9–10 Jan1,00632%42%15%11%10%
Populus The Times 4–6 Jan1,50933%37%19%11%4%

2007

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 18–19 Dec1,03434%39%18%9%5%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 17–19 Dec2,06031%43%16%11%12%
18 Dec Nick Clegg becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
ComRes[permanent dead link] The Independent 14–16 Dec1,00430%41%16%12%11%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Dec1,48132%45%14%10%13%
Populus The Times 7–9 Dec1,50632%40%16%11%8%
Ipsos MORI N/A 29 Nov-7 Dec1,85935%42%14%9%7%
ICM[permanent dead link] News of the World 28–29 Nov1,01130%41%19%10%11%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–29 Nov4,00432%43%14%11%11%
Ipsos MORI N/A 23–27 Nov1,93332%41%17%10%9%
ComRes[permanent dead link] The Independent 23–25 Nov1,00927%41%18%15%13%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 21–22 Nov1,00531%37%21%10%6%
YouGov Channel 4 News 21–22 Nov1,60032%41%14%13%9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–16 Nov1,98335%41%13%11%6%
ICM[permanent dead link] Sunday Express 8–10 Nov1,00135%43%15%7%8%
Populus The Times 2–4 Nov1,50337%36%16%11%1%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 31 Oct-1 Nov1,01335%40%13%12%5%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Guardian 26–28 Oct1,01135%40%18%7%5%
ComRes[permanent dead link] The Independent 26–28 Oct1,00233%42%15%10%8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–24 Oct2,10538%41%11%10%3%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 18–23 Oct1,98741%40%13%6%1%
ICM[permanent dead link] The Sunday Telegraph 10–11 Oct1,01036%43%14%8%7%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 10 Oct1,00738%41%11%10%3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 5–6 Oct1,75738%41%11%10%3%
Populus The Times 5–7 Oct1,00840%38%12%10%2%
YouGov Channel 4 News 3–4 Oct1,74140%36%13%11%4%
ICM The Guardian 3–4 Oct1,00838%38%16%8%Tie
Populus The Times 2–3 Oct1,00039%36%15%10%3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–28 Sep2,16543%32%15%10%11%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 27–28 Sep1,00041%34%16%9%7%
Populus The Times 26–27 Sep1,00241%31%17%10%10%
Ipsos MORI N/A 20–26 Sep1,96444%31%15%10%13%
YouGov Channel 4 News 24–25 Sep1,34144%33%13%11%11%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 20–22 Sep1,00942%34%14%10%8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 19–21 Sep2,08539%33%16%12%6%
ICM Sunday Mirror 19–20 Sep1,02939%33%19%9%6%
ICM The Guardian 13–16 Sep1,00540%32%20%8%8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Sep1,94239%34%15%12%5%
ComRes[permanent dead link] The Independent 11–12 Sep1,00537%34%15%14%3%
Populus The Times 31 Aug-2 Sep1,50637%36%18%9%1%
YouGov GMTV 29–31 Aug2,15438%35%15%12%3%
ComRes[permanent dead link] The Independent 29–30 Aug1,01635%36%14%14%1%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 23–29 Aug1,94141%36%16%7%5%
Populus Conservative Party 25–28 Aug53037%36%16%10%1%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–28 Aug2,26641%33%14%12%8%
ICM The Guardian 22–23 Aug1,01639%34%18%9%5%
YouGov The Sunday Times 9–10 Aug1,96642%32%14%12%10%
ICM Sunday Mirror 8–10 Aug1,00739%33%18%10%6%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 8–9 Aug53138%33%15%14%5%
Populus The Times 27–29 July1,51139%33%15%13%6%
Communicate[permanent dead link] The Independent 27–29 July1,00637%34%16%14%3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 July1,87741%32%16%11%9%
ICM The Guardian 20–22 July1,00538%32%20%10%6%
YouGov The Sunday Times 19–20 July1,66440%33%15%12%7%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 12–17 July1,91941%35%15%9%6%
ICM Sunday Mirror 4–5 July1,00637%35%17%10%2%
Populus The Times 1 July1,50437%34%18%11%3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 28–29 June1,88638%35%15%12%3%
ICM The Guardian 27–28 June1,00539%35%18%8%4%
27 June Gordon Brown becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Communicate[permanent dead link] The Independent 22–24 June1,00532%37%18%13%5%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 14–20 June1,97039%36%15%10%3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 June1,75335%37%14%14%2%
Populus N/A 1–3 June1,50333%36%17%14%3%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 30–31 May1,01432%37%21%10%5%
Communicate[permanent dead link] The Independent 25–28 May1,00331%35%19%15%4%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–23 May2,05033%39%15%13%6%
ICM The Guardian 18–20 May1,00332%34%21%12%2%
Populus The Times 11–13 May1,50433%37%17%13%4%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 May1,96234%38%15%14%4%
3 May 2007 United Kingdom local elections
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 Apr2,01932%37%18%14%5%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 19–25 Apr1,16331%38%20%11%7%
ICM The Guardian 20–22 Apr1,00530%37%21%12%7%
Populus The Times 13–15 Apr1,50329%37%20%14%8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 4–5 Apr2,21831%39%16%14%8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–28 Mar2,04232%39%17%13%7%
Communicate[permanent dead link] N/A 23–25 Mar1,00231%35%20%14%4%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–22 Mar2,75231%39%16%14%8%
ICM The Guardian 16–18 Mar1,01131%41%18%10%10%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 Mar1,89732%38%16%14%6%
Ipsos MORI N/A 9–15 Mar1,98333%41%17%9%8%
Populus The Times 2–4 Mar1,50930%38%18%14%8%
Communicate[permanent dead link] N/A 23–25 Feb1,00129%40%17%14%11%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 19–21 Feb2,29232%37%17%14%5%
ICM The Guardian 16–18 Feb1,00031%40%19%10%9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 8–9 Feb2,01932%37%18%14%5%
Populus The Times 2–4 Feb1,50933%36%19%12%3%
Ipsos MORI N/A 19–29 Jan94935%39%19%7%4%
Communicate[permanent dead link] N/A 26–28 Jan1,00829%34%21%16%5%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–24 Jan2,24531%38%18%13%7%
ICM The Guardian 19–21 Jan1,00431%37%23%9%6%
Populus The Times 5–7 Jan1,50732%39%18%11%7%

