Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election


In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Following the passage of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020, the election will be for the newly named Senedd and will be the first Welsh election which includes 16 and 17 year olds in the electoral franchise. Furthermore, since January 2020 most opinion polls have also included this data set to reflect the enfranchisement in the next election.[1]

Under the Wales Act 2017 it is scheduled to take place on 6 May 2021.[2]

Graphical summary


The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.

Graph of the evolution of the opinion polls for the 2021 Welsh Parliament election (the right border represents the last possible day for the election to be held). Lines represent local regressions (LOESS) with a span of 0.5.

Constituency vote


The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the Senedd election.

Poll results
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client(s) Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid
Cymru
UKIP Lib Dem Green AWAP Brexit Other Lead
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,021 34% 31% 22% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3%
22–31 May 2020 Survation Centre for Welsh Studies 1,051 40% 26% 18% 7% 8% 2% 14%
4–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,008 31% 38% 19% 4% 3% 4% 0% 7%
4–22 Feb 2020 ICM BBC Wales 1,000 31% 31% 26% 2% 6% 2% 2% 1% Tie
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,037 33% 35% 19% 0% 5% 3% 4% 1% 2%
6–9 Dec 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,020 33% 31% 18% 0% 7% 3% 1% 7% 0% 2%
25–28 Nov 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,116 32% 26% 20% 0% 7% 4% 1% 11% 0% 6%
31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,136 27% 24% 21% 0% 10% 4% 1% 14% 0% 3%
10–14 Oct 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,032 25% 23% 22% 0% 11% 4% 1% 15% 0% 2%
23–26 Jul 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,071 21% 19% 24% 12% 4% 19% 2% 3%
16–20 May 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,009 25% 17% 24% 1% 9% 5% 1% 17% 0% 1%
2–5 Apr 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 31% 23% 24% 7% 6% 1% 1% 3% 0% 7%
7–23 Feb 2019 ICM BBC Wales 1,000 34% 23% 27% 5% 7% 2% 2% 7%
19–22 Feb 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 32% 26% 23% 7% 8% 3% 1% 2% 6%
7–14 Dec 2018 Sky Data Cardiff University 1,014 42% 26% 22% 4% 3% 2% 1% 16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4]
4–7 Dec 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,024 40% 25% 20% 5% 7% 2% 1% 0% 15%
30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 38% 28% 19% 6% 6% 1% 1% 1% 10%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7]
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 38% 28% 21% 4% 6% 1% 1% 1% 10%
12–15 Mar 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,015 39% 28% 22% 5% 4% 1% 1% 0% 11%
8–25 Feb 2018 ICM BBC Wales 1,001 40% 22% 24% 5% 6% 1% 2% 16%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[8]
21–24 Nov 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,016 43% 26% 19% 4% 5% 2% 1% 1% 17%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9]
4–7 Sep 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,011 43% 25% 19% 4% 5% 1% 1% 0% 18%
29–31 May 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,014 42% 26% 19% 5% 6% 1% 1% 0% 16%
18–21 May 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 40% 27% 20% 5% 6% 2% 0% 1% 13%
5–7 May 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,018 33% 33% 20% 3% 7% 2% 1% 1% Tie
19–21 Apr 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,029 29% 30% 22% 8% 8% 1% 1% 1% 1%
3–6 Jan 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,034 31% 25% 21% 12% 8% 2% 1% 0% 6%
18–21 Sep 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,001 34% 24% 20% 13% 6% 2% 1% 0% 10%
30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,010 32% 19% 23% 16% 7% 1% 1% 0% 9%
30 May – 2 Jun 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,017 34% 18% 23% 15% 7% 2% 1% 0% 11%
5 May 2016 2016 election 34.7% 21.2% 20.5% 12.5% 7.7% 2.5% 1.0% 13.6%

Regional vote


The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Senedd election.

