Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election

Political polling of voting intentions in a UK parliament election (2017–2019)


Prior to the 2019 United Kingdom general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Opinion polling about attitudes to the leaders of various political parties can be found in a separate article.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 8 June 2017, to the 2019 general election. The election was held on 12 December 2019.

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, since its 18 seats were not contested by the political parties standing for election in the rest of the United Kingdom.

Graphical summaries

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted in the lead up to the 2019 UK general election using a 15-poll moving average. As discussed below, most of these polls do not include Northern Ireland. The larger circles at the end represent the actual results of the election.

  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  Brexit Party
  SNP & Plaid Cymru
  Greens
  Independent Group for Change
  UKIP
Polling for the 2019 UK general election campaign period (6 November 2019 onwards).
  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  Brexit Party
  SNP & Plaid Cymru
  Greens

National poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. Most pollsters only include responses from within Great Britain, excluding Northern Ireland. However, some, such as Survation, do include Northern Ireland. The table below indicates whether a poll is Great Britain (GB)-only or United Kingdom (UK)-wide.

The campaigning period officially began on 6 November 2019.[1]

The various polls use a variety of methodologies. For example, in Kantar and Ipsos MORI polls, Change UK and the Brexit Party were spontaneous responses and not prompted by the pollster.[2][3] In YouGov polls before June 2019, only the Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats were prompted, the names of other parties being listed when "other" was selected.[4] YouGov polls conducted since June 2019 prompt for both the Greens and the Brexit Party, alongside the earlier list.[5] BMG polls also use two-stage questions in which the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, the Brexit Party, the Greens, SNP, and Plaid Cymru are included on the initial prompt and the remaining parties provided after "another party" is selected. Prior to August 2019, BMG did not prompt the Brexit Party and the Greens initially.[6]

As the parties standing for each seat became known (including the 11 November announcement that the Brexit Party would not be contesting the 317 seats won by the Conservatives in 2017) the major pollsters began listing only those standing in a respondent's constituency as options.[7]

2019

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2018

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2017

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Seat predictions

Most polls are reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters do not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons. Other organisations including Electoral Calculus make rolling projections based on an aggregate of publicly available polls.

A small number of large polls have been carried out in order to run multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) models, which output predictions for each constituency.[24]

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Nations and Regions polling

Scotland

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Wales

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Northern Ireland

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London

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North East England

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North West England

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Yorkshire and the Humber

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East Midlands

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West Midlands

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East of England

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South East England

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South West England

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Multiple constituencies

Number Cruncher Politics polled adults living in the 60 English marginal constituencies with a Labour or Conservative majority of less than five per cent. 2017 results are for the same 60 seats.

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Constituency polling

Note that where the client is a political party, constituency level polling may be particularly susceptible to publication bias.[34]

East Midlands

Gedling

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East of England

Cambridge

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South Cambridgeshire

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South East Cambridgeshire

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South West Hertfordshire

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London

Carshalton and Wallington

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Chelsea and Fulham

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Chingford and Woodford Green

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Cities of London and Westminster

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Finchley and Golders Green

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Hendon

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Kensington

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Putney

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Richmond Park

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Wimbledon

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North East England

Berwick-upon-Tweed

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Stockton South

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North West England

Southport

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Workington

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South East England

Beaconsfield

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Esher and Walton

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Guildford

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Portsmouth South

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Reading West

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Wokingham

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South West England

Bath

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North East Somerset

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Wales

Wrexham

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West Midlands

Warwick and Leamington

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Yorkshire and the Humber

Great Grimsby

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See also

Notes

  1. This poll does not feature constituency prompting.
  2. Question specified an election taking place in October
  3. Including the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin with 1%
  4. Including the British National Party with 1%
  5. Including the Women's Equality Party with 1%
  6. Including Alliance, Democratic Unionist Party, Social Democratic and Labour Party and Sinn Féin with 1%
  7. Including the Democratic Unionist Party with 2%
  8. A significant number of MPs changed parties during the 2017–2019 Parliament.
  9. Independent with 0.3%; SDP with 0.1%
  10. UKIP with 1.5%; rejected ballots with 0.2%