2006

Date(s)
Conducted
Polling Organisation / Client Sample
size
Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
20–22 DecYouGov/Sunday Times1,91832%37%15%15%5%
18–20 DecYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,87433%37%17%13%4%
19–20 DecCommunicate1,00937%36%14%14%1%
15–17 DecICM/The Guardian1,00632%40%18%10%8%
9–12 DecIpsos MORI1,93836%37%18%9%1%
8–10 DecPopulus/The Times1,51333%34%19%14%1%
28–30 NovYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,97932%37%16%15%5%
29–30 NovICM/News of the World1,00631%39%20%10%8%
24–26 NovCommunicate1,00436%34%17%12%2%
17–19 NovICM/The Guardian1,00032%37%22%9%5%
9–14 NovIpsos MORI1,11533%35%20%12%2%
3–5 NovPopulus/The Times1,51033%36%20%11%3%
24–26 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,72232%39%16%13%7%
20–22 OctCommunicate97732%38%14%15%6%
20–22 OctICM/The Guardian1,01929%39%22%9%10%
12–16 OctIpsos MORI/Financial Times1,11337%35%18%10%2%
6–8 OctPopulus/The Times1,51535%36%18%11%1%
4–5 OctICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00532%38%20%10%6%
28–30 SepICM/Sunday Mirror1,02935%36%19%11%1%
27–29 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,84936%36%16%12%Tie
21–22 SepYouGov/Sunday Times1,54633%37%18%12%4%
19–22 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,73331%38%18%13%7%
19–20 SepICM/The Guardian1,06632%36%22%10%4%
13–14 SepICM/Sunday Mirror1,00333%37%21%8%4%
13–14 SepYouGov/The Sun1,51931%38%18%14%7%
6–7 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,50432%40%17%11%8%
31 Aug – 6 SepIpsos MORI/Sunday Times1,18636%35%19%10%1%
1–3 SepPopulus/The Times1,50432%36%20%13%4%
22–24 AugYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,75731%38%18%13%7%
18–20 AugICM/The Guardian1,00731%40%22%8%9%
24–26 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,63333%38%18%11%5%
20–24 JulyIpsos MORI1,89732%36%24%8%4%
21–23 JulyICM/The Guardian1,00135%39%17%9%4%
7–9 JulyPopulus/The Times1,51234%36%19%11%2%
29 June By-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chiselhurst
28–29 JuneICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00335%36%18%11%1%
26–28 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,96233%39%18%10%6%
22–26 JuneIpsos MORI1,93133%36%21%10%3%
21–23 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,00932%39%17%12%7%
16–18 JuneICM/The Guardian1,00532%37%21%9%5%
8–12 JuneIpsos MORI/The Observer1,97534%41%18%7%7%
2–4 JunePopulus/The Times1,50534%37%18%11%3%
25–30 MayIpsos MORI1,98431%41%18%10%10%
23–25 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,10232%38%16%14%6%
19–21 MayICM/The Guardian1,00134%38%20%8%4%
8–9 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,91031%37%17%15%6%
5–7 MayPopulus/The Times1,51630%38%20%11%8%
4 May 2006 United Kingdom local elections
27 Apr-2 MayIpsos MORI/Financial Times1,07832%36%21%11%4%
27–28 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,93032%35%18%15%3%
21–23 AprICM/The Guardian1,00632%34%24%10%2%
20–22 AprIpsos MORI/The Sun1,00630%30%25%15%Tie
18–20 AprYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,07535%33%17%15%2%
31 Mar-2 AprPopulus/The Times1,50336%34%21%10%2%
27–29 MarYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,87336%36%18%10%Tie
16–21 MarIpsos MORI1,15539%34%19%8%5%
16–18 MarICM/Sunday Telegraph1,00337%33%21%9%4%
16–17 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,81135%38%19%8%3%
10–12 MarICM/The Guardian1,00637%34%21%8%3%
3–5 MarPopulus/The Times1,50935%35%20%9% Tie
2 Mar Sir Menzies Campbell becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
21–22 FebYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,01936%38%18%9%2%
16–20 FebIpsos MORI/The Sun1,14338%35%20%7%3%
17–19 FebICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link]1,00234%37%21%8%3%
9–10 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,61739%37%15%10%2%
9 Feb Dunfermline and West Fife by-election
3–5 FebPopulus/The Times1,50836%37%18%9%1%
24–26 JanYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,09640%39%13%9%1%
19–23 JanIpsos MORI1,16338%40%17%5%2%
20–22 JanICM/The Guardian1,00936%37%19%7%1%
12–17 JanIpsos MORI/The Sun54139%39%15%7%Tie
6–8 JanPopulus/The Times1,50939%36%16%9%3%

