Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Irish_general_election

Opinion polling for the 2016 Irish general election

Opinion polling for the 2016 Irish general election

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Numerous polls of support for political parties in Ireland were taken between the 2011 general election and the 2016 general election, held on Friday, 26 February 2016. The article also contains polls taken after the election while a government was being formed.

Two main tables of opinion polls are shown below. The top table lists opinion polls taken in 2016, the election year, and includes all political parties with Dáil representation, plus the Green Party. The second table, for polls from the last general election in 2011 up to 2015, does not break out Renua Ireland or the Social Democrats, which were both founded in 2015.

2016

Color key:

  Exit poll

More information Date, Source/Link ...

Record of Irish political opinion polls published in 2016. Multiple polls published on 16 January, 6 February and 21 February have been averaged.

2011–2015

Graphical summary

Poll results

More information Date, Source/Link ...

Polling Companies

Four companies carry out national and sectoral opinion polls in Ireland. They use different methodologies, which can have a bearing on overall accuracy.

Normally the sample size for a national poll is in the very low thousands with a margin of error of ~ 3%

The methodologies used by the four companies are:

More information Polling Agency, Methodology ...

Footnotes

  1. [N 1]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%
  2. [N 2]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4% .Others also includes 3% who indicated they would vote Independent/Other but were undecided as to precisely whom.
  3. [N 3]
    Millward Brown does not break out Independent Alliance
  4. [N 4]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  5. [N 5]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Workers' Party 1%
  6. [N 6]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%
  7. [N 7]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  8. [N 8]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%
  9. [N 9]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%, Workers' Party 1%
  10. [N 10]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%
  11. [N 11]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  12. [N 12]
    "Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, and Independent Alliance 3%
  13. [N 13]
    Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1% in 2011, they have combined since the 2014 Local Elections, where they ran separately, as the Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Party abbreviated initially as AAA-PBP and latterly as AAA only.
  14. [N 14]
    "Others" includes Social Democrats 2% and Renua 2%
  15. [N 15]
    "Others" includes Social Democrats 1%, Workers' Party 1%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%
  16. [N 16]
    "Others" includes Social Democrats 3%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%
  17. [N 17]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 2%
  18. [N 18]
    "Others" includes Social Democrats 3% and Renua 1%
  19. [N 19]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%, Renua 1% and Social Democrats 1%
  20. [N 20]
    "Others" includes Renua 1%
  21. [N 21]
    "Others" includes Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  22. [N 22]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Renua 2%, Social Democrats 1% and Workers' Party 1%
  23. [N 23]
    "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  24. [N 24]
    "Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  25. [N 25]
    2% reported as Socialist Party
  26. [N 26]
    "Others" includes Renua 1% and Social Democrats 0.5%
  27. [N 27]
    "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 27% reported by RTÉ also included 2% Greens.[p 44])
  28. [N 28]
    "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by RTÉ also included 2% Greens.[p 46])
  29. [N 29]
    "Others" includes Renua (1%) and the Socialist Party (less than 1%). The "Others" figure of 26% reported by RTÉ also included 1% Greens.[p 50])
  30. [N 30]
    Less than 1%, included in "Others"
  31. [N 31]
    "Others" includes Renua 2%
  32. [N 32]
    "Others" includes Renua 2%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by Breaking News also included 2% Greens.[p 53])
  33. [N 33]
    "Others" includes Renua 1% (The reported "others" figure of 30% also included 3% Greens.[p 56])
  34. [N 34]
    The "Others" figure of 24% reported by The Irish Times also included 1% Greens.[p 58])
  35. [N 35]
    "Others" includes 1% for Renua, which had not been named at that point.
  36. [N 36]
    Contested as separate parties
  37. [N 37]
    Others figure of 24% includes 3% for the Green Party
  38. [N 38]
    Less than 1%; included in "Others".[p 89]
  39. [N 39]
    "Independents and other parties" had 19% of the core vote, adjusted to 22% excluding undecided voters. The Green Party was 2 percentage points of the 19% core vote.[p 90]
  40. [N 40]
    Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1%

