Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election


In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Following the passage of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020, the election will be for the newly named Senedd and will be the first Welsh election which includes 16 and 17 year olds in the electoral franchise. Furthermore, since January 2020 most opinion polls have also included this data set to reflect the enfranchisement in the next election.[1]

Under the Wales Act 2017 it is scheduled to take place on 6 May 2021.[2]

Constituency vote


The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the Senedd election.

Poll results
Pollster Client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid
Cymru
Lib Dem Abolish Reform UK[lower-alpha 1] Green UKIP Other Lead
2021 election 6 May 2021 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 3.2% 13.8%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–4 May 2021 1,071 36% 29% 20% 3% 2% 4% 2% 1% 2% 7%
Savanta ComRes N/A 29 Apr4 May 2021 1,002 36% 28% 18% 6% 3% 3% 6% 8%
Savanta ComRes N/A 23–28 Apr 2021 1,002 36% 27% 19% 5% 4% 4% 1% 0% 4% 9%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Apr 2021 1,142 35% 24% 24% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 11%
Opinium Sky News 9–19 Apr 2021 2,005 40% 30% 19% 4% 7% 10%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–19 Mar 2021 1,174 32% 30% 23% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 1% 2%
YouGov Wales Online 19–22 Feb 2021 1,004 33% 28% 22% 4% 3% 4% 4% 1% 0% 5%
ICM BBC Wales 28 Jan21 Feb 2021 1,001 39% 24% 24% 4% 1% 1% 2% 4% 15%
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 11–14 Jan 2021 1,018 34% 26% 22% 4% 5% 6% 0% 4% 8%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 26–30 Oct 2020 1,013 38% 27% 20% 3% 5% 3% 0% 4% 11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Aug4 Sep 2020 1,110 34% 29% 24% 3% 2% 4% 3% 0% 1% 5%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29 May1 Jun 2020 1,021 34% 31% 22% 5% 1% 3% 3% 0% 1% 3%
Survation Centre for Welsh Studies 22–31 May 2020 1,051 40% 26% 18% 7% 8% 2% 14%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Apr 2020 1,008 31% 38% 19% 4% 1% 4% 3% 0% 0% 7%
ICM BBC Wales 4–22 Feb 2020 1,000 31% 31% 26% 6% 2% 2% 2% 1% Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 20–26 Jan 2020 1,037 33% 35% 19% 5% 1% 4% 3% 0% 1% 2%
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 6–9 Dec 2019 1,020 33% 31% 18% 7% 1% 7% 3% 0% 0% 2%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 25–28 Nov 2019 1,116 32% 26% 20% 7% 1% 11% 4% 0% 0% 6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 31 Oct4 Nov 2019 1,136 27% 24% 21% 10% 1% 14% 4% 0% 0% 3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 10–14 Oct 2019 1,032 25% 23% 22% 11% 1% 15% 4% 0% 0% 2%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 23–26 Jul 2019 1,071 21% 19% 24% 12% 19% 4% 2% 3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–20 May 2019 1,009 25% 17% 24% 9% 1% 17% 5% 1% 0% 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 31% 23% 24% 6% 1% 3% 1% 7% 0% 7%
ICM BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 2019 1,000 34% 23% 27% 7% 2% 5% 2% 7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 2019 1,025 32% 26% 23% 8% 1% 3% 7% 2% 6%
Sky Data Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 2018 1,014 42% 26% 22% 3% 2% 4% 1% 16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[4][5]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Dec 2018 1,024 40% 25% 20% 7% 1% 2% 5% 0% 15%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Oct2 Nov 2018 1,031 38% 28% 19% 6% 1% 1% 6% 1% 10%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[6]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[7]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[8]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Jun2 Jul 2018 1,031 38% 28% 21% 6% 1% 1% 4% 1% 10%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 12–15 Mar 2018 1,015 39% 28% 22% 4% 1% 1% 5% 0% 11%
ICM BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 2018 1,001 40% 22% 24% 6% 1% 5% 2% 16%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[9]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 21–24 Nov 2017 1,016 43% 26% 19% 5% 1% 2% 4% 1% 17%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[10]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Sep 2017 1,011 43% 25% 19% 5% 1% 1% 4% 0% 18%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29–31 May 2017 1,014 42% 26% 19% 6% 1% 1% 5% 0% 16%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 May 2017 1,025 40% 27% 20% 6% 0% 2% 5% 1% 13%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 5–7 May 2017 1,018 33% 33% 20% 7% 1% 2% 3% 1% Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–21 Apr 2017 1,029 29% 30% 22% 8% 1% 1% 8% 1% 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 3–6 Jan 2017 1,034 31% 25% 21% 8% 1% 2% 12% 0% 6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Sep 2016 1,001 34% 24% 20% 6% 1% 2% 13% 0% 10%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Jun4 Jul 2016 1,010 32% 19% 23% 7% 1% 1% 16% 0% 9%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 May2 Jun 2016 1,017 34% 18% 23% 7% 1% 2% 15% 0% 11%
2016 election results[11] 5 May 2016 34.7% 21.2% 20.5% 7.7% 2.5% 12.5% 1.0% 13.6%

Regional vote


The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Senedd election.