2005

Date(s)
Conducted
Polling Organisation / Client Sample
size
Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
15–18 DecICM/The Guardian1,00436%37%21%7%1%
13–15 DecYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,07136%38%18%8%2%
9–12 DecMORI/The Observer1,00031%40%20%9%9%
9–11 DecPopulus/The Times1,52138%35%19%8%3%
6–8 DecYouGov/Sunday Times2,08936%37%18%8%1%
7–8 DecICM/The Guardian1,00335%37%21%7%2%
6 Dec David Cameron becomes leader of the Conservative Party
5–6 DecYouGov/Sky News1,61236%36%18%10%Tie
22–24 NovYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,61637%35%20%8%2%
17–22 NovMORI1,08942%32%19%7%10%
18–20 NovICM/The Guardian1,01338%33%19%10%5%
4–6 NovPopulus/The Times1,51240%32%19%9%8%
2–3 NovICM/Sunday Telegraph1,01039%33%21%7%6%
25–27 OctYouGov/Daily Telegraph1,94740%32%19%9%8%
20–25 OctMORI1,90440%34%21%5%6%
19–20 OctICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link]1,00736%33%22%8%3%
7–9 OctPopulus/The Times1,50940%30%21%9%10%
5–6 OctICM/News of the World1,01538%32%22%8%5%
27–29 SepYouGov/Daily Telegraph2,18340%32%20%9%8%
22–26 SepMORI1,13239%29%25%7%10%
16–17 SepICM/The Guardian1,01340%31%21%8%9%
8–9 SepYouGov/Sunday Times1,85637%32%21%10%5%
2–4 SepPopulus/The Times1,50637%35%20%8%2%
19–24 AugYouGov/Daily Telegraph40%33%20%7%7%
11–15 AugMORI1,19139%31%24%6%8%
12–14 AugICM/The Guardian1,00638%31%22%9%7%
26–28 JulyYouGov/Daily Telegraph40%31%21%8%9%
22–24 JulyPopulus/The Times1,50640%28%22%10%12%
14–18 JulyMORI/The Observer1,22741%28%25%6%13%
15–17 JulyICM/The Guardian1,00539%31%23%7%8%
28–30 JuneYouGov/Daily Telegraph3,71738%33%20%9%5%
16–20 JuneMORI1,22742%29%21%8%13%
17–19 JuneICM/The Guardian1,00538%31%23%8%7%
24–26 MayYouGov/Daily Telegraph38%31%23%8%7%
19–23 MayMORI/Financial Times1,27437%30%26%7%7%
5 May2005 general election36.2%33.2%22.7%7.9%3%

See also


Notes


  1. Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (7 October 2007). "Gordon Brown: Why I put off an early election". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  2. Sylvester, Rachel (22 April 2015). "What if... Gordon Brown had called an election in 2007?". Prospect Magazine. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  3. Wintour, Patrick (8 June 2009). "European elections: Labour suffers long, dark night of humiliation". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
  4. Wyburn-Powell, Alun (11 June 2014). "The rise of multi-party politics heightens the chances of a perverse and unrepresentative outcome in next year's General Election" (PDF). Democratic Audit UK. London School of Economics. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
  5. Predicting Results UK Polling Report
  6. Baston, Lewis (18 April 2010). "Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
  7. Barone, Michael (19 April 2010). "The Lib Dems surge in Britain". Washington Examiner.
  8. Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
  9. Wells, Anthony (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
  10. Wells, Anthony (29 January 2010). "YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points". UK Polling Report.
  11. Editorial (20 April 2010). "General election 2010: All change for new politics". The Guardian.
  12. Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 6 May 2010
  13. "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  14. "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
  15. BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.

PThe dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.