References

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    2. [p 2]
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    3. [p 3]
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    4. [p 4]
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      "Fianna Fáil Make Major Gains on Fine Gael in Latest Poll (SAMPLING 17/02-18/02)". Sunday Independent. 20 February 2016. Retrieved 20 February 2016.
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      "Opinion poll shows five point increase for Fine Gael". RTÉ. 7 November 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2015.
    34. [P 34]
      McConnell, Daniel (24 October 2015). "Budget bounce for Fine Gael as support at highest level in three years". Irish Independent. Retrieved 24 October 2015.
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      "Support rises for Fine Gael, drops for Labour - poll reveals". RTÉ. 24 October 2015. Retrieved 25 October 2015. Independent and smaller parties are down one point to 27%. ... Within the 27%, the Greens and Renua are on 2%, with the Social Democrats and the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit grouping on 1%.
    36. [P 36]
      "Poll shows drop in support for Fine Gael as Independents, Labour gain". RTÉ. 17 October 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
    37. [P 37]
      "Coalition lacks enough support to retain power". Irish Times. 23 September 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2015.
    38. [P 38]
      "Opinion poll suggests increase in Govt support". RTÉ. 12 September 2015. Retrieved 12 September 2015.
    39. [P 39]
      "Poll suggests support for Labour Party at its lowest in nine months". RTÉ. 15 August 2015. Retrieved 15 August 2015.
    40. [P 40]
      "Significant drop in support for Fine Gael - poll". RTÉ. 2 August 2015. Retrieved 15 August 2015.
    41. [P 41]
      "Support for Independents rises in latest poll". RTÉ. 26 July 2015. Retrieved 27 July 2015.
    42. [P 42]
      "Poll finds significant increase in support for Independents and smaller parties". RTÉ. 18 July 2015. Retrieved 19 July 2015.
    43. [P 43]
      "Polls indicate drop in support for Labour and Sinn Féin". RTE. 27 June 2015. Retrieved 2 July 2015.
    44. [P 44]
      "General Election Opinion Poll - 28th June 2015" (PDF). Red C Research & Marketing Ltd. 28 June 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 July 2015. Retrieved 2 July 2015.The date shown in our table, 24 June 2015, was the last day of polling.
    45. [P 45]
      "Significant increase in support for Fianna Fáil in latest opinion poll". RTÉ News. 20 June 2015. Retrieved 21 December 2015.
    46. [P 46]
      Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes, June 2015 Opinion Poll, 5th - 15th June 2015, prepared for the Sunday Times, prepared by Ian McShane, J.6535 (PDF). Behaviour & Attitudes, Ireland. June 2015. Retrieved 21 June 2015. Note: the 1% figure for Renua is from a table (on the second of two pages 16 in this document:) whose other figures match the Unadjusted table (on the first of two pages 8 in this document:); the figures published by RTÉ correspond to the Adjusted table (on the first of two pages 10 in this document:), which has no figure for Renua.
    47. [P 47]
      "Poll shows growth in support for Government parties". Irish Examiner. 30 May 2015. Retrieved 21 December 2015.
    48. [P 48]
      Collins, Stephen (18 May 2015). "Poll bounce for Fine Gael as support continues to rise". The Irish Times. Retrieved 21 December 2015.
    49. [P 49]
      "Poll suggests drop in Govt parties support". RTÉ.ie. 25 April 2015.
    50. [P 50]
      "General Election Opinion Poll - 26th April 2015" (PDF). Red C Research & Marketing Ltd. 26 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 July 2015. Retrieved 2 July 2015.
    51. [P 51]
      "Drop in support for SF and Independents - poll". RTÉ.ie. 4 April 2015.
    52. [P 52]
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    53. [P 53]
      "General Election Opinion Poll - 29th March 2015" (PDF). Red C Research & Marketing Ltd. 29 March 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 July 2015. Retrieved 2 July 2015.
    54. [P 54]
      "Fine Gael support bounces back after 12-year low in last poll". The Irish Times. 26 March 2015.
    55. [P 55]
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    56. [P 56]
      "No gain for Government in latest opinion poll". RTÉ.ie. 21 February 2015.
    57. [P 57]
      "Support for Independents falls sharply in Millward Brown poll". The Irish Times. 15 February 2015.
    58. [P 58]
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    59. [P 59]
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    60. [P 60]
      "Government parties are up FIVE POINTS in the first poll of the year". TheJournal.ie. 14 January 2015. Retrieved 26 January 2015. The Paddy Power/Red C survey was carried out on behalf of RTÉ's Sean O'Rourke programme. ... The poll was conducted by phone among 1,002 voters between Monday and Tuesday of this week.
    61. [P 61]
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    67. [P 67]
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    68. [P 68]
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    100. [P ..0]
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