Poll results
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client(s) Sample
size
Lab Plaid
Cymru
Con UKIP Lib Dem AWAP Green Brexit Other Lead
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,021 32% 24% 28% 5% 4% 4% 3% 1% 4%
22–31 May 2020 Survation Centre for Welsh Studies 1,051 36% 22% 23% 7% 10% 2% 13%
4–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,008 29% 18% 37% 0% 4% 3% 3% 4% 2% 8%
4–22 Feb 2020 ICM BBC Wales 1,000 31% 25% 29% 2% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2%
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,037 32% 19% 32% 0% 5% 3% 3% 5% Tied
6–9 Dec 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,020 32% 19% 28% 0% 6% 2% 4% 7% 1% 4%
25–28 Nov 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,116 29% 21% 26% 0% 7% 2% 4% 9% 0% 3%
31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,136 23% 21% 23% 1% 9% 4% 5% 13% 1% Tied
10–14 Oct 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,032 23% 21% 22% 1% 10% 3% 5% 14% 0% 1%
23–26 Jul 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,071 19% 23% 18% 12% 4% 17% 7% 4%
16–20 May 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,009 21% 22% 12% 1% 7% 3% 8% 23% 1% 1%
2–5 Apr 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 28% 22% 20% 5% 5% 3% 3% 6% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 6%
7–23 Feb 2019 ICM BBC Wales 1,000 32% 25% 22% 6% 6% 3% 6% 7%
19–22 Feb 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 29% 23% 24% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4%[lower-alpha 2] 5%
7–14 Dec 2018 Sky Data Cardiff University 1,014 39% 22% 23% 4% 2% 7% 2% 1% 16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4]
4–7 Dec 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,024 36% 20% 24% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3%[lower-alpha 3] 12%
30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 37% 18% 26% 5% 6% 3% 4% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 11%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7]
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 37% 22% 25% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 1] 12%
12–15 Mar 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,015 36% 21% 27% 6% 4% 3% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 1] 9%
8–25 Feb 2018 ICM BBC Wales 1,001 36% 22% 21% 8% 6% 2% 3% 14%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[8]
21–24 Nov 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,016 38% 18% 27% 4% 5% 2% 3% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 11%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9]
4–7 Sep 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,011 40% 19% 23% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 17%
29–31 May 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,014 38% 17% 27% 6% 6% 3% 2% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 11%
18–21 May 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 37% 19% 26% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 11%
5–7 May 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,018 31% 20% 32% 5% 6% 3% 3% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 1%
19–21 Apr 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,029 27% 20% 28% 9% 6% 3% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 1%
3–6 Jan 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,034 28% 20% 22% 14% 7% 4% 2% 1% 6%
18–21 Sep 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,001 29% 21% 22% 13% 6% 4% 3% 3%[lower-alpha 7] 7%
30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,010 29% 24% 18% 15% 6% 3% 4% 3%[lower-alpha 8] 5%
30 May – 2 Jun 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,017 32% 21% 18% 14% 6% 4% 4% 0% 11%
5 May 2016 2016 election 31.5% 20.8% 18.8% 13.0% 6.5% 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 10.6%

Seat projections


Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.

Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client(s)/Publisher(s) Sample
size
Lab Plaid
Cymru
Con UKIP Lib Dem Green AWAP Brexit
Party
Other Majority
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,021 25 15 19 1 0 6 short
22–31 May 2020 Survation Centre for Welsh Studies 1,051 29 12 13 1 5 2 short
4–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,008 23 10 26 1 0 5 short
4–22 Feb 2020 ICM BBC Wales 1,000 21 18 20 1 0 10 short
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,037 24 13 22 1 0 7 short
6–9 Dec 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,020 25 11 19 1 4 6 short
25–28 Nov 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,116 25 12 17 1 5 6 short
31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,136 18 15 18 2 7 Tied
10–14 Oct 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,032 18 13 14 6 9 13 short
23–26 Jul 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,071 17 15 11 7 10 14 short
16–20 May 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,009 20 13 7 2 5 13 11 short
2–5 Apr 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 23 16 15 1 1 4 8 short
7–23 Feb 2019 ICM BBC Wales 1,000 25 19 14 1 1 6 short
19–22 Feb 2019 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 23 16 17 2 2 8 short
7–14 Dec 2018 Sky Data Cardiff University 1,014 29 14 13 1 1 2 2 short
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4]
4–7 Dec 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,024 29 13 16 1 1 2 short
30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 29 11 18 1 1 2 short
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7]
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 28 15 15 1 1 3 short
12–15 Mar 2018 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,015 28 13 17 1 1 3 short
8–25 Feb 2018 ICM BBC Wales 1,001 30 15 13 1 1 1 short
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[8]
21–24 Nov 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,016 30 10 18 1 1 1 short
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9]
4–7 Sep 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,011 31 11 16 1 1 1
19–21 Apr 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,029 21 14 18 5 2 10 short
3–6 Jan 2017 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,034 22 14 14 8 2 9 short
18–21 Sep 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,001 26 12 14 7 1 5 short
30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,010 25 15 11 8 1 6 short
30 May – 2 Jun 2016 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,017 27 14 11 7 1 4 short
5 May 2016 2016 election 29 12 11 7 1 2 short

See also


Notes


  1. Including the Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  2. Including the Socialist Labour Party and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  3. Including the BNP and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  4. Including the Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  5. Including the BNP with 1%
  6. Including the Socialist Labour Party with 1%
  7. Including the Welsh Christian Party, BNP and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  8. Including the Welsh Christian Party and Communist Party of Britain with 1%

References


  1. "Bill to introduce new name and lower voting age becomes an Act".
  2. "Wales Act 2017" (PDF). Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  3. "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  4. "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  5. "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  6. "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  7. "UKIP Wales members elect Gareth Bennett as assembly leader". BBC News. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  8. "Jack Sargeant wins Alyn and Deeside by-election". BBC News. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  9. "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.