Poll results
Pollster Client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid
Cymru
Abolish Lib Dem Green Reform UK[lower-alpha 1] UKIP Other Lead
2021 election 6 May 2021 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 3.7% 4.3% 4.4% 1.1% 1.6% 2.9% 11.1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–4 May 2021 1,071 31% 25% 21% 7% 4% 5% 2% 3% 1% 6%
Savanta ComRes N/A 29 Apr4 May 2021 1,002 32% 25% 19% 6% 5% 5% 3% 6% 7%
Savanta ComRes N/A 23–28 Apr 2021 1,002 31% 24% 21% 8% 5% 3% 3% 5% 7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Apr 2021 1,142 33% 22% 23% 7% 4% 5% 6% 10%
Opinium Sky News 9–19 Apr 2021 2,005 38% 27% 19% 4% 5% 2% 5% 11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–19 Mar 2021 1,174 31% 28% 22% 7% 4% 3% 1% 1% 2% [lower-alpha 2] 3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 2021 1,004 29% 25% 24% 9% 2% 5% 3% 2% 3% 4%
ICM BBC Wales 28 Jan21 Feb 2021 1,001 37% 22% 22% 4% 3% 3% 4% 6% 15%
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 11–14 Jan 2021 1,018 30% 25% 23% 7% 4% 5% 4% 1% 5%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 26–30 Oct 2020 1,013 33% 24% 20% 7% 4% 4% 5% 2% 9%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Aug4 Sep 2020 1,110 33% 27% 23% 4% 3% 4% 4% 2% 6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29 May1 Jun 2020 1,021 32% 28% 24% 4% 5% 4% 3% 1% 4%
Survation Centre for Welsh Studies 22–31 May 2020 1,051 36% 23% 22% 7% 10% 2% 13%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Apr 2020 1,008 29% 37% 18% 3% 4% 3% 4% 0% 2% 8%
ICM BBC Wales 4–22 Feb 2020 1,000 31% 29% 25% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 20–26 Jan 2020 1,037 32% 32% 19% 3% 5% 3% 0% 5% Tie
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 6–9 Dec 2019 1,020 32% 28% 19% 2% 6% 4% 7% 0% 1% 4%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 25–28 Nov 2019 1,116 29% 26% 21% 2% 7% 4% 9% 0% 0% 3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 31 Oct4 Nov 2019 1,136 23% 23% 21% 4% 9% 5% 13% 1% 1% Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 10–14 Oct 2019 1,032 23% 22% 21% 3% 10% 5% 14% 1% 0% 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 23–26 Jul 2019 1,071 19% 18% 23% 12% 4% 17% 7% 4%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–20 May 2019 1,009 21% 12% 22% 3% 7% 8% 23% 1% 1% 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 28% 20% 22% 3% 5% 3% 6% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 3] 6%
ICM BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 2019 1,000 32% 22% 25% 6% 3% 6% 6% 7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 2019 1,025 29% 24% 23% 4% 6% 4% 6% 4%[lower-alpha 4] 5%
Sky Data Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 2018 1,014 39% 23% 22% 7% 2% 2% 4% 1% 16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[4][5]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Dec 2018 1,024 36% 24% 20% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3%[lower-alpha 5] 12%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Oct2 Nov 2018 1,031 37% 26% 18% 3% 6% 4% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 3] 11%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[6]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[7]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[8]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Jun2 Jul 2018 1,031 37% 25% 22% 3% 5% 3% 5% 1%[lower-alpha 3] 12%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 12–15 Mar 2018 1,015 36% 27% 21% 3% 4% 3% 6% 1%[lower-alpha 3] 9%
ICM BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 2018 1,001 36% 21% 22% 6% 2% 8% 3% 14%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[9]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 21–24 Nov 2017 1,016 38% 27% 18% 2% 5% 3% 4% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 11%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[10]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Sep 2017 1,011 40% 23% 19% 3% 5% 3% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 7] 17%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29–31 May 2017 1,014 38% 27% 17% 3% 6% 2% 6% 2%[lower-alpha 8] 11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 May 2017 1,025 37% 26% 19% 3% 5% 3% 5% 1% 11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 5–7 May 2017 1,018 31% 32% 20% 3% 6% 3% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 8] 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–21 Apr 2017 1,029 27% 28% 20% 3% 6% 5% 9% 2%[lower-alpha 3] 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 3–6 Jan 2017 1,034 28% 22% 20% 4% 7% 2% 14% 1% 6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Sep 2016 1,001 29% 22% 21% 4% 6% 3% 13% 3%[lower-alpha 9] 7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Jun4 Jul 2016 1,010 29% 18% 24% 3% 6% 4% 15% 3%[lower-alpha 10] 5%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 May2 Jun 2016 1,017 32% 18% 21% 4% 6% 4% 14% 0% 11%
2016 election 5 May 2016 31.5% 18.8% 20.8% 4.4% 6.5% 3.0% 13.0% 2.1% 10.6%