References

  1. "Johnson says he had 'no choice' over election". BBC News. 6 November 2019. Archived from the original on 6 November 2019. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
  2. Luke Taylor (14 May 2019). "Latest Brexit Barometer: Labour 9 points ahead of Conservatives". Kantar. Archived from the original on 25 May 2019. Retrieved 31 May 2019.
  3. Gideon Skinner; Glenn Gottfried; Cameron Garrett; Keiran Pedley (21 March 2019). "Worst public satisfaction ratings for any government since John Major". Ipsos MORI. Archived from the original on 31 May 2019. Retrieved 31 May 2019.
  4. Anthony Wells (31 May 2019). "Here's how we prompt for the Brexit Party, and why it's more accurate". YouGov. Archived from the original on 31 May 2019. Retrieved 31 May 2019.
  5. Matt Chorley (7 June 2019). "Brexit Party increases lead as Tories struggle". The Times. Archived from the original on 7 June 2019. Retrieved 7 June 2019. The emergence of new political forces has prompted YouGov to adapt the way it runs its surveys. The Brexit Party and the Green Party are now included when asking for voting intention alongside the established parties such as the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru. YouGov carried out testing this week and found similar levels of support regardless of method used.
  6. "Poll tracker: How popular are the Westminster political parties?". BBC News. BMG Research. 4 October 2019. Archived from the original on 6 October 2019. Retrieved 6 October 2019.
  7. Walker, Ben (27 November 2019). "The Brexit Party's pullout demonstrates a problem for pollsters". New Statesman. Archived from the original on 27 November 2019. Retrieved 27 November 2019.
  8. "UKIP leader Richard Braine resigns after three months in the job". BBC News. 30 October 2019. Archived from the original on 31 October 2019. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  9. "UKIP: Richard Braine elected as party leader". BBC News. 10 August 2019. Archived from the original on 13 August 2019. Retrieved 14 August 2019.
  10. "By-elections since the 2017 General Election". UK Parliament. Archived from the original on 26 June 2019. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  11. "Lib Dems: Jo Swinson elected new leader". BBC News. 22 July 2019. Archived from the original on 22 July 2019. Retrieved 22 July 2019.
  12. "Change UK loses six of its 11 MPs". BBC News. 4 June 2019. Archived from the original on 4 June 2019. Retrieved 4 June 2019.
  13. "European elections 2019: Polls take place across the UK". BBC News. 23 May 2019. Archived from the original on 23 May 2019. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  14. "England local elections 2019". BBC News. Archived from the original on 28 May 2019. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  15. "Northern Ireland local elections 2019". BBC News. Archived from the original on 17 May 2019. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  16. "Independent Group: Three MPs quit Tory party to join". BBC News. 20 February 2019. Archived from the original on 30 November 2019. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  17. "Brexit Party registration with The Electoral Commission". The Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 11 May 2019. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  18. "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Archived from the original on 29 September 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  19. "Jonathan Bartley and Sian Berry elected Green Party co-leaders". BBC. 4 September 2018. Archived from the original on 12 April 2019. Retrieved 31 October 2019.
  20. "England local elections 2018". BBC News. Archived from the original on 7 December 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  21. "UKIP confirms Gerard Batten as new leader". Sky News. 14 April 2018. Archived from the original on 10 October 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  22. "Henry Bolton elected UKIP leader". BBC News. 29 September 2017. Archived from the original on 29 September 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  23. "Vince Cable is new Lib Dem leader". BBC News. 20 July 2017. Archived from the original on 20 July 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  24. "YouGov UK General Election MRP Estimates – February 2019" (PDF). YouGov. 11 February 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 February 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
  25. This was a UK-wide poll, and the number of participants in Scotland was not recorded.
  26. "Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Tory leader citing Brexit and family". The Guardian. 29 August 2019. Archived from the original on 3 September 2019. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  27. "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 18 November 2017. Archived from the original on 7 April 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2017.
  28. "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Archived from the original on 27 May 2019. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  29. "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Archived from the original on 27 May 2019. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  30. "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Archived from the original on 6 September 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  31. "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Archived from the original on 28 October 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  32. Aontú (1.2%), People Before Profit (0.9%) and the Conservative Party (0.7%) outpolled the Greens despite not being measured separately in pre-election polling.
  33. "Mary Lou McDonald confirmed as new leader of Sinn Féin". Irish Times. 20 January 2018. Archived from the original on 10 July 2018. Retrieved 4 August 2019.
  34. Wells, Anthony. "Lib Dem private polls again". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 9 December 2019.

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