Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election

Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

Summary of New Zealand political polling (2014–2017)

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.[1]

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 20 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.
Summary poll results for political parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

More information Date, Poll ...

Internal polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

More information Date, Poll ...

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls from 2015 to September 2017. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

More information Poll, Date ...

Electorate polling

Ōhāriu

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Waiariki

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

More information Poll, Date ...

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Whangarei

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Te Tai Hauāuru

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Te Tai Tonga

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Hauraki-Waikato

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Tāmaki Makaurau

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Te Tai Tokerau

Party vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Candidate vote

More information Poll, Date ...

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Māori retains Waiariki, Labour retains Te Tai Tokerau, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[143] Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

More information Party, Newshub 13–20 Sep 2017 poll [final] ...
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. [N 1]
    These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. [N 2]
    For the Internet MANA party vote alliance.
  3. [N 3]
    The Herald's forecasted numbers are the medians of all likely outcomes for that party. The sum of the parties' forecasted seats does not necessarily equal the total likely seats in Parliament. In this table, "Seats in Parliament" is calculated by adding the number of forecast overhang seats to 120, even if the individual parties' seat projections do not add up to this number.
  4. [N 4]
    Stuff's projected numbers add up to 119, but this outcome is impossible. Calculation (based on exact percentage) shows that 120th and last seat would be allocated to Labour. Taking into account that the polling average have three significant figures it is not possible to decide which party get the last seat.

New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.[150][151]

See also

Notes

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      NZ Election Prediction
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    This article uses material from the Wikipedia article Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election, and is written by contributors. Text is available under a CC BY-SA 4.0 International License; additional terms may apply. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.