Leadership polling


Seat projections


Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.

Pollster Client(s)/Publisher(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid
Cymru
Abolish Lib Dem Reform UK[lower-alpha 1] Green UKIP Other Majority
2021 election 6 May 2021 30 16 13 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Apr 2021 1,142 27 14 15 3 1 0 4 short
Opinium Sky News 9–19 Apr 2021 2,005 29 19 10 1 1 2 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–19 Mar 2021 1,174 22 19 14 4 1 0 9 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 2021 1,004 24 16 14 5 1 0 7 short
ICM BBC Wales 28 Jan21 Feb 2021 1,001 30 13 15 1 1 1 short
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 11–14 Jan 2021 1,018 26 16 15 2 1 0 5 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 26–30 Oct 2020 1,013 28 16 11 4 1 0 3 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Aug4 Sep 2020 1,110 25 19 15 1 0 6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29 May1 Jun 2020 1,021 25 19 15 1 0 6 short
Survation Centre for Welsh Studies 22–31 May 2020 1,051 29 13 12 1 5 2 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Apr 2020 1,008 23 26 10 1 0 5 short
ICM BBC Wales 4–22 Feb 2020 1,000 21 20 18 1 0 10 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 20–26 Jan 2020 1,037 24 22 13 1 0 7 short
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 6–9 Dec 2019 1,020 25 19 11 1 4 6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 25–28 Nov 2019 1,116 25 17 12 1 5 6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 31 Oct4 Nov 2019 1,136 18 18 15 2 7 Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 10–14 Oct 2019 1,032 18 14 13 6 9 13 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 23–26 Jul 2019 1,071 17 11 15 7 10 14 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–20 May 2019 1,009 20 7 13 2 13 5 11 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 23 15 16 1 4 1 8 short
ICM BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 2019 1,000 25 14 19 1 1 6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 2019 1,025 23 17 16 2 2 8 short
Sky Data Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 2018 1,014 29 13 14 2 1 1 2 short
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[4][5]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Dec 2018 1,024 29 16 13 1 1 2 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Oct2 Nov 2018 1,031 29 18 11 1 1 2 short
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[6]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[7]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[8]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Jun2 Jul 2018 1,031 28 15 15 1 1 3 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 12–15 Mar 2018 1,015 28 17 13 1 1 3 short
ICM BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 2018 1,001 30 13 15 1 1 1 short
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[9]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 21–24 Nov 2017 1,016 30 18 10 1 1 1 short
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[10]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Sep 2017 1,011 31 16 11 1 1 2
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–21 Apr 2017 1,029 21 18 14 2 5 10 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 3–6 Jan 2017 1,034 22 14 14 2 8 9 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Sep 2016 1,001 26 14 12 1 7 5 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Jun4 Jul 2016 1,010 25 11 15 1 8 6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 May2 Jun 2016 1,017 27 11 14 1 7 4 short
2016 election 5 May 2016 29 11 12 1 7 2 short

See also


Notes


  1. Known as the Brexit Party from 2018 until January 2021.
  2. Including Propel with 1%
  3. Including the Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  4. Including the Socialist Labour Party and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  5. Including the BNP and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  6. Including the Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  7. Including the BNP with 1%
  8. Including the Socialist Labour Party with 1%
  9. Including the Welsh Christian Party, BNP and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  10. Including the Welsh Christian Party and Communist Party of Britain with 1%

References


  1. "16 and 17 year olds get right to vote - a historic day for democracy in Wales". Senedd Cymru. 27 November 2019. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
  2. "Wales Act 2017" (PDF). Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  3. "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Retrieved 24 January 2021.
  4. "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  5. "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  6. "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  7. "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  8. "UKIP Wales members elect Gareth Bennett as assembly leader". BBC News. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  9. "Jack Sargeant wins Alyn and Deeside by-election". BBC News. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  10. "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  11. https://senedd.wales/research%20documents/16-30-2016%20assembly%20election%20results/16-030-web-english